We're back this week and we'll have the full post as normal. Last week was very condensed because of my travel schedule, but with all of that behind us, the betting aspect of these posts is back to normal. We're in for what should be a pretty solid Fight Night card. It won't be the best of the year, but we do have a solid night of competition with some solid matchups. Other fights could end up pretty exciting to watch even though they may not be the highest level fight ever. The main event makes this event though as it is as good a Fight Night main event as we've had all year. A win for Arnold Allen may put him firmly as the number one contender for the next shot at Alex Volkanovski's title. At worst, he would be one more win away. Kattar is looking to bounce back after a controversial loss to Josh Emmett and put himself right back into that conversation himself. It should be a great fight and I'm looking forward to it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Christian Rodriguez defeats Joshua Weems Result: Rodriguez by submission (1-0)
To kick off the night, we have a fight that was put together on very short notice after Rodriguez's original opponent pulled out of the fight. Rodriguez is making his second UFC appearance (not counting his Contender Series win) after losing his debut on short notice to Jonathan Pearce. Considering his opponent and him jumping in on short notice, he turned in a pretty impressive performance and it had a lot of people looking forward to seeing him again. Historically, he seems moderately well rounded and can finish fights with strikes and submissions. I don't know that he has any true standout skills, at least in the grander scheme of the UFC landscape, but he looks like the kind of fighter that should be able to put together a very nice run in the UFC. Weems also appeared on Contender Series, but didn't get a contract. At least right now, Weems seems more like the kind of fighter who needs further development on the regional scene before he's able to have success at the UFC level, but this is his opportunity. Weems has an interesting career path as a lot of his finishes have come on the ground and by submission, but he also has a few random boxing matches mixed in. My worry for him is that he has been finished more than a couple of times, so if Rodriguez starts flowing, I'm not sure Weems has the answers for it. Him stepping in on short notice only complicates matters as I assume his cardio won't be up to it's normal level. I don't think I would like Weems' chances with a full camp, but short notice really has him behind the 8 ball here.
Bets to consider: Rodriguez ITD -135
This is a tough fight to bet since we have limited information on both of these fighters against a lower level of competition and one guy is coming in on one week notice. With that said, I think we've seen a lot more from Rodriguez against some better fighters. I really have no interest at -400 for obvious reasons, but if I had to do something, I would say Rodriguez ITD is that something. Taking inside the distance at minus money isn't something I generally recommend, but it could be worth a look here. I really think Rodriguez should have Weems covered here and there is the additional possibility that Weems just death gasses at some point. If Rodriguez pushes a pace, we could see Weems melt at some point over the second half of the fight. Weems has already been a bit susceptible to being finished and have compromised cardio is only going to make it worse. This isn't so inflated that it is completely unplayable, but I don't know that there's a lot of meat on the bone at this number either.
Carlos Mota defeats Cody Durden Result: Durden by decision (1-1)
We have another weird fight here with Mota stepping in on short notice, but I'll lean his way in this one. The real question for me is how compromised will Mota be because he didn't have a camp. If he is close to his full self, I like him in this spot quite a bit. He's a pretty well rounded fighter, but he has some questions. I think his overall defense may be a problem spot. He gets hit a little too much at times and against some more powerful opponents, I could see him getting hurt badly. I'm also a bit skeptical of how good of a defensive grappler he is. He hasn't looked great off of his back, but we've only seen him there briefly and against a low level of competition. Offensively, Mota has shown himself to be pretty dangerous. He's a solid enough striker with legitimate power, especially for flyweight. He's also shown himself to be a competent grappler if he can get to top position. I think he's generally pretty solid, but his cardio hasn't always been the best either. Coming into this fight on a few days notice probably won't help that dynamic. In general, I think Durden is a pretty comparable fighter, although, I would characterize him as a little more of a grappling first kind of guy. His UFC run has just been so hit and miss that it is hard to really predict what we're going to get from him. When he's fresh, he is going to attempt quite a few takedowns and he can strike with solid output and power. He does take too much damage on the feet and he hasn't always had the most reliable chin in the world. The big worry is that it is often the tale of two fights with Durden. He's aggressive and powerful when he's fresh, but he is going to slow down and start to get sloppy at some point and that is when he can be taken advantage of. If Mota was on a full camp, I would be more confident in him here, but with his more limited cardio (assuming) I think this fight is probably pretty competitive. I just think Mota has the wider array of skills and I'll still lean his way.
