The co-main event of UFC 286 was billed as a fight that would feature a ton of violence and that is largely what we got. Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev brought the heat and somehow made it to a decision despite each guy landing some really nice shots. It would have taken something really strange for this fight not to be a good one and I'm glad it was because the rest of the main card before it was a little...meh. Gaethje managed to just edge out Fiziev on the judges scorecards in what ended up being a really close fight. It was good to see Gaethje look good in a high level fight and I think Fiziev showed a lot too. I'm not sure exactly what direction I'll go with this to be honest and I don't have any solidified thoughts going into this, so let's see.
This is such a big win for Justin Gaethje and it has to feel really good. A lot of people, myself included, were starting to talk as if this was sort of the last stand for Gaethje as a true title contender, top 5 type of guy. I think a lot of people were of the opinion that Gaethje was declining and this fight would be the clear evidence of that. Gaethje proved that he may have a little more left in the tank than we gave him credit for. Going in, I thought the speed of Fiziev was going to be a big problem for issue and the speed gap was clear, but it didn't lead to an actual advantage in terms of success for Fiziev. Fiziev was also the more technical fighter, but again, it didn't really lead to anything significant for Fiziev. I think Gaethje's big fight experience really helped him here because he was able to remain calm (as calm as a Gaethje fight can be at least) and not get completely reckless if he fell behind. Despite those disadvantages, he was able to stay neck and neck with Fiziev through most exchanges. Strangely, Gaethje's defense is what may have won him the fight. He didn't take a ton of clean shots this time around. Part of the reason I picked against him was his tendency to take damage and I thought his durability was starting to take a step back, but he was much more clean this time around. He didn't take hardly any visible damage and wasn't hurt in this fight. It did seem like Gaethje had a slight power advantage, which contributed to Fiziev looking a lot more beat up. I have to imagine the optics of that contributed to a close decision going Gaethje's way. The other thing that I found interesting is that, despite actually appearing more tired, Gaethje was the more active fighter down the stretch. Cardio is one thing, but pacing is a separate issue and I think Gaethje's pace was better, which also gave him a slight edge. This fight was extremely close, so it was those very fine details that could've swayed the judges one way or another. I'm glad that Gaethje still has more fight left in him because this sport will miss him dearly when he's gone.
I don't think many people were really game planning for what the division would look like going forward if Gaethje were to pull off the win here, which is the exact spot we find ourselves in. He just beat a rising contender, so normally he would be rewarded with a more established opponent that could really put him on the short list for a title shot. The problem really is that Gaethje has fought everyone in that tier except for Beneil Dariush. Beneil is booked against Charles Oliveira in May and I don't really think having him fight Gaethje makes a whole lot of sense regardless of outcome. If Beneil wins, he'll almost certainly be fighting Islam Makhachev in October. If he loses, then I'm still not sure exactly what purpose a Gaethje fight serves. I think one of the rematches just makes a lot more sense. Whether it ends up being Michael Chandler, Charles Oliveira, or Dustin Poirier doesn't matter too much to me. Those fights are just guaranteed to be amazing, so there's no real downside to making them a second time. The Chandler timeline is a little weird since he's going to be fighting Conor McGregor in September, but Gaethje is a guy who takes a lot of time between fights anyways. He's not nearly as beat up as he usually is, so maybe he's ready for a faster turnaround, in which case make the fight against Dustin either in July or make it the co-main on Conor vs Chandler. Dustin needs a fight, so he will be ready whenever. Any fight is guaranteed fireworks with Gaethje in one corner, so just give him someone and let the fans go crazy.
All in all, I thought Fiziev represented himself pretty well. He fought a former challenger and interim champion extremely closely and arguably won a very tough decision. The biggest thing that stood out to me for Fiziev is his speed. I feel comfortable saying that he probably has the fastest strikes in the division and he operates at a level, technically speaking, above a lot of the other top strikers at lightweight. I think the next evolution of Fiziev's game is to land more head strikes. Fiziev does a lot of his best work to the body, which is great, but I think he needs to land more shots up top in these really high level fights. The narrow margin was partially due to the optics of Fiziev being bloodied and battered standing next to Gaethje who didn't have any marks on his face. Fiziev is so fast that he should be confident to take chances there as well. There's no one who can match him speed wise and really punish him on counters if he tries to open it up a little. The other thing that seemed to cost Fiziev is that he slowed down a bit late. Fiziev seemed to have fixed the cardio situation when he fought really well for extended minutes against Rafael Dos Anjos, but it popped back up here. He didn't gas out badly or anything like that, but just that little drop off was the difference in an otherwise close fight. He was able to keep the fight at a more methodical pace against RDA, but Gaethje forced more action and was able to really put it on Fiziev in the final round. I've seen some people asking the question about whether or not Fiziev was fraud checked here and it genuinely confused me. Fiziev was significantly closer to winning this fight than he was to being fraud checked. If anything, Fiziev proved that he belongs with fighters like Gaethje and the others in the top 5 around him. Assuming he keeps progressing and evolving, Fiziev seems like a guy who is going to challenge for a championship before his career is all said and done. He proved himself to be high level in a lot of areas and only a few improvements and minor adjustments away in my estimation.
The good thing for Fiziev is that he has no shortage of potential opponents going forward. His two ranked wins prior were Brad Riddell, who is taking an extended hiatus from the sport, and RDA, who has moved on to welterweight, so his options are wide open. The loser of Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush is the best option if he can get it, but I don't really expect him to be fighting up after a loss. The Mateusz Gamrot fight is sort of sitting right there for him. They're right next to each other in the rankings and it's a fight that really should be a Fight Night main event. Really any chance I can get to see Gamrot fight 5 rounds, I'm taking. If the UFC just wants to get fun and crazy, book Fiziev vs Jalin Turner. I mean, who's saying no to that. Drew Dober is there as well, but that's a pretty big jump rankings wise, so probably less likely. Give me Fiziev vs Turner every time though. That's my choice.
What did you guys think of the fight? How did you score it? Where do you think both men should go from here? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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