Moving on with our previews of UFC 281, we'll be going over the co-main event, which is for the strawweight championship. Carla Esparza is set to defend her title for the first time in her second run as champion after she upset Rose Namajunas in one of the strangest and most uneventful title fights I've ever seen. She'll be taking on former champion Zhang Weili and I don't think we have to worry about a staring contest in this one. This fight is sort of flying under the radar as the other two big fights on this card are getting a ton of attention (rightfully so) and neither of these women really talk a big game. Weili only speaks a little bit of English, so her promoting this fight isn't really an option, at least to the American audience, and Carla just isn't the person to come out and talk a big game. Carla also just doesn't have too much of a fan base, partially due to her lack of public persona and also due to a grappling heavy style that the more casual audience isn't interested in. Add that to the fact that she beat a pretty popular in Rose and that's a solid recipe for not having a ton of fan backing. That's pretty unfortunate though as Carla seems like a great person and was very worthy of earning the second title shot. She's also a legend based on her history as a champion, but most people probably weren't watching at all or not too intently at that time. Zhang is the much more exciting fighter and her with the belt probably greenlights another Rose title shot, so most people will be rooting for that. Let's just get into the fight.
Zhang Weili comes into this fight after knocking out another former champion in Joanna Jedrzejczyk in what would be the final fight of her career (at least as things currently stand). Prior to that, she had suffered the only two losses of her UFC career, both to Rose Namajunas. It was good to see Zhang pick up a win and stop the skid. Sometimes when a fighter is on one of those long winning streaks and finally loses, they struggle to bounce back, but Zhang was able to get back in the win column before too long. She's never been the most active fighter since joining the UFC, but I think that probably has as much to do with the pace of the division as a whole as it does her own preferred timeline. This will be her second appearance of 2022 and she looks to recapture her title. I don't think it is a stretch to say that Zhang is probably the most well rounded and physically gifted at 115 lbs. There's really nothing that she doesn't have a respectable base level of skill in. With that said, she's certainly a primary striker and a damn good one at that. She brings a pace and power combination that is just unique for women of this size. She is very aggressive and not afraid to trade if she has to. The pace with which she lands and throws strikes is really hard to match. Because she has a power advantage over basically everyone, she has no problem walking through some strikes to land her own. Normally, you don't see someone strike with both elite volume and power as there's some kind of trade off, but Zhang doesn't have that problem. She can be pretty technical, or at least moderately technical, when she wants to be, but more often she wants to create a bit of chaos and let her natural advantages take over. Those natural, athletic advantages really are at the forefront of Zhang's game. She is very big, strong, and explosive and it really sets her apart from her competition. The speed and power she brings in the striking is just on a different level. She uses her strength to bully other women in the clinch and can force takedowns by just brute forcing her opponent to the ground. Her offensive wrestling isn't really anything that special, but with the physical advantages that she has, takedowns come a bit more easily than they otherwise would. There are only a couple of weaknesses in Zhang's game and they both come defensively. Zhang's striking defense leaves a bit to be desired. She has been willing to eat damage at times and while she's taken that damage fairly well for the most part, she did get knocked out by Rose not too long ago. I don't suspect that all of the sudden her chin is just gone, but maybe that could be a sign that her durability has just started to regress as she's aged. Whether Carla Esparza is the fighter to take advantage of that is a different story, but that could be something to look out for in the future. Regardless of that, she has been hittable, so even if Carla isn't knocking her out, Zhang can be hit. The biggest obstacle to a win in this fight for her will be her defensive wrestling and grappling though. Even though she's only been taken down in one fight in the UFC, the second matchup with Rose, it was enough to drop her takedown defense to 60%. She really just hasn't faced a ton of opponents who were willing to wrestle her. She fought Jessica Andrade, but she won that fight in 42 seconds, so we didn't really get to see that fight play out much. Rose isn't really even the best wrestler in the world and she secured a couple of takedowns that ultimately won her the fight. Zhang is going to have to be prepared to fend off a lot of takedown attempts and they'll almost certainly be the best takedowns she's ever seen. Zhang giving up 7 minutes of control time to Rose has to be encouraging for Carla. It's without a doubt the biggest question mark we have for either side coming into this fight and it's probably going to end up deciding it. Zhang Weili is a physical specimen that holds most of the advantages in this fight, but the few holes in her game will give Carla a very real chance to pull of the upset.
