We're a few cards into the UFC calendar year now and we're likely getting a contender for the worst card of the year, at least on paper. Of course, we could end up getting some fun fights and maybe it will be a fine night, but it doesn't seem likely. Having the card start so late is nice for the Asian audience who has to watch every other card at a horrible hour, but I wish it was a better event. The one card they've gotten in years at a normal time and it's probably a contender for one of the worst events the UFC has had since they came back from the pandemic. At the same time, there's very little incentive for the average fan to want to stay awake late enough to actually watch this event. If you're someone like me, then you enjoy the projection and scouting process of new fighters who you don't know much about, but that only goes so far when the card is going to be ending at 3 or 4 in the morning. On the positive side, the Bellator card earlier on Saturday is pretty good and Fedor's last fight is a spectacle enough to have me intrigued. Anyways, let's get on with it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Tatsuro Taira defeats Jesus Aguilar Result: Taira by submission (1-0)
We'll start off the night with a bit of a strange fight as Tatsuro Taira makes his return. I've taken an intrigue in Taira since he debuted in the UFC not too long ago, but this really isn't the matchup I was hoping for. Aguilar is a respectable fighter, but I'm not really sure what his ceiling is in the UFC. 4 of his 8 career wins have come via guillotine and he's not going to submit Taira. We saw Aguilar struggle with grappling in his last fight and his opponent wasn't really even much of a grappler. Taira's grappling talent is obvious, so I suspect that he can get takedowns and once he does, he will likely be able to get to dominant positions. There's only so long anyone is going to last with Taira on top of them before getting submitted. Taira's striking isn't anything special, but his size advantage is going to be a factor. Taira will have a 3 inch height advantage and a 7 inch reach advantage. That's going to allow him to control distance and maybe even have more striking success than he normally would. Taira should win this one on top really however he wants, but likely by submission.
Bets to consider: Taira by submission in round 1 or 2 +115
The lines on this fight are smoked into oblivion and rightfully so for the most part. Taira should be a big favorite as anyone who is going to surrender takedowns to him is going to be in a pretty bad spot. Getting any Taira submission prop at plus money at this point probably isn't the worst look in the world. I say this and he'll probably end up with a ground and pound TKO, but that's just not really his style. He wants the submission and I think he'll end up finding it somewhat early.
Jun Yong Park defeats Denis Tiuliulin Result: Park by submission (2-0)
This is a bit of an odd fight. I feel like I said this about Park last time, but it's a tougher matchup for him. Park is a fighter that I generally like and believe is a pretty good fighter. Park is nicely well rounded and can use both striking and grappling as needed. The downside to Park is that he is limited athletically, doesn't finish fights, and has below average striking defense. Park's lack of explosion can hold him back at times because he doesn't have the extra snap on his shots to get knockouts consistently and he can't overpower higher level fighters to get takedowns. He also doesn't have a submission game that is anything out of the ordinary, so he doesn't finish very often. That forces him to win a lot of decisions, which he does well, but it is a higher risk game having to last 15 minutes all of the time. It's really the striking defense that has me worried in this matchup though. Tiuliulin isn't the greatest fighter in the world or anything, but he has power and he's aggressive. He should be able to land against Park and if he is, he has a very real change to knock him out. Tiuliulin isn't the best grappler ever, but he has shown a decent enough get up game while he has the energy. Park isn't some crazy control type of grappler, so I think a fresh Tiuliulin can probably get up. I think this fight probably looks like it's in Tiuliulin's favor early, but I think Park probably grinds him out in the second half of the fight and could potentially submit him late. The early Tiuliulin knockout is a very live outcome though. Tiuliulin's size advantage will only help him in the early going as well.
