After no UFC and very little MMA in general last week, we're back with a pretty big event as the UFC makes it's debut in Paris, France. This card is kind of strange as it takes a few really good fights and pairs them with a few decent fights and then a lot of really low level bouts. I'm not complaining about it, but it is just a very odd structure. In my opinion, the best way to construct a card is to have a steady build with each fight getting progressively higher level (doesn't necessarily translate to a better fight) until you cap it off with a good main event. This card feels like it has very hard lines between the levels and not a steady progression where each fight is just one step up from the previous. Regardless, this should end up being a pretty decent afternoon of action and I'm ready for it. Of course, the week off has me excited, but still couldn't get me to start typing this at a decent hour so, in for another late night. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom.
Stephanie Egger defeats Ailin Perez Result: Egger by sub (1-0)
We start out the night with a bit of a strange matchup as we see Ailin Perez making her UFC debut against UFC veteran Stephanie Egger making a quick turnaround after her mystery tap out loss in her last fight. Perez is a hard fighter to fully grade, at least for someone with my level of experience taping fights, because her level of competition is just so low. Her striking seems very under developed and raw, even for her experience level. I have a hard time believing that she would be able to out strike many women in the UFC in a 15 minute kickboxing match. Her grappling is her route to victory in all of her fights and is certainly the stronger part of her game. Even then, I don't know that she's any more than average and even that may be a stretch. She seems a little limited in her takedown variety and likes to work in the clinch to get to body lock style takedowns. On top, she seems fine, but again, nothing special. She gets a lot of submissions, but her level of competition doesn't seem to be a good measuring stick to even the lowest level of the UFC roster. She is willing to be active and attempting submissions and throwing ground and pound, so if she can get on top, she can be effective there, but that is really her only path in this fight and any fight until she makes drastic improvements in her standup game. Egger is the much more proven commodity here and I think she should be able to win this fight at a pretty high rate. Her striking also isn't great, but at least I've seen her against real competition. She's a grappler as well and a pretty reliable one. You won't mistake her for Tatiana Suarez, but she's a pretty solid wrestler overall. She's going to attempt takedowns and get them at a very nice rate of 46%. Egger just has the more proven skill set, so I have to go her way here. We know that her cardio should hold up as well. There's so many questions surrounding Perez that picking her would only be a guess. We don't know much about how she really defends anything. She could be really hittable on the feet or she could be really poor fighting off of her back. She could also be really good off of her back and submit Egger from her guard. I have to go Egger's way until we see Perez against some legitimate competition.
Bets to consider: Perez ML +210, O2.5 total rounds +112
This is a tough fight to play and my best advice would probably be to pass unless you're more confident in a read or know more about Perez in all of the things we haven't seen in her available fights. To play the money line, it almost has to be the Perez side. Stephanie Egger isn't the type of fighter that I could trust at -300 against almost anyone, so if you just auto-bet Perez, I would fully understand. The problem with that is that Perez needs the fight to be grounded and that is also Egger's best area. I think there are probably as many scenarios where Egger looks -500 as scenarios where Perez covers her price. There's just so little we know about Perez's game that playing her is more of a fade of Egger than anything else. The only other moderately interesting spot is over 2.5 rounds. This would be a pure play of the percentages than anything based on this fight at all. Seeing a women's MMA fight with an over at plus money is something that catches the eye, but I wouldn't really be looking to lay anything hefty on it. If you just want to take a small shot on it, I think that is fine because it isn't like Egger is a prolific finisher, but you're risking that Perez is competent off of her back or can work back up. There's also the possibility that Perez has some nasty submissions from her guard that we just don't know about. If you're just looking to take small shot, then that is at least a spot to look.
Khalid Taha defeats Cristian Quinonez Result: Quinonez by KO (1-1)
This is another fight that is a little weird. Taha hasn't had a ton of success in the UFC, but this is certainly a step down in competition and I kind of like him in this spot. It generally goes against my typical process of picking winners though, so I don't feel as confident as I would like. Taha is a lower volume striker and he doesn't wrestle offensively very much, but he has some pretty serious power for 135 lbs. I think the step down in competition will help him out here a lot and that he will find the knockout at some point. Taha doesn't have great takedown defense, more so just ok, but he is defensively responsible on the ground at least. Quinonez doesn't have as much experience and this is probably his biggest test to date. He does generally do some good things as well. He's an ok wrestler and I guess I wouldn't be shocked if he were able to get takedowns and control this fight from the top, but I kind of don't really expect that to happen either. Quinonez is going to throw his strikes with more volume, which is what does worry me a bit. He is also generally pretty aggressive, which will help in the optics if this fight does get to the scorecards. The reason I ultimately went with Taha here is that Quinonez doesn't defend strikes particularly well and has been finished multiple times in his career. If Quinonez is going to take as many shots as he normally does, that won't end well for him with Taha's power. I just feel that Taha finds the knockout blow at some point, but if it goes to decision, it may end up being a pretty close one.
