The UFC will return to action and make it's 2023 debut and it is desperately needed. We haven't had much MMA over the last month or so outside of the Bellator vs Rizin card and combat in general has slowed. I guess we have the KSI boxing match to look forward to... The UFC normally likes to kick off the year with a little more of a high profile main event, but they didn't go that route this year. Originally, we were slated to see Nassourdine Imavov vs Kelvin Gastelum, but then Gastelum was forced to pull out with a pretty nasty looking mouth injury. Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmanov was scheduled as the co-main and we lost that one as well. The replacement main of Imavov vs Sean Strickland isn't a bad one, but the card has definitely taken a hit. As I'm sure you've heard and read from multiple people at this point, this card doesn't set up all that well for betting purposes. There aren't a ton of places I feel all that passionate about, but I'm sure as the week goes on I'll find a few places to make a play. In general though, I do think this will be a solid fight night offering when all is said and done with 2023. We finished 2022 on a down swing, especially from a betting perspective. The bets tracked on this page ended the year in the positive, but from the time I started tracking on BetMMA, we ended the year with a negative. We need to turn that around and there's no better time than the first card of the year. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Sijara Eubanks defeats Priscila Cachoeira Result: Cancelled
We should at least get a fun fight to kick off the year in this one. Cachoiera is pretty reliable to do what she does, which always makes her fights a place that I look to bet and feel confident picking either for or against. Her general strategy is just to create chaos and hope for the best and it has generally worked well for her. She's willing to absorb damage to land her own and her durability has generally held up and her power allows her to win a lot of those exchanges where both land. The positives are kind of limited though as Cachoeira can be had in more than a few ways. She's not the most technical striker in the world, so someone who can move their feet and stay on the outside can have success against her striking. She also doesn't really have much in the way of striking defense. The big problem has been her grappling though as she doesn't stop takedowns well and her bottom game is not existent. That should generally play into what Eubanks wants to do. She should be able to get takedowns here and I'm not so sure it will take more than one for Sarj to finish this fight. We've seen her finish fights on the mat early before and this could be another one. If for some reason she doesn't, I think she could also win this fight standing. She's the better technical striker and has some power of her own. The one real concern on the Sarj side of things is that she doesn't have the best cardio in the world. If Cachoeira can find a way to survive early, she could put it on her late and find a finish. The problem with that is I'm not convinced Cache could actually stop takedowns from a gassed out Eubanks anyways. I think Sarj should be ok here and should probably finish the fight.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -172
Unfortunately, I have kind of missed the boat on betting this fight, at least a little. For me, Eubanks was the side and now that she's gotten out to -265, I'm not sure how much value is left to be had. At this price, I still do think I would rather be on Eubanks, but it's not as great of a play as it was just a few days ago. There are several scenarios at play where Sarj could look -500 though, so I would still be ok with a play on her at this number and I may even pull the trigger myself. The under 2.5 has grown a bit as well, but it may still be playable. The safest way for it to cash is the Sarj takedown and submission early in round 1, but even if they stay standing, both women could finish. Cachoeira is wreckless and forces potential finishing sequences all fight and both women have good power. I'm not one to bet juiced unders in general, especially women's flyweight, but this one seems justified to me.
Charles Johnson defeats Jimmy Flick Result: Johnson by KO (1-0)
A bit of a strange fight here, but could be an interesting one. Flick is an odd fighter in general and he was an intriguing enough guy before he retired after his first true UFC fight a couple of years ago. He's taken that time to get healthy and now he is ready to return, but it's hard to know what to expect from him after all that time away. He's a heavy submission reliant fighter, which isn't something I really like to be on the side of very often. I don't think his pure wrestling is really anything to write home about and his striking leaves a lot to be desired. He's on the low volume side and just doesn't always look that comfortable when he's at range. I don't think his gas tank is all that great and that has contributed to him fading later in fights and getting finished. He hasn't done a great job of turning the tide in fights whenever momentum starts to build against him either. He has a tendency to allow things to snowball on him and then get finished in the second half of the fight. I do ultimately think Johnson has the skillset to deal with most of what Flick is going to bring him. Johnson did a pretty good job defensively grappling against Mokaev and he never gave up compromising position there. I find it hard to believe Flick will be able to do more than what Mokaev did. I'm a bit wishy washy on Johnson's striking as he has a lot of the Bobby Green style in him, but he's just not as good. He throws decent volume, but it doesn't always feel like it because he's so willing to accept the back foot. However, I don't really think that will be as big of an issue here. Johnson should be multiple levels above Flick in the striking and he should win this fight relatively cleanly. He may even be able to find a finish in the second half of the fight.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -130
This is one where the moneyline really isn't playable to me. I'm not looking to play Johnson at -390 as it wouldn't completely shock me to see him get submitted. I also just don't really think he's that kind of fighter. He's not a submission threat, especially against Flick and he doesn't really have the power to finish fights that way either. I don't think the skill gap is there to think Johnson gets close to -390 when his most likely path is via decision. His best route to a finish is that Flick just gasses and folds late. At the same time, I don't know how anyone could play Flick. Mokaev couldn't really get Johnson into any bad spots, so it's hard to believe Flick will. It's hard to even know what Flick will look like after a few years away from competition. I think the over 1.5 at -130 is a decent look though. I think Johnson can avoid the early submissions and he's not aggressive enough to finish Flick in the first half of the fight most of the time in my estimation. I'll probably be on the over as one of my bets this week.