Bets to consider: Park by decision +170, Tiuliulin by KO +380, Tiuliulin finish only +134
I'm not really one for method of victory props, but this fight sort of feels like an exception. Park almost exclusively wins by decision, so getting his number all the way down to +170 is the way to go if you're on his side. If you want the Tiuliulin side, I think knockout is the way to go. Getting him finish only still at plus money is interesting as well. The only thing that would worry me is the case where Park gets the late finish after Tiuliulin gasses out. In general, I think the money line on Park is probably too wide. Having Park all the way out near -250 just doesn't make a whole lot of sense given that his finishing equity is pretty low and his window to dominate this fight is also pretty low. I don't really think we see Park get like 10 minutes of top time here, so there's just not really a way he covers this price with any regularity in my mind. At the same time, I do think he's a better all around mixed martial artist. I would probably steer clear of this fight, but I don't really hate the idea of taking a poke on some of the Tiuliulin props.
Ji Yeon Kim defeats Mandy Bohm Result: cancelled
I feel like I'll be saying this a lot, but this isn't the most exciting fight in the world. Despite what her UFC record may suggest, I actually think Kim is a serviceable fighter. She's not amazing by any means, but she's better than what it may seem on the surface. She lacks physicality and explosion, which sort of caps her ceiling a bit. However, she's a competent striker who puts out good volume. She doesn't grapple at all, but I don't think she'll need to here. Mandy Bohm just really hasn't shown anything to suggest that she's really UFC level at this point. She's not much of a grappler and I don't really think she would get takedowns here even if she tried for them. Her striking ends up looking worse than it probably is. I don't necessarily think she's the worst striker in the world, but she doesn't throw anything. She's so low volume that any good work she does is overshadowed. Her striking defense isn't great though, so she very consistently falls behind on the numbers and she doesn't have the power to sway the optics in her favor. Maybe she could have some success in the clinch here, but I don't think that will be enough. Kim is the better striker with more consistent output. This should be her fight somewhat comfortably.
Bets to consider: Kim by KO +500
I've seen more than a few people using an argument that I've been known to reference every now and then and that is: Kim shouldn't be -300 against anyone. While I think Kim's limited finishing ability brings some legitimacy to that argument, I actually think that price may be justified. Kim isn't an amazing fighter by any means, but I just don't even know what Bohm's path to victory is. She isn't a grappler, doesn't have the power to finish on the feet, doesn't have a technical striking advantage, and is almost guaranteed to fall behind on volume. While, on the surface, Kim being -300 may look a little strange, I don't think it's as far off as it may seem on first glance. With that said, I'm not looking to actually play Kim at -300, but I'm definitely not looking to play Bohm either. I think an underrated way to play this fight may be Kim by KO. Obviously, Kim doesn't have great power, but she does throw volume. I think she could just put it on Bohm and get her to fold late in the fight. It wouldn't be more than just taking a stab, but at +500, it's not the worst dart throw I've ever seen.
Hyun Sung Park defeats Seung Guk Choi Result: Park by submission (3-0)
This is the first of four road to the UFC fights and all of these are so hard to predict as you're getting two very inexperienced fighters who have only fought very limited competition. As far as this one goes, I think Park is a moderately intriguing fighter. He's the more athletic fighter and he's more aggressive. He puts out more volume, has the better power, and is probably just the better striker. I think he holds almost all of the finishing ability in this one both on the feet and on the ground. He's a decent enough grappler and has an aggressive submission game. That's not to say that I think Choi is a bad fighter or anything, but he seems a bit more limited. Choi is much more of a grappler and I think he may have a small advantage there. It wouldn't surprise me to see him have success, but I'm not sure that he can sustain it for the entire fight. His striking will be a disadvantage technically and he's on the low output side. He generally tries to limit the exchanges, which helps, but I don't think Park allows that to happen. I think Park is the better all around fighter and holds most of the finishing upside, so he is a worthy decent sized favorite in my mind.
Betting thoughts:
While Park being a solid sized favorite is probably correct, I have no interest in playing it. In fights with this level of inexperience and data on both sides, you almost default to dog or pass and while I wouldn't hate anyone taking a shot on Choi, I'm not looking to make that move. I think what keeps me off of him is that his upside just isn't there. He is going to be limited to just grinding out top control in what probably ends up looking like a narrow split decision win. All of the potential for domination and a finish is on the Park side, so I just don't see the need to play it. The under being around +190 or so is at least moderately intriguing, but I think steering clear of all of these road to UFC fights may end up being a sound strategy.
