Sorry for the empty week, but with my parents out of town, I had to do a lot more with their house and dog. With new work schedule, I didn't have time to do anything after the Holland vs Thompson card and that is unfortunate because that was a great night of competition. Unfortunately, it was also one of my worst nights betting since I started tracking all of that here, but we'll look to get back on track this week with the last PPV of 2022. This card has certainly lost a lot of it's luster after losing the original main event, Jiri Prochazka vs Glover Teixeira II, but I think it is still a fine card and people who are criticizing it heavily are probably misremembering what a lot of this years PPV cards looked like under the title fights. This was supposed to really end the year with a great stretch of PPV cards and instead is ending the year with a more run of the mill PPV, but it's still largely in line with what the UFC was doing for the first half of the year. It's still a pretty solid offering and I'm excited to see it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Cameron Saaiman defeats Steven Koslow Result: Saaiman by KO (1-0)
We have a fight kicking off the card that is kind of thrown together and very clearly the fight that I care the least about on the night. Saaiman is making his debut after picking up a win on Dana White's Contender Series and I'm really not all that high on his ceiling in terms of the UFC, but he is a rightful favorite here. He's not an amazing grappler, but he's not completely lost. He can get a takedown here and there and can attempt some submissions at times as well. He's not a great striker either, but his at least competent there for the level he's on. He can land with decent enough volume and defend strikes decently at times as well. He should have the striking advantage here and I imagine that is enough to win him this fight. There's some very limited information out there on Koslow, so I'm really grasping for straws here for the most part. We know he is affiliated with 10th planet jiu jitsu and all of his professional wins have come via submission. It's really pure speculation, but I just kind of doubt he has any answers on the feet for Saaiman. There is the possibility he could out wrestle Saaiman and submit him and while it wouldn't completely surprise me, I have no actual reason or evidence to believe that either of those things could actually be the case. I have to go with Saaiman since I actually know that he has a well rounded skill set, even though it is relatively low level.
Betting thoughts:
My betting thoughts on this fight are pretty mild. Seeing Cameron Saaiman at -400 against anyone of consequence is reason enough to think twice, but there's just no evidence on the other side to actually use. It could very well be the case that Koslow was the clear value side and maybe he even pulls of the win, but there's just no stats or video evidence that would suggest to anyone that he should be lined almost anything. Lining this fight was a complete guess because there's just no evidence on Koslow really at all, positive or negative. I guess I don't mind someone just taking the dart throw on Koslow just purely based on the fact that Saaiman realistically shouldn't be -400 against anyone, but that's really the only path to betting this fight on the money line. It could turn out that Koslow is on Saaiman's level and this should've been -110/-110, but it could turn out that Koslow just doesn't belong and Saaiman could've been -700. I honestly have no idea and neither does anyone else. There's no reason to take the chance on an over or under either in my estimation. Easy pass spot.
Vinicius Salvador defeats Daniel da Silva Result: cancelled
This is another odd fight, but it should actually be a good one. Salvador is also making his debut after winning on Contender's Series and I like a lot of his physical traits. He lacks a bit of nuance to his game right now, but that should come in time. I like his power for flyweight and he throws a ton of volume. The technical striking and all around grappling game aren't finished products, but output with power is a pretty good place to start. He takes more damage than you would really like, but he's going to dish it out as well. Da Silva is a very interesting fighter. I don't think he's the worst fighter ever, but his style really handicaps him quite a bit. The issue with da Silva is that he really can't fight beyond a few minutes. It's not even that he has bad cardio, he just has no concept of pace. He is on of those guys who comes out at 100 mph and goes as hard as he can for as long as he can before emptying the tank. For da Silva, that takes around 2-3 minutes. If he doesn't get the win within that time, he basically has no chance and will get finished soon after. I don't doubt that da Silva could finish him in that time, but that's really his only path and the skill gap isn't there to say that it happens at any significant rate.
