Well, I apologize for not previewing the main event yesterday. I ended up getting a short notice interview and it just took way longer than expected and I wouldn't have put out the preview until probably 8 pm Friday night without having even started this post. Luckily, I think the main event sort of sets itself up to be a bit more simplified, so I don't think you'll be losing anything in the condensed version I'll be writing for this. This should in all likelihood be the card of the year. The main card is obviously great, but the prelims are also great and very deep. There really isn't a fight that I'm not interested in at least a little bit. I would be pretty surprised if this doesn't end up being the best PPV of the year and it couldn't come at a better time. The last few events haven't been all that hype worthy, so it's nice to have an event to actually be excited about. We have a lot of fights, so let's not waste anymore time. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Carlos Ulberg defeats Nicolae Negumereanu Result: Ulberg by KO (1-0)
This is a fight where I've been going back and forth. I ultimately came down on the side of Ulbert, but I don't feel particularly good about it. Ulberg is a ranged based kickboxer and when allowed to play his game, he's pretty good there. He's moderately technical, at least for the level of opponent he's at and he brings pretty solid power as well. Anything beyond that is where I start to have questions. I'm not so sure that Ulberg has great cardio, but I can't for sure say it's bad either. He fought one fight at an insane pace where he gassed and then got knocked out, but then he fought the next fight and it had no pace at all. After that, he got a first round knock out, so there's no clear way to really judge where his cardio is at. I think Ulberg functions best when the fight is very clean and remains a display of technique. If things start to break down and turn into a brawl, he has the power, but he just seem to like being in the pocket with strikes flying. We also don't really know what Ulberg is like as a grappler or how he looks on his back. Negumereanu is largely the exact opposite. He's not a guy who is tremendously skilled, but he uses the attributes he does have in a way that can get him wins. He's not a particularly great striker, but he comes forward, pushes a pace, and has pretty decent power. His striking defense is largely nonexistent though and he ends up eating a ton of clean shots. I guess I would call him a base wrestler, even though I don't think his wrestling is all that good. He mostly ends up just pressing forward, eating damage, and then pushes his opponent up against the cage. The pace and power he can strike with in the clinch is very effective though. He can really wear people down and beat them up over the second half of a fight. He takes a ton of damage, but his chin has been extremely durable to this point. If that durability continues here, I could easily see him finishing a gassed out Ulberg late. The thing is, Ulberg's power is very real and I'm not so sure he can't get the finish here himself. I think Ulberg's kickboxing will allow him to maneuver around the cage effectively and not get caught up in the clinch too much and he ends up touching up Nic from the outside. At the end of the day, Ulberg is the more technically skilled fighter and will have very clear athletic advantages, so I have to lean his way, but the style dynamics give Nic a chance, especially if Ulberg's cardio ends up being suspect.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 3 +110
This is a tough fight to bet because I really can't pin down exactly what I think the most likely outcome even is. I can easily see both guys finishing this fight. If Nic's chin finally fails him, he probably gets knocked out pretty early. His defense just isn't there, so his ability to extend the fight is purely based on if he can take the power or not. If Ulberg sees how hittable he is and turns up the volume, Nic is either going to take it or he's not. If he can though, maybe we see Ulberg gas out again and then Nic beats him up along the cage and knocks him out. At the same time, I could see a situation where Ulberg slow plays the whole thing. He knows he can touch Nic whenever he wants, so he takes a very measured approach and makes sure he stays on the outside. In that case, he could win just a very slow paced, clean 30-27 decision. I'm not really convinced Ulberg is going to push a pace here and with Nic's history of having a great chin, I think having the fight starts round 3 at plus money is at least worth a thought. It's hard for me to really have a hot betting take here because I'm so unsure on what this fight even looks like. From a money line perspective, I think I would rather have Ulberg here at -134. I just feel like all of the upside is on him here. He's more athletic and more skilled. The path for Nic is contingent on Ulberg having dreadful defensive grappling or having bad cardio. If neither of those are true, then Nic's path is virtually nonexistent. With that said, I don't feel nearly confident enough that both those aren't true to actually play Ulberg here and the number is big enough next to Nic for be to take the poke that one of those scenarios plays out.