Rinya Nakamura defeats Toshiomi Kazama Result: Nakamura by KO (4-0)
This fight is also tough to predict for a lot of the same reasons. The strength of competition and experience level are still huge question marks. However, in this fight, it does feel like there's more of a skill gap. Kazama is a base grappler, but just a low level one at this stage. His general game plan is to get on top and hold people down. The issue for him there is that his wrestling really isn't that great and he can struggle to get fights down at times. If forced to stand, he'll be in trouble against any notable competition. His striking is very raw and it's low output on top of it. Nakamura isn't the next coming of Dominick Cruz or insert whatever bantamweight legend, but he is an intriguing enough prospect who has a chance to at least put on entertaining fights. Nakamura is a solid grappler and can hit takedowns at a solid rate, albeit against questionable competition. He should be able to stuff the takedowns and could probably even hit some of his own if he really wanted to. However, I think the easiest path to victory for him will be to keep it standing. Nakamura isn't a particularly refined striker, but he's at least going to go for it. He throws a lot of big, wild hooks, but he does so with power and volume. His striking defense needs to be cleaned up if he's really going to make a run in the UFC, but that isn't likely to cost him in this matchup. With some more refinement to his game, Nakamura may have a solid future ahead of him and he should kick it off with a win here.
Betting thoughts:
In fights this low level, I can't say that anyone taking a shot on Kazama at almost +350 is crazy. Given Nakamura's lack of striking defense, he could easily get knocked out. However, Kazama just isn't really the guy in this spot. His striking just isn't there and I don't think he gets takedowns. All of the violence props are kind of too far gone at this point as well. Laying any juice on a fight like this is a huge red flag for me. Low level fights are often where money can really be made and you can beat the market, but these road to the UFC fights may be really toeing the line on too low level to feel good about laying anything on.
Jeong Yeong Lee defeats Yi Zha Result: Lee by decision (5-0)
This is a matchup that I actually find a bit more intriguing than the previous two. Lee is the striker here and he's not a bad one at all. He's going to come out aggressive and throw with good output. He's the better striker in this one pretty clear, but he has to keep it standing. We don't really know much about his grappling though and that is what Zha wants to do. Zha's striking isn't much and if he can't get takedowns, he's probably going to lose. However, he has shown some legitimacy as a grappler. He's going to attempt takedowns at a very reliable rate without getting tired. If Lee's grappling isn't ready, Zha is going to get takedowns and he will be able to keep him down. Ultimately, I have to side with Lee's size and striking, but this is one fight I am legitimately interested in watching playout.
Bets to consider: Zha ML +200
This is a fight where I can actually get behind the dog shot a little more strongly. Unlike the previous two, Zha has legitimate upside in this matchup. Given that we know very little about Lee's grappling, there is not only the potential that Zha is better, but that he could actually be significantly better and dominate him. At +200, I think that could be worth a small dart throw and hope that Zha's takedowns eventually hit. With the rate he attempts them, unless Lee is a really good grappler, he's probably going to get at least a couple.
Jeka Saragih defeats Anshul Jubli Result: Jubli by KO (5-1)
This fight is also an interesting one and also has a bit of juice as well. I've seen some split opinion on this fight and I guess I get it, but also not really. Jubli has the size advantage and is maybe a slightly better technical striker. We've seen him put out good volume at times when he's fresh, but his gas tank is pretty unreliable. I've seen some people suggest that Jubli is also the better wrestler and that he could dominate there, but I disagree. I don't think his wrestling is significantly better and I'm not sure if it's better at all. Even if he is the better grappler, I don't think Jubli has the cardio to wrestle hard for a full 15 minutes. Saragih can probably grapple with him and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some takedowns of his own to be honest. Saragih is the more explosive striker with the better power. While Jubli may be more technical in a vacuum, his defense lacks and he gets hit way too often. Saragih does a much better job of avoiding damage. In what should be a competitive fight, I think the more explosive athlete who also has the better cardio is the side I want to be on.
