We've made it through a bit of a slog of Fight Nights and now we're truly in the home stretch of 2022. The UFC likes to load up these last couple of PPVs of the year and it's much needed. While UFC 280 from a few weeks ago was one of the best main cards of the year, this week's UFC 281 may be the deepest event of the year. From the first fight of the night until the main event, we'll be in for a fantastic night of competition. I'll be previewing the last three fights of the card and that starts with Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler. With Islam Makhachev capturing the title, that opens up all of the potential title contenders that Oliveira had defeated for another opportunity. Poirier and Chandler are two of the marquee names in the division and a win could potentially vault them into a title fight. I have thoughts on if that is actually what I want to see, but we'll save that for when the time comes. This fight has some heat on it as well since these two have seemingly been eyeing each other ever since Chandler made the move over from Bellator a couple of years ago. Both men are always prepared to go to war, so this is a fight that feels like a guaranteed fight of the night.
We'll start with Michael Chandler. Chandler has been an even more successful signing than I think anyone could've imagined when he came to the UFC in late 2020 (didn't debut until 2021). For a guy who's 2-2 in his only 4 UFC fights, he's easily one of the most popular fighters on the roster and it's been a wild ride. He won his debut against Dan Hooker in impressive fashion before stepping into the vacant title fight against Charles Oliveira. He would lose that and then lose the fight of the year to Justin Gaethje before bouncing back with a brutal knockout victory over Tony Ferguson this past May. Chandler is a veteran of the sport and isn't a guy who gets too high or too low. He's been in there with some of the legends of the sport, so I don't think he's the kind of guy who is too prone to the fight to fight momentum swings. Stylistically, Chandler is a bit of a wildcard. If you only know him from his UFC tenure, then you may not realize it, but Chandler is a base wrestler. What's curious about Chandler is that he just really doesn't go to it all that often anymore. It's kind of hard to say exactly why he has become more and more of a striker, but it's likely a combination of a few things. The first is that I don't think Michael Chandler has the best gas tank in the world. He has this start and stop style that can give off the impression that he has better cardio than I actually think he does. His pacing in fights is just a little hit and miss. He fights in these big explosions of strikes and then he has to rest for a bit. Going away from the wrestling allows him to maintain his cardio for a longer period of time. To finish my thoughts on the cardio conversation, I think Chandler pushes through pretty well. He gets tired, but he still maintains a pretty decent pace for the most part. The second reason that I think Chandler has gone away from wrestling is because he cares more about being exciting. Chandler has bought into the idea of being as exciting as possible and putting on the biggest fights he can. Standing in the pocket and trading in wild exchanges is the easiest way to get the fans behind you and it has worked perfectly. Unfortunately for Chandler, the most exciting way to fight hasn't always been the easiest path to wins, but he's as popular as he's ever been and I assume he's making as much money as he ever has as well. With that said, it's not like Chandler is just brawling for the sake of his paycheck and getting smoked fight after fight. He's an extremely dangerous fighter on the feet and has beaten very good fighters in the stand up. The downside to this strategy for Chandler is that he's just not as clean on the feet and it's not quite as natural for him as wrestling is. Chandler relies heavily on his natural athleticism when he's striking. He's extremely explosive. He has the speed and power in his strikes to put anyone out on the spot. When you combine that explosiveness with years of wrestling experience, you get a guy that is a really tough puzzle to solve. His striking technique isn't nearly as refined. He throws massive hooks and overhands, but the high level striking acumen just isn't quite there. That primarily shows itself in how exposed Chandler is to taking damage. He throws a ton of strikes with a lot of power, but because he isn't particularly technical, he can be hit. We saw this against Oliveira when he was dropped by a clean left hook. The final thing that I think I need to bring up is Chandler's durability. At this point in his career, he's just not quite as durable as he used to be. He's had so many tough battles and crazy fights where he's taken a ton of damage and he just doesn't quite take shots the same way anymore. He got knocked out by Oliveira not too long ago. He was getting blasted by Gaethje and somehow survived to decision despite being dropped. He got clipped by Tony Ferguson in his last fight and had to take a knee before getting back into the fight. Chandler is going to bring the fight and it's going to be hectic. Sometimes it works out for him and other times it comes back to hurt him. He's as dangerous as they come though. His power is going to have to be an equalizer here and I think it would be smart for him to mix in some wrestling, but that remains to be seen.
