Last week I said that I was going to be bringing some more posts about Leon Edwards and contextualizing his win and then talking about what a fluke in MMA is and isn't. I started writing both of them and they just weren't turning out the way I wanted. I was having trouble taking the idea in my head and articulating it in the way that I envisioned, so I ended up scrapping both of them. I'm not really sure why, but the thoughts I was having weren't translating to an interesting and engaging read that flowed logically. We'll pick back up this week with UFC Paris content. We have a strange event as it provides a mix of some really fun and interesting fights with a lot of lower level fights. The co-main event will bring us a really big matchup in the top 5 of the middleweight division as Robert Whittaker makes his first appearance since losing his rematch against Israel Adesanya. He'll be taking on Marvin Vettori in a fight that was originally slated to take place in June, but Whittaker pulled out of that fight with an injury. Vettori is coming off of a win over Paulo Costa and is looking to continue his pursuit of a potential third shot at champion Israel Adesanya (or challenger Alex Pereira). To get this as a co-main on a Fight Night is pretty surprising as this fight is plenty good enough to main event a Fight Night. It's no secret on this blog that Robert Whittaker is my favorite fighter on the roster right now, so just keep that in mind if you're detecting any bias.
The blue corner in this fight will be the slightly lower ranked Vettori, so we'll start with him. Vettori is making his first appearance of 2022 and hasn't fought since last October, so it's been almost a year for him. Vettori is a guy who I have perpetually underrated for a vast majority of his career and I've finally come around and started rating him properly. In years past, I always felt that Vettori would have success on lesser opponents, but then always struggled when getting a step up. His 3 UFC losses have come against Antonio Carlos Junior and twice to Israel Adesanya. After his first loss to Izzy early in their UFC runs, Vettori went on the best run of his career. He had his really big break out win in a main event against Jack Hermansson and that is when I started to give Vettori the respect that he had probably deserved for awhile. He defeated a short notice replacement in Kevin Holland to earn his title shot, but then pretty cleanly lost a decision to Izzy. He returned in a bizarre situation with Paulo Costa in a fight that ended up taking place at 205, but he looked really good in that fight. It could just be the bias from it being the last time we saw him, but I thought that may have been his best performance to date. Vettori's style relies on a lot of his physical traits that a lot of guys in the division just don't really have the tools to answer them with. He's a big, strong guy for weight class. He has pretty good cardio, especially for being a pretty bulky guy. He also has a granite chin and has never been finished in any capacity. I think this is also partially why I underrated him. Vettori's MMA skills are really solid, but nothing is other worldly, which I think is what has held him back from potentially reaching championship status. His striking is probably a bit underrated by people in general. He isn't the most technical guy in the world and it doesn't always look pretty, but he is very effective. His cardio allows him to land strikes at a good right and overall just fight at a high pace. He has pretty good power as well and can afford to step into the pocket if he has to. His chin hasn't failed him, but he is a pretty solid defensive fighter for the most part. Normally, guys with a chin like Vettori aren't afraid to just step into the pocket and trade, but Vettori does a pretty good job of limiting damage by only absorbing 3.48 strikes per minute while defending strikes at a 59% rate. I would say Vettori is probably considered a grappler by most even though he is very well rounded. I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but Vettori's wrestling is pretty good. You're not going to confuse him for Khabib, but he does a good job of attempting and landing takedowns at a very reliable and consistent rate. He averages just over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing them at a very solid 45% rate. He also defends takedowns well at a 76% rate. It's hard to point out an area of weakness in Vettori's game because he is just so well rounded and is pretty capable regardless of where the fight is or how it is going. Rather than traditional weaknesses, Vettori has more limitations. When he's fought an exceptional striker in Israel Adesanya, he's just found himself a step behind (both literally and figuratively). Now, everyone at 185 lbs has been behind on the feet against Izzy, so keep that in mind, but he can be taken advantage of by someone who is extremely high level in one area. He wasn't technical enough to outdo Izzy there, but he was also a step behind in the speed and footwork department. He struggled to corral Adesanya and was left chasing him for a lot for a lot of the fight. He also struggled to get Izzy down in the second fight after his takedown defense improved significantly. Vettori also appeared a bit slow when it came to Izzy's strikes and he really didn't defend the low leg kicks all that well either. In his other UFC loss against Antonio Carlos Junior, he seemed to be a little overwhelmed by someone who could match him skill for skill, but this was a much younger version of Vettori. He also seemed to get a little tired out by someone who was so willing to take the fight to him and push a pace. I don't put too much stock into that since it was so long ago, but there really isn't much else to go on in terms of weaknesses for Marvin. He isn't necessarily the most amazing fighter in any one area, but his combination of skills and attributes makes him a very tough puzzle to solve for even the average ranked opponent. He is very well rounded, doesn't really get tired, and can't be finished. He really demands that his opponent be high level in one area and be ready to fight for the entire 15 or 25 minutes.
