Well, we've made it to the final card of 2022 already and it's been a pretty solid year for the UFC. It doesn't feel like it's been the best year as there was a real slog between international fight week in July and like October that felt really bad. Like always, the UFC capitalizes off of the big moments and there were plenty of them, especially in the biggest fights. We're looking to finish off the year on a strong note. The bets have gone a bit sideways the last couple of weeks, so we need to bounce back and feel good heading into 2023. The picks have been decent though, so as long as we can keep it up there, it should be a good sign of things to come. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Sergey Morozov defeats Journey Newson Result: Morozov by decision (1-0)
As far as curtain jerkers go, this isn't a bad fight at all. Newson isn't a fighter that I feel like I have a good grasp on despite him having 4 UFC fights under his belt. With that said, I can't say that Newson has really done much to stand out. He's not the worst fighter in the world by any means, but at the UFC level, I don't know if he has the high end skill or trait that will allow him to pick up wins with any degree of consistency. His striking is fine, but he's low volume, so his upside is kind of capped. He's flashes some offensive wrestling ability, but that was only in his last fight, so we'll see if that is going to be part of his game going forward. On top of being low volume, he really doesn't have a ton of power either and his takedown defense hasn't been great in the few times we've gotten to see it. Morozov is actually a fairly skilled fighter. His striking isn't amazing and he's not the highest volume guy in the world either. However, I do kind of think he has the advantage there, though it may be slim. The difference should be in the wrestling though as I don't see a reason that Morozov shouldn't be able to get takedowns whenever he wants. From there, I imagine he would be able to control the fight from top. The one real concern is his durability as we've seen Morozov get chinned a few times now. However, I just don't think Newson has the power to really make him pay or the volume to wear him down. Morozov's grappling should have him in a position to grind out a pretty clean decision win here.
Bets to consider: Morozov by decision +155
While I do think Morozov has Newson covered, he just feels a little too risky at -300. While a bad looking knockout is probably Newson's best way to win, the Morozov durability is enough of a question to scare me off at that price tag. Even if he never gets hurt or wobbled, Morozov just isn't dangerous enough for me to really think there's much value on him at a number that big. With that said, I'm not looking to bet Newson because his path is so narrow. I think the route to playing this fight is probably Morozov by decision at +155. A majority of his win equity is going to be him getting a bunch of takedowns and top control time. Morozov really isn't much of a finisher in general and this fight doesn't really set him up for one either.
David Dvorak defeats Manel Kape Result: Kape by decision (1-1)
This is a fight where I'm having a hard time making a decision. I think the general story here is that if the fight finishes, it's going to be Kape, but if it goes to decision, it's probably going to be Dvorak. Kape is one of the best pure athletes that the flyweight division has and that creates an interesting dynamic. His speed and power combination is just a unique set of skills for the weight class that most of his opponents have never had to deal with. When Kape lets his hands go, he is as dangerous as anyone, but that's really the thing. He just has no consistent volume or output. He can be aggressive at times or for stretches, but he has far too many other stretches where he's doing next to nothing. It feels like he is capable of finishing almost anyone in the division on the feet, but his output is so low that he could also lose to almost anyone by decision. Grappling has largely been his weakness over his career, but his takedown defense has improved by a noticeable amount. He's not a defensive grappling ace or anything, but he stuffs takedowns at an 80% rate in the UFC and that's not nothing. Dvorak is a fighter who I like a decent amount and think this matchup could be a decent one for him. I think Dvorak is the better technical striker with more consistent output. He's not even a huge volume guy, especially for flyweight, but he does a much better job of fighting with a consistent pace. If this fight does get extended, I do expect that he would be winning a majority of the minutes and rounds on the cards. If anyone is going to have success grappling it's going to be Dvorak. He doesn't really shoot takedowns much in recent years, but he used to awhile back, so he could look to go back to that here. The concern for Dvorak is that he was getting hurt in his last fight, which has caused some to question his durability. Potential questions about your chin against someone like Kape isn't a great sign going in, but he doesn't really have a history of being hurt or knocked out a bunch, so I'm not going to make too much of a big deal of it until it proves to be more of a trend. If Kape isn't going to finish, I think Dvorak has a much easier time winning rounds, so I'll go with him here.`
Bets to consider: Dvorak ML +200, Kape by KO +165
If you're like me and of the opinion that Dvorak almost has to be the value side, then I think going with his money line is just fine. At +200, I just think that's where the value lies. Kape does have a vast majority of the finishing ability, but I think that is also almost all of his win equity. I think the odds of him winning a decision are incredibly low. With Dvorak having almost all of the decision win equity with the pacing advantage and all grappling upside, I just don't really see how someone gets to -300 on Kape. If you do want to play Kape, just do it by knockout at +165. That brings a much better number on Kape's best way to win. If Kape isn't going to finish, then Dvorak is almost certainly the side anyways, so I would much rather have that +165 ticket than Kape -300 hoping he can edge out a decision. I'm not sure I'll actually pull the trigger on Dvorak as him being dinged a few times by Nicolau in his last fight is concerning, but he's the only way to go in my mind.