Dan Argueta defeats Nick Aguirre Result: Argueta by decision (2-0)
This is pretty easily the fight that I have the least to say about on the card. Aguirre is a short notice replacement and I don't really know that much about him at this juncture. He has a decent record, but based on what I have seen on video from him, his level of competition is pretty low. It's hard to get a real gauge on where his skills are because he's just fighting guys who he's simply better than by a noticeable margin. We also have no idea what his cardio is like because he rarely fights beyond the first round. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I have very little to go on that suggests Aguirre is actually UFC level, at least right now. Argueta is a guy who I can't say I'm particularly high on either. He had a lot in common with Aguirre coming into his UFC debut in that he had a decent record, but had no reliable level of competition. The two best guys that he's fought are Ricky Turcios and Damon Jackson and he lost both of those fights. I have to go with Argueta here though as he was at least preparing for a fight on this date and he is somewhat well rounded, even if it is at a low level. I'm not convinced Aguirre is UFC level and putting him in there on short notice is only going to make it tougher on him.
Betting thoughts:
I don't really see the need to lose money on this fight. Is Argueta a -590 fighter? Probably not. However, losing money on Nick Aguirre is not how I'm looking to start 2023. The under on this fight is juiced as well, so I don't really see the spot to play this one. I'll just be using this one as a data point for both guys.
Allan Nascimento defeats Carlos Hernandez Result: Nascimento by submission (3-0)
This is a fight that is one of those ones where I wonder how the match makers came up with it. I think Nascimento is just the more skilled fighter by and large. On the feet, this one could be moderately competitive because Hernandez is the much more aggressive and willing fighter. However, Nascimento is the more skilled striker and just has the wider array of weapons and techniques at his disposal. He's the more diverse and advanced striker in my opinion. In terms of grappling, I give Nascimento the slight edge there as well. I don't think either guys is an exceptionally great wrestler, so I'm not sure this one will ultimately hit the mat, but if it does, I think Nascimento has the better all around ground game. The one concern is that if he ends up on bottom, he is pretty reliable to stay there. He's one of those fighters who just gets into these modes where he is content to throw up arm bar and triangle attempts from guard and then ends up spending long stretches on his back. This is kind of a strange fight as I don't think the skill margins are huge, but I do just slightly prefer Nascimento almost everywhere. On top of that, Nascimento is the bigger, stronger, more physical athlete, so I do think this should be his fight.
Betting thoughts:
This is a really tricky fight to figure out how to approach from a betting perspective. On one hand, I think Nascimento is better everywhere. However, I don't think he's better by a significant margin anywhere. Does that translate to him being a -355 favorite or looking like one most of the time? Probably not. The issue though is that I don't really know what Hernandez's path to victory really looks like other than him somehow ending up on top and Nascimento happily fighting off of his back for two full rounds. I don't know that Hernandez is a good enough wrestler to force that position and I'm not convinced Nascimento couldn't sweep him and potentially gain top position anyways. I don't think I have a good enough feel on this fight to really feel comfortable playing anything. The over is -190 and maybe that's not the worst look in the world at the end of the day, but it's not really a play that I'm looking to make right now.
Javid Basharat defats Mateus Mendonca Result: Basharat by decision (4-0)
Basharat is a guy that I was a bit critical of going into his last fight, especially his grappling, and that went very poorly for me. Basharat looked pretty good and while I'm not ready to project him as a future champion, he certainly proved me wrong for the time being. I really think Basharat should be in a pretty good spot in this fight. I kind of think he's just the better fighter in this one. He's not the most powerful guy in the world, but he's the better technical striker and he has the more reliable output. Based on what we saw last time, he should also be able to grapple his way to a win if he wants to. Mendonca's best path to a victory is probably via knockout as his power is one of the only parts of his game that I rate with any UFC legitimacy. He has some pop, but I don't think he's a good enough technical striker to really do anything with it against real UFC caliber fighters. He has flashed some degree of submission ability, but I doubt he can end up on top here and Basharat is good enough to not get submitted from guard. Aside from the skill gap, Mendonca doesn't have reliable volume in the striking and his cardio also hasn't always held up. This should be a good spot for Basharat to continue his hot streak.