Bets to consider: Durden ML +138
These fights with short notice replacements are always tough to bet, but this one is at least a little tempting. Durden is the guy with a full camp and he's at a pretty decent plus number here, so you have to at least think twice about it. If Durden had more reliable cardio, I would probably bet him at this number without really thinking that hard about it (although if he had better cardio, he probably would've been favored to begin with). What has me still thinking about it is the fact that Mota hasn't seemed very comfortable on his back. Durden is a guy who is pretty consistent to attempt takedowns and if Mota is going to get stuck with both shoulders on the mat, then Durden will almost assuredly out perform his price tag here. I don't know that I'll pull the trigger, but he is most certainly the side here if you're looking to play it. The under may have been interesting at one point as both guys take damage and have good power, but it's been juiced to -156, so I'm out there. The over is plus money now, but I'm not looking to test it with the cardio dynamic. It could get to a point where both guys are gassed out and it turns into a sloppy staring contest, but the number isn't there to tempt me on it at the moment. I think taking the stab on Durden is the move if you're going to play this fight.
Chase Hooper defeats Steve Garcia Result: Garcia by KO (1-2)
I don't think there's any way that this fight turns out to be normal. Chase Hooper is one of the most interesting fighters on the roster as his narrow skill set always makes him a curious watch. Hooper is a guy who is a very good transitional grappler with an aggressive submission game. The problem is that he just doesn't really have too much else going for him. He struggles to get into good positions because he isn't a great wrestler and his limited physicality and athleticism only make that even tougher for him. On the feet, Hooper's offensive striking has at least shown some growth over time. He doesn't have much power, but he is at least going to throw some volume out there and force the issue. The big concern at space is that Hooper just doesn't defend strikes at all. He just takes a beating at range against basically anyone. The one positive in that regard is that Hooper is really tough and has shown a great chin, so he can deal with some of that, but over the long haul, he's going to need to clean that up. With all that said, I do like Hooper here as Garcia has shown himself to be susceptible to the exact kind of fight that Hooper will bring. Garcia gave up a ton of control time to Luis Pena despite never actually surrendering a traditional takedown. Pena was able to transition to Garcia's back out of some weird spots and clinch exchanges. If Pena can do that, I have to believe Hooper could do the same. Garcia isn't the world's best striker or anything, but you don't really have to be against Hooper. Garcia could stand right in front of him and just unload strikes on him and he won't really have to be too concerned with anything too dangerous coming back his way. Hooper just doesn't have the defense on the feet, but I do ultimately thing we see Hooper get to good grappling positions and if Garcia is forced to go to the ground, I think Hooper finishes him there.
Bets to consider: Garcia ML +235
In short, for Chase Hooper to be -300 against almost anyone is pretty wild. Hooper fights in general are pretty binary in terms of possible outcomes. Either he's going to get to advantageous grappling positions and he'll win or he won't and he gets beat up on the feet. I just don't think that dynamic translates to a -300 favorite against anyone who would even be considered close to UFC level. If Hooper did literally anything positive on the feet, this would be a much easier price to swallow, but he just doesn't. He throws just ok volume, but he's not technical, he has very little power, and he just doesn't defend strikes at all. I do think he wins this fight more often than not, but these odds are just out of hand. I don't have any supreme degree of confidence in Garcia here because of what we saw in that Luis Pena fight, but he is really the only side here. The under is around -170 now and that is just a pass spot for me. Garcia has some submission defense and Hooper has shown toughness, so even if one fighter gets the fight where they want it, I think the other may be able to survive to a decision. I'm probably passing on this fight, but I don't hate someone taking a stab on Garcia.
Jun Yong Park defeats Joseph Holmes Result: Park by submission (2-2)
I feel like I say this every week, but this is one of those fights where I would love to be in the meeting to see how they came up with this matchup. Holmes is a really big, long, strong, explosive athlete who attempts submissions. Beyond that, he has a lot of question marks. He isn't an especially great striker, but his power is very real. He has a serious length advantage here as well, although I'm not sure he's all that well equipped to use it. His striking defense also leaves some to be desired as well as he's taken some really clean strikes in the past against guys who aren't necessarily world class strikers either. I don't really rate Holmes wrestling all that high even though he has shown a somewhat competent ground game. He has a lot of submissions on his record and he does attempt them at a high rate, but I don't really suspect he's much of a submission threat against someone who is a true UFC level fighter who knows what they're doing on the mat. His size advantage is significant here though and he could crack Park as he tries to enter the pocket and finish him, so Park will have to stay aware of that. Park isn't the most amazing fighter you'll ever see, but he is just a really solid, respectable UFC veteran. In short, I think he's just the more skilled fighter here. He's the better striker in this one. He'll be more technical and he's going to put out way more volume. He will also have the wrestling advantage and I suspect that he could take Holmes down whenever he felt necessary. As long as he stays safe on the feet and doesn't run into a big power shot, he shouldn't have too much of an issue.