Montel Jackson defeats Julio Arce Result: Jackson by decision (2-0)
This is another fight where I'm not really sure what to think. On one hand, I think Arce is probably the better technical fighter and is the best opponent Jackson has faced to date. On the other, I think Jackson has most of the physical advantages and probably has more of the upside. Arce is a pure striker and he's honestly a pretty good one. The problem for me is that his volume just isn't very reliable. Some fights his output is good and other times it isn't. This is largely due to the fact that Arce likes to sit back and counter, so he's not always as aggressive as you would like. In this matchup, I don't think that style is going to serve him well. Jackson isn't an especially high output striker either, but he probably does throw a bit more. He'll be at a technical disadvantage, but his athletic advantages will be very real. His nickname is Quick for a reason. His punches and strikes in general are very fast and powerful. Combine that with a pretty significant size and reach advantage and I don't really think a counter heavy game is going to be all that effective for Arce here. On top of that, Jackson is a pretty good offensive wrestler. Arce has historically had pretty good takedown defense, but he doesn't have a history of grapple heavy opponents and I think there's a possibility where Jackson is just too athletic and strong and can force takedowns. Similar to what I said about Ulberg, it just feels like Jackson has all of the upside here. I'll go with him, but it's hard to feel passionate about it.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -176
This is an interesting fight to bet. On the money lines, it's kind of weird. I believe that if one fighter is going to out perform their price tag consistently, it's probably Arce. He has the good takedown defense and he's the more technical striker. This also being the best opponent Jackson has ever faced is an element to consider as well. However, I think that if one fighter is going to significantly out perform their price, it would be Jackson. If his athletic traits are just too much he may be able to land without getting hit pretty consistently and he has the upside of getting takedowns and control. You may be asking yourself how that makes any sense so let me explain further. I think of all the scenarios where either fighter out performs their price, a majority of those are Arce. The problem is that, even in a best case scenario for him, I'm not sure Arce can really look anything better than like a -130-ish favorite. With Jackson, I think his best case scenario is him looking -500 or better. For Arce, his perfect fight is still Jackson coming forward and bringing a pace and he can just cleanly counter him. For Jackson, with his speed, a best case scenario is him being too long and too fast and he can get his strikes off and exit range before Arce can counter. On top of that, he can get takedowns and get a ton of control time. That dynamic has me saying away from the money line altogether. With that said, I think the over 2.5 is an ok play here. I don't suspect that we're going to see a high action fight on the feet. Jackson will probably look to use his length and Arce is going to try and counter. Maybe Jackson looks to wrestle and we could see a lot of work in the clinch and along the cage. It's not a great price, but it might be an ok spot.
Seungwoo Choi defeats Michael Trizano Result: Trizano by KO (2-1)
I wish I had some more passionate takes for these early fights, but this is another one where I'm just not really sure. In this case, I think it is a case of good matchmaking. These guys are just so similar that you really have to knit pick to find the small differences. I think I just prefer Choi a little bit here. Both guys largely look to strike and they do so at a slowish pace. The difference for me is that Choi has the better power and I think he is a little more responsible defensively. Both guys have lost two in a row, but I really don't like what we're seeing from Trizano recently. His defense just isn't really there and he's taking a ton of damage recently. I think if he's going to get hit as much as he has in his last two against someone with the power of Choi, it probably won't go too well for him. At the same time, it isn't like Choi is just on a different level either. I think the potential is there for Trizano to have grappling success, but he really just doesn't shoot takedowns hardly ever, so I don't predict that to start now. I like Choi's output a little bit more, his defense a little more, and he probably has the power edge as well. I'll lean his way.