Betting thoughts:
This is another tough fight to bet as the potential outcomes are so narrow. I really don't see the temptation to be da Silva because a finish within 2-3 minutes would need a much better price than +190 for me to even start to think about it. At the same time, Salvador isn't really at the level where I trust him at -250 in this spot. He should be able to last a majority of the time, but da Silva is just a bit too dangerous for me to feel confident in the Salvador side. The under 1.5 really should be the play, but a flyweight under 1.5 over -200 is a pretty big number. I don't really think da Silva is capable of fighting for 1.5 rounds one way or the other, but I really don't see a ton of value on that play either. Given the relative inexperience in this fight on both sides, I just think its another pretty safe pass spot.
TJ Brown defeats Erik Silva Result: Brown by submission (2-0)
Third straight weird fight to kick off the card, but this one may not be that bad either. This is a fight where I just kind of think TJ Brown is better, even though my opinion of him in general sort of fluctuates. Ultimately, Brown isn't the kind of guy who is going to compete for a championship, but I think he is at least moderately skilled everywhere. He has decent enough boxing and he's going to bring forward pressure. His wrestling is ok and he's going to attempt takedowns at a very reliable rate. He has pretty good cardio to go with it. The big weakness for Brown is that he sort of finds his way out of fights at times and ends up being finished when it really doesn't seem like he should have been. I don't think it's a durability issue, but just that when things get really tough for him, he can get discouraged and then sort of break. I don't take pleasure in saying that as I'm not a fighter myself, but it's just kind of something that seems to be going on with him. Silva is a guy who has some decent individual skills in spots, but he really doesn't combine them in a way that produces consistent wins. Silva is a pretty big and athletic guy, but just a strange combination of skills and techniques. He's not the worst striker in the world, but he just looks awkward at times. He's not awkward in an "unorthodox, but effective" kind of way, but a "he looks unsure of himself at times" kind of way. His grappling seems ok, but I'm not really sure what to make of him as a wrestler. As long as Brown doesn't get himself finished, I think he should probably be ok here.
Bets to consider: Brown ML -111
While potentially losing money on TJ Brown diving into a guillotine or getting TKO'd after dominating two full rounds isn't my idea of a fun Saturday night, I really think he's the side here. To me, he has all of the potential upside in this one. The fight being lined around -110/-110 sort of feels like more of a best case scenario for Silva where there are many scenarios where Brown could look much closer to -200. I wouldn't go heavy on it just because Brown isn't the most reliable and trustworthy fighter of all time, but I really believe he's just the more skilled fighter in this one and he has better cardio. I'll be on Brown in this fight.
Bill Quarantillo defeats Alexander Hernandez Result: Quarantillo by KO (3-0)
This is kind of a tough one for me as I'm generally a fan of Billy Q, while not being much of a Hernandez fan, but I do prefer Billy in this one slightly. With that said, I do think Hernandez has the skills to actually win this fight. He has the power and the overall striking to land hard and often. I think he potentially has the wrestling to get some control time and do some damage on top. Their are two big concerns in this one for Hernandez though and that is his cardio and the weight cut. This is the first time that Hernandez is going down to featherweight in about 10 years. We simply don't know what that cut is going to do to him and if he will be 100% going into the fight. The other thing is the gas tank and it's kind of been hit and miss for Hernandez at times. I don't think he has the best cardio in the world and he can slow down later in fights, but it is also a bit deeper than that. I don't think Hernandez responds all that well to pressure and then he can have a hard time turning the tide in fights. When things are going the way he wants, he can look fantastic. When things start to go down hill for him, he struggles to stop that momentum and get it flowing back in his direction. That really plays right into what Billy does well. He is going to come forward and throw strikes in bunches. I think this fight could be competitive early, but if Hernandez doesn't get him out of there early, the latter part of the fight should go to Quarantillo. The one thing on the Billy Q side is that he really doesn't defend strikes at all. He's going to eat some shots and Hernandez has very real power. I think Hernandez could wrestle him, at least in theory, but I'm not sure he has the gas tank to do that for the entire fight. I do ultimately like the pressure and pace of Quarantillo, but he'll have to be careful early.