Bets to consider: Park ML -250
If you're a returning reader, you know I'm not typically someone who looks to lay these big juiced money lines, but I kind of think it may be justified here. In terms of props, Park isn't the kind of guy who finishes fights very often and he doesn't get finished either. On the other hand, Holmes is a guy who does finish a lot of fights, win or lose. That weird dynamic doesn't really have me looking to play anything there. Even if Holmes gasses out, Park isn't the kind of guy who will put someone out unless he just overwhelms him with volume and Holmes just melts. Holmes at +198 really just doesn't interest me much as I think he's essentially limited to a knockout against a guy who is a better striker with pretty solid durability. The one thing that has me questioning this is that Park really isn't a guy who pulls away in fights. He generally fights pretty close and against a guy with a big power advantage, you worry about an optics thing with the judges. However, the technical advantage and volume advantage for Park should minimize that unless the reach problem suppresses a lot of the Park volume.
Marcos Rogerio De Lima defeats Andrei Arlovski Result: De Lima by submission (3-2)
This should be an interesting fight as we have two aging veterans of the heavyweight division coming together. Arlovski has been on a great run here of late, but I don't think this matchup is as favorable for him. Arlovski has thrived against more inexperienced volume based strikers where he can use his experience and veteran savvy to edge out close decisions. I think it is much more unlikely that he can do that here, but it is still a possibility. He's still a very solid range based point fighter who uses his movement on the outside to limit exchanges and then darts in and out to land strikes with decent, but unspectacular volume. His cardio is still in a fairly ok spot for a heavyweight that is well into his 40s now. What's worrisome for Arlovski is that some of the peripheral parts of his game have started to fade a bit. His durability hasn't been the best for awhile now, but he hasn't really faced the opponent with the power to take advantage of that in a little while. It also seems like his takedown defense is diminished as well. In general, I think Arlovski's upside is a close decision here and even though he's made a habit of winning them at a much higher rate than your typical fighter, there's only so many times it can happen in a row. For De Lima, I think he has a few traits that will see him come out of this fight as the winner. The first is his power. De Lima has really good power, even for a heavyweight and I kind of think that he knocks Arlovski out if he connects cleanly. While Arlovski should get out in front on the striking numbers, he's going to be entering the pocket dangerously because I think De Lima could have success countering here as well. It's not just the volume that would worry me for De Lima, but it's also the cardio because he definitely isn't the guy who is going to push a pace. The wildcard in this fight would be the potential for De Lima to wrestle. He doesn't do so aggressively, but he has shown that he can get a takedown here and there if he needs it and with Arlovski seemingly declining in that area, that could end up being the difference. I'll lean De Lima for his power and potential to grapple, but I won't be surprised if we get another Arlovski split decision win here.
Bets to consider: De Lima round 1 KO +400, Arlovski ML +198
There's a strange dynamic to this fight where it feels like a De Lima win probably happens pretty early. If he connects, I do suspect that Arlovski goes down. De Lima has the power to do it and the counter ability to catch Arlovski when he's closing the distance. As the time ticks away though, Arlovski's chances become better and better. As De Lima starts to tire, his volume will fall off and that is when Arlovski becomes live. If he gets to +200, I think it may be worth the poke. I think a better strategy would be to maybe bet Arlovski live if he gets out of the first round though. What is preventing me from betting Arlovski is that his volume and pace just isn't as high as I would like. If he pushed a bit of a higher pace late, I would be more willing to take the chance on him. However, if he's only going to beat De Lima on the numbers by a few strikes, but have a noticeable power disadvantage, I don't know that he can edge those rounds as easily as he has on this current run. This is another tough fight to bet and one that I'm trending towards staying away from.