Bets to consider: FDNGTD +130
I think this is just a case where the money line has gotten too wide. I prefer the Choi side, but not all the way out at -180. At the same time, I really don't want to play the Trizano side because I think his upside is pretty limited. If he were more reliable to shoot takedowns, I would have more interest in playing him, but he doesn't, so I don't. I think the fight not going the distance at plus money is just a bit off. Choi has pretty solid power and Trizano takes a lot of damage. He's been knocked out recently as well, so if Choi is landing, I suspect he can hurt Trizano. At the same time, Choi isn't the most durable guy in the world either. We saw him get hurt his last time out. If Trizano did try to grapple, he could probably finish Choi on the ground. I think this depends on how many other plays I have on the card. If I have a lot of other bets, I'll probably pass, but if it's a lighter slate from me, I may take the plunge.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz defeats Silvana Gomez Juarez Result: Kowalkiewicz by decision (3-1)
We have another pretty interesting and competitive fight here. Karolina is coming off of her first win in awhile and she badly needed it. Had she lost, she probably wouldn't be in the UFC anymore. Karolina had been on a really ugly down swing before that though, so we'll see if she can keep it going. Offensively, she can still be effective at times. She's a solid enough striker at range and she throws out a ton of volume. The problem is that she has no power and no defense. She does really good work in the clinch though and is always reliable to come forward and push a pace. If Karolina ended up in top position, I feel fairly confident that she could control and potentially submit Juarez. The problem there is that Karolina just isn't much of a wrestler. The defense really could be her undoing though as Gomez is a solid boxer and brings huge power for the division. It really wouldn't surprise me if Juarez were to find a knockout here. She's going to be able to land her power shots, it's really just a matter of how much volume her cardio allows her to get off. If she doesn't knock her out, it creates a dynamic where Karolina is landing more, but Juarez is landing the heavier strikes. The reason I lean towards Karolina is probably because I'm not too confident in how Juarez is going to look when she's on the back foot. Karolina is going to come forward and if she can back Juarez into the clinch, I think she really could take advantage of her there. Juarez also isn't a great grappler. Karolina isn't much of a wrestler, but if she can find a takedown, Juarez would likely end that round on her back or potentially get submitted, which is something she's had a bit of a problem with in her career. It's a close one, but I'll lean on Karolina and her experience factor.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -148
I think this fight sitting around -110/-110 is more or less correct. I think there are very reasonable ways to lean one way or the other, but I'm just not feeling anything strongly enough to actually play either side. I think If I were to play this, the over may be a spot. It is a pretty big number, but it still isn't that bad to me. For as bad as Karolina has looked recently and her defense has always been suspect, but she's only been knocked out by Andrade in the UFC. For as powerful as Juarez is, there's only one Jessica Andrade. Juarez could also easily be submitted here, but I don't think it is likely that Karolina can actually get this fight down. In that case, it seems that the over is actually the way to go even though it may not be the first inclination.
Matt Frevola defeats Ottman Azaitar Result: Frevola by KO (4-1)
This is one of those fights where no matter what I do, it's going to go the other way. This fight essentially comes down to what Frevola decides he wants to do. The first option is that we get a Matt Frevola who decides he's going to win at all costs. In that scenario, Frevola is going to take Azaitar down, beat him up, and probably submit him. The other option is that Frevola decides he wants to put on a show for the fans and he's going to plant his feet on the Monster Energy logo and chuck overhands until someone gets knocked out. Frevola is just the better fighter here. He's an ok striker with pretty good power. He's a very solid wrestler and his BJJ game is pretty good as well. The problem is that Frevola has a tendency to throw all of that out the window and decides to brawl instead. He has the power in those scenarios, but his durability just isn't there anymore. That's the exact scenario that Azaitar wants. He's an aggressive power striker. That's really about it. He wants to get into a brawl and let his huge power play. After the first round, his cardio starts to fade and he's not really a great grappler. If Frevola comes out ready to wrestle, I really don't see how Azaitar has a chance. If Frevola wants to trade with him, Azaitar probably should be a decent sized favorite. I have to pick Frevola as he's just the better all around fighter, but he'll really decide how this fight plays out.
Bets to consider: Frevola ML +124, Azaitar 1st round KO +320
The two ways that I would look to play it are above. I think an early knockout for Azaitar is his most likely method of victory. If Frevola comes out ready to trade bombs, the fight won't last very long at all. Azaitar should be favored there and with his power and Frevola's recent durability, it probably wouldn't take more than a couple of clean shots for Azaitar to put him out. On the other side, I'm not really sold on Frevola actually being plus money here. If he wrestles, he'll probably look -500 here. He should wipe Azaitar out on the mat and probably finishes him without too much resistance. If this fight somehow got extended, Frevola becomes ever more of a favorite because Azaitar's cardio is questionable at best right now. Frevola would have little resistance to takedowns and should dominate this fight if he comes in with an ideal gameplan. If he does decide to trade in the pocket, he will most likely get knocked out, but he does have a chance there. Frevola does have power and if he connected before Azaitar did, I could certainly see Azaitar going out. Azaitar doesn't have a Max Holloway chin or anything, so while a brawl does favor Azaitar, it isn't like Frevola has no chance there either. I just don't really see how he gets out to a +124 underdog given how easily he could win this fight if he wanted to.