Bets to consider: Hernandez ML +140
I really do think Hernandez is the side here on the money line. Quarantillo at -180 sort of feels like his ceiling to me. Unless Hernandez is just severely compromised due to the weight cut, which is possible, then I think this fight looks more competitive than where the line currently sits. Hernandez is going to land with power early and I think he has the other skills to replicate what other fights have done successfully against Billy. I just question whether his cardio can hold up to do it for 3 full rounds under the pressure that Quarantillo is going to bring. I think Hernandez has to be the side at this stage, but at the time of typing this section, the weigh ins haven't happened yet, so I would have to see what he looks like on the scale before I could say for sure.
Chris Curtis defeats Joaquin Buckley Result: Curtis by KO (4-0)
This is a tough fight to get a read on for me, but I think I lean to the Curtis side ever so slightly. This should be exclusively a standup battle because neither guy has shown themselves to be much of a grappler. Buckley may have a chance at a takedown just based on brute strength, but I don't think he would be able to control Curtis, so it doesn't seem all that likely to even be attempted. I think this fight sort of comes down to the power of Buckley against the volume of Curtis. Buckley has very legitimate power and we've seen him get knockouts easily and somewhat consistently. The problem is that I don't really know that he's much of a technical striker and he relies more on wide, looping hooks to do a lot of his damage. I think Curtis is the much slicker and cleaner boxer. If this fight is taking place in close quarters, I think Curtis would have a lot of success there. Farther out at range, we've seen Curtis have his struggles, but I don't really think Buckley is the type of striker who could really take advantage of those weaknesses in the same way we saw Jack Hermansson do to Curtis last time out. Neither fighter really has great defense either. Buckley is there to be hit in the pocket and Curtis is definitely the kind of striker who can punish someone who is deficient there. Curtis doesn't have crazy power, but he does have some and if he's going to be landing flush with his output, he can hurt guys. The defense of Curtis is a big concern though as we even saw him eat a lot of damage against non-strikers like Rodolfo Viera not too long ago. With Buckley's power, Curtis won't be able to take the same amount of clean shots as he has in past fights. I just think Curtis has the better technical skills, so I do lean his way slightly.
Bets to consider: Curtis ML +132, U2.5 rounds -154
I think this fight should probably be lines around a pick em, so seeing Curtis out at +130 makes him the side in my mind. It's not egregious enough that I'm running to the window to play it, but if you were, I think Curtis has to be the side. The under isn't a fantastic line to play, but it is marginally interesting as I do think this fight should finish. Neither guy is defensively sound enough to limit damage, so two guys with good power are going to have the chances to land clean shots. I think someone probably goes down in this one. Either Buckley lands the big one or Curtis just lands too many flush shots and Buckley finally succumbs to one of them. Neither is a strong opinion, but they're at least a bit interesting.
Edmen Shahbazyan defeats Dalcha Lungiambula Result: Shahbazyan by KO (5-0)
Most of it came before I had this blog, but I used to be really high on Edmen. He was young and was just running over whoever the UFC put in front of him. They gave him a huge opportunity against Blonde Brunson and he got dominated and hasn't looked the same since. I don't think he's lost the skills that made me and so many others think so highly of him, but he's been really exposed in a few areas. His bottom game really isn't there and his defensive grappling isn't all that much better. That is further hurt by his cardio, which doesn't really allow him to push much beyond 5 minutes. That brings us to current day where Edmen is lumped in with the large group of fighters who either finish the fight in the first round or they get finished themselves later on. With that said, I really don't think Dalcha is the guy. He really doesn't do much wrestling and what he does is more based on judo throws than traditional takedowns. I don't think he can get Edmen down and I don't think he really has the answers on the feet either. He's going to be a lot shorter and I think Edmen is faster and just the better striker. Dalcha has power and he could knock him out, but I really don't think he's going to land all that much. Dalcha's defense isn't all that great and he's not the most durable guy in the world either. This fight feels like the UFC wants to get Edmen back in the win column and he really should be able to.