Bryan Battle defeats Rinat Fakhretdinov Result: Fakhretdinov by decision (1-2)
We're sticking with the theme of fights that project to be fairly competitive and hard to predict. This one has some layers as well. I'm someone who has probably underrated Battle in his first few fights before buying in a bit more in his last one. He's not perfect, but he does some good things. On the feet, he's a decent enough striker, but he puts out good volume, which goes a long way. His defense lacks, but he's shown himself to be pretty durable, which he needs to be. His takedown defense hasn't always been that great, but he has a solid overall ground game. He's very active on his back and will work his way up without accepting position or playing the BJJ game from guard. What makes this layered is that Battle is cutting down to welterweight for the second fight in a row and doing it on shorter notice. It's hard to say exactly how that effects both his durability and cardio, but I'm siding with the idea that he will end up being ok. Rinat isn't a guy that I'm fully bought into yet, despite me being intrigued with him. He's not a particularly great striker and that is going to hold him back at some point, if it's not this fight. He throws some big shots, but he's not technical at all and his defense also isn't very fundamentally sound. He's a grappling heavy fighter who is very reliable to shoot takedowns and have cardio that allows him to do so for the full 15 minutes. I'm just not sure how good of a pure wrestler he is right now. He is more position over submission, but Battle isn't the kind of guy who is easy to hold down. Rinat's takedowns aren't the most technical and while I think he could get some early, I'm not convinced he is going to be able to get Battle down and hold him down consistently in this one. If he can't, I don't think he really has much of a chance on the feet, so I have to go with Battle here.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -168
The moneylines here really don't peak my interest a ton. If I had to pick a side, it would be Battle, but I'm just not all that intrigued at +124. The short notice aspect of it and how that could impact his cardio and potentially his durability as well is enough for me to not want to put money down on him. At the same time, I think approaching -160 may be the correct line or maybe even the ceiling for Rinat. I don't suspect that he's going to finish Battle and if he can't, that leaves him in a spot where he has to consistently land takedowns and then control him. If he can't do that, I don't really like his chances at all. That's why I think the best play would be the over. I don't think either guy is getting finished on the ground. Neither guy has great defense on the feet, but both have been pretty durable and Battle doesn't really have that type of power where I would be concerned with him landing a one hitter quitter with a right hand or something. I don't know that -168 is the best possible number you can get here, but it should go over a vast majority of the time in my estimation.
Maheshate defeats Rafa Garcia Result: Garcia by decision (1-3)
We are right back in that same spot here with this fight. Maheshate is the better striker in this fight and it isn't really that close. He's also a lot bigger, a lot faster, and the much more explosive athlete in general. The problem is that he really hasn't looked good in the grappling in the little bit that we've seen from him. He's also very young and probably improving on a daily basis. Garcia is largely the necessary style to give him problems though. He's a better wrestler and is likely to get at least a takedown or two at some point. The weakness for Garcia has been on the feet where his striking defense has caused him to get hit way more than you would like. The reason that I ultimately decided to go with Maheshate here is that I don't trust Garcia's cardio. He is very reliable to slow down at around the midpoint of the second round. Maheshate has shown very good cardio when he's allowed to strike. Now, it remains to be seen how that translates to a grappling heavy fight, but I know for sure Garcia is going to slow down and eventually gas out. That's really the separating factor that has me leaning Maheshate's way.
