There was a lot of discussion about how this main event could and would play out, with most people coming down on the side that Petr Yan would probably win. I don't think even Merab Dvalishvili's biggest fans imagined what we saw was a real possibility. I went against my fandom, like I have with Jamahal Hill far too often, and used what I thought was my head instead of my heart. What we learned is that Merab was able to do to Yan what he's done to everyone else he's fought. It was an incredible display of endurance for 25 minutes. Merab broke the record for takedown attempts in a fight as the mentioned during the broadcast, but it was actually more impressive than it sounds. His ability to really shut down almost all of Yan's offense was both unexpected and impressive. This really should put Merab on a short list of candidates for a title shot, but we'll get into that in a minute. It was a great way to cap off what was really a great event from start to finish. I wish the UFC was doing these smaller shows in front of audiences like this more often, but I think it's safe to say that isn't going to happen any time soon. Anyways, let's stay focused on this fight.
My takeaways from Merab's performance are sort of aligned with what I said about Alexa Grasso last week. I'm not surprised in what he did because that's what Merab always does. I'm just surprised that it worked as well as it did against this opponent. I didn't think Merab would have nearly as much success pressuring Yan as he did. Yan is pretty reliable to be the guy moving forward regardless of what was happening, but Merab had him backing up a vast majority of the fight. Merab didn't have a ton of success with his takedowns, which I accurately predicted, but Yan wasn't able to actually do anything with it. I think the pace of Merab actually forced Yan too far out of his comfort zone early and he was never able to settle in. Yan always starts slow, but Merab's pace forced Yan to engage early more than he likes to. When the fight was at striking range, Yan was always going backwards and Merab was landing. The low kicks were a great weapon for him early and he damaged Yan's leg, which forced him to keep switching to the southpaw stance. From there, Merab really just did his thing. He brought the pressure and pace that Yan really had no answer for. Yan was immediately on the defensive and was never able to really get his offense going. Anything he landed was really just an effort to get Merab off of him for a moment than anything that he was able to really sit down on and try to damage him. I think we all knew Merab was a real problem for most guys at 135, but he proved he can hang with just about anyone now.
The real question for Merab is what does he want to do next and what does the UFC choose to do with him. Both Merab and his teammate, friend, and UFC champion Aljamain Sterling have been very clear about how they're not going to fight each other. We've sort of gotten to a point where that is much more real than it's ever been. The amount of guys left for Merab to potentially fight is growing thinner. He keeps winning, yet won't take a title shot because Aljo is his friend, which is commendable. It does put the UFC in a bit of a tricky spot though because they have Merab potentially beating all of the contenders but they can't give him the title shot. Now, it does seem like Aljo is pretty committed to moving up to featherweight in the semi near future. He has the fight with Henry Cejudo in May and then, should he retain, would have the matchup with Sean O'Malley waiting for him. Of course, Cejudo could win the belt in a few months and all of this could be meaningless conversation, but they have to consider it. With that said, I think Merab would probably need one more win anyways. As impressive as that win was, it was always unlikely that he was just going to leapfrog O'Malley for a title shot. A lot of what happens to Merab next hinges on what happens between Cory Sandhagen and Chito Vera in a couple of weeks. A Sandhagen win probably puts O'