Bets to consider: U1.5 rounds +122
There's really no comfortable way to bet this fight on the moneylines. Edmen should have Dalcha covered, but you can't bet a guy with one round of cardio at over -300. At the same time, I don't know anyone who is actually looking or even remotely interested in playing Dalcha here either. The under 1.5 should be the spot though as when Shahbazyan wins, it comes in the first round. You're also covered in the scenario where Dalcha lands one of those big power shots early. I think the under 1.5 at plus money is the way to go here. This is one of those situations where if Edmen is actually justified in being -300, then the under 1.5 is likely to be the value side.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik defeats Chris Daukaus Result: Rozenstruik by KO (6-0)
This is a fight where I'm not really sure what to make of it as a whole. I'm not typically a huge fan of Jairzinho, but Daukaus is on a pretty bad slide right now. Jairzinho is a skilled kickboxer, but his volume is just so low that it's hard to really put a ton of stock into it. He has solid low kicks, good power, and a nice counter heavy striking style, but his lack of output really kneecaps him. He is so committed to countering that he is content to just stand there and get jabbed to death at times. Jairzinho does a good job on the outside though and is able to limit exchanges and not take too much damage. That's important as I'm not sure he's the most durable guy in the world, but it is heavyweight so, that is what it is. I think Daukaus is a moderately skilled pocket boxer, but I really have questions everywhere else. He has solid power as well that he pairs with a high volume style, which has allowed him to pick up wins over lesser competition. He is almost overly aggressive at times, which has caused him to take damage and against some of the biggest hitters in the division, he hasn't taken those shots well. I think he is also a bit uncomfortable on the outside as he just doesn't look as confident there. That is what Jairzinho wants, so Daukaus will have to close the distance. I think the counter ability and power of Rozenstruik is going to be too much in those situations and project that Jairzinho probably knocks him out at some point. If Daukaus were more likely to wrestle, then this could get interesting, but I think the gap in technical striking is going to be his undoing here.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds +134
On the money line side, it's getting to the point where I think Daukaus is the side. Jairzinho is just way too low volume with 0 grappling ability to be almost -200 against a top 15 heavyweight in the UFC. Daukaus has the volume and all grappling upside, so with where the line is headed, he is probably the side I would want to be on at this point. I think the over is more interesting though. Jairzinho has no pace, so he is very capable of having extended fights. I do sort of wonder how aggressive Daukaus is going to be given that he is coming off of two pretty bad looking knockouts. If he comes out very cautious, this could easily go over and you're getting a solid plus money number next to it. I'm not sure if I'll pull the trigger, but I'm considering it.
Jay Perrin defeats Raul Rosas Jr. Result: Rosas by submission (6-1)
Really not trying to be a hater, just a bit realistic. 18 year olds aren't breaking into the UFC often for a reason. Rosas just has very limited experience, despite being very obviously skilled. The best part of his game is his BJJ, which is already above average in the UFC. His submission skills are obvious and he's very aggressive with it. I think he's an ok wrestler, but nothing notable (in a good way or a bad way) there. I think everything else has serious question marks. I'm not sold that he has great or even good cardio and his striking is a complete unknown. I do sort of get the vibe that he is very raw on the feet and that his striking defense isn't all that great. I just think beating someone like Perrin is a lot to ask of him in this spot. I think Perrin is largely a very average fighter, but he has some key strengths. I think his grappling is just ok, but with good takedown defense and solid submission ability, I think he could probably neutralize a lot of the grappling from the Rosas side. If this fight is at range, I have to think Perrin will be the better striker by a noticeable margin. Add in the fact that Perrin has very good cardio and I think he will be very live here. I kind of like Perrin to keep it standing and then take advantage on the feet.
Bets to consider: Perrin ML +186
I'm just not really sure where this line comes from beyond the UFC hype train. Rosas has very real skills and tremendous long term potential, but as things currently stand, he's still so raw. A win over Jay Perrin would be legitimately impressive to me. Regardless of if you favor Rosas or not, -230 is just way too far. The cardio dynamic is what really has me feeling that Perrin needs to be the side in this one. Perrin is going to be there the entire fight and I don't really think Rosas is going to be able to submit him. The betting market doesn't think that he will either, which is why the over 2.5 is -140. I just don't see how the over sits at -140, but Rosas is -230 when we know Perrin has the better cardio. That dynamic doesn't make sense to me at all. I think Perrin has to be the side and if you think Rosas is the side, then you have to have at least some interest in the under I would think.