Bets to consider: Taha by KO +420
The money line situation is a little too close for me to really have any interest in either side. I think the fight is just generally pretty close and with Quinonez only being at +104, that isn't really off enough for me to have any interest. For me, the path to victory for Taha in this fight is by knockout, so to see that all the way at +420, I think that would be the way to play him. The under 2.5 is currently at +152, which is fine, but I don't really know that Quinonez has a ton of finishing upside, so you're just left hoping for a Taha KO there as well. I don't think there is a particularly great way to play Quinonez to be honest. I suppose to get him by points at +190 may be his best look, but even that is just sort of ok. If Quinonez does win, I think it will be by decision, so if you like him, you could get that extra value instead of just taking his money line, but I think the Taha side by KO is the play on this one if you're looking for one.
Benoit St. Denis defeats Gabriel Miranda Result: St. Denis by KO (2-1)
The string of weird fights keeps rolling right along as we get Gabriel Miranda making his UFC debut. To be completely honest, I really couldn't find a whole lot on Miranda, but from what I can see, he seems to be a pretty aggressive grappler and goes all out for submissions early on. That does at least make him moderately dangerous in this one, at least early, but I have way too many questions about his game to actually pick him. St. Denis is a guy that I'm still a little unsure of as well, but what he is reliable to do is probably enough to get him a win in most cases. He isn't particularly amazing on the feet, but he isn't completely awful either. He was way too hittable in his debut, but he did show that he is extremely tough and can take a punch. He throws output with passable volume, but nothing other worldly or even above average. St. Denis is more of a grappler himself and seems to be a pretty solid one. He attempts takedowns reliably and, while not the best wrestler, he's persistent enough that he is eventually going to get some at his current level of competition. St. Denis pushes a pretty high pace with his takedown attempts, while mixing in the striking, which I think will be Miranda's undoing. Miranda comes out so fast and puts everything he has into trying to get that early submission that I don't really know that he can keep up with St. Denis late. It is possible that Miranda can actually get that early submission, but St. Denis has never been finished. After Miranda slows down, St. Denis should be able to really put it on him pace wise and maybe even get a late finish if Miranda completely gasses. I suppose Miranda could make for a competitive first round, but over the second half of this fight, St. Denis should do just fine and pick up a win.
Bets to consider: O1.5 total rounds -112
This is another really tough fight to bet. If you're catching onto the theme of this card, we're getting a lot of favorites who I don't love in a vacuum, but the underdogs have so much unknowns that playing them is nothing more than a dart throw with some hope behind it. On one hand, I don't think I have any interest in backing St. Denis at -265, but I also can't bet Miranda knowing that he is basically limited to a first round submission either. Even then, Miranda round 1 is only +750, which I don't really think is that great of a look. I guess the only thing I would even suggest to look at is the over 1.5 rounds. Neither of these guys has ever been finished, so I don't really expect them to get finished here, at least while they have gas in the tank. The problem will be St. Denis' pace with Miranda's cardio. I feel good that they can make it out of the first, so the question becomes where Miranda can hold up for half of the second round. If you woke up feeling dangerous, maybe that's the way to play this one. You could also try to take a shot at St. Denis round 2 at +500 or round 3 at +750 if you want. I don't think that is the worst way to go either.
Nassourdine Imavov defeats Joaquin Buckley Result: Imavov by decision (3-1)
We have a really interesting fight finally and it is one of the better ones on the entire card. Despite being a sizable underdog, Buckley comes into this fight as the more well known fighter due to his viral spinning knockout and coming to the cage with the TikTok self defense guy in his corner. Buckley is a very entertaining fighter to watch, but it feels like his style has a bit of a ceiling to it. He comes forward and throws big shots with big power on them. His game sort of relies on that to get him a lot of wins and his power is very legitimate, so it has worked for him quite often. Looking at the stats, he doesn't get hit a ton overall, but he has a tendency to get a bit wild when entering the pocket and leaves himself open at times. He sometimes wrestles a little bit and he's not the worst grappler in the world, but he isn't really anything special there. He only gets takedowns at a 35% rate and is just an average defensive wrestler at 64%. Imavov is a guy who is primarily a striker as well. He's a very technical striker who does throw with pretty decent volume on average. He does a pretty good job of limiting the damage that comes back his way as well. He doesn't have the most power and really isn't going to wow you in many ways, but he really fights in a way that makes things simple. He hits the other guy as much as possible while getting hit as little as possible. He's not much of an offensive wrestler, but he does have a very solid 72% takedown defense, so he should be able to keep it standing. The one worry on the Imavov side is that Buckley will probably be the stronger fighter and Imavov has had an issue getting stuck in the clinch, so if Buckley can hold him there, that could be a problem. However, I think when Buckley gets reckless and crashes into the pocket, Imavov will be ready to punish him on the counters and that will likely be the story of the fight.