Phil Hawes defeats Roman Dolidze Result: Dolidze by KO (3-3)
This fight is one where I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't. On paper, Phil Hawes should win this fight with little to no issue. Skill for skill, he has Dolidze covered across the board. He's more athletic, faster, a better striker, and a better wrestler. There's really no area of this fight where I think Dolidze has a clear advantage. The problem is that Hawes has a cardio issue and a very big durability problem. Hawes seemingly gets hurt in every single fight these days and Dolidze has the power to knock him out here. In general, Dolidze isn't the kind of fighter that I'm looking to bet on or pick in most circumstances. He's not necessarily a bad striker, he's just extremely low volume. He has decent power and he limits damage pretty well, he just doesn't throw anything. He's a better wrestler, but I still would say he's ok to decent there and I think Hawes is better. I think this fight really comes down to whether Dolidze lands the knockout blow or not. If he doesn't, I don't like his chances of winning a decision very much at all. I have to go with Hawes, but I wouldn't feel good about it.
Bets to consider: Hawes ML -178, Dolidze finish only +164
This fight is such a trap. Hawes is going to be winning every single solitary moment of this fight and looking -800 up until the exact moment that he's face down unconscious on the canvas. On one hand, you don't really want to bet Hawes because his durability is so hit and miss. On the other, it's hard to justify a play on Dolidze because he's at a disadvantage everywhere. Taking the over or under is essentially playing the same game. If Hawes is winning, it probably goes over as Hawes isn't a crazy finisher and Dolidze is pretty durable. If Dolidze wins, he probably got the finish. I should be more clear. Hawes has a lot of finishes for his career, but I think that is more because of his athletic and power advantages early in his career. Against a high level, I don't know that he projects to be finishing a more durable and reliable set of opponents. I kind of like the idea of taking a shot on Dolidze finish only though. It's a price that is better than his money line and I think almost all of his win equity comes via finish, so I'll probably be taking a shot there and just hope that he doesn't get finished himself. The fear is that he has his own gas tank problems, so hopefully Hawes isn't just pouring it on late.
Dustin Jacoby defeats Khalil Rountree Jr. Result: Rountree by decision (3-4)
This is probably shaping up to be the fight of the night outside of the main event and I'm here for it. I feel bad picking against Khalil Rountree here because I do like him, but he's just so inconsistent. It's impossible to know which version of him you're going to get fight to fight. There's the Michael Meyers version of Khalil where he comes out like a man possessed and could legitimately knockout anyone in the entire division. There is also the disinterested version of Khalil where he is very tentative and essentially melts at the slightest bit of adversity that could lose to anyone in the division. With that wide of a disparity in potential performance, there's no way you could pick or bet him with any degree of confidence, but he is capable of beating almost anybody. Jacoby on the other hand is much more steady and reliable. I think Jacoby is the more technical striker here and when paired with much more reliable cardio, I think that makes him a solid favorite. I do ultimately have some concerns in Jacoby's game even though I back him pretty consistently. Some of his defensive tendencies worry me and he's going to get clipped and knocked out at some point. Khalil has the power to do it, it's just a matter of if he can connect. I like how Jacoby can manage range, but when someone gets on the inside and is boxing him in the pocket, I kind of think his defense breaks down and he's there to be cracked. Khalil can box in the pocket a bit and if he connects I think Jacoby puts him down. What has me a bit more firmly on the Jacoby side is Khalil's cardio though as he's pretty reliable to slow down after the first round and I do think Jacoby's kick boxing background wins out here a bit more often than not.
Bets to consider: Fight doesn't start round 3 -138
The money line situation here isn't all that dissimilar than the Hawes fight. If you're betting Jacoby at a chalk price, you're kind of hoping that we don't get the Terminator version of Khalil. If we do, you're going to be sweating it out for the first round. If you bet Khalil, you're hoping that we don't get the very passive version of Khalil. The thing is that there's no real way to predict which version we get before hand. I think the best way to account for both scenarios is to play the fight doesn't start round 3. That covers the scenario where Khalil hunts him down and knocks him out as well as the scenarios where he is too passive or gasses out and gets finished himself. Depending on the version of Khalil we get, Jacoby could look -500 or Khalil flattens him within like 3 minutes. I think the money lines here are very risky and just wouldn't feel great playing either side. A violence based approach covers a lot of bases and can be had for some reasonable prices in places.