Bets to consider: Saragih ML -102
I don't particularly think this line makes a ton of sense. Yes, it should be lined competitively, but having Saragih as a small underdog seems incorrect to me. I don't think having the fighter who is at a cardio disadvantage and a power disadvantage be a small favorite aligns. I think Saragih has the more reliable skill set and that is something that I value. I think their grappling is roughly equal, while Saragih is the better athlete with the better cardio.
Yusaku Kinoshita defeats Adam Fugitt Result: Fugitt by KO (5-2)
This is one of the more straightforward fights of the night for me. Fugitt jumped in as a short notice replacement in his debut and now he's up for his first UFC fight on a full camp. Fugitt isn't necessarily terrible, but I just don't quite think he's a UFC level fighter. He's very aggressive and he's somewhat well rounded, albeit just at a low level. What has me more down on him here is that he's going to be playing into what Kinoshita wants him to do. Fugitt's pressure heavy style is going to lead him directly into the counter heavy game that Kinoshita wants to play. You may know that I'm not always the biggest fan of backing counter striking heavy styles, but Kinoshita has the perfect matchup for it here. He's the better striker and he's faster, so he really should have no issue landing on Fugitt here. While Kinoshita isn't much of a wrestler, I think he has at least an ok submission game. If Fugitt is getting beat up or gasses out and shoots a lazy takedown, Kinoshita could easily snatch up a choke. I think it's more likely that we see Kinoshita dominate in the striking and probably knocks Fugitt out in either the late first round or sometime in the second.
Bets to conisder: Kinoshita ITD -110
Betting Kinoshita in his debut at over -300 isn't exactly what I'm looking to do and would often be on the other side, but not this time. I think Kinoshita is rightfully a large favorite, but at this price, there's really not much value to be extracted. I think Kinoshita inside the distance is the way to go if you want to play him. Getting ITD at pick em isn't always a price I would look to play either, but Kinoshita can finish this fight both on the ground and standing. The concern there is that Fugitt knows the counters are coming and he fights a very patient style. That isn't like him and he would still likely lose, but it is a possibility. I think this line is ok, but I'm not racing to play it.
Doo Ho Choi defeats Kyle Nelson Result: Majority draw (5-2-1)
This should be a fairly interesting fight for as long as it lasts. Choi is making his return after quite a long layoff, so that raises a lot of questions. If we are to assume he is mostly the same fighter, then I like this spot for him. Choi is a guy that looks his best when fights stay on the outside and he can strike freely. His biggest struggles on the feet have come in fights when his opponents can take those shots and keep coming at him. Choi's problems being finished haven't come because he gets put out cold, but rather because he just sort of folds in those spots. He's the better striker and should be faster here, so I think he's in a good spot. Nelson, unfortunately for him, just doesn't really have the skill set to do what works best against Choi. He isn't going to be able to grapple him. Nelson also needs to have a great first round, which is when Choi is at his best. Nelson isn't the type of fighter who can take a beating in round one and then come back late like some of the guys that we've seen Choi lose to in the past. Nelson just doesn't have the cardio to push in the second and third rounds. He also isn't the most durable guy in the world, so it's not a given that he even survives the early onslaught from Choi. Obviously, if Choi is just a shell of himself after all that time away, then this could look way different, but assuming he's ok, this should be an alright spot for him.
Bets to consider: Choi ML -194
Betting juice on Choi after like 3 years away from fighting may be cause for some anxiety, but I think it may actually be the move here. The under 2.5 rounds at -182 could be as well. Nelson's only real chance at winning is to clip Choi early. If he doesn't, Choi probably puts it on him until a gassed out Nelson ends up going down. Choi has the upside to look like a huge favorite if he's still the same guy.