Bets to consider: Buckley ML +205
This is another tough one because while I do like Imavov as a favorite here, I'm not interested at -260. At +205, I do think Buckley is the side here if you're looking to play it. Buckley is going to be aggressive and he is the one with the potential to get takedowns, so I think he can make this fight closer than the line suggests. With his power, it isn't ridiculous to think that he could find a knockout as well. +200 or better for Buckley I think is a reasonable number to play, even though I do like Imavov to win this fight more often than not. I just think his cleaner technical striking is going to be a major problem when Buckley tries to close the distance. I'm not really interested in Imavov KO at only +200 though. There just doesn't really seem to be enough there to really entice me.
Michal Figlak defeats Fares Ziam Result: Ziam by decision (3-2)
We have another fighter making their UFC debut, this time in the form of Michal Figlak. Figlak isn't really that interesting to talk about in the best way possible. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but he has a really solid base in all aspects, at least from what I've seen of him. There's really not much that I can say about him negatively other than that he lacks a really high end skill or attribute. His striking is decent. He's going to come forward and throw strikes with good volume. He doesn't have noteworthy power, but you have to respect it at the same time. He is also a pretty solid grappler. He wrestles at a decent level and looks pretty good from top position. I wouldn't say he is especially dangerous, but he throws ground and pound, while mixing in submission attempts pretty well. His cardio seems to hold up just fine and he hasn't shown any issues with his durability either. He's just a really solid well rounded fighter. Where that leaves his ceiling remains to be seen, but I think this is a solid spot for him. Fares Ziam is a very technical striker. He will be the more technical striker here without any question. The problem is that he is extremely low volume and virtually only wants to fight from the outside. This is the style of fighter who I just fail to understand because it's like they intentionally try to make getting wins as hard as possible for themselves. They have the skill to win in theory, but they are so willing to accept the back foot and they just don't really do anything. Ziam doesn't wrestle and isn't an especially great grappler once he's down. He has ok takedown defense, but once he's down, he's been very easy to control and can be submitted. Even if he stays upright, his back is going to be against the cage and he's going to be very behind on the striking totals. He isn't the only guy who fights like this, but a common trait in a lot of fighters who have this low volume style is that they are big power punchers who are just looking for that one shot, but Ziam doesn't really have that either. His best shot to win is essentially a really close 29-28 split decision.
Bets to consider: Figlak ML -188
If you're a returning reader, you know I'm not really one to lay big juiced money lines, but I think this is a spot for it. Doing so against an 8-0 fighter making their debut is a bit of a risk, but as long as Figlak doesn't get overwhelmed by the moment, I really don't see a reason that he shouldn't be ok here. I've seen some really smart people that I have respect for on the Ziam side and I actually just don't really get it. I understand seeing someone making their debut with limited experience who lacks a real stand out trait being -188 and just looking to the other side, but in this case, I think Ziam's win condition is so narrow that it isn't really justified at around +150, at least in my opinion. In my head, a Ziam win probably looks like a fight where he's moving backwards the whole time, but occasionally lands a counter that actually lands clean. So he is landing the cleaner shots and the judges prefer that even though Figlak is landing with more volume and being the aggressor. I suppose that is possible, but given Figlak having all of the grappling potential, I don't see how that gives value to the Ziam side. Even if Figlak doesn't attempt a single takedown, I'm getting the fighter who is going to be moving forward and consistently landing more frequently. I still wouldn't have interest in Ziam landing fade away counter hooks with little power and his back against the cage, but maybe I'm just an idiot. I have bet Cruz and Usman the last two cards so, me being an idiot is an option as well.
Abus Magomedov defeats Dustin Stoltzfus Result: Magomedov by KO (4-2)
We continue to theme of fighters making their debut by getting Abus Magomedov in this one. He seems to be a pretty solid fighter in my opinion. He brings a nice wrestling skill set, but he isn't as aggressive in attempting takedowns as you may expect given his name. He wrestles when he has to or feels like he needs to more so than that being his primary game plan. If the opportunity presents itself, he seems to be plenty good enough to take it, but he won't force the issue in the grappling necessarily. On the feet, he seems solid as well. He looks to have pretty good power and can keep his opponent at the range he wants them at so he can use a variety of both punches and kicks. The one worry is that he isn't exactly low volume, but he doesn't push much of a pace at times either. It isn't anywhere close to Ziam like I just talked about before, but he really isn't a guy who is just going to come out and put it on someone for the full 15 minutes either. Stoltzfus is a guy that just doesn't really seem to have solid footing in the UFC. He isn't necessarily a bad fighter, but he just lacks the ability to overcome someone who has an advantage over him. He's also a low volume striker and he doesn't have a ton of power to go with it. He doesn't defend strikes spectacularly and we've seen him hurt before. He is a better grappler, but his wrestling is just sort of average. He does have a solid submission game, which could be his best path here, but I don't really expect him to have the wrestling success to put himself in a good position for one. He could be fine in terms of keeping up with the striking volume, but he'll be way behind in terms of technical skill and power, so I think this is a pretty nice spot for Magomedov in his debut.