Robert Whittaker will be making his second appearance of 2022 and looks to bounce back after losing a title shot rematch against champion Israel Adesanya. Whittaker had a short run at welterweight in the UFC with some mixed results, but he has been tremendous since making the jump up to middleweight. From 2014-2018, Rob went on a 9 fight winning streak, with 8 of those coming at 185 lbs against a pretty impressive list of opponents. His interim title was eventually promoted to undisputed, but he never technically had a successful defense since Yoel Romero missed weight in their rematch. Emergency surgery forced him to pull out of what was supposed to be the first matchup with Adesanya and when he came back for that fight, he didn't fight very well at all. He attempted to replicate what Kelvin Gastelum did against Izzy and gotten beaten up pretty badly before being finished early in the second round. When he returned, he went on a short 3 fight winning streak to get himself back into the title fight. While it was a much better showing from Rob, the result was the same as Izzy was able to retain, this time by a unanimous decision. In terms of their current trend, Whittaker is on similar footing to Vettori as Adesanya is really the only guy who has given them issues in the recent past. Stylistically, we've seen a bit of an evolution on Rob's game over his last few fights. He has steadily improved his offensive wrestling over the last couple of years and he has incorporated it into his fights more and more. He's gotten multiple takedowns against all of his opponent's since the first Adesanya fight except for Jared Cannonier. With that said, I don't really expect him to attempt a ton of takedowns here. His defensive grappling has always been pretty good and I think that will be a major key for him in this one. If he can keep the fight standing, that is where he will want to be. Robert Whittaker on the feet is a really tough customer and that is where he has gotten virtually all of his UFC wins. If it wasn't for Israel Adesanya, we may be looking at Whittaker as a long time champion. His technical striking is really good and he uses a unique in and out style of movement to land his shots and then avoid any damage back. Much like Vettori, Rob does a good job of landing with good volume and power, while simultaneously avoiding damage coming back his way. It does show that Rob used to make welterweight as he has a noticeable speed and agility advantage over a lot of his opponents and it generally gives his opponents a lot of problems. Rob is a diverse striker as well and will use both kicks and punches in combinations, including his signature right high kick that he likes to go to often. I don't expect him to finish this fight due to Vettori's proven durability. Whittaker is also extremely durable as he's only been knocked out twice in his career, with only one of those coming at middleweight. His cardio isn't an issue either and he won't be at a major reach disadvantage in this one like he has been at times in the past. In short, I think Robert Whittaker is the second best middleweight in the division right now. His striking combined with above average speed and agility make him a tough test on the feet. His improving offensive wrestling has rounded out his game nicely. Combine all of that with good cardio and reliable chin and you have another very tough fighter.
I still haven't come up with a perfect formula for this final section, but I think it makes the most sense for this fight to split it into the striking and then grappling. If you couldn't already tell, I think the striking in this fight favors Rob, as it does almost every time that he fights someone who isn't Izzy. I really think the movement is what is going to make the difference here. Rob is a very good technical striker and he should also be faster, so he should be able to land his shots without too much of an issue. As long as Rob can move the way he normally does, I expect him to give Vettori a lot of issues. Vettori does his best work when he can move forward and pump out volume against an opponent who will be there to be hit. Rob is going to move, assuming he's healthy, and won't be standing in front of Marvin and trading with him. In short, I think the way we saw Izzy just beat Vettori is largely what we're going to see Rob try to do in this fight. He'll use a lot of lateral movement and his overall athleticism to out maneuver Vettori and have a much easier time landing his volume. On the feet, Vettori needs to find a way to cut off the cage and pin Rob against the fence. If he can close that distance, I think that will help him a ton. Not only will it allow him to actually connect on his punches, but it will limit Rob's kicks as well. If Vettori can close the distance enough to turn this into a pure boxing match, that will help him tremendously. I know that some people are going with the narrative that Rob's chin is declining, but I don't really think that's true. He's still only had the two knockouts, with the last being three years ago. He's been hurt here and there, but I think all of the fighters who have hurt him have better power than Vettori. Realistically, for Vettori to have sustained success in this fight, he's going to have to incorporate his wrestling. Vettori has to truly mix the martial arts in this one. He can't get caught just striking or just wrestling because Whittaker will be able to deal with that. If he can mix the strikes and takedown attempts together fluidly, that gives him his best chance to win. It feels like he's going to have to get at least a round in his favor in the grappling if he wants to win a decision though. Unless he can hurt Rob, I just can't imagine a scenario where he out strikes him 2 out of 3 rounds. The problem there is that Whittaker has some of the best takedown defense in the division. He has really only been given consistent issues there by Yoel Romero, who wrestled at an Olympic level while being extremely explosive and strong. I don't think Vettori is Romero's equal in wrestling technique, explosiveness, strength, or general athleticism. This just feels like a fight where Vettori is stylistically behind the 8 ball. Even if Vettori can get a takedown, I don't really expect him to be able to hold Rob down for an extended period of time. In general, Vettori's style and process are very conducive to winning minutes, rounds, and fights, but it feels like Rob has an answer for everything he wants to do. On the other side, I don't really think Marvin has answers for Rob's movement, speed, and athletic advantages.
That's it from me on this fight. What do you guys think? How do you see this fight playing out? What are some of the keys that you'll be watching for? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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