Bets to consider: U2.5 -116
I think the moneyline has just gotten to the point where I'm not really looking to jump in on it. Basharat is rightfully a big favorite, but I can't imagine there's really a lot of meat left on the bone at around -350. I really have no interest in the Mendonca side though as I think his chances here are very slim. I think the under is interesting enough though at a near pick em price. A vast majority of Mendonca's win probability is via knockout, so it covers essentially all of his winning potential. At the same time, Basharat is enough better that he probably should finish and could do so anywhere. With Mendonca's gas tank problems, he could just end up folding late in the fight and it wouldn't surprise me either.
Mateusz Rebecki defeats Nick Fiore Result: Rebecki by decision (5-0)
Another really random fight, but I am at least moderately intrigued to see what Rebecki can do here as he has a skill set that is sort of made to win a lot of these lower level fights. He's a really big, strong, athletic guy with good cardio. That is really the archetype to win a lot of fights, even in the UFC. He's a decent enough wrestler and he can pretty much relentlessly attempt takedowns for the entirety of the 15 minutes and that really should be enough in this one. At some point, Rebecki is going to run into someone who can force him to fight at space and I'm not so sure that will go well for him, but it's going to be a few fights before that is likely the case. Fiore is primarily a BJJ based fighter and I'm really not sure what to make of him. This isn't a good matchup for him though. Fiore is a pretty big guy for the division, but I don't think his striking is good enough to really utilize that in this matchup. I don't expect that he'll find a submission from guard and would be even more surprised if he found his way to top position. This should be a good night for Rebecki in all likelihood.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds +124
Obviously, by this point, the line on Rebecki is just too far gone. I'm definitely not looking to play Fiore here either. I think at small plus money, I may be interested in taking the shot on the over. Fiore isn't going to get submitted and I don't really think he submits Rebecki either. He is competent enough on the ground where I think he could maintain a relatively safe position and end up losing via decision, but not getting pounded out. I think the over is actually an interesting look.
Abdul Razak Alhassan defeats Claudio Ribeiro Result: Alhassan by KO (6-0)
This fight is either going to be wild and finish very quickly or it's going to become a sloppy mess late. I ultimately side with Alhassan as he's just the much more proven commodity. Ribeiro is a guy coming off of Dana White's Contender Series who is really more physical traits than refined MMA skills. He's a big, strong, powerful dude, but that will only go so far. He could certainly knock Alhassan out, but I think the MMA part limits that upside a bit. He'll be bigger and longer, but he's not really the caliber of striker who can take advantage of those things. His cardio isn't trustworthy either and his strength of competition is questionable at best. Meanwhile, I think Alhassan is very proven in a lot of those areas. He's not known for being a technical striker, but he should have the advantage there in this one. He's not known for having the best gas tank, but he should be fine there as well. Alhassan also has the power to win a fire fight if it divulges into that. I doubt it happens, but I do think Alhassan could probably grapple his way to a win in this one if he really wanted to. This fight likely won't show a lot of that and it probably comes down to who lands the big punch first, but I really think Alhassan has the wider array of skills if he can show them.
Bets to consider: Alhassan ML -104
At very slight dog money, I think Alhassan is worth the shot. He has more ways to win and a more proven skill set against real competition. Ribeiro has used his superior athletic traits to destroy forgettable regional competition while Alhassan has fought and beaten real UFC caliber fighters. I think Alhassan is the better fighter and I think he is more equipped to win this fight almost everywhere it could go. I think he is worthy of being a smallish favorite, so I'll probably take a small poke at him in this one.