Bets to consider: Magomedov by KO +270
No surprise, another really tough fight to bet. This card really isn't giving a ton of fantastic spots to play and this fight is no different. My best guess is that Magomedov can really do whatever he wants on the feet and is a good enough wrestler to keep the fight standing. Stoltzfus really presents no danger to him standing, so he'll be able to feel comfortable and go for the knockout. With his power, I think he can probably find it if he connects flush. With that said, I don't feel great about it because he could also opt to wrestle and just control him. The money line has no value as getting close to -300 against someone in their debut isn't a game I'm interested in playing and if the tape is right, Stoltzfus will be at a big disadvantage here, so I don't really have any interest in him either. Just another pass spot more than likely.
Charles Jourdain defeats Nathaniel Wood Result: Wood by decision (4-3)
This is one of the best fights on the card and will be a strong contender for fight of the night in all likelihood. Jourdain is a guy who wants to stand and strike. He's very dynamic when he does and is seriously dangerous. He has good power in his hands and can mix in some really nice kicks as well. He can even mix in a sneaky submission here and there, but I wouldn't read too much into that. His big weakness has been that he doesn't defend takedowns particularly well, but he does have a pretty solid ability to create scrambles and work his way back up, at least historically. Wood is a little more well rounded and I think that will help him here. He's also more of a striker though, so that is likely where this one will play out. Much like Jourdain, Wood is going to be willing to engage and throw strikes with heavy volume. Wood once fought at bantamweight, so he doesn't quite bring the power Jourdain does, but he does have more grappling ability. Wood is actually a pretty decent wrestler, he just doesn't really go to it much. The path to victory for him is to go wrestling heavy, but he's just never really done that kind of thing. With a huge live crowd and the potential to have a crazy war and get a bonus, I don't know that he will go that route here. The concern on the Wood side is that he hasn't always had the most reliable chin and coming a up a weight class may only exacerbate the issue. Jourdain has really nice power for the division as well, so if this fight gets crazy, like it probably will, I'm not sure that Wood's chin is going to get him to a decision. I lean Jourdain slightly because of it, but it's pretty close.
Bets to consider: Jourdain finish only -182, Wood ML +118
Even though this fight is so close, I actually think there are some spots to play if you're so inclined. In terms of overall striking, where most of this fight should play out, I think the two are largely pretty even. The dynamic to swing it in Jourdain's direction is his power and Wood's chin plus him moving up in weight. The thing that swings it in Wood's direction is the potential for him to wrestle and win rounds from top position. That more or less suggests a fight that should be considered even and if you're getting Wood at +118, I don't mind someone playing that at all. If he does come out with a grappling heavy gameplan, he should probably be lined as a slight favorite. I also like the Jourdain finish only at -182 as I think he has a vast majority of the finishing upside here. I've mentioned his power and how Wood is moving up and had durability questions even at bantamweight multiple times now. Add onto that the fact that Jourdain has only been finished once and I think that gives Jourdain a huge percentage of the finishing upside. Jourdain has never been knocked out and only submitted once, so I don't see Wood as a huge finishing threat in this one. I think either of those would be a really solid place to look.
William Gomis defeats Jarno Errens Result: Gomis by decision (5-3)
What better way to introduce the UFC to France than to have two more fighters making their debut against each other in a low level fight on the main card. Luckily, there was actually decent amounts of video of these guys, so I have something to say more than some of the other debuting fighters. Errens is a moderately technical striker overall. He doesn't necessarily push a high pace, but he at least fights with a noticeable pace, which is something. I don't think his power is really anything out of the ordinary, but he has something there as well. The problem with Errens game is that his is consistently exposed in the grappling. He doesn't defend takedowns well at all and is pretty content to fight off of his back. He will at least attempt submissions from guard, but I don't think his BJJ is anything special and he really doesn't have a sense of urgency to try and get up, so he ends up being controlled for long stretches at a time. On the feet, Gomis really isn't anything special either. I wouldn't say that he isn't technical, but it isn't really a plus part of his game either. He is on the lower output side of the spectrum, maybe average at best, but he does do a solid job of defending strikes, so he isn't taking a ton of damage. He really likes to get into the clinch and from there, he will get takedowns. Ultimately, that is what will decide the fight in my opinion as Gomis is pretty reliable to attempt takedowns and he is very solid from top position. I wouldn't say he's especially dangerous there, but he will throw ground and pound and take the submission attempt if his opponent gives it to him. This could be more or less even standing, but Gomis will likely get takedowns at some point and he should be able to either control the fight there or potentially even get a finish.
Bets to consider: Gomis ML -200
Read carefully. Do not bet this fight. This really isn't the fight to lose money on, at least in my opinion. To me, there's just too much guessing that needs to be done with these guys and we've never really seen them on a stage like this, so this is one where I just want to watch it play out and take stock in both men before I look to play them in a fight. With that said, If I was being held at gunpoint and was forced to make a bet on this fight, I think I would rather lay the chalk on Gomis. He's pretty reliable to wrestle and Errens just doesn't stop takedowns, so that seems like the most likely outcome of this fight to me. I don't have a feel for whether Gomis just grinds him out or gets a late finish, so just let this fight go. Your wallet and sanity will thank you.
