We're back in the UFC rocking chair of having fantastic events bookended by less than great events. Much like the Lewis vs Spivac card that came before 284, this week's event isn't looking very good on paper. From top to bottom, it honestly may even be a tad worse, but I think the main event is actually a bit more intriguing. Erin Blanchfield is getting her big opportunity in her first main event and is getting a short notice Jessica Andrade stepping in for Taila Santos. I know a lot of MMA fans really dislike women's main events, but I think they're actually necessary in order to progress women's MMA. WMMA fights have the label of being lower level and not as entertaining, at least from the casual audience. While there are multiple factors that contribute to some fans thinking that way, I think a huge one is lack of exposure to the fighters. Women's MMA fights are so infrequently given prime spots that, unless someone has challenged for a title, a casual fan may not know who a fighter even is. I think that has interest in WMMA title fights down because some fans who only watch the PPVs or fight night main cards may have never seen some of these fighters compete before. To increase the interest in some of these title fights, fans need to actually know who some of the challengers are before they're actually fighting for the belt. That means these up and coming fighters and future contenders need to be put into more main events, co-main events, and PPV main card fights. It may get some tough feedback in the early going because fans aren't exposed to these fighters, but I think, in the long run, it will have fans more invested in the stories of fighters they previously weren't being exposed to. Also, let's be honest, some of the Fight Night main events we get aren't very good. We get a handful of random heavyweight main events every year that ultimately do nothing for the promotion in the short or long term. It would be much more beneficial for the promotion to increase exposure for fighters like Erin Blanchfield than it is to get 3 Derrick Lewis main events, 3 Thiago Santos main events, and the other strange fights the UFC puts in the main event slot just because it's a fighter who's been around for a long time. The fan base responded well to getting the Mateusz Gamrot vs Arman Tsarukyan main event because it was an awesome fight. I'm not saying Andrade vs Blanchfield is that, but I think fans would much rather see a good fight be 5 rounds than a fight be 5 rounds just because there's someone in it that they've seen before. That got a bit long winded, but I'm just glad to see fights like this being put together and being put in big spots for people to actually see. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well. Let's actually start talking about these fights and let's hope we can finally bounce back this week.
Clayton Carpenter defeats Juancamilo Ronderos Result: Carpenter by submission (1-0)
Finding things to say about some of these fights won't be easy and this is the first of those. This is a fight with two pretty inexperienced, low level fighters. With the limited information we have on these guys, I kind of think Carpenter may just be better. He seems to me to be a bit faster and a bit more powerful on the feet. He should strike with good volume, but his defense lacks a bit. I think he'll be the better grappler in this fight as well. Ronderos isn't the worst fighter in the world or anything, but I think we may see him just be a step behind in this one. Ronderos also doesn't have particularly sound striking defense. He strikes with decent volume as well, but I think the speed disadvantage may just put him in a spot where he can't catch up on numbers. Carpenter had the potential to mix in takedowns too, which should give him a majority of potential winning outcomes here. Carpenter should have him covered.
Bets to consider: Fight to start round 3 +114
I get that low level fights finish at a way higher rate than extremely high level fights, but this number is a bit strange to me. I don't really see either of these guys as a prolific finisher and neither guy has shown any tendency to be finished either. Neither has a cardio issue where they would just death gas and not be able to continue. To get a flyweight fight to start round 3 at plus money in general is something that would grab my attention and I don't see anything in this matchup that really suggests a finish is significant possibility.