Josh Fremd defeats Tresean Gore Result: Gore by submission (3-5)
As I said before his last fight, I have mutual friends with Josh Fremd, so just keep that in mind and I'm putting it out there for full transparency. I was hopeful for Gore early coming off of TUF, but any expectations I had are pretty much gone at this point. I think he has a solid base and the early signs of skills are there, but he is far too inexperienced and it has shown. He's a good athlete, but his volume striking is just nonexistent. I'm starting to wonder just how great his power is, but it is at least respectable if not better. He's even shown some ability to wrestle, but he really doesn't go to it that much. All of that has to be taken with a grain of salt because it's all capped by his output. He just doesn't throw strikes, which limits his power potential and I'm not so sure his cardio is anything great either, so I'm not sure how many takedown attempts he has in him. The other issue is his last fight seemed to suggest his chin may not be all that great as he got knocked out by Cody Brundage and it didn't seem like a shot that was anything all that out of the ordinary. Fremd is much the opposite. He's very active to the point where he gets reckless. He isn't especially technical either and I could see Gore catching him on a counter and knocking him out. Fremd's biggest issue seems to be his defense as he has a tendency to leave his chin open after he throws his combinations. He should be able to land on Gore without too much of an issue, but he has to be careful to not get hurt badly on a counter shot. Fremd's chin has shown an ability to be cracked as well as we've seen him hurt and finished before. As long as he stays safe early, he should be able to just overwhelm Gore with volume and probably get a finish sometime in the second or early third round, if not earlier.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -142
Quickly, from a money line perspective, I think this fight is about right. Fremd has to be a small favorite just because he is almost guaranteed to win a decision if we get to one, but durability concerns paired with his defensive limitations and the power of Gore sort of limit how big that favorite could be. I don't see any reason to bet Gore either though as if he doesn't land the knockout punch, he's almost guaranteed to fall behind. He's still just so raw that I don't think I could really bet him against legitimate UFC competition right now. He needs a lot more experience, which will probably have to come outside of the UFC unless he turns things around quickly. -142 on an under is a bit juiced, but I really don't understand the merit to the fight going over. I think either Gore clips Fremd early and knocks him out and, if not, Fremd's pressure and volume probably finish Gore. That knockout against Brundage wasn't a great look for him and I kind of wonder just how much damage Gore can really take. This one feels kind of safe to go under, which means it will probably go over.
Jared Vanderaa defeats Waldo Cortes-Acosta Result: Cortes-Acosta by decision (3-6)
This fight is going to be a mess, but it might be an interesting mess. If you've been reading these for any length of time, you probably know that I am not very high on Jared Vanderaa. However, I think he's being disrespected in this spot a bit. At the very least, Vanderaa actually has a definable skill set with real attributes. The broadcast always loves to bring up his grappling, but I haven't seen anything there that suggests he's much at all. With that said, he is probably a better grappler than Acosta. On the feet, Vanderaa isn't going to wow you, but he is really high output for a heavyweight and pushes a good pace for someone his size. He doesn't have great power, but he's still huge, so it's not like he can't knock anyone out at all either. In general, he's been pretty durable before being finished in his last fight. He needs it though as his striking defense can be porous at times. Acosta comes from a boxing background, but he was inconsistent there as he was knocked out twice. In MMA, he really hasn't fought anyone who seems like they could competently strike with him either. He seems moderately powerful, but his overall striking game seems very average at best and that is being kind. I don't really trust his cardio or durability on top of all of that. His only real path is a knockout and with someone who has the proven durability of Vanderaa, I just don't really like Acosta's chances here.
Bets to consider: Vanderaa ML +168, O1.5 -130, FGTD +235, Vanderaa by dec +500
I just don't really understand the money line here. I guess everyone is seeing that Vanderaa hasn't had much UFC success and Acosta knocked out someone one Contender Series so he must be better? I honestly don't know. Vanderaa is going to land more strikes, he's going to be pushing the pace, and if there's any grappling, it will also be him. Vanderaa is more durable and has the better cardio. Acosta may have a power advantage, but not enough to swing an entire fight in my opinion. He's not Francis Ngannou or Derrick Lewis. The concern on the over and goes the distance is only Acosta's cardio. He could death gas after a round and just melt to the volume strikes of Vanderaa, but I think all of those are somewhat interesting and I may play all of them.
Max Griffin defeats Tim Means Result: Griffin by decision (4-6)
This should be a pretty fun fight for however long it lasts. Max Griffin is generally a fighter that I like and I think this is a semi ok spot for him. Griffin is moderately well rounded. He throws solid volume with respectable power and at least mixes in the wrestling a times. He's reliable to come forward and force his opponent into a fight. The big issue with Griffin is that he's pretty reliable to slow down over the second half of the fight and as his cardio fades, his durability also fades with it. Tim Means is largely going to give Griffin the fight he wants. He's also going to come forward and throw a ton of strikes. He also can mix in the grappling at times, but that really isn't what he looks to do most of the time. I think his cardio is still pretty solid even as he's gotten up there in age. What hasn't held up is his durability though as he's just getting hurt far more often than he used to and with someone like Griffin and his kind of power on the other side, I don't know that Means can take those shots anymore. If he can somehow weather the early storm and get Griffin to start to slow, I think Means could pull away with volume down the stretch, but I think getting there could be a real issue for him. A younger version of Means makes this really close, but I kind of think Griffin can probably knock him out at some point. It would be interesting to see Means go to the wrestling early to try and work on the Griffin gas tank, but I'm not sure how successful he would even be there. This should be a pretty fun fight though.