Marcin Tybura defeats Blagoy Ivanov Result: Tybura by decision (6-2-1)
This is sort of a strange fight, but I'm not going to jump of the Tybura train now. Tybura is kind of a weird heavyweight as his style is based in low power, volume striking. He can grapple as well, but his wrestling is just sort of mediocre. I think Blagoy can probably stop his takedowns, at least while he has the energy. Ivanov isn't a poor striker, but he just doesn't throw with any consistent output and he takes damage as well. He hasn't historically had a huge durability problem, but he is starting to get up there in age now. His power offensively is still solid and Tybura hasn't always been the most durable guy, although he's on a much better stretch of late on that front. What has me feeling better about Tybura is his cardio. He is much more capable of pushing a pace and maintaining it for a full 15 minutes. Blagoy is more prone to slowing down after the first round. I think this fight probably looks competitive early, but once Ivanov slows down, Tybura should be able to pull away.
Bets to consider: Tybura ML -142
I think this line may a bit far now in terms of actually being able to play it, but I still don't hate it. Other than a round 1 knockout, I really don't think Blagoy has much of a path. His disadvantages in volume and cardio are going to make it really hard for him to be able to win a decision or find a late finish. For someone's primary win condition to be round 1 finish, I think getting the other side at -140 on the money line could end up looking like a solid play in hindsight.
Da Un Jung defeats Devin Clark Result: Clark by decision (6-3-1)
This is a strange co-main event, but here we are. To keep it short, this seems like a bad spot for Clark. Clark is a low volume striker and not a particularly great one at that. He is a pretty physical guy, but it just doesn't translate into his striking like you would hope. He does do a decent job of limiting damage on the feet though. He normally wants to grapple, but his wrestling is only ok. He relies more on his physicality than technique to get takedowns and that has held him back against better competition. Clark also gets finished somewhat consistently despite being a pretty tough guy. Jung should be able to do what he wants. Jung is massive for the division, so Clark won't be able to physically overwhelm him and he's a pretty solid wrestler in his own right. On the feet, Jung should be fine and will have opportunities to land some big shots. This should be a nice bounce back fight for him.
Bets to consider: Jung ITD -125
This isn't a great line, but it may end up being worth it. I don't like betting props at minus money in general, but everything seems set up for Jung to finish this fight. Clark can be finished and he doesn't do a good job of turning the tide. Clark's gas tank also isn't particularly deep, so once Jung gets things going his way, he should be able to maintain that. This is probably the best way to cut the price on Jung down without being too unnecessarily risky.
Derrick Lewis defeats Serghei Spivac Result: Spivac by submission (6-4-1)
What is left to really say about Derrick Lewis at this point. Like almost all of his fights, he's either going to get an early knockout or he's going to lose. Spivac is going to look to take him down and I have no doubt he can do so. Lewis can potentially get up early while he has energy, but after he slows, Spivac should control the fight and finish him. Lewis can be finished once he gets tired, so Spivac can probably just ground and pound his way to a win. The problem is that Spivac doesn't take damage well. When he gets hit flush, he doesn't react well and can usually be finished soon after. We all know Lewis has the power to do that, it's just a matter of if he can land. I'm not sure why, but as we get closer to the fight, I kind of get the feeling that he's going to pull it off. Maybe I'm biased because he's my dad's favorite fighter, but I'm rolling with The Black Beast one more time.
Bets to consider: Lewis KO round 1 or 2 +420
There's really no way to play Spivac at a juiced price and feel good about it. Once you get into round 3, you're probably in the clear, but his durability really keeps me away from him. Lewis round one or two knockout at plus +420 is the best route on him in my opinion. A knockout in the first 10 minutes has to be almost 90% of his win condition, so I think that is worth the dart throw.
That's it from me on this card. Enjoy the late night and enjoy the Bellator event as well. I hope Fedor goes out on top. Thanks for reading. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Jeka Saragih ML .75 units at -120 to win .63 units - .75 units
Yusaku Kinoshita ITD .5 units at -110 to win .45 units - .5 units
Choi/Nelson U2.5 rounds 1.25 units at -182 to win .69 units -1.25 units
Lewis KO round 1 or 2 .25 units at +420 to win 1.05 units - .25 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 2.75 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 1.58 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 4.33 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 6 - 4 - 1
Previous Year to Date Record: 21 - 5
Updated Year to Date Record: 27 - 9 - 1
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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