AJ Fletcher defeats Themba Gorimbo Result: Fletcher by submission (2-0)
This is a fight that I really don't have a good feel for. AJ Fletcher really should win, but I just don't really trust him. He is the better fighter and, skill for skill, he deserves to be the large favorite he is. He's both the better striker and the better overall grappler. There are two glaring issues in his game that give me pause though. The first is that his striking defense is very poor and he takes way too many shots for my liking. The even scarier issue in this fight is that his cardio is pretty reliable to not hold up in the back half of a fight. If he loses this fight, it's likely because he gasses out and gets finished late. The reason I still pick him is because I just don't think Gorimbo is a UFC level fighter. He has some tools, but nothing that really gives him a true path to victory. He has good length and his reach advantage in this matchup is significant, but he's just not the caliber of striker who can use that advantage. He's really not much of a striker at all. He prefers to grapple, but I don't really rate him much there either. He's not much of a wrestler, so I don't think he ends up on top of Fletcher here and he's not the caliber of fighter who's going to submit someone from guard at this level. Fletcher really should be fine, but his cardio scares me.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -166
I've been going back and forth on what I actually think about this number. This is one where it could look really great or really bad in hindsight with little room for indifference. Part of me feels like you almost have to bet the under in Fletcher fights because he's just not a guy who can fight to decision very often, even against low level competition. The skill gap really is there both striking and grappling that he should finish this fight at a solid rate. Given his cardio, it isn't out of the realm that he just gasses and gets finished himself. The one thing that is holding me back is that I think he could probably just lay on top of Gorimbo for 15 minutes if he wanted to. Even a gassed out Fletcher may be able to hit a takedown and just hang on for dear life in the final minutes. I don't know if I'll play it, but it's definitely in consideration.
Ovince St. Preux defeats Philipe Lins Result: Lins by KO (2-1)
This is a bizarre fight and given OSP's name value, I'm surprised it wasn't higher on the card. This fight won't be good, but it should be close. Neither of these fighters have looked particularly good recently, but I think the style dynamics do play a bit into what OSP wants to do more. First, I think the grappling is largely a wash here. OSP isn't a fantastic offensive wrestler and Lins has done a good job at keeping fights upright when he wants to. Lins is a bit more aggressive in terms of shooting takedowns, but he still doesn't attempt a ton. Even when he does, he doesn't really have a ton of success on them and we've seen OSP stuff takedowns from significantly better grapplers in the past, albeit when he was a much younger fighter himself. On the feet, Lins is really his best in a brawl. If the fight stays on the outside, his striking really doesn't hold up and that is exactly what OSP is going to do. If Lins can somehow get on the inside and stay there, he probably gets the knockout, but I don't find that particularly likely. Lins just doesn't have the footwork to work his way in that way and he can't out strike OSP on a technical level. OSP isn't exactly a world class striker either, but he is the better range based kick boxer in my opinion. He is going to throw his body kicks from the outside and he's going to counter well. When Lins tries to close the distance, I think OSP can punish him on the counters and could find his own knockout. Neither fighter has great cardio or pushes a pace and they're both getting older now, so it's hard to rely on either, but I do think the way this fight sets up does sort of prefer OSP.
Bets to consider: St. Preux ML +180
Believe me, I don't necessarily feel awesome about laying down money on OSP at this stage of his career. He hasn't looked very good at all recently, but I just don' know how anyone has the confidence to lay money down on Lins at favorite money either. He's getting up there in age too and he just doesn't really have the style to pull away in my opinion. Either fighter could finish the other and if it goes to decision, I would much rather be holding the +180 ticket in a low output kick boxing match. This is one where the number is dictating that I play it more than any significant confidence in OSP at this stage of his career.
Jamall Emmers defeats Khusein Askhabov Result: Emmers by decision (3-1)
This is a bit of a strange fight. This may be a hole in my ability and strategy when it comes to picking fights, but I'm going to go with the known commodity against complete unknowns most of the time. In this case, we know who Jamall Emmers is and that is largely a pretty good fighter. He's not going to work his way into the rankings any time soon, but he is solidly on the UFC roster and is a good measuring stick. Emmers is pretty well rounded as well. He's a decent enough striker who offers good volume with respectable enough power. He's shown himself to be a pretty solid wrestler as well. His submission game isn't anything special, but he's not completely lost either. He's made some questionable decisions, especially in his last fight which ended up getting him injured and he's been out since. On the other side, we have Askhabov and it's really hard to know what we're getting. His video looks relatively fine, but his level of competition is so low that it makes it difficult to really grade him. He's a primary grappler, which is somewhat concerning because he's going to be at a size and physicality disadvantage in this fight. Askhabov also hasn't fought in almost 3 full years, so it's hard to say how much rust there may be. I just have to go with the more proven fighter in a spot like this.