Andre Petroski defeats Wellington Turman Result: Petroski by decision (5-1)
This is probably the fight that I have the least interest in on the entire card and even then, it's not that bad. Petroski is a guy who I've kind of gone back and forth on. He has a lot of nice tools, but his technical striking holds him back on the feet and his cardio holds him back in general. He's a pretty big guy and he throws with a decent amount of power with solid volume. He's just not a technical striker at all. He is sort of limited to big overhands and wild hooks. Petroski is a pretty good wrestler and he's showing himself to have an effective submission game to go with it. The cardio situation hurts him though as he's pretty reliable to lose steam as the fight progresses. He does a decent job of fighting through the fatigue, but he still isn't the same guy in the back half of the fight. I ultimately don't think that will matter here though as Turman just doesn't have the skill set to take advantage of those weaknesses. Turman is really a BJJ based fighter and he doesn't have a ton to go with it. His striking isn't very good and he doesn't really have power or throw volume. He takes damage on the feet as well. His submission game is fine, but he's just not a good enough wrestler to consistently get the fight to the ground. On top of that, he's not a great positional grappler either. He loses advantageous positions far too often for a fighter who is so reliant on grappling. He's essentially submission or bust in my opinion. While I could imagine him triangling a gassed out Petroski from his back, I don't think it's likely and it may be his best way to win. Even with the cardio problem for Petroski, he will probably push harder late than Turman and as long as he doesn't dive into a submission, he should be just fine.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 3 +118
Quickly, with the money lines, I just don't really see any need to play these. Petroski isn't the kind of fighter I trust near -200, but at the same time, I think the line may actually be about right. Turman really isn't the guy I'm looking to back against almost anyone. Unless he's fighting someone who is just an awful grappler, his skillset doesn't lend itself to anything more than a narrow, split decision win. I think that as long as Turman doesn't get finished quickly, this fight probably has a decent chance of getting extended. Petroski will be aggressive early and even with Turman's striking defense, I don't really expect a knockout. Petroski could submit him, but I think with Turman's own submission threat, Petroski may be a little more cautious on top and not go all out for a finish. Once it's out of the first round, Petroski loses a lot of his steam and a finish because much less likely. I think the late rounds see a lot of top control from Petroski and he probably grinds out a pretty straightforward decision win. To start round 3 at plus money seems like a solid play to me. Also, the over 1.5 is -144, but starts round 3 is +118... I don't really see how that works. I don't see why the last 2.5 minutes of the second round would be the perfect time for a finish since that is when Petroski will really start to slow down, but maybe I'm just missing something. If you really want to play Turman, I think ITD is the best way to play it though as I'm not really sure what his path to a decision is. He isn't likely to get much, if any top time to win it that way. He is low volume on the feet with little power, so I don't know how he wins rounds standing. I think he's pretty much looking for an arm bar from guard here, so that's how I would look to play him if you want his side of this one.
Erin Blanchfield defeats Molly McCann Result: Blanchfield by submission (6-1)
That brings us to easily the strangest fight of the night. Molly McCann has become one of the most popular female fighters on the entire roster, signs a huge deal with barstool, and has been a part of really rebuilding a lot of the hype around UK MMA over the last year or so. The UFC then decides it was a great idea to put her on their biggest card of the year, which makes perfect sense...right up until you realize it's against one of the worst stylistic matchups they could've given her. I feel like I say it every week, but I would love to be in the matchmakers meeting when they come up with some of these fights because I want to know who suggested this one. Molly is pretty much the perfect fighter to become a fan favorite. She has a quirky, fun personality that makes her as an individual really likeable and she pairs it with a fan friendly brawling type of style. She comes forward, throws a lot of strikes, and looks to mix it up. She throws a lot of volume and has found her power a bit recently. The problem is that she isn't a very good defensive wrestler and she is probably even worse on her back. Her get up game and her ground game really just don't exist much at all. Blanchfield is pretty much the fighter that was built to beat Molly McCann. She's not a great striker, but she's been showing improvements there. I don't know that she beats Molly in a kickboxing match, but I think it's probably a lot closer than a lot of people are giving her credit for. Blanchfield is a pretty good wrestler though and I expect that she can get takedowns whenever she wants. It may only take one takedown here to finish the fight to be honest. I think she probably gets it early, then can get to a dominant position and either pound Molly out or submits her. This is a horrible matchup for Molly McCann and I have no idea why the UFC made this fight, but Blanchfield would have to make some really poor decisions to lose this one.
