The UFC will be making it's debut in France after the country recently legalized the sport. Obviously, the UFC wants to try to capitalize on this new market as quickly as possible and immediately put it's most well known French fighter on the card in the main event. The homecoming will be a great moment for the former interim heavyweight champion, Ciryl Gane, but it will also be an intriguing fight for him as this is his first appearance since losing his interim belt in the unification bout against Francis Ngannou this past January. That was also the first loss of his career and saw him get exposed a bit by an improving Ngannou, so he'll be looking to bounce back into the title picture with a win here. He'll be taking on Tai Tuivasa, who is in the middle of the best run of his career. He's won 5 straight, all by knockout. Heavyweight is a bit messy right now as the top 2 contenders, as well as the champion, are all in a state of flux. Francis Ngannou is still recovering from knee surgery and has his impending contract dispute coming up at the end of the year. Both Stipe Miocic and Jon Jones are sort of unknowns right now. Jon has been away for several years at this point and it doesn't seem like Miocic is really in a hurry to return, if he does at all. That means that this fight could very well be the number one contender fight and we just don't know it yet. With that said up, let's get into it.
Tai Tuivasa comes into this fight as the underdog and slightly lower in the rankings. As I said before, he is in the midst of the best run of his career to date. It comes on the back of a downward trend that almost saw him cut by the UFC after losing three straight to Junior Dos Santos, Blagoy Ivanov, and Serghei Spivac. He turned it around and has picked up five consecutive knockout victories over Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker, Greg Hardy, Augusto Sakai, and, most recently, Derrick Lewis. While all of those matchups are fighters who were willing to give Tai the style of fight he wants, that is still an impressive streak nonetheless. Stylistically, Tuivasa is a bit of a throwback to eras past in the heavyweight division. Tai is at his best when his opponent obliges him in a fire fight where his willingness to exchange and his power can be at the forefront of the fight. He has serious power and this recent streak has seen him put multiple opponents out cold. Tuivasa is the kind of guy who is perfectly content to plant his feet and fight in a phone booth and he excels there. While he is still a brawler at heart, he has progressed in his technical striking ability over the years and has shown a bit of refinement in his game at times. Tuivasa mixes in some solid low kicks when he's fighting from range and I think that is a technique that would really benefit him in this fight if he can find the opportunities to land it. He displayed a more patient and calculated style when he fought Augusto Sakai and he's going to need some of that in this one as well. Gane isn't the kind of fighter who is going to crash into the pocket the way that Derrick Lewis or Greg Hardy were willing to, so Tuivasa will have to be patient and try not to force things too hard. Besides his power, the next best attribute Tuivasa has is his overall willingness to fight. He's a really tough guy who isn't afraid to step into the fire against anyone. He's been hurt at times, so his chin isn't unbreakable, but he won't quit unless he's put out. He took the best shots from Greg Hardy and Derrick Lewis and didn't back down. He went right back into the pocket and ended up eventually finding his own knockout in both of those fights. Tai isn't a perfect fighter however and a lot of his weaknesses come in the grappling realm. He doesn't do any offensive wrestling, which is fine, but his defensive wrestling has been exposed at times in the past. His fight against Serghei Spivac didn't go well for him and he was event taken down by Derrick Lewis in his last fight. This isn't a case of someone who is an ok grappler, but just not a great wrestler either. Tai has been taken advantage of when the fight hits the mat and I get the feeling that if he ends up under Ciryl Gane, then this one may not go well for him. There's also a huge question mark in what Tai's cardio will look like if this fight ends up getting into the 4th and 5th rounds. He's only been a full 15 minutes twice. The first time was a win over Andrei Arlovski and the other, a loss to Blagoy Ivanov. Given his size and fighting style, it is hard to envision Tuivasa maintaining a decent pace late into the fight, but he doesn't really fight in a way that lends itself to fights being extended either. Tuivasa is a little more limited in what tactics he has at his disposal, but it works well for him and I don't think he'll be an easy out in this one for Gane.