Bets to consider: Emmers ML +136
For Emmers to be almost at +140 just doesn't really compute to me. I concede that Ashabov could certainly win this fight, but seeing him at -150 in this spot really just isn't making sense. He's coming into the toughest fight of his career after not being active in 3 years and is a moderately sized favorite? If you wanted to make him a small favorite then that's one thing, but this is too far. I think Emmers should probably be a small favorite here.
Mayra Bueno Silva defeats Lina Lansberg Result: Bueno Silva by submission (4-1)
This is an odd fight as well, but in a much different way. Lansberg just kind of looks like she's at the end of the road. She's on the wrong side of 40 now and it's just been rough going of late. She has never really had great output when she's striking and it's only tailed off more recently. She doesn't take a ton of damage as she can usually limit the amount of exchanges by clinching against the side of the cage, but she still gets hit more than you would like. She doesn't do much offensive wrestling, so she isn't going to get top time. She doesn't have much of a submission game to note either and isn't going to find knockouts while standing. Silva isn't some sort of world beater, but she should win this fight pretty cleanly. She's going to be the better striker and she has more power. Silva doesn't strike with great volume either, but it should be more than Lansberg's. Silva doesn't wrestle either, but if the fight does hit the mat, she is the better submission grappler. I just think everything in this fight works in Silva's favor.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -176
I think the only reason we're getting the over at a number like this is because of how Lansberg has looked recently combined with her age. Other than that, there's really no reason to expect a finish here. Lansberg has little to know finishing equity in this matchup and doesn't have durability issues. She doesn't get finished on her feet and while Silva does have some power, it's not likely she has a long history of knocking people out. Lansberg has been finished on the ground and Silva has some submissions, but Silva doesn't shoot takedown attempts, so I'm not sure that even comes into play. Juiced overs are always anxiety inducing, but this may be the one.
Nazim Sadykhov defeats Evan Elder Result: Sadykhov by KO (5-1)
This is probably the fight that I have the least to say about because I just don't really have any concrete conclusions. Both guys are sort of unknowns as they have limited experience and what we have seen has come against very limited competition. I think both fighters do have some degree of upside in that they don't see obviously exploitable in one area, but it's hard to say how well their skills translate to high level competition. The concern on both sides is that I don't really trust either of their defense and it's hard to say how either will react to UFC level power. One differentiating factor is that I think Nazim just has a wider array of skills and techniques at his disposal, but the margins are pretty think in my mind. I estimate that he may have more of a chance to finish as well, but I really don't feel good about any of it.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -106
I really think this fight is better of served being a data point than a spot to attack. There's just way too many unknowns for me to feel comfortable jumping on something here. Given that I said I think this may be a pretty competitive fight, it would make sense to take Elder at +160 and while I definitely don't hate the shot, I just don't really feel compelled to take it. I think a shot on the under could be warranted as well. Neither fighter defends strikes all that well, so there will be opportunities to land. I think both guys have some power, so a knockout on either side is in the cards. I feel pretty good about passing on this one though.
Alexander Hernandez defeats Jim Miller Result: Hernandez by decision (6-1)
This one hurts. I think I've been pretty forthcoming in that I'm a fan of Jim Miller and even clearer in that I really don't like Alexander Hernandez. However, this matchup really plays into what Hernandez wants to do. The one way Hernandez consistently loses is against someone who can weather the storm early and then push the pace in the second half of the fight. Jim Miller isn't going to do that. Miller's cardio also isn't great, so he isn't able to push that pace late. Hernandez has all of the physical and athletic advantages as well as being the more technical fighter. Miller doesn't take shots well anymore either. Hernandez can get the knockout early and I think he's physical enough that he could probably grapple Miller if he really wanted to. I think he's just too much for Miller at this stage of their careers.