Umar Nurmagomedov defeats Raoni Barcelos Result: Nurmagomedov by KO (7-0)
We're getting the next appearance from rising contender Umar Nurmagomedov and it should be his toughest test to date. This is going to be a tough fight for him as I suspect that Barcelos will be able to force Umar to do things he generally doesn't prefer to do. I've always been a fan of Barcelos and the things he can do well should help him here. He's a pretty good athlete and he has good cardio. He isn't on his best stretch over his last handful of fights and his striking defense does have a good bit to do with that, but I don't think this is the fight to expose that too much. Umar is going to be looking for takedowns and he'll probably get at least some, but Barcelos is probably going to stuff a lot of them. He has very good takedown defense and he's a pretty solid grappler in general. The worry is that Barcelos could potentially give his back to try and stand up and if that is the case, I think Umar takes the opening and is very live to find a submission at that point. Umar is also a better striker than he's given credit for and Barcelos hasn't always had a ton of success against guys who really keep the fight on the outside. If Barcelos can close the distance and keep it in more boxing range, that's where he can win. All the way out is competitive and all the way in is where Umar wants to be. There is the potential upside that Umar just kind of wipes him out in the grappling and that certainly wouldn't shock me, but I don't think that is especially likely either. Umar deserves to be a decent sized favorite here.
Bets to consider: Barcelos ML +540
When I said Umar should be a nice sized favorite, I was talking in the -220 range or so. -850 is pretty extreme. I'm not really sure what anyone is seeing that suggests that Umar is going to just steamroll Barcelos here. Raoni has never been bulldozed in the grappling before and I don't expect that to start now. If that's the case, then Umar doesn't reach anywhere near that price. The line at one point got so out of control that I was almost concerned that we were getting another Krause/Minner situation and Raoni was going to come out injured. Raoni is certainly behind the 8-ball and it won't be an easy fight for him by any means. However, he's being lined like he's some fringe UFC level fighter when that is far from the case. If I ultimately play this, I won't be going into the fight necessarily confident that I'm coming out a winner, but this sort of feels like a spot where you have to trust the process and hope for the best.
Raquel Pennington defeats Ketlen Vieira Result: Pennington by decision (8-0)
I've never really been the highest on Ketlen Vieira and I don't think I'm going to start here. She's not a bad fighter by any means and she clearly has the potential to do great things, but she just doesn't really put those skills together in away that yields a consistent, process based approach to wins. She's a pretty good looking athlete at times, but she's low output on the feet and she's not particularly technical either. She has some decent pop on her punches, but that's really about it. I do think she's the better wrestler and overall grappler here, but not by enough. She could get takedowns, but even if she does, I think Pennington can get back to her feet. I'm just not sold that Vieira can have enough grappling success to offset the Pennington striking success. Vieira also has a tendency to get stuck in the clinch against the cage, which is something I worry about for her in this matchup. Pennington needs to just stay off of her back really. I think she's the better striker here, not by a lot, but enough that it will be noticeable. She should be better on the outside as well as within boxing range. She doesn't have the power, but she is just cleaner and has a better understanding of what she needs to do. She should also be able to control Vieira in the clinch if she wants to. Vieira has gotten stuck in the clinch for stretches against a lot of opponents and I wouldn't doubt that Rocky could do the same. Vieira is another fighter who is willing to play the BJJ game from her back so if Rocky somehow ends up on top, she'll likely be able to ride out the rest of the round. I just kind of think Rocky finds a way to win this one, even though it likely ends up feeling pretty close.
Bets to consider: Pennington ML +102
Much like I said about Alhassan earlier, I just think Pennington should be a small favorite here. On top of what I already said, Pennington is a fighter who is largely tough to look good against. She's fought most of the top competition in the UFC and has looked at least competitive against almost all of them. Vieira isn't that far removed from having a competitive kick boxing match with Miesha Tate, which isn't the best look. I just think Rocky should be somewhere around -135ish, so I may take the shot on her in this one.
Punahele Soriano defeats Roman Kopylov Result: Kopylov by KO (8-1)
This is a very strange fight. Neither of these fighters are all that reliable which kind of creates of flimsy base upon which to pick or bet this fight. Puna just isn't really all that trustworthy of a fighter. He's not known for taking the best path to victories, his defense isn't that great, he's lower volume, and he has cardio problems. However, he has been pretty durable for the most part and he has big power himself. Kopylov is probably a better technical striker, but he's even lower volume. In a battle of minimal output, I think that puts more of an emphasis on Puna's significant power advantage. He also has the ability to grapple if he wanted to. Kopylov has looked very poor on the mat for much of his career and Puna does have a wrestling background. The real issue there is that if Puna wrestles, he's almost guaranteed to gas himself out. Even if this fight stays standing, I have to lean Soriano here just based on the optics of his power and he has virtually all of the finishing upside.
Bets to consider: Soriano finish only -190
I'm really not looking to play Kopylov and betting Puna at any even moderately sized favorite number isn't something I'm looking to do either. However, I think the finish only for Puna is the route to go if you want to play this fight. Kopylov really isn't much of a finisher and his low output style only contributes to that greater. Puna has the power to knock him out on the feet and Kopylov's grappling is raw enough that he can be finished on the mat by almost anyone who's truly UFC level. Puna can finish this fight anywhere and to get a majority of his win equity while minimizing risk is the way to go, at least in my mind.