Bets to consider: McCann ML +360, Blanchfield ITD +200
I'll just get it out of the way early. If you want to play Molly, just play the ML. You can get some bigger numbers if you play some other things, but I think the moneyline is big enough that there's no need to look elsewhere. With that said, I wouldn't be looking to play Molly in any capacity. Unless Blanchfield decides she's going to try and take inspiration from Israel Adesanya and stand at range for 15 minutes, she shouldn't lose this fight. She should get the takedowns and then advance to dominant positions without any real issues. She can get a TKO or submission and it's really just up to her. I don't understand how Blanchfield inside the distance is all the way up at +200. I don't see how Blanchfield isn't getting to dominant positions if she wrestles and if she's in dominant positions, she should finish at a pretty high rate. If she's not wrestling, then she was never the side in the first place. It also just doesn't make sense for someone to be -500 on the ML and then be +200 to finish, I just don't think that situation exists.
Dominick Reyes defeats Ryan Spann Result: Spann by KO (6-2)
In a vacuum, Ryan Spann has a handful of traits that are good. He's big, strong, powerful, and he has a nice guillotine choke. The problem is that all of the things that he would need to link those together in order to win fights really aren't there. Spann has power to get knockouts, but he's not a technical striker at all, so he's just limited to big power shots. He doesn't throw with good volume, so that limits his chances of landing a shot in general. He has flashed some submissions at times, but he's not really a good enough wrestler to consistently get the fight to the ground. On top of that skillset, Spann really doesn't have more than a round of cardio to get the fight finished and it's really just first round finish or bust for him. He's also not the most durable guy in the world. We're getting the return of Dominick Reyes after a really long layoff and it's good to see him back. He went through a really rough stretch and I think he's ready to make another run. Really, unless Reyes dives into a guillotine or walks into a power shot in the first 3 minutes, he should be fine. He's a better striker, he has better cardio, and he's historically more durable. He has a more diverse skillset on the feet and he really should be able to find a finish here. I think his left kick should be able to land to the body here and maybe he comes up high with it to finish the fight. As long as the damage of his last 3 fights haven't just permanently changed him as a fighter, then this is his fight to lose.
Bets to consider: Reyes ITD -135
I really don't see any reason to play Spann here, especially at these odds. The only real way to justify a Spann bet, in my opinion, is if you think Reyes is just cooked. The damage he took against Jones, Jan, and Jiri was just too much and he's not the same guy anymore. Unless that is the case, I don't see why Dominick Reyes should lose here. He's just on a different level in the striking and athletically. As long as he stays safe for the first few minutes, he should be fine. Spann will gas out after the first round and I think Reyes just puts it on him and gets him out of there.
Brad Riddell defeats Renato Moicano Result: Moicano by submission (6-3)
If you've been here for any length of time, you may know that I've always been a fan of Brad Riddell and I'm not hopping off the bandwagon now. With that said, this is going to be a tough one for him. Riddell needs to get this fight on the inside and have it stay at boxing range. If he can force Moicano into a brawl, that's where Riddell's counter ability and power can shine. On the outside, I think the striking becomes a bit more even because of Moicano's length and volume. Riddell can still counter successfully from the outside, but I think in close is where he can have the most success. The concern for Riddell is the grappling. Moicano is an extremely dangerous grappler and I have a feeling that one takedown may be all it takes. Riddell has a bad habit of getting his back taken once taken down and if he does that to Moicano, he's almost certainly going to get submitted. I think the problem for Moicano is that he's just not that great of a wrestler. He uses a lot of upper body type of takedowns and trips. Riddell is in the right camp to learn takedown defense and with Moicano not having a ton of variety in that area, he should be well prepared to stop them. The danger for Moicano comes in his durability and defense. He doesn't always defend strikes well and if things get crazy, I kind of think he's the one who's more likely to go down. I like Riddell's defense better on the feet as well. This is a tough one to dissect, but I have to stick with Riddell for at least one more.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -112
I think the money line for this fight is probably about right. Moicano being a slight favorite is probably justified and it's not wide enough to really look to play Riddell in my opinion. The under here is probably just not priced correctly. Moicano isn't especially durable and does take some damage, so if this is largely a boxing match, I think the odds are that he gets knocked out. At distance, Moicano also could potentially hurt Brad and initiate a finishing sequence of some sort. On the ground, Moicano probably finishes this fight almost every time. For this to be lined at -112, I just think that is a bit off.