Bets to consider: U2.5 +154, Griffin KO +270
This is kind of a weird fight to bet. Griffin really isn't the kind of guy I'm looking to bet at -190 just because he is so consistent to slow down over the back half of fights. At the same time, I'm not really looking to bet Means because his durability may very well be shot. If I'm picking a side, I would much rather go with Griffin KO as if he really is justified in being a -190 favorite, he almost assuredly will finish Means. If he can't finish him, then Means was probably the side to be on anyways as he's going to have more in the tank late. I think the under 2.5 is a pretty solid spot though as this number just seems off to me. I think Griffin could finish this fight early and the longer we go, the more likely a Means finish becomes. Griffin isn't necessarily the most durable guy in the world either and Means still has most of his offensive game still intact. It isn't something that I'm supremely confident in, but it's just a line that I think is a bit out of whack.
Calvin Kattar defeats Arnold Allen Result: Allen by KO (4-7)
I know it may not come through with how I pick his fights, but I really am a huge Arnold Allen fan. He's a very technical and well rounded fighter. He's a good, technical striker and he brings a moderate level of power. Allen brings a bit of wrestling as well, but he much prefers to stand and strike and then just mixes in a takedown attempt here and there. I think the big concern for Arnold is that his volume isn't especially high. Kattar is going to bring high output, so Arnold is going to have to keep up and he isn't a historically high volume type of fighter. The question that follows that is Allen's cardio. We've never seen him go 5 rounds before and he has shown some signs of slowing at the end of 3 round fights where the pace was high. If Arnold can keep up with volume and has the cardio, then he will compete the whole way, but those are huge question marks coming in. Kattar is the much more known commodity here. He's reliable to throw volume and push a pace over 5 full rounds. He also has pretty good power for a guy who's known as a volume striker. He's also shown himself to be very durable, but with the amount of damage he's taken, that is going to fade at some point. Kattar doesn't wrestle often offensively, but his defensive grappling is very good and I don't expect him to get controlled here at all. Kattar sometimes has had issues with technical, range based strikers, but that isn't enough for me to fade him here. The volume and cardio questions for Allen are enough for me to pick Kattar here, but this has the potential to be a very close fight.
Bets to consider: Kattar 4, 5, or dec +180
This is a fight that I expect to go long. I don't think Allen throws the volume or has the power to finish Kattar, especially early on. Kattar does have the power and volume to potentially finish, especially if Allen gasses out, but I don't see that happening until later in the fight. Allen should be technical enough to limit some of that volume early, but if he can't maintain the pace, he could just get overwhelmed late. I think getting +180 here is a great way to play Kattar at a number better than his -104 money line. Allen's 4, 5, or decision is +185, so if you're on him, it is an equally good way to get a better number on him. If I'm going money line, I would go Kattar just because at -110/-110, I think most of the question marks are on Allen's side, so I would be much more comfortable playing Kattar.
That's it from me on this one. Leave all of your bets and predictions in the comments. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Jun Yong Park ML 1.5 units at -250 to win .6 units + .6 units
Roman Dolidze finish only .75 units at +164 to win 1.23 units + 1.23 units
Fremd/Gore U2.5 rounds 1.5 units at -142 to win 1.06 units + 1.06 units
Jared Vanderaa ML 1 unit at +168 to win 1.68 units - 1 unit
Vanderaa/Acosta O1.5 rounds .5 units at -130 to win .38 units + .38 units
Vanderaa/Acosta FGTD .25 units at +235 to win .59 units + .59 units
Vanderaa by decision .25 units at +500 to win 1.25 units - .25 units
Griffin/Means U2.5 rounds .5 units at +154 to win .77 units - .5 units
Kattar 4, 5, or decision 1 unit at +180 to win 1.8 units - 1 unit
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 1.11 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 10.41 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 11.52 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 4 - 7
Previous Year to Date Record: 266 - 156
Updated Year to Date Record: 270 - 163
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