Dustin Poirier will be making his first appearance since last December and it's really a shame we haven't seen more of him this year. He was probably the hottest fighter on the roster in 2021 and the UFC crushed all of that momentum because they held him hostage because the Nate Diaz situation. Poirier is coming off of his first loss in a few fights when he was submitted by Charles Oliveira in his second shot at undisputed gold. Poirier had a good run after returning from surgery following his loss to Khabib in his first title shot. A win over Dan Hooker in a 5 round war followed by consecutive stoppage victories of Conor McGregor had Dustin's stock as high as it had ever been going into the Oliveira fight. That loss had sting pretty badly as the general consensus was that Poirier was the uncrowned champion. It's been long enough that I assume Poirier feels pretty good coming into this fight after almost a year away. Stylistically, Poirier is a primary boxer, but as most people who have challenged for a title, he's fairly well rounded. A couple of years ago when the "who's the best boxer in the UFC" conversation was a hot topic, Poirier was a name that was firmly in contention and rightfully so. Poirier's southpaw striking is what has carried him to this point and will continue to do so. He brings a really tough combination of power and volume that is some of the best in the division. He's a fairly technical striker as well. He can be sucked into a brawl at times and he's not afraid to take damage in order to dish it out. Poirier's striking defense sort of comes and goes. When it's something he is actively aware of, his defense is sufficient. Nothing detrimental, but not a strength either. When he lets it fade, he starts to brawl in the pocket and can absorb some really clean shots. Luckily for Poirier, his durability has been just fine since he moved to lightweight. He's only been knocked out once at 155 by Michael Johnson and that was 6 years ago now. He's stood toe to toe with some of the hardest hitters in the division since and taken the best they have to offer. He's been hurt and buzzed a couple of times, but Poirier is about as durable as they come, especially considering how many miles are on his tires at this point. With that said, I wouldn't want to test things against someone with power like Chandler has. Dustin has also continued to develop his kicking game, which would be a pretty big development for him. Being able to use left kicks to the body against orthodox fighters would be a tremendous weapon for him and it's something that has grown a ton from when we first saw him in the UFC. The weakness for Poirier has always been really high level grapplers who will aggressively pursue it. There's no shame in getting submitted by Khabib and Oliveira, but that really is the path to beat him. Much like everything else, making the move to lightweight has seen Dustin improve there. Not cutting that extra weight has allowed Poirier to keep a lot of muscle on his frame and the added strength has helped. He's also just improved as a grappler overall over time. He's always had a bit of a sneaky decent submission game, but as he's developed, he's gone away from it more and more. The best way for him to win fights is to keep it standing, but he could latch onto a submission every now and again if someone isn't careful. Poirier's wrestling has come a long way and is at the point where I would call him about average for the division. His stats aren't really that far off from Chandler's, but Poirier really isn't a grappler still. He has solid takedown defense, but nothing that is really out of the ordinary. Poirier has mixed in takedowns of his own at times as well, but that isn't to be suspected here. Dustin is a former title challenger for a reason and is still one of the best lightweights on the planet. It isn't going to be easy for anyone to unseat him.
When trying to break this fight down, I think it really comes down to whether Chandler is planning to incorporate any wrestling or not. A Chandler who is actively looking for takedowns presents a drastically different fight than a Chandler who is just going to kickbox. A fight where Chandler is just going to try and stand and bang with Poirier probably doesn't go very well for him most of the time. Of course, Chandler has the power to knock Dustin out with a huge over hand right or a wild hook, but in terms of pure striking, Dustin really has him covered. Poirier is cleaner both offensively and defensively, more diverse in his range of attacks, and is more durable with better cardio. The power could be the great equalizer for Chandler, but a 15 minute kickboxing match favors Dustin pretty clearly. For Chandler to have more than just the chance of a knockout here, he has to at least present the threat of a takedown. Even if he doesn't get any, if he can keep Dustin honest, that will do wonders for him. Obviously, if Chandler is landing takedowns and gaining top control time, that will contribute to him winning rounds and will give him a better chance at landing some of those power shots. If he's on top, the technical advantage goes out the window a bit and he'll have a chance to unload some huge punches and elbows on Poirier. Even if Poirier is stuffing the takedowns, it could force Dustin to be more focused on stopping them and potentially open himself up to being hit more easily. Chandler getting him to drop his hands could be the opening he needs to sneak one of those hooks through and land the knockout shot. If nothing else, if Chandler can force Dustin to think about takedowns, he might be able to at least slow the pace down. If Dustin knows he is just going to be able to stand and strike, he could get into the flow state early and then Chandler would be in trouble. If Dustin is thinking about potential takedowns, he may be at least a little more cautious and less likely to turn up the volume on Chandler. If they're standing and trading, Poirier's cardio is going to hold up longer, so that is something Chandler will have to be aware of as well. I think a Chandler who wrestles can make this a competitive fight, but a Chandler who just wants to stand will probably fall behind. It will be competitive regardless, but without knockdowns, I don't really see how Chandler takes rounds off of Dustin if we get 15 minutes of kickboxing.
What do you guys think? How do you see this fight playing out? What predictions do you have? Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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