John Makdessi defeats Nasrat Haqparast Result: Haqparast by decision (5-4)
This fight may very well end up being a strange one and I could be updating this Sunday looking very bad for this pick, but here I am. Makdessi has been around for awhile and is starting to get up there in age now, so that has a lot of people writing him off, but I think he has a real shot here. Makdessi just is not a skill set that is very fun to fight against. He has great takedown defense, so he keeps the fight standing and then he throws with really good volume while at range. He pumps out a ton of output and can do so from kicking range and boxing range. He's reasonably technical and does a pretty solid defensively. He has a 69% striking defense, so keep that in mind. The issue with him is that he has been brutally knocked out on a couple of occasions and as he gets older, that becomes even more of a concern. He's also a bit undersized as well, which forces him to close the distance and potentially expose himself to those big shots. Haqparast is also pretty much purely a striker, who also throws with pretty good volume. Haqparast will probably have the power advantage, but I do think Makdessi will be a tad faster. If Haqparast can clip, Makdessi is certainly live to go down, but if he doesn't, I think this fight will be pretty close and I think Makdessi will throw a little more volume and will be a little more technical. He could get flatlined, but I think he wins a close decision here.
Bets to consider: Makdessi ML +172, Haqparast by KO +280
The betting lines on this card have been pretty tough, so I have no idea how they came to the conclusions they did on this fight. The lines just really don't make any sense to me at all. So we have a fight where both men are primarily strikers with little chance for grappling and both are very reliable to throw with very high volume. One guy is a little more technical while being a little quicker, while the other is a little longer with a slight edge in power. I don't understand how that results in one guy being +170, unless the one fighter has absolutely nuclear power, which Haqparast does not. I can already hear people bringing up how Makdessi's durability is gone and the power of Haqparast has to be heavily accounted for. While that may end up being the outcome, I think it is misplaced emphasis. While Makdessi's knockout losses were very ugly, there's only two of them in his career and they both came by high kick. I don't think 2 knockouts over a 15 year career makes someone a durability concern. On top of that, Haqparast throws virtually 0 kicks. Where this really goes off the rails is that if you think the threat of a Haqparast KO is significant enough to push his line all the way out to -215, then why is the fight goes the distance lined at -210? I don't really understand how this dynamic works. To say this another way, I just don't fully understand what a fight looks like where Haqparast looks like a legitimate -215 favorite or better where this fight goes to decision at a high rate. For Haqparast to look -215 or better, in my opinion, he almost has to get the knockout, However, the FGTD line says that this fight is going to decision a vast majority of the time. If this fight is indeed going to decision 68% of the time, I don't see how Haqparast could possibly look like that big of a favorite. If this fight is going to decision, I think it will be a pretty close fight. If you like Haqparast, I would much rather have him at his knockout prop at +280 than have to sweat out a split decision at -215, but that's just me. I just don't see what a Haqparast clean 30-27 win looks like. For him to fight at the level to get that type of outcome, he probably knocks him out before we get to the scorecards.
Alessio Di Chirico defeats Roman Kopylov Result: Kopylov by KO (5-5)
The farther I go into this card, I just come upon fight after fight where I wonder how it got made and why it is happening. This doesn't disappoint in just being another very strange fight, especially to put on a main card. This could very well end up being the worst fight on the card entertainment wise as well, which is always great. Di Chirico is a very low output striker when on the feet. He's kind of flashed power in moments, but nothing consistent enough to really say too much beyond that. He has also been a decent wrestler at times over his career. He lands takedowns at a 45% rate and gets just over 1.5 per 15 minutes. The problem there is that he doesn't have the best top control game, which minimizes the effectiveness of actually getting those takedowns. Kopylov is a lot of the same on the feet. He's very low output, but he is probably the more technical guy ever so slightly. He has also flashed power in moments, but nothing with regularity. Kopylov doesn't wrestle offensively, but he does have pretty good takedown defense overall at 83%. The one weakness in his game is what he looks like when he does get taken down. He has not looked very good when he is on his back and is pretty content to just lay on his back and hope the round ends. He has been controlled in the past and doesn't really have much urgency to attempt submissions from guard or work back to his feet. The problem in general in this fight is that both fighters are so unreliable and inconsistent. Sometimes they're aggressive and sometimes they're not. Sometimes it changes from round to round. Sometimes Di Chirico just doesn't wrestle. Sometimes Kopylov looks like he has power and other times he doesn't. Ultimately, I went with Di Chirico for his grappling upside. If it stays striking, it's probably even with a slight lean to Kopylov based on technical ability. I don't know man. This is going to be an ugly one.