Dan Ige defeats Damon Jackson Result: Ige by KO (9-1)
This is a very uncomfortable fight to pick and bet for me. This feels like one of those situations where a fighter (in this case Jackson) is coming in on a great hot streak and the other (Ige) is coming in on a really low cold streak, but no one is quite sure how that means this will play out. Even just a few months ago, everyone would've told you Ige is just better. However, Jackson does a lot of what we've seen Ige struggle with in the past. Jackson is primarily a wrestler/grappler archetype and he does it pretty well. He pursues takedowns with good pace and finishes them at a solid enough rate. His ability to control, advance position, and finish submissions are all pretty good as well. The real weakness for Jackson is that he's a bit unrefined on the feet. He's not a very explosive athlete and he's not a very fluid one either and it shows. He's almost rickety in the striking at times. I don't know if it's just a body language thing or if he's really getting hurt every time, but he doesn't take damage well either. Every time he gets hit, if feels like he's on the verge of going out. This skill set sort of works out for an interesting close fight with Ige's. Dan is aggressive on the feet and throws good volume with pretty decent power. He's going to be the better striker and better athlete by a considerable margin in this one. The weakness for Ige is that he's struggled with grapplers. He hasn't always stopped takedowns well and once he's down, he's really struggled. He either just gets stuck on his back, is content to play the BJJ game from his back, or gets his back taken because he exposes it trying to get back to his feet. His get up game just hasn't been advanced enough to really make anything happen when he's gotten taken down in the past. If that stays true here, Jackson will probably be ok. Ige is going to have a real chance to knock him out though and I just sort of have a feeling that is what happens. The difference in level of competition just has me feeling better about Ige in this spot.
Bets to consider: Ige ML -130, U2.5 rounds +140
I have a feeling that I'm going to be looking at this on Sunday and thinking that Ige should've been like -170 and I'm an idiot for not betting it, but I don't think I can pull the trigger. I do think he's a better fighter, but there's just something about the way the two have looked recently that is keeping me off. The under is much more interesting as obviously Ige has all of the KO potential, especially once this fight starts to extend, but Jackson has very real submission potential. If he's going to get 5-8+ minutes of top time, he's going to advance positions and will at least have a chance at a sub. At +140, it's not the worst look in the world at all.
Nassourdine Imavov defeats Sean Strickland Result: Strickland by decision (9-2)
Once Strickland jumped in for Kelvin Gastelum, this fight got really hard to predict. I like a lot of Imavov's skills, but I'm still not so sure he's ready for true top 10 level competition. I think he's extremely dangerous and can do a lot of good things offensively, but his defense may hold him back. His striking defense isn't fantastic, but it's not poor either. Similarly, his defensive grappling has room for improvement. He has the athletic advantages and definitely more power here though as well as just being a more dynamic fighter. He's also been preparing for this date for awhile now. Strickland just main evented the last card of 2022 last month and has been doing whatever Sean Strickland does over the holiday break until he jumped into this fight a few days ago. It's really hard to project where he'll be at. He took damage against Cannonier and had to make this fight take place at 205 lbs. Sean's style normally relies on him pushing a pace with his good cardio, but it's hard to say where that is right now. If he is mostly himself, then I think he would have a decent chance as Imavov's cardio hasn't always looked like a huge strength, but it's hard to imagine that will actually be the case. I just think the short notice of it all works too much in Imavov's favor.
Bets to consider: O3.5 rounds -116
What I just described has me not really looking to play a side in this one, but I think the over 3.5 is decent. Imavov isn't really a guy who looks to push a crazy pace in general. He fights with a fine pace, but nothing out of the ordinary. Strickland may not be able to go at his normal pace as he just won't have the cardio since he wasn't preparing for this fight. Both guys are historically pretty durable, so that should have them in a position to at least go over 3.5 total rounds in my estimation. I like this spot and is one of the few bets I'll be making.
This is coming out very late, so thanks for reading and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Johnson/Flick O1.5 rounds .75 units at -130 to win .58 units - .75 units
Rabecki/Fiore O1.5 rounds .5 units at +124 to win .62 units + .62 units
Raquel Pennington ML .5 units at +102 to win .51 units + .51 units
Strickland/Imavov O3.5 rounds .5 units at -116 to win .43 units + .43 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + .81 units
Previous Year to Date Total: 0 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + .81 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 9 - 2
Previous Year to Date Record: 0 - 0
Updated Year to Date Record: 9 - 2
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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