Ciryl Gane is making his first appearance since losing to Francis Ngannou in January. Gane had been undefeated until then, so he'll have to bounce back from his first MMA loss. Gane was a guy being billed as the next evolution of the heavyweight division given his incredible speed, agility, and athleticism for his size. He was so early on in his MMA journey that he was improving every time we saw him and the sky really seemed to be the limit for him. He had an impressive early run in the UFC, but he really inserted himself into the title picture when he knocked out Junior Dos Santos at UFC 256 in December of 2020. Wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov positioned him to fight for the title when he was placed into a strange interim title fight against Derrick Lewis that he would win pretty easily. He attempted to unify the belts, but then got exposed a bit by Ngannou. He had early success at range, but then Ngannou turned to his wrestling (that we didn't know he had) and won the final three rounds from top position. Stylistically, Gane is a very smooth outside striker and that is where he will have an advantage over pretty much everyone in heavyweight MMA. Despite his relatively lesser MMA experience, his kickboxing pedigree shows as he just moves differently than most heavyweights. He weights in around 247 lbs recently, but that lower weight serves him just fine. He's so light on his feet and is often just too much in terms of footwork and speed for his opponent to be able to do anything about it. He sometimes falls into a bit of a lull and can be slower paced, especially if he realizes that he's just better than his opponent. Other times, Gane seems determined to make a statement and when he decides he's going to find the finish, he does so pretty consistently. Gane would probably be able to win a lot of fights based just on his technical striking alone. He has a good jab from the outside and supplements that as needed. He mixes in straight lefts as well as left kicks to all three levels. If Gane found it within his game to turn up the aggression consistently, I think he would finish fights pretty easily. He doesn't have tremendous power for heavyweight, but it is still plenty to get knockouts when he can connect flush. Where he lacks in power, he would make up for in technically advanced combinations that could really do damage consistently resulting in late finishes in my opinion. Combining elite level technical striking for heavyweight with elite level athleticism and speed for the division and that is a problem that most just don't have the tools to answer. If that wasn't enough, Gane has shown to have at least respectable submission skills. The weakness that we saw exposed against Francis Ngannou is that Gane appears to be a bit lacking in the wrestling department. He's never shown himself to be a fantastic offensive wrestler as he doesn't shoot very often and even when he has tried to get a takedown, he only lands them at a 22% rate. The problem against Francis is that Gane really struggled to prevent any takedowns. Now, Francis is an incredibly physical guy with great strength, so that helped, but Gane wasn't doing much to stay upright in that fight. I'm sure he's been working on that because he potentially has guys who are all pretty good grapplers on the horizon (Jon Jones, Stipe Miocic, Curtis Blaydes, Ngannou rematch). Fortunately for Gane, he won't have to worry about any wrestling here unless Tuivasa does something really unforeseen. Ciryl Gane is a unique athlete for heavyweight and presents a lot challenges that his opponents won't see in any other matchup.
I'm pretty sure that Tai Tuivasa is as well liked as anyone in MMA right now, so a good bit of the fan base is probably rooting for him. I would be lying if I said I wasn't as well because there's really no reason not to like him. He's a big, fun loving guy who likes to drink beer and puts on crazy fights whenever he has the right matchup. With that said, we all have to realize that Tuivasa is behind the 8-ball here in a pretty big way. Gane has a lot of advantages and the betting odds reflect that. Gane is better technically, he's a better athlete, and has the better all around grappling as well. I'm not convinced the gap is as big as some may lead you to believe, but Gane likely has the cardio advantage as well. This fight will likely come down to whether Tuivasa can work his way inside and do damage there. If he can't and this fight stays on the outside, he's probably in trouble. I think it would really help if Tai could land some of those low kicks to limit Gane's movement, but he really just needs to try to work his way into the pocket and land a bomb once he does. Some people are suggesting that Gane will just control this fight from the outside like he did to Derrick Lewis and while the fight may end up playing out in a similar fashion, I think that comparison is a bit misguided. Derrick Lewis was really content to play the back foot and basically just stand with his back on the fence and get picked apart in that fight. He tried to sucker Gane in and then land a big shot in a brief moment of explosion and when it didn't work, Lewis kind of found his way out of that fight. For better of for worse, that isn't Tai Tuivasa. Tai is going to go for it. For as big as he is, Tai isn't a low output fighter. He generally likes to come forward and force his opponent into the kind of fight that he wants. Now, the most likely scenario is that this fight looks like the first two rounds of Gane vs Ngannou where Gane just kind of moves along the outside of the cage and jabs and kicks Tuivasa for a majority of the fight. I do kind of wonder how long Gane can move like that though. If Tai is really putting the pressure on, I'm not 100% sold that Gane has the cardio to slide laterally for 25 minutes. Gane is at his best when he's the one controlling the range and pace. Tai isn't going to let him control that pace. He's going to come after him and get in his face. If Tuivasa can somehow survive the early going, I do think he could have some success against a more tired version of Gane. If Gane gets to the point where he has to stand in front of Tai, that's a very dangerous place to be. However, Tai is going to have to eat a lot of jabs, kicks, and counters to get there. He has to force Gane to move and work a lot early, which could just as easily drain his own gas tank. Honestly, the easiest path for Gane would be to get the fight grounded if he could, but that might not be worth the energy either. He is very capable of keeping the fight at distance and just out pointing Tuivasa over 25 minutes. If I had make a prediction, I think Gane probably ends up finishing Tuivasa on a counter as Tai tries to close the distance, but he could just jab him up from the outside like he has done to a few fighters before. Tai has a chance because if he connects with a big shot, he can put anyone out, but I think that is largely his only path to winning this one. All things considered, I am interested to watch it play out because Tuivasa has a way of making every fight fun, but he's in for a really tough test in this one.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions? What keys are you watching for? Leave thoughts and comments below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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