Bets to consider: FGTD -160
This fight is currently even at -110 for each and that is probably correct. I can't justify playing either because it is genuinely difficult to project which version of each fighter we'll see come fight time. I think the one thing we can rely on is the fight to be very low paced when they're on the feet, so I think getting the fight goes the distance at -160 is worth a look. I don't want to waist any more time thinking about this fight, so I'm just moving on.
Robert Whittaker defeats Marvin Vettori Result: Whittaker by decision (6-5)
No shocker here. If you're new here, Robert Whittaker is my favorite active fighter, so I'm not going to pick against him now. If you're looking for an extended breakdown, I did a full length one a couple of days ago, so go read that for more detail. In short, Marvin Vettori is really solid all around. He's a decent boxer who throws with good volume. His power is average at best, but he has been connecting more solid recently against Hermansson and Costa. He is a solid grappler as well and can wrestle both defensively and offensively. He has good cardio, great durability, and is always willing to come forward. Robert Whittaker is an extremely talented striker. He has great footwork, really good speed and agility, and is very technically sound. He is the more diverse striker and has a signature high kick that he goes to often. He is really good wrestling defensively and has made strides towards adding offensive wrestling to his game more recently. He has good cardio and a good chin as well, even though some think his durability may be starting to fade. Rob has really good takedown defense, so I don't really expect Marvin to have any wrestling success and even if he were to get him down, I expect Rob to work his way up without too much of an issue. On the feet, Vettori is good when his opponent is there to be hit and he can just walk them down like a zombie. Robert Whittaker is simply not going to do that. He's going to use his footwork and slide laterally to control the range and dictate when the exchanges happen and how long they last. I think Rob is more technical, more diverse, and faster. Vettori typically has good volume, but I just don't expect Rob to be there when Vettori lets those shots go. I just think this is a really good matchup for Whittaker and think he wins this one at a pretty high rate.
Bets to consider: Whittaker by decision -120
The debate on this fight is something I have found very interesting. A few people who I respect are pretty passionate on the Vettori side and I just can't really wrap my head around the whole thing. I don't really see where Vettori has sustained grappling success. I think Rob is probably equal to Israel Adesanya in takedown defense and Vettori couldn't get Izzy down in their last fight. I think Gastelum is probably an equal wrestler to Vettori and he couldn't get Rob down in their fight. Vettori actually ended up getting reversed by Izzy the one takedown he got and I think Rob is better on the ground than Izzy even if Vettori got him down. That leaves Vettori to win 2 of 3 rounds against Rob in a kickboxing match, which I think is ridiculous. Rob isn't going to be there to be hit and he should be able to just pick Vettori apart without issue in my mind. There's this narrative that Rob's chin is going, which I disagree with as his last 3 wins are over Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, and Kelvin Gastelum, all of whom are more powerful than Vettori. I'm not saying that Vettori is going to get completely outclassed here and get like 30-26'd or something, but I really don't see where he makes this fight any more than marginally competitive either. I get that seeing how well rounded Vettori is and how durable and how he has basically every tool you would want to back with your money is tempting at +180, but Whittaker has the answer for all of it. Vettori will struggle to take him down. Rob will be able to get up if he does. Rob isn't going to stand in front of him to let Vettori throw free volume. At space, Rob is just the better striker technically and he's faster. I don't see how any of that would lead someone to having any degree of confidence in Vettori to make this fight legitimately competitive. If Vettori had the power to get a one shot knockout, then maybe, but he doesn't and Vettori by KO at +1100 suggests as much.
Ciryl Gane defeats Tai Tuivasa Result: Gane by KO (7-5)
Again, did a full preview for this one yesterday, so if you want more detail, then check that out. To keep this brief as it is very early in the morning at this point, Tuivasa basically has to find a knockout in the first two rounds to have a real chance in this one. He's going to come forward and he's got the big power, but he is at a disadvantage almost everywhere. Gane is the better athlete, with better footwork and better speed and agility. He's a more technical and diverse striker as well. Gane doesn't really pursue the wrestling much, but if he got on top of Tai, he could probably finish him by submission or ground and pound. Tai Tuivasa wasn't supposed to be winning many of his last handful of fights, so I'm not going to rule him out, but at the same time, this is really Gane's fight to lose. If he doesn't get clipped early, he can probably win this fight in virtually whatever way he decides he wants to. Don't sleep on Tai though because he has the power to do it and I'm certainly rooting for him.
Bets to consider: Gane round 4, 5, or dec +145
This is another tough fight to bet just because of how the fight should play out. If you want to be on the Tuivasa side, I think the money line is actually the way to go. At +390, I think that is plenty good enough. I know a vast majority of his win equity comes in the form of a knockout, but at +500, there isn't a ton of extra value there to really be had. I would rather take slightly less value than to risk losing that ticket because something weird happens where Tai drops him in 3 rounds and gets a decision win somehow. +390 is plenty of value, so no need to get greedy in my opinion and stay on the right side of variance. However, I'm not really looking to play Tai here even though I like him. The problem with playing Gane is that there's really no good way to get a feel for what he's going to do. He can be content to just coast to a decision win and land jabs and kicks on the outside. Maybe he will go for the knockout. Maybe he shoots and takedown and submits him. Trying to pinpoint a method of victory is almost just guessing really as all options are on the table for him. If I had to find a spot for him, I think 4, 5, or decision is the way. I don't think Gane's power is tremendous for the division and Tai is pretty tough. I think a finish would come late for Gane after Tuivasa gets tired. However, Tai is probably going to come at him pretty aggressively, so he could just get finished by a counter shot early or get taken down and dominated right off the bat. I think Gane is a little too diverse to really pinpoint a method or time frame for him, so I think it is just a pass spot for me.