Ilia Topuria defeats Bryce Mitchell Result: Topuria by submission (7-1)
This is probably the best fight on the entire card and I'm really excited for it. There isn't too many definitive conclusions for me to come to regarding this fight though, so I think it is a good sport to learn a lot about both of these guys. The only think I know for sure going in is that Topuria is a much better striker than Mitchell. Other than that, this one is really up in the air. I think Topuria is the more athletic guy and will be faster, at least early on. The problem there is that his cardio is largely an unknown. The only time we saw him deep into a fight, he gassed out badly, but it was on short notice, so that isn't a reliable data point, but it's really the only one we have. I think Topuria is a decent grappler as well, but not having any success there against Jai Herbert isn't the greatest look either. With Mitchell, I feel comfortable saying that he's probably the better pure wrestler, but in terms of all around grappling, I think they could be about equal. The other thing with Mitchell is that he seems to be leveling up. Farther back in his career, he was a guy who would gas out late in fights. More recently, he's the one pushing a relentless pace and breaking his opponents late. I'm not sure where that came from, but if that is who he is going to be going forward, he could really push Topuria in the second half of this fight, if it gets there. The real question is what happens if Mitchell gets stuck at range. His striking doesn't seem particularly great at all and is on the rudimentary side. If this fight ends up being a kickboxing match, Topuria should butcher him. There's so much unknown, so I feel like I have to lean towards the side of the one thing that I really do know, which is that Topuria is going to have a considerable edge in the striking.
Betting thoughts:
This is a fight that I really have no interest in betting. As the line grows, Mitchell becomes more and more attractive, but that's really a pure play of the numbers and has nothing to do with any real confidence in my read on the fight. I think this fight is going to be a really important data point for the both of them going forward and I just want to take it all in. The over/under is hard to attack as well. If Topuria can stuff the takedowns, it feels like he knocks Mitchell out. If Mitchell is just the better grappler, he probably rides Topuria out on top. I have no real feel as to which of those is more likely, so I have no real feel on how to attack the over/under as well. Just sit back and enjoy this one.
Dricus Du Plessis defeats Darren Till Result: Du Plessis by submission (8-1)
This is another pretty good fight that I am looking forward to quite a bit. These are both fighters where I have some very real questions, much like the previous fight and it really muddies the situation for me. At the end of the day, there's really nothing that I feel that I can confidently rely on with Till, so it's hard to pick him. Over his last handful of fights, he's generally been inconsistent. He's been good against fighters like Stephen Thompson and Robert Whittaker, but then equally as bad against Brunson and Woodley. It's just been hard to know which version of Till is going to show up and then when you factor in all of the time away and all of the injuries, it only makes a consistent Till more unlikely. Aside from that stuff, I do think Till is a very talented striker, but he hinders his ability to have success because he just doesn't really put out volume. His low output style does a decent job of limiting the offense coming back at him most of the time, but it really puts him in a spot where he has to win very narrow decisions unless he can find a finish. He has at times, but I'm really not even convinced his power is anything above average for the division. Dricus is a guy who does generally do things that I look for, at least in part, but he does have some worrisome parts to his game. The positive is that Dricus brings the pressure, volume, and power when he's striking. Till hasn't always responded well to forward pressure, so Dricus has that in his favor. Dricus has good pop in his hands and he is going to be very aggressive. The drawback is that he's so aggressive that he leaves himself open to be hit. Till is a very good counter striker when he's had the opportunities and I could easily see him knocking Dricus out with a counter hook here. However, I think Dricus has the potential to grapple in this one as well. Till hasn't looked very good off of his back or in grappling exchanges as a whole and while I don't think Dricus is going to wrestle his way to wins very often inside the UFC top 15, he is the one who would have success if it got there in this one. Add in that Dricus has looked more durable lately and Till isn't going to push a pace to test his cardio and I think this actually sets up well for Dricus, at least in theory.