Bets to consider: Maheshate ML +114
This isn't really a passionate take, but as Garcia has taken some money, I think I would rather have the plus money side of this one. I get people who are on Garcia, but the cardio and potential improvements on the Maheshate side just scare me off. If Maheshate is better and can either stuff the shots or work back up, I don't think Garcia has any answers for him on the feet. The strength of competition for Garcia is something I've thought about as well and maybe he's just on a level above him, but I just don't have a strong enough feeling there. I'm passing on Maheshate as well because of the actual video evidence we have of him grappling. While he could have made improvements, it is just speculation. Garcia may gas out late, but if Maheshate hasn't improved his defensive grappling, he's going to struggle in the first half of the fight.
Said Nurmagomedov defeats Saidyokub Kakhramonov Result: Nurmagomedov by submission (2-3)
I'm not sure why this fight is so high because it could end up being one of the best fights of the entire night. There's a lot of parallels between this fight and the previous one. Nurmagomedov is the better striker in this one, as well as being much more tested recently and I think that wins out. On the feet, I really don't think this is particularly competitive. Nurmagomedov is faster, more dynamic, and more diverse of a striker. He throws decent output and does a fairly nice job of limiting damage. Sometimes he gets into trouble by relying too much on flashy spinning kicks, but that should be something he cleans up. He's also not a bad grappler either. He doesn't really shoot for many takedowns of his own, but he's proven to be a very solid defensive wrestler. He's stopping takedowns against decent competition at a 70% rate and his submission game can be pretty dangerous. The one real concern is that he does have a tendency to slow down late, but I think the style dynamics help him here. Kakhramonov is the grappler of the two and he is a pretty good one. He's reliable to bring a forward pressure heavy style and shoot as many takedowns as he has to. The story for him in this fight and most others is if he can get takedowns or not. If he can, he's probably going to win. If he can't, then he may be in a rough spot. I really don't think he has any answers for Nurmagomedov on the feet and his forward pressure could result in him just walking into big strikes. The difference for me this time was Nurmagomedov's more recent success against better competition. We've seen Nurmagomedov stop takedowns and then do damage against some pretty good fighters in the last couple of years, while Kakhramonov's success has come in a lower tier of competition. I do lean Nurmagomedov's way slightly, but this should be a really good fight.
Bets to consider: Nurmagomedov ML +100, FGTD -134
It's hard for me to say this is a super passionate take because it's really not. However, I just sort of feel like Nurmagomedov deserves to be the small favorite here. In what projects to be a pretty competitive fight, I think the guy with the noticeably better competition and experience should be favored. I just feel like I know more about his skill set and how it matches up against higher level fighters, where Kakhramonov doesn't have that. His best win is Ronnie Lawrence, which is a good win, but not the same as what Nurmagomedov has had. I think having him as the guy who sits around-130-150 heading into the fight makes more sense than the other way around. As for the over 2.5 and fight goes the distance, I think getting over 50 points difference in price makes the goes the distance worth it for me. I don't think Kakhramonov has much finishing upside at all, while Nurmagomedov's is pretty limited. I don't think he'll submit Kakhramonov and while a knockout is possible, I don't think it's really all that likely.