Dan Hooker defeats Claudio Puelles Result: Hooker by KO (7-3)
We all know Dan Hooker has been on a tough run as of late, but this is just pushing it a bit too far. I'm a Dan Hooker fan, so maybe take it with a grain of salt, but I really think he should be just fine in this one. He's a big, long, range based striker naturally. He uses his jab and low kicks to keep fights on the outside and he does a pretty good job of it. I wouldn't say that he's naturally the most powerful guy in the world, as he's a bit on the lanky side, but he can certainly get knockouts. A lot of his best highlights have come from knees, which I think could be a huge factor in this one. Hooker is a pretty solid defensive wrestler and has even added more and more offensive grappling to his game recently. Elite level grapplers like Islam are the kinds of guys who have and probably always will give Hooker a hard time, but that isn't what we have here. Puelles is a grappling based fighter who heavily relies on his submission game, especially leg locks. That's just not a reliable way to consistently win fights at this level and especially once someone breaks into the top 15, which is what Puelles is trying to do. To me, it's kind of looking like a knee bar or bust for Puelles. I really don't see him riding out rounds on top because his wrestling just isn't at that level. Hooker has stopped takedowns from much better wrestlers in the past. If anything, I think Hooker would end up being the guy on top because Puelles ends up pulling guard just to ground the fight eventually. On the feet, Puelles is just very raw and rudimentary. He has no pace at all and ends up absorbing more strikes than he lands pretty consistently. A striker the caliber of Dan Hooker should have no issue avoiding damage and landing back pretty damaging shots. I said before that the knees from Hooker should be important and I think if we see Puelles panic wrestling sometime over the second half of the fight, Hooker can time a knee with the takedown attempt and knock him out. Even if that isn't the case, I think Hooker knocks Puelles out at some point. I don't think Puelles can get to dominant positions on the ground and I know he doesn't have the skills to hang on the feet, I think this is a good spot for Dan.
Bets to consider: Hooker ML -152
To build off of what I was just saying above, I think Hooker ML is probably the way to play this fight. I just don't really see how Puelles wins this fight any significant percentage of the time. He's not going to end up on top, so a grappling based decision is unlikely. He can't technically strike with Dan, so a striking based decision isn't going to happen. Even if Hooker is as cooked as some people thing, Puelles really doesn't have that kind of power, so a knockout isn't likely regardless of the status of Hooker's chin. The only really path for Puelles is submitting Hooker, but he's going to have to do it from bottom position. I'm not here to tell you it's impossible, but I think Hooker is, at worst, and equivalent positional grappler to Puelles. I really think it's unlikely that Puelles even ends up in a position where he has an opportunity to finish this fight, let alone actually pulls it off. I don't really understand how Hooker isn't at least -200 and probably even a bigger favorite than that if we're being completely real.