Bets to consider: U2.5 -150
As it currently stands, I think the moneyline is probably accurate. With Dricus around -190, I can't put my money down there even though I do think he should be fine. With his defense being so porous and Till probably being a more sound technical striker, especially on the counters, I don't think the value is really there on Dricus at this number. I really don't have much interest in Till though either as his path does seem pretty narrow and then there's all of the health related concerns. His volume and struggles against pressure heavy fighters is enough to keep me off of him. The under, despite being a decent sized number, is the way I would look though. Dricus is going to come out aggressive. I tend to think that he's either going to land that big shot or Till will counter him. In either case, a finish seems like a solid bet to me. The number isn't great in my opinion, so it's not a sure thing, but I would much rather be there than on a side.
Santiago Ponzinibbio defeats Alex Morono Result: Ponzinibbio by KO (9-1)
This is another pretty good fight, even if it doesn't have the name value of Robbie Lawler. The key to figuring this fight out, to me, is trying to determine how much Ponzinibbio has left in the tank. He's starting to get up there in age now and I think his physical traits may be starting to fade, just ever so slightly. He may be a touch slower than he once was, he's getting hit slightly more often, and he may not be quite as durable as he was just a handful of years ago. Even then, he's a very good and talented fighter who I do like in this spot. He should be a better and more diverse striker than Morono. He is going to have a power edge and he's going to bring pressure and volume even still. I think Ponzinibbio could have grappling success as well if he actually wanted to, but I'm not sure that he's all that interested in shooting takedowns as much at this stage. Ponzinibbio is the much more proven fighter against higher level competition and even if he's starting to age out of his athletic prime, I think he still has enough juice to handle this spot. Morono is a fighter that I've really grown to like in the last few years and find myself picking him quite often these days. He's a very good middle third of a division type of fighter who's on a very nice streak to earn an opportunity like this. Ultimately, the athletic disadvantages have held him back in spots like these and I think we see that again. Morono is a good volume based striker, but he's a bit limited beyond that. He doesn't have great power, he doesn't have great speed, and he's just not a particularly fluid athlete. Morono has struggled in the grappling at times and he doesn't defend strikes particularly well either. I don't think he's the most durable guy on top of that. I think his path is a close, volume heavy decision, but with all of the athletic advantages and finishing upside on Ponzinibbio, I have to go with him.
Bets to consider: Ponzinibbio ML -188
I think I would prefer to be on the Ponzinibbio side of this one. If I felt confident that we were going to see a prime version of him, I would be this without an issue. Obviously, we don't know that and at his age, it doesn't seem like either. We're left to wonder whether or not the version of Ponzinibbio that we see is going to end up mostly the guy we know and I do think that is probably the case. After the Jingliang loss, Ponzinibbio has fought two pretty solid fights, even though he lost them both via split decision. Losing splits to Neal and Pereira then going to Alex Morono is a drop off in competition and I think Ponizibbio should be fine. I don't know that I'll play him at that number, but I wouldn't fault anyone who did.
Jared Gordon defeats Paddy Pimblett Result: Pimblett by decision (9-2)
Well, this is really the hill I'll be dying on this week. I think the Paddy hype train suffers a serious set back in this one. In short, I just kind of think Gordon is better in virtually every aspect of MMA. Paddy may be a better athlete and have some more speed and explosion, but that's really about it. Gordon is the better technical striker and it is by a wide margin. He has the better pace, the better defense, and the better cardio. Contrary to what you'll hear some people say, Gordon is also more durable. Gordon got knocked out by Charles Oliveira and Carlos Diego Ferreira a handful of years ago and hasn't been able to shake the label of being chinny. On the other side, Paddy has been put on skates by Kazula Vargas and Luigi Vendramini in the last year plus. If that wasn't enough, Gordon is also a better wrestler with a better control game. He isn't the best all around grappler as he's position over damage, but once he's on top, he doesn't give up position. Gordon has been submitted, but only by extremely high level grapplers, so I think he should stay safe from top position. When Paddy isn't licking Dana White's boots, he is a very popular MMA fighter. The best thing about his game is that he has an uncanny ability to find finishes, mostly submissions. He almost has a Chito Vera like quality about him in that no matter what disadvantage he is at, he is always dangerous. The difference in other finish heavy fighters like Francis Ngannou, Charles Oliveira, and Chito is that those guys have elite qualities that allow them to find those finishes. Chito really is the best comparison, but Chito has that dog in him, as the kids say. Paddy is a decent enough athlete on the feet, but he's not technical at all and his power is below average. He only has one knockout on the feet in his entire career, against Vendramini in his UFC debut. He has solid submissions, but he's not a wrestler, so he's almost never on top. Add in the fact that his cardio isn't very good and he's really submission or bust. He could get to Gordon's back and submit him, but I think that is really his only path. Gordon can grind him out on top or he can handle him on the feet.