Jake Matthews defeats Matthew Semelsberger Result: Semelsberger by decision (2-4)
Matthews is coming off of probably the best performance of his career or at least his best in awhile. In a vacuum, he's a fighter that I really like. It's really the intangibles that have held him back at times, especially his fight IQ. That's really what has me worried because, skill for skill, I think Matthews is just better. On the feet, this fight should be marginally competitive. I do think Matthews is just a bit more technical and that gives him the edge, but just slightly. The difference in this fight is that Matthews is a significantly better grappler. I don't think he's an especially great grappler overall, but he has a huge advantage there. We've seen Semelsberger struggle with takedowns and look even worse off of his back not too long ago. If he can keep it standing or if Matthews IQ gets in the way again, Semelsberger has a shot. He throws good volume on the feet with solid enough power. However, if Matthews is prepared to wrestle, I feel like he should win pretty cleanly.
Bets to consider: Semelsberger ML +225
Despite what I just said, Semelsberger almost has to be the side. Matthews is coming off of being an underdog to Andre Fialho and is now almost -300 against Semelsberger. I just don't think that really makes a ton of sense. That Fialho line was bad, but so is this one. I do think Matthews should be favored and maybe even heavily, but not like this. If I felt more confident that Matthews would come out and look to execute the best possible gameplan, then maybe I would be interested. However, not only do we not have that evidence, we have evidence of Matthews doing the exact opposite. Even then, I'm not really all that tempted to take the plunge on the Semelsberger side. He should just be the better fighter, but not-300 better, especially if he decides to stand and swing it out on the feet.
Cheyanne Vlismas defeats Cory McKenna Result: McKenna by decision (2-5)
After ping ponging back and forth on Cory McKenna earlier in her career, I'm sticking to my guns and picking against her. She's not the worst fighter ever or anything like that, but her athleticism is so limited that it really caps her skills. Her striking really isn't as good as I once thought. She doesn't have great volume and she takes too much damage. She really lacks the hand speed to land consistently or with any significant power. Her grappling is ok and she's decent enough on top, but if she can't get takedowns, she's going to be in a bad spot. Her lack of physicality and strength in the clinch limits her abilities to get takedowns a lot of times as well. I know Vlismas struggled grappling in that one fight against Ruiz, but outside of that, her grappling really hasn't seemed that bad. Even if she gets taken down, I imagine that Vlismas is able to work back up. On the feet, this fight is going to get really ugly for McKenna. Vlismas is going to be able to do basically whatever she wants and I think she can win a clean 30-27 if she stays upright.
Bets to consider: Vlismas ML -188
I really think I would rather bet Cheyanne here to be honest. McKenna is going to have to get takedowns and then hold Vlismas down and control her. I'm not sure if she can get takedowns, but I do feel somewhat confident that Vlismas would be able to get back up. If this is 15 minutes on the feet, Vlismas is going to look like a much larger favorite. She's the better striker and is significantly more athletic and explosive. I think I would rather be on the Vlismas side than McKenna.
Michal Oleksiejczuk defeats Cody Brundage Result: Oleksiejczuk by KO (3-5)
This is a fight that should be fairly binary in nature. Either Brundage is going to get takedowns and he probably finishes Michal or he doesn't and Michal finishes Brundage standing. On the feet, I don't really see this being competitive. Michal is extremely aggressive and he's a pretty good striker. He has good enough power and he will come forward and bring the fight to his opponent. Brundage, despite having a bit of pop, really doesn't present much standing. He's low volume and I don't really even trust his cardio all that much. I'm not sure he's the most durable guy in the world either. However, Brundage is a competent grappler and Michal has struggled there at times in the past. He hasn't looked great stopping takedowns and he has honestly looked worse on his back. I suspect that if Brundage does get him down, he can advance to a more dominant position somewhat easily and probably get the finish not too long after that. I just am on the side that Michal comes out and puts it on Brundage early and knocks him out, but I don't think you can sleep on Brundage either.
Bets to consider: U1.5 rounds-138
I'm really not all that tempted by the moneyline situation. You really can't bet Michal here. I do think he is going to win, but -290 is way too far for someone with the history of grappling struggles that Michal has. If Brundage can get takedowns, he may look -300. Brundage would have to be the side, but I'm not really looking to lose money on him in this spot. If I felt better about his cardio then maybe, but I don't so I'm just going to leave it be. I think the under is a much better spot. Michal is the kind of fighter who is going to finish the fight one way or another. If he is having success early, I think Brundage will probably succumb to the pressure and go down before too long. If he is too aggressive, then Brundage could put him on his back and probably finish him just as easily. Either way, I think the under 1.5 rounds is probably the way to go with this fight.