Frankie Edgar defeats Chris Gutierrez Result: Gutierrez by KO (7-4)
Call me crazy, I like this spot for Frankie. Frankie isn't a great striker, we know this, but he's not awful either. He is sort of a middling pace and he's not going to do anything wild, but he can get in and land strikes just fine. He's historically done a pretty good job of limiting the damage as well, mostly because he's spent so much of his career on top. Frankie is going to need to wrestle and I think he can do that here. He's still the best opponent Gutierrez has ever fought and probably, even at his age, the best wrestler. Gutierrez has just ok takedown defense, but he is a guy who fights off of his back. Once he gets taken down, he really doesn't even try to get up. Gutierrez probably has good enough takedown defense to stuff some shots, but I don't think he stops all of them. Once he goes down, I feel confident that Frankie will control the rest of the round from top position. Gutierrez needs this fight standing and he needs it to be on the outside. He's primarily a volume based fighter who's best weapon is his low kicks. He really doesn't have a ton of power in his hands and he doesn't throw his hands all that much anyways. He just likes low kicks and it's worked really well for him. That kind of leads Gutierrez into these fights that look really close because he's just not landing many punches to the head and he's also very willing to be the one moving backwards. He likes to move laterally and skirt the outside of the cage, but against Edgar, who is going to shoot takedowns here, I think he either goes down or gets stuck in the clinch for long stretches here. I think Frankie only needs a couple of takedowns to win a close decision and he may even be able to take all three rounds. I'm also not as convinced that his chin is as far gone as some people may be suggesting. Getting front kicked in the chin twice by Chito and flying kneed by Sandhagen is not the same as taking 28 low kicks from Gutierrez and the occasional 2 punch combination. I think Frankie's chin is ok and I think he wins his last fight.
Bets to consider: Edgar ML +198, O2.5 rounds -156
Given what I just said, I think Frankie at +198 just doesn't make sense. Taking Frankie out of the equation for a second, I don't think Gutierrez is a guy who can sit at -250 against any opponent of consequence. When someone can't get control time grappling and has little to no finishing ability, they just can't really be big favorites unless the technical gap is just too wide. While the technical striking gap is there, the grappling upside for Frankie at least narrows that. Unless Frankie's chin is actually just gone, I don't see how Gutierrez can cover his price. I think Edgar covers +198 pretty easily and consistently. I think he wins this one tonight. I also think this fight goes over 2.5 pretty consistently. Gutierrez isn't a finisher. He doesn't have great power and he doesn't throw to the head often enough. Frankie really isn't a finisher either. He doesn't have the submission game to finish that way and I think Gutierrez is a a competent enough grappler off of his back to not get smashed. I think this number is buying too much into the idea that Frankie's chin is gone and should be much higher.
Dustin Poirier defeats Michael Chandler Result: Poirier by submission (8-4)
I did a full preview for this one, so if you want longer form thoughts, check that out. For me, this fight really just comes down to the gameplan of Chandler. If he's coming out to win at all costs, he's going to wrestle heavily and he probably wins that fight pretty consistently. If he's coming out to have a fight of the night moment where the roof blows off the arena, he's going to stand and bang with Dustin and he probably loses that fight. It really just may be as simple as that. My gut says that Chandler probably tries to stand and strike and I don't favor him in that spot. Poirier is a much more technical boxer, he's more durable, and has better cardio. It's the wrestling that would even things up for Chandler, but I just don't really think he goes to it here.
Bets to consider: Chandler ML +176
With that said, you could really only play Chandler here. Dustin sitting at -220 is really like best case scenario for him. I don't think there's a many ways for this to play out where he covers that kind of price. Chandler can still knock him out on the feet and if Chandler chose to wrestle, he probably looks like a favorite. There's just no way to trust him to do it, but he has to be the side. I thought about listing the over 1.5 at -130, but I don't want to ruin my viewing experiencing by having a heart attack while they both get wobbled and hoping that the fight doesn't get stopped right away. I don't think it's a bad bet to place, but not something I feel like thinking about while this fight is happening.
Carla Esparza defeats Zhang Weili Result:Weili by submission (8-5)
I also did the full breakdown for this fight, check that out for more details. This fight should be a pretty good one, even though it probably has the least hype. To me, this fight just comes down to the physicality for Weili. If she's just too strong and athletic for Carla, she'll stuff all of the takedowns and then can let her hands go. If this ends up as a kickboxing match, Weili is just going to be too good. She's to powerful and too aggressive for Carla to have any success striking. Carla is going to have to get takedowns here and I think she will. Weili's wrestling just isn't quite good enough in my opinion. She relies too much on her size and strength to wrestle and against someone like Carla Esparza, that isn't going to cut it. Once she's down, Weili is willing to accept the bottom position. Getting controlled by Rose Namajunas is what has me off of Weili here, but she's a heavy favorite for a reason. If she stays upright, she wins pretty easily, but I'm sticking with Carla.