I have to say, it feels good to see Carla Esparza with the title again. The UFC really didn't want to give her the title shot or at least it felt like it and she took advantage of it. Obviously, the fight didn't play out the way we wanted in terms of entertainment value and I'm not sure who the blame goes to. It was clear that Rose didn't want to engage and Carla does deserve some degree of credit for that. The way her wrestling dominated Rose in their first fight was in her head to such a degree that she completely threw her normal game out the window. That was the last fight in what has been a late career resurgence for Carla as she's now won 6 in a row. That streak maybe doesn't get the credit it deserves since so many of those wins were close with a couple of split decisions mixed in, but her domination of Yan Xiaonan was more than enough to earn her the title shot in my opinion. It kind of feels like Carla is being billed as this old fighter who's making her last stand and while that may not be completely untrue, she's only two years older than Weili. It feels like the gap is much wider since Carla has been fighting in the UFC for the better part of a decade (her TUF finale win was in 2014) where Zhang came over to the UFC in 2018, but the age gap isn't nearly as dramatic as it is being made to feel like. Carla Esparza has ridden her high level wrestling game to two separate title reigns and she's going to continue to do so here. I think it is pretty safe to say that Carla is the second best WMMA wrestler that we've ever seen. Given the unfortunate nature of Tatiana Suarez's career, you could argue that Carla is better because of her longevity, but that is irrelevant for the time being. A freestyle wrestler isn't a very common base in women's MMA and that has really served Carla well. She simply brings a skill set that most women don't come across and even if they have, she just does it on a different level. She isn't the most efficient wrestler in the world, but she is very persistent and her cardio allows her to pretty much shoot as many attempts as she needs. Her top game is very good as well and she can control her opponent and get to advantageous positions. Her ground and pound game isn't anything to write home about, but she can be very effective from top position as we saw against Xiaonan. Her submission game isn't anything out of the ordinary either, but she can grab onto something if she gets the opportunity. What causes Carla to often be over looked is that she really doesn't offer any other championship level skills. She has good cardio and she's been pretty durable, but her other MMA skills have sort of leveled off. Her striking really doesn't provide much danger and she really just uses it to set up takedown attempts. She's not one of those grapplers that looks completely lost on the feet, but she doesn't really do too much there. She tries to minimize exchanges and stay all the way on the outside until she can close the distance into a takedown attempt. Her striking numbers are low and the relative danger is also pretty low. Carla really lacks a lot of the physical tools that are required to finish fights on the feet. She just doesn't generate the power or speed on her strikes to do a ton of damage. She's also just not really technical enough or fast enough to sit back and try to counter strike. Her lack of physicality also makes getting takedowns a bit more difficult than it should be at times because she can just get out muscled by opponents. Carla is a bit more one track than you see at the top of most divisions in today's day and age, but she is still as good as they come. Her wrestling will be the key to how this fight plays out and we know that she'll be ready to go Saturday.
I don't like to always boil a fight down to striker vs grappler, but that is essentially what we have here. Weili is a very well rounded fighter and to just classify her as a striker is a bit simplistic, but in this matchup, she's just that. For her, initiating grappling sequences would only give Carla her best chance at winning. Could Zhang try and get takedowns and spend some time on top? I suppose so, but I just don't see any real upside in that approach. The path of least resistance will be for her to stand at range and do her thing there. I suspect she will come forward and being ready to unload some massive power shots. She's going to have to balance being aggressive but not overly aggressive. If she over extends herself, that is exactly the opening that Carla will need to get this fight to the ground. It will ultimately come down to whether Carla can close the distance and then take the fight to the ground or not. If she can consistently get on the inside, I do suspect that she can get Weili down. It's more so a matter of walking through the fire to get to that point. Zhang is going to be ready for Carla to close the distance and when she does so, the counters will be there. The concerns for Carla are two fold. The first is that she just can't close the distance. In that case, she is just going to get pieced up on the outside and probably finished. That really isn't a secret though. The big worry that follows is that Zhang may just be too physical for her. Carla could clinch her up and find out that Zhang is just too strong. That would really leave Carla unable to mount much if any offense at all. It goes without saying, if that is the fight we see, it goes very poorly for Carla. On the other side, the big worry for Zhang is what we saw in the second Rose fight. Rose was at the same physical disadvantages that Carla will be and she got takedowns and controlled from top really without issue. Carla's takedowns and top game are way better than Rose, so that all points to Carla. The difference is that Rose had the threat of her striking and the takedown attempts could have caught Zhang off guard. Zhang knows the takedowns are coming from Carla and her striking really isn't a threat at all. Beyond that, I think it was worrisome that Zhang really didn't get up from underneath Rose. She was content to lay on her back and really not do a whole lot. It really all just comes down to whether or not Carla gets to her takedowns or not. One last thing that I think is worth mentioning is that Zhang really isn't a true range based striker. She's very aggressive and wants to get into boxing range and brawl a bit. She's not looking, typically, to keep her opponent on the end of her punches. That would make it easier for Carla to clinch. This is a really interesting fight and I feel like I'm starting to talk myself in circles, so I'll keep it at that. My official pick will come Saturday when I do all of my picks and bets, so be on the lookout for that Saturday around noon eastern.
What do you guys think of this fight? What predictions do you have? How do you think it goes? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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