Bobby Green defeats Drew Dober Result: Dober by KO (3-6)
This is another really close fight and I'm strangely excited for it. I'm going against my better judgement and picking Bobby Green here. This fight should take place on the feet as Green doesn't wrestle and Dober really doesn't shoot many takedowns these days either. Even if someone did, I don't think they'll have much success in finishing a takedown. On the feet, there's a few dynamics at play. The first is that Dober is going to have a lot of advantages in the optics department. He's going to be the one coming forward, he's going to throw volume, and he's going to be throwing and landing the harder strikes. The reason I do ultimately lean towards Bobby is that I do think he is the slicker and more technical striker, especially in the close range boxing. On top of that, Dober's defense really isn't that great. I think that as long as Green is putting out volume, he's going to be able to land at an extremely high rate. It's going to be close, but I just lean towards Green's better striking and the likelihood that he is going to land at an extremely high rate.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -182
While Green is the underdog, I really don't have a ton of interest in looking to bet him. This fight just feels like it is going to be very narrow and Bobby Green is always in those split decision type fights. I'm just not really looking to make that play on this fight or on the Dober side because I just don't feel passionately enough on either side. I do think the over is the play here though. Bobby Green isn't finishing Dober. Dober is too durable and Bobby isn't the kind of striker. Dober has the power, but Green is also really durable and he does a decent job of limiting damage and even the shots he does take are rarely clean, flush shots. I think this fight should go over a vast majority of the time.
Julian Erosa defeats Alex Caceres Result: Caceres by KO (3-7)
This fight is going to be a strange one. Neither of these fighters are particularly reliable, which makes it hard to figure out exactly what we are going to see. I have to side with Erosa though as he's very reliable to come forward, push the pace, and be aggressive. I think he's probably better and he should have a grappling advantage, but it just feels messy. Caceres may be better on the outside in terms of striking, but I don't really think he's going to keep it there. He also doesn't have much power. Erosa's durability is inconsistent as well. Sometimes he can get into a war and come out on top, but other times he gets hurt by guys who don't really have that kind of power. Erosa's striking defense is really porous, so Caceres should be able to land whenever he wants. Caceres does a bit better defending, but once Erosa is on the inside, I think he'll be able to land without too much issue as well. I just think I feel better siding with the more dangerous game of Erosa, but I really don't feel great about it.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +130
This feels like a fight that you should probably avoid, but if you want to bet it, I guess the under is the route. I don't really want to bet Caceres, but I'm not really looking to play Erosa at -170 either. I just don't really trust either guy enough to actually want to plant my flag on either side because it's almost impossible to know what to expect from both sides. I think the under could be interesting. Erosa doesn't defend strikes at all and Caceres can take some damage on the inside as well. Erosa has the potential to find a submission as well. I don't know. I think this is just a pass spot.
Amir Albazi defeats Alessandro Costa Result: Albazi by decision (4-7)
I don't really have much to say here. Costa is making his UFC debut and I don't really think he is on Albazi's level right now. He's not the worst striker in the world and he does have some power, but I think that is really about it. I think Albazi should be able to handle him on the feet if he really wanted to. I didn't see any video of Costa grappling offensively or defensively, so maybe he is capable there. However, my suspicion is that is where he is weak and Albazi would be able to handle him and potentially finish him there. I really don't have much to add beyond that. Albazi should be better and should win without too much of an issue.
Betting thoughts:
There's no real way to bet this fight. All of the Albazi lines are extremely inflated and probably rightfully so. I don't really see any reason to take a shot on any of the Costa lines either. Just save your money.