Bets to consider: Gordon ML +210
Given everything I just said, it's one thing to pick Gordon, but betting ultimately comes down to the line. The line on Gordon is just incorrect. I think Gordon should probably be a favorite here, so to get him at +210 is a no brainer. Even if you like Paddy and have him favored, there's no way anyone really believes that he's -200 against Gordon. Regardless of your opinion of him, I think everyone can agree that this line is just off. I'll be on Gordon here, probably the most I've ever bet on an underdog (which isn't really that much, but still)
Jan Blachowicz defeats Magomed Ankalaev Result: split draw (9-2)
This is a strange fight and against my better judgement, I sort of have a weird feeling that Jan wins this fight. On the feet, I think this fight is probably pretty close. Both guys are slow paced and kind of prefer to counter. I think the power may be pretty equal, but I give Jan a slight edge in technical striking. I like that he consistently checks low kicks and I think he has an underrated offensive kicking game. We saw him go strike for strike with Israel Adesanya and that's something that I put a ton of stock into. If he could compete in a technical kickboxing match with Izzy, then I don't see why Ankalaev would just be too much to deal with. The other factor that makes me prefer Jan on the feet is that I don't really trust Ankalaev's durability. We've seen him hurt at times in the past and the fight against Thiago Santos was particularly strange. He really shouldn't have had any issues in that fight, but he decided to stand with him and almost got himself knocked out. The other aspect to this fight is the grappling, which favors Ankalaev. He has a vast majority of the grappling upside as there's almost no way that I imagine Jan even shooting a takedown, let alone converting one here. Ankalaev would likely to able to ride out rounds on top if he got the fight down, but Jan does have pretty good takedown defense. The other issue is that Ankalaev isn't really reliable to actually attempt takedowns and if that's the case here, the fight should be close. I don't know why, but I just kind of feel like Jan finds the win, even if Ankalaev has more ways to win.
Bets to consider: Blachowicz ML +270, O2.5 -138
Despite my feeling on Jan, I don't think that is enough of a reason to bet him. I just don't really think there's a ton of ways that Ankalaev actually covers a -350 price tag. I guess if he were to come out with a really wrestling heavy approach and shoot 10 takedowns in this fight, then he could, but we've never really seen him do that. If this is largely a standup fight, then I don't know how Ankalaev covers that number. He's so low output that it's really almost impossible. With the potentially durability questions on top of it, I just don't like Ankalaev's chances of being that dominant, even if he is the rightful favorite (which I think he is). I think the better way to play it is the over 2.5. Both guys are primarily counter strikers, so despite the power on both sides, we could get a lot of standing around. If Ankalaev does wrestle early, I think Jan should be able to stay safe on his back and Ankalaev isn't particularly aggressive on top anyways.
That's it for me. Have a good weekend and enjoy the final PPV of the year. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
TJ Brown ML .5 units at -108 to win .46 units + .46 units
Shahbazyan/Lungiambula U1.5 rounds .5 units at +122 to win .61 units - .5 units
Rozenstruik/Daukaus O1.5 rounds .5 units at +134 to win .67 units - .5 units
Jay Perrin ML .5 units at +186 to win .93 units - .5 units
Jared Gordon ML 2 units at +210 to win 4.20 units - 2 units
Blachowicz/Ankalaev O2.5 rounds .75 units at -138 to win .54 units + .54 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: -2.50 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 8.54 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 6.04 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 9 - 2
Previous Year to Date Record: 305 - 178
Updated Year to Date Record: 314 - 180
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