Bets to consider: Esparza ML +300
I just think this line is a bit off. I'm fine with Weili being a favorite and even a decent sized one. Her striking advantage and physicality advantages dictate that it should probably be the case. However, with the very clear grappling advantage, I'm not sure how someone gets all the way to -400 for Weili. Carla was a pretty big underdog against Rose and she proved that shouldn't be the case, mostly due to her wrestling. If Weili can't stop Rose from taking her down, I don't know how someone could be so confident that she'll do the same here. I just think this line is off and will play Carla small.
Israel Adesanya defeats Alex Pereira Result: Pereira by KO (8-6)
We're here at the main event and I think this is probably Izzy's fight. We know the story. They're both high level kickboxers. Both guys are tall and long. The separation is the experience in MMA for Adesanya and the power for Pereira. The reason this fight is even a thing is because Pereira has two wins over Izzy, but they come with some asterisks for me. The first fight they had, I think Izzy pretty clearly won the fight, but I guess the judges thought differently. In the second fight, Pereira did knock him out, but Izzy was winning the fight pretty cleanly up to that point. Obviously, Pereira can knock him out again here, but I just don't really think it's all that likely. I think the most likely outcome is that we see kind of a standard Adesanya win. He's going to skirt the outside, land his jabs and low kicks and retain his belt. I think Izzy's movement is just going to be too much here. I don't think Pereira can corral him and get him to start exchanging. If Pereira starts to get reckless, I think Izzy can counter him and potentially even finish him. This isn't kickboxing and Izzy has a significant experience advantage in the small differences that MMA presents. Not that I expect it, but I have to think that Izzy would have a grappling advantage if he wanted to use it. We saw him reverse position on Vetorri, so the guy clearly knows how to grapple a little bit. We're not too far removed from Pereira dropping a round to Andreas Michalidis on the ground, so his grappling is clearly just not there right now. I do kind of think this fight, for Pereira, comes down to whether he can land the left hook or not.
Bets to consider: Adesanya 4, 5, or dec -120
If you want to play Pereira, I think doing so by knockout at +280 is one way to go, but the money line is probably fine. From my point of view, for Pereira to land the kinds of strikes in the volume he would need to in order to win a decision, you have to like him to finish right? Maybe Izzy's chin can hold up, but if Pereira is landing enough to win rounds, it feels like he would knock him out. However, I just don't really feel like we're going to see Pereira land with all that much frequency. I think Izzy is going to be able to move laterally along the perimeter of the cage and avoid most of that power. I think he'll be content land low kicks and jabs from the outside. Once the rounds start to pile up, I could see Pereira starting to force the issue and getting countered a bit. That's really why I like the 4, 5, or decision here for Izzy. I don't think an early finish is really in the cards for him as he'll want to be cautious with the power of Pereira, but I think he can win rounds. If he is going to finish, it probably comes late when Pereira throws caution to the wind. I think I play this every main event, but I'll play it again here.
That's it from me. I'm excited for this card and I'm sure you guys are as well. Leave all of your predictions, picks, bets, and whatever else in the comments. Thanks for reading and enjoy the night. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Choi/Trizano FDNGTD .5 units at +130 to win .65 units +.65 units
Matt Frevola ML .5 units at +124 to win .62 units +.62 units
Erin Blanchfield ITD 1 unit at +195 to win 1.95 units +1.95 units
Dominick Reyes ITD 1 unit at -135 to win .74 units - 1 unit
Riddell/Moicano U2.5 rounds .75 units at -112 to win .67 units + .67 units
Dan Hooker ML 3 units at -152 to win 1.97 units + 1.97 units
Frankie Edgar ML .5 units at +198 to win .99 units - .5 units
Edgar/Gutierrez O2.5 1 unit at -156 to win .64 units - 1 unit
Carla Esparza ML .5 units at +300 to win 1.5 units - .5 units
Israel Adesanya 4, 5, or dec 1.5 units at -120 to win 1.25 units - 1.5 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 1.36 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 9.17 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 10.53 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 6
Previous Year to Date Record: 279 - 165
Updated Year to Date Record: 287 - 171
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