That's finally it from me on this one. I need to go to bed. What do you guys think of the card? What fight are you looking forward to the most? Leave all of your picks, predictions and bets below. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Egger/Perez O2.5 rounds .5 units at +112 to win .56 units - .5 units
St. Denis/Miranda O1.5 rounds .5 units at -112 to win .45 units - .5 units
Michal Figlak ML 1 unit at -188 to win .53 units - 1 unit
Charles Jourdain Finish Only 1 unit -182 to win .55 units Void
John Makdessi ML .3 units at +172 to win .52 units - .3 units
Di Chirico/Kopylov FGTD .75 units at -160 to win .47 units - .75 units
Robert Whittaker by decision 2 units at -120 to win 1.67 units + 1.67 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 1.38 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 8.58 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 7.20 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 7 - 5
Previous Year to Date Record: 218 - 132
Updated Year to Date Record: 225 - 137
What turned out to be a very nice event with an amazing crowd and atmosphere wasn't so kind to the picks and bets, but I suppose it could have been much worse. The event itself was pretty fun though and even the lower level fights provided entertaining enough bouts for the most part. The crowd was fantastic and as the card started coming to an end, it definitely started to feel like a big deal. Hopefully the UFC returns to France at some point and this will increase the amount of French men and women participating in MMA. Unlocking as many areas for potentially great fighters across the world is still important because MMA is much earlier on in it's growth process than most other sports.
We'll start by going over the losses and I really want to focus on my reads and not the fights themselves as that is for the round up later in the week. My first lost was Khalid Taha after he was knocked out by Christian Quinonez. This wasn't my best read ever, but I wasn't completely off either. My biggest fear was that Quinonez would just be more active and that would cause Taha to fall behind. That is essentially exactly how the fight played out with Taha never really getting close to finding that knockout blow, while Quinonez was using his length and landing his jab pretty consistently. The only thing I didn't really account for was Quinonez getting that early knockout. Taha wasn't someone I had durability concerns with and Quinonez isn't known to have huge power, but he just landed the right punch in the right spot. The way the overall fight was playing out wasn't too surprising, but the finish was more unexpected. My next loss was my worst in awhile. I thought Michal Figlak was going to have Fares Ziam covered and I just generally over estimated where his skills were. I certainly thought Figlak would have the wrestling advantage, which wasn't the case. Even if Ziam could stuff the takedowns, I don't think anyone really foresaw Ziam landing his own and getting so much control and doing a lot of damage from top position. Figlak was at least competing on the feet, but Ziam was just way faster and his counters were landing pretty consistently. Hats off to Ziam though as he really improved since we had seen him last and he looked really good. I think I read Figlak as having around a C or C+ skills everywhere and he was more of D+ to C-. My next loss was Charles Jourdain to Nathaniel Wood and that was much easier to stomach than the last. I don't think I completely missed the boat, but I didn't really think Wood would have as easy of a time on the feet as he did. Wood's more technical striking was much more of an advantage than I anticipated and he was largely able to get the best of Jourdain in a lot of the exchanges. His chin held up just fine too of course. Jourdain had a harder time stopping takedowns than I even thought as well and that same trip was putting him down almost every time. I think this fight had more to do with Wood executing than Jourdain disappointing, but I thought Jourdain's power would have more of an impact and it just didn't. John Makdessi was our next loss at the hands of Nasrat Haqparast and I don't think I was way off, but I wasn't close enough to think it ever really had a chance after the early part of the fight either. When Makdessi came out lower volume and was just getting out boxed, that wasn't a good sign. Haqparast just looked like the clearly better fighter, which I didn't think would happen. Makdessi may have just started to show his age a bit and there's nothing wrong with that. Haqparast was just the sharper boxer, was a little faster, and a little more powerful. He was just the cleaner fighter and I thought we would get a much more competitive looking fight that we ultimately got. Makdessi came on late and had a good final round, but it was way too little too late. Our last loss was the biggest toss up of the card for me and it didn't go our way. Roman Kopylov looked pretty solid early and had a clear speed advantage in the first round. Once he started stuffing Di Chirico's takedowns, it really wasn't looking good, but then Kopylov looked like he was slowing down and Di Chirico was starting to take over. Kopylov must have caught a second wind in the final round though as he found the finish pretty quickly. I'm a little surprised that we got a finish, but certainly not surprised that Kopylov won as that fight was a coin flip the whole way. The Figlak loss was pretty ugly on my part, but besides that, I don't think I was too far off, but, that isn't the game we're playing here.