Damir Ismagulov defeats Arman Tsarukyan Result: Tsarukyan by decision (4-8)
It pains me to pick against Arman Tsarukyan again, but here I am. This should've been the main event as this fight is awesome. It really has it all and it deserved to be 5 rounds. The reason I decided to go with Damir is because I think his advantage in the striking is the biggest gap in any one skill in this fight. I think Damir is going to be noticeably better on the feet. He fights with a style that seemingly has found the perfect balance of volume and pace, but also limiting damage and not over exposing himself. Damir mixes in takedowns at times, but he's not an efficient wrestler and I don't think there's any reason he would try for one here. He is a very good defensive grappler though and even if Arman got a takedown, I would be pretty surprised if he actually held Damir down and controlled him. Tsarukyan is more of the grappler here and I do think he may be able to get a takedown or two, especially early. Arman is the more athletic guy and will have the speed and explosiveness advantages. I just don't really believe that he'll be able to hold Damir down because no one else has and Arman isn't really the best control grappler in general. On the feet, Arman couldn't really out strike Gamrot, so I don't see any reason he is going to be able to out strike Damir in this one. I just kind of think the style dynamics play out in Damir's favor a bit.
Bets to consider: Ismagulov ML +168
I don't understand how this line has gotten out this far. I'm not saying Damir should be a heavy favorite either because the speed, athleticism, and wrestling of Arman is for real. He could very well win this fight. I just don't get how anyone could see him at -200 or better. In a fight that I think should be a 50/50 fight and will probably play out that way, I want to be holding the +168 ticket.
Jared Cannonier defeats Sean Strickland Result: Cannonier by decision (5-8)
This is a pretty interesting fight and I came out of it slightly on the Cannonier side. Strickland is the volume heavy striker, but he does it in a bit of a unique way. He is going to bring the forward pressure and volume based striking, but he is going to do it in the pocket. He is primarily a boxer and really doesn't throw kicks or wrestle much at all. His defense isn't that great as he's a bit stationary, especially with his head movement, and he stands very straight up and down, which exposing him a bit more than the typical fighting stance. While he will have the volume advantage, I really don't think it's going to be at the forefront of this fight. I think Cannonier's power is going to be the most noticeable thing of the night. Strickland is going to stand in front of him in range and is going to be hit. When Cannonier connects, he is going to do a lot of damage and I expect that will hold true in this one. I also really like Cannonier's low kicks in this one. With Strickland standing so tall all of the time, his legs are exposed and he really doesn't do much to protect them. I think Strickland's forward pressure is going to result in him walking into a lot of big power shots from Cannonier and I think Jared can eventually knock him out.
Bets to consider: Cannonier finish only -158
I think the interesting style dynamics here make the -110/-110 money line make sense. I guess I would prefer the Cannonier side if forced to choose, but this fight is weird enough that I think those lines are actually about right. However, I think the Cannonier finish only at -158 is a solid play. His power certainly gives him a majority of the finishing upside, especially with Strickland's defense. On the otherside, I don't really know what Strickland's path to a finish even is. Cannonier is extremely durable and wasn't finished by some of the best fighters in the entire division, who are much more known finishers than Strickland. Cannonier is a finisher and Strickland isn't. I think Cannonier has almost all of the finishing potential, so to get him at -158 there is a pretty clear spot for me.
That is it. The last picks and bets of the year. Thanks for reading all year and we'll be looking to improve on everything in 2023. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Sergey Morozov by decision .5 units at +155 to win .78 units + .78 units
Oleksiejczuk/Brundage U1.5 rounds .75 units at -138 to win .54 units + .54 units
Green/Dober O2.5 rounds 1.5 units at -182 to win .82 units - 1.5 units
Damir Ismagulov .5 units at +168 to win .84 units - .5 units
Jared Cannonier finish only 2 units at -158 to win 1.27 units void
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: -.68 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 6.04 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 5.36 units
2022 Year End Total: + 5.36 units ( - 3.34 units since started tracking on Bet MMA)
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 5 - 8
Previous Year to Date Record: 314 - 180
Updated Year to Date Record: 319 - 188
2022 Winning Percentage: 0.62919 = 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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