Bets to consider: Hernandez ML -230
Honestly, I think there's some value to be had on the Hernandez money line here. Normally I would say to always take Hernandez inside the distance because his chances of winning a decision aren't great, but in this matchup I think they are legitimate. Miller doesn't have the cardio and he's much older. Hernandez is faster and more powerful early. He's the more technical fighter everywhere. He's stronger in the clinch. I think he could pretty easily be -300 or better in this fight.
William Knight defeats Marcin Prachnio Result: Prachnio by decision (6-2)
This fight is a mess. Both fighters are very flawed, but I think I like Knight just a touch more. Prachnio is really not a bad striker when he's fresh. He's moderately technical, has good power, and throws good volume. The problem there is that he can only do that for, at most, a single, but likely closer to 3-4 minutes. After that, he just fades until he completely gasses out. Now, no one is going to mistake William Knight's cardio for that of Alex Volkanovski, but I think it is at least a tad better than Prachnio's. Knight certainly slows down, but he at least pushes once he slows down instead of just collapsing. Knight isn't a better striker, but he has huge power. Prachnio doesn't have a great history when it comes to durability on top of that. Knight also has the upside to potentially wrestle in this fight, at least while he has the energy. He's not a great wrestler, but he is pretty reliable to attempt takedowns. I think Knight is just going to do a bit more in this one.
Bets to consider: U2.5 -160
On the money line side, all I feel is a slight lean towards Knight and the line currently reflects that. I think the under 2.5 even at -160 may be the way to go. Prachnio will be the better fighter in the first few minutes and could easily get the knockout there. If he doesn't, Knight probably takes over the fight. It's hard to imagine Knight taking over and not finishing, but he could probably just take him down and lay on him if he really wanted to. I don't trust Prachnio's durability or his cardio late, so I think this fight probably finishes even more often than what this line suggests.
Jamal Pogues defeats Josh Parisian Result: Pogues by decision (7-2)
If the previous fight was a mess, then this one is a natural disaster. This will be Pogues first official UFC fight after his win on Dana White's Contender Series and it wasn't all that of an impressive win at that. He's known as a guy who comes from a wrestling and grappling background, but he didn't use it in that fight. He chose to stand and strike and it was pretty basic stuff. He largely fought behind a jab and little else. He didn't have much volume and luckily his opponent didn't either, so he was able to win a decision. In this matchup, he should go back to the wrestling though. Parisian isn't the worst fighter you'll ever see, but he doesn't have a lot of special in his game. He throws strikes with some decent volume, especially for heavyweight, but that's really about it. His striking defense isn't very good, but I don't think Pogues really has the power or volume to do much with that. Parisian has been pretty consistently out grappled by anyone who tries, even fighters who aren't known as grapplers. If Pogues shoots takedowns, he should win this fight pretty easily. If he chooses to stand and strike, things will get a bit hairy. I think Pogues takes him down and rides him out, but he's hard to trust given his last time out.
Bets to consider: Parisian ML +215
You could really only bet Parisian here. Pogues has all of the dominant upside, but I can't even consider betting him at -260. If I trusted that he would shoot, then it becomes almost into consideration, but you can't even trust that now since he should've done that in his last fight and chose not to. Pogues also isn't really a true heavyweight and will be at a size disadvantage, so I wonder if that gives him any problems. If he chooses to stand, he'll be behind Parisian volume wise as well. I get passing on Parisian though as his grappling has been so bad, it's hard to imagine him not giving up double digit minutes of top control here. Should be a pass spot as even the over/under isn't in a great place right now.