We ended up above .500 in the picks, so at least there's that. Our first win of the night was Stephanie Egger in a fight that she was just the better fighter in. I think this fight was a bit simple to read since we knew both women were going to grapple and couldn't really do a ton of striking and Egger was far more proven against some legitimate competition. I think most people thought Egger would roll pretty cleanly here and that was largely the case. Benoit St. Denis was our second win and he looked pretty good here, Miranda wasn't his toughest test ever, but he did look moderately dangerous for a little bit. St. Denis has a skill set that is going to get him a lot of wins over low level guys and that is sort of what we saw. Toughness, pace, and well roundedness wins way more fights than one may think and that is what played out in this one. I think my read was largely correct, except St. Denis started doing a lot of damage a little earlier than I expected. Nassourdine Imavov picked up our next win and I thought my read on that one was pretty solid. If anything, I don't think I stressed Imavov's defense enough as his ability to limit damage and evade shots matched up really well with Buckley's big power shots. He was able to avoid being hit for the most part until he slowed down in the last round. He was just sharper on that night and even though he lost the 3rd in my opinion, he comfortably won the first two rounds. Abus Magomedov got us a quick win. It's hard to say exactly how great the read was because the fight lasted only seconds, but the power of Abus and the durability concerns for Stoltzfus definitely were there, so I suppose it was accurate based on the conclusions that we can draw after such a limited look. The William Gomis win is probably the fight I was least interested in, but I think my read was largely correct. They were about even on the feet, but Gomis was able to grapple his way to a win. Our next win was Robert Whittaker and that fight pretty much followed the path I was expecting. Whittaker was just too much on the feet and Vettori couldn't take him down. Whittaker's movement prevented Vettori from getting his volume going and Whittaker's speed advantage was allowing him to land pretty consistently. Finally, Ciryl Gane got us our final win of the night in a pretty fun main event. I was right in that he was able to control the fight from the outside for the most part, but Tai did clip him a couple of times. I gave Tai a bit of a better chance than a lot of people and I thought he knocked him out cold when Gane went down. Tai fought about as well as he could have and landed the shot he needed to, but Gane was just too good.
The final thing to go over is the bets and it wasn't very pretty. If you look above and see all the red, it's really ugly, but luckily winning our biggest bet of the night does limit the damage to a point where it wasn't absolutely horrible. Our first play was one that I didn't feel super confident in, but I thought the number was interesting and that was the O2.5 in the Egger vs Perez fight. Perez wasn't very good, which wasn't unexpected, but having her instantly tap out with less than 10 seconds left before the end of the round was a bit unfortunate. Had she made it to the horn, I liked the odds of getting to the over because it would have taken a little bit for the fight to become grounded again in the third round. Perez seems really limited and I'm not really sure that she's UFC caliber at this stage of things. Hopefully she shows improvement whenever we see her next. We lost the over 1.5 in the St. Denis fight and that one wasn't look very promising after about the 3 minute mark. Miranda was starting to slow down badly even faster than expected and wasn't responding to St. Denis' power very well either. He was basically done at the end of the first round, but just escaped it. Not too long into the second he was hit hard again and then was finished not too long after. St. Denis isn't known for his power, but Miranda just wasn't reacting well to any of his shots, so I admitted defeat on that one well before it was an official L. I already touched on Figlak and it's certainly the worst bet I've made since I started tracking on here and might be the most wrong I've been on a fight in a long time, maybe ever. I don't want to rehash what I said above, but in short, I just overestimated Figlak. He is well rounded, but instead of being a C/C+ all around he's a D+/C- all around. Pair that with Ziam's improved grappling and he was just behind all fight long. My Jourdain finish only voided, so it wasn't a loss at least. I felt that Jourdain had most of the finishing upside in this one and I suppose that held true as I don't remember ever thinking Wood was close to a finish. Jourdain just didn't fight all that well, or at least wasn't at his best and never really had anything that resembled a potential finishing sequence. I took the small shot on John Makdessi, which didn't really work out. I expected him to make this fight competitive and he didn't really do that. He got the last round potentially, at least on one scorecard, but it didn't really matter because he lost the first two pretty cleanly. That was one where I wasn't really banking on winning, but just felt like the line didn't make sense, so that one didn't upset me too much. Di Chirico vs Kopylov goes the distance lost as well, which was a bit unfortunate. It felt like we were on a solid path to winning that one too. Kopylov seemed more dangerous early, but was slowing down. He came out in the third reenergized and put a stamp on the fight right then and there. It was a pretty impressive finish, so at least it was entertaining, but another loss was tough to swallow. Luckily, we were able to win our last bet of the night with Whittaker by decision, but even that got a little hairy. Whittaker was in clear command, but he had moments where it looked like he may finish Vettori, but he never really went all out to finish him, so whenever Vettori was stunned, he was able to recover and make it to the scorecards.
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