Alright, better late than never. I just got a new job, so my posting schedule is going to be pretty messed up until I can get a writing schedule nailed down. I may do away with the full previews, at least in the short term, until I can figure out exactly how and when I'll have time. Because I do the picks and betting, I already preview each fight, just not in long form posts. That's what has me thinking that is the thing to cut for now, but we'll see how it goes once I'm adjusted to this schedule. I have to get to this card though because it was an incredible night. It was all capped off by the late knockout win by Alex Pereira over incumbent champion and long time foe Israel Adesanya. It was really an incredible fight from start to finish and I have a lot to say about it.
We'll start with Pereira and he actually looked better than I gave him credit for in the picks post on Saturday. I thought he would be behind Izzy in the striking more than he actually was. The first round was really close up until the last like 8 seconds of the round. He did get rocked badly though and if there was an extra 10 seconds, he may get finished himself. He then bounced back and immediately won the second round. The third was probably the most concerning for his long term status as champion. Getting cleanly out grappled by Adesanya isn't a particularly great look and it seemed to badly zap his cardio. He's going to have to work on his ground game because Izzy is someone who we've never seen grapple offensively before and he controlled Alex for an entire round. That isn't going to be good enough to hang onto the belt against guys like Robert Whittaker, Marvin Vettori, or Khamzat Chimaev, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. His fourth round didn't look great either and that's when things started to look really bad for him. He just seemed like he was out of gas and his volume was way down. He just didn't seem nearly as dangerous in that round and it felt like maybe his cardio just wasn't going to allow him to really push at the end. As it turns out, maybe Alex was just sort of preserving some of his cardio for the final round or he just caught a second wind. He looked much better in the fifth and had Izzy pinned up against the cage, which he did for much of the fight. He started throwing with more volume and finally clipped Izzy with one of those big power shots. Once Adesanya leaned up against the side of the octagon, everyone knew he was hurt and that's when Alex really opened up. Izzy actually didn't a pretty decent job of defending all things considered, but the shots that didn't connect were more than powerful enough to get some reactions. A final right hand connected flush and that was enough to get the stoppage. I don't think the stoppage was all that early if we're being honest. Izzy was bent over at the waist looking straight down at the floor and I don't think it was going to get any better for him. If anything, he was probably a few seconds away from eating one of the knees that we saw Pereira land against Andreas Michalidis and going out completely cold. I get that when it's for the title that people want to see a very definitive ending to the fight, but I don't really think that's necessary. It was only going to get worse for him from that point. I think that Marc Goddard ultimately saved Izzy there and probably gave him the opportunity to return sooner if anything. Had he let it go, I think the outcome is the same, but Izzy is probably out for a long time to recover from the kind of punishment that was waiting for him. What impressed me most about Pereira is how he was able to be the guy pushing the pace and pressuring for much of the fight, but he was also able to avoid damage for the most part. Outside of the big right hand at the end of the first round, he really didn't get hit with anything crazy. He was able to check a lot of kicks as well. It isn't clear whether it was a checked kick that hurt Izzy's leg late, but he did step on his own foot, which contributed to him falling down. Pereira was phenomenal and given his relative inexperience in MMA, he should only get better with time.
Normally, I talk about the next potential matchup next, but I'm going to do that at the end because I think it makes a little more sense in this case. As for Israel, I really don't get the narrative that he was having a bad day. Was it the best performance of his career? Certainly not, but I thought he looked just fine. Pereira is just a tough matchup for him. Izzy is a very tall, long, rangy, technical kickboxer. Pereira is one of the few guys who can hang with him in all of those facets. Izzy can typically just stay at range where he can't get hit due to his length and can easily counter his opponents when they come into range. That gameplan just doesn't work as well against Pereira because he's just as long and at least close in technical striking acumen. That really minimizes the best parts of Izzy's offensive game. The other worldly power makes counter striking with him a very dangerous game to play as well. The most surprising thing about Izzy's performance for me is that he really didn't move as well as I thought he would. He was getting backed up far too easily and he wasn't circling out as easily as I thought he could. He did a really good job of limiting the damage when he was backed up for most of the fight, but when someone has as much power as Pereira, that's an incredibly dangerous proposition. He was putting himself in a spot where he had to be perfect defensively for 25 minutes and he didn't do it. He got clipped once and then once someone like Pereira smells the finish, it's hard to come back from that. Even then, I think it was more of what Pereira was doing than what Izzy wasn't. Izzy had a lot of good moments, but the biggest one went against him. I think Israel should be looking to do more wrestling and further develop that part of his game for a potential rematch. He has a huge head start on Pereira there and should be able to take advantage of him. The only thing I didn't really get is why he let Pereira back him up so much. That was clearly the worst spot he could be in and he was just there far too often. I think that one adjustment really would make all the difference for him.
Now, as for what's next for these guys, clearly the rematch is on the horizon. It's really just a matter of how long Adesanya needs and wants to take off. He's been one of the most active champions in the UFC over the last few years and has earned a break if he wants it. Add in the damage he took in this fight and I think it would behoove him to take a bit longer than he normally would. He's been on a pretty consistent 3-4 fights a year pace for awhile now, so maybe it would be for the best if he didn't fight until closer to June or July of next year instead of March like he normally would. In any case, I see no need for Adesanya to not fight for the title in his next appearance. He's done too much in this division to not get an immediate title shot. Even if you're not so keen on the idea, who would he even fight? The only reason Pereira got a title shot in the first place is because Izzy has the division cleaned out. A third fight with Whittaker or Vettori doesn't make any sense if he doesn't have the title. No one wants to see him fight Cannonier again and Brunson is supposed to be retiring after his next fight. I suppose Sean Strickland, Jack Hermansson, and Darren Till are options, but I don't know what purpose that would really serve. If Izzy hasn't earned an immediate rematch, how do any of those wins help his case? They don't because he'll either be beating someone he's already beaten or someone who couldn't earn a title shot when he was champion. Whenever Izzy returns, it should be for a title shot.
The question becomes how long does he take off. If he is looking for a normal 3-4 month return, then there's really nothing else to talk about as that fight will get made as soon as Pereira's body is ready for another weight cut. If Izzy wants some extended time away, that's when things get interesting. Pereira is the champion and he should have the right to be an active champion if he wants to be. If Izzy wants to wait until July, then Alex can potential fight in March if he wants to and still be ready for a July date. In that case Pereira would need another opponent. The problem is, two of the most qualified options, Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa, are fighting in February. That probably puts them on the sidelines until closer to July, when Izzy would be ready for a return anyways. We have Strickland vs Cannonier in a few weeks, but I don't think Cannonier is getting another title shot anytime soon and Strickland has already lost to Pereira. Marvin Vettori is available, but he just lost to Whittaker, so that wouldn't make any sense. I guess the winner of Brunson vs Hermansson? That doesn't sound all that exciting, but I guess they could make it work. It would be kind of unfortunate to have this rematch put off for so long as it would lose a bit of the steam it has. At the same time, this really does seem like the fight to use as an international fight week headliner. Without the potential to put Whittaker or Costa into the title fight, I don't think the risk is worth the reward of having Pereira fight again. Just setting it up for a potential Adesanya vs Jack Hermansson fight doesn't seem worth the squeeze of getting Pereira an additional defense.
What do you guys think? What did you think of the fight? How do you think the UFC should handle this situation going forward with the next matchups? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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