Zac Pauga defeats Jordan Wright Result: Pauga by decision (8-2)
In one of the strangest fights on paper that I can remember seeing in a minute, we have this co-main event. We have Jordan Wright moving up to 205 from middleweight and Pauga coming down from heavyweight, which is unique. By this point, we know what Wright is. He's a guy who's going to come out guns blazing and try to force a finish. He's got some good power and he can even wrestle a bit when he wants to, but he's pretty content to run into the pocket and see what happens. He has the power to get knockouts there, but his defense is nonexistent and his chin isn't good enough to just eat clean bombs over and over again. I'm really not the biggest Pauga guy, but he should be ok here. I think he's a better striker, especially defensively. As long as he doesn't get nuked in the first 4 minutes, he should be fine. Wright is going to come after him though. Pauga is coming off of a knockout loss to Mo Usman, which isn't a great look, but Pauga is going to be able to land on Wright and I don't think he holds up to the power.
Bets to consider: U1.5 -192
It's hard to bet Wright at almost any number. His win condition is essentially first round knockout. He just doesn't have the gas to win a decision even if he 10-8's Pauga in round 1. His style and durability lead him to bad knockout losses somewhat consistently, which only add up over time. Wright is going to force the brawl and someone should go down pretty quickly. I'm not one for betting juiced unders or under 1.5 in general, but it's hard to imagine this one going any other way.
Jessica Andrade defeats Erin Blanchfield Result: Blanchfield by submission (8-3)
There's a lot of different opinions floating around out there on this fight, but I come down on the Andrade side. She obviously didn't have a normal camp, but she just fought Lauren Murphy last month who is a primary grappler like Blanchfield, so she's been training to stop takedowns. We know Blanchfield wants to wrestle. She's not a great striker, although she does seem to be improving there. I also wonder what she may look like cardio wise in the 4th and 5th rounds if the first 15 minutes are at least somewhat competitive. The stats don't suggest anything, but I'm not so sure that Blanchfield is a great defensive striker either. I don't have any of those questions about Andrade. I know she pushes a pace, I know she can hold up cardio wise, and I know she is going to bring the forward pressure. Pressuring Blanchfield will make it tougher for her to hit the takedowns. We saw Lauren Murphy out muscle Miesha Tate and now we just saw Andrade have no issues with Murphy's takedowns, so I think that may be at least a sign that she could be ok here. Everyone brings up the Shevchenko fight and how Valentina bullied Andrade on the floor, but I think it's being too overblown. We haven't seen anyone really do that to Andrade before that and haven't seen anyone do that to her since. Assuming Blanchfield could come in and do the same seems like a stretch, especially since she did it to Molly McCann. If the fight stays standing, Andrade has every advantage. I just trust her more in this spot.
Bets to consider: Andrade ML -122
I think Andrade is the side here. We know she's better on the feet and we know Blanchfield is better on the ground. Great. I think everything beyond that leans to Andrade's side. She's the more proven fighter against high level competition and this is the hardest fight Blanchfield has been in by a significant margin. We've never seen Blanchfield fight a hard 25 minutes. We've seen Andrade do it several times. We don't know how Blanchfield's cardio will hold up. We don't know how her chin holds up to this kind of power. Andrade has to have more finishing upside. Doing what Blanchfield did to McCann is one thing. Doing it to Andrade when she's walking you down is another. I don't think seeing one of the greatest female MMA fighters to ever live dominate Andrade on the ground is enough for me to jump to the conclusion that Erin Blanchfield can do the same.
That's it for me. Leave any and all of your thoughts and predictions below. Thanks for reading and have a good one. Enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Carpenter/Ronderos Fight to start round 3 1 unit at +112 to win 1.12 units -1 unit
Ovince St. Preux ML .5 units at +184 to win .92 units - .5 units
Jamall Emmers ML .75 units at +136 to win 1.02 units + 1.02 units
Lansberg/Silva O2.5 rounds 1 unit at -176 to win .57 units -1 unit
Jessica Andrade ML 1 unit at -122 to win .82 units -1 unit
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 2.48 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 4.98 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 7.46 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 3
Previous Year to Date Record: 32 - 16 - 2
Updated Year to Date Record: 40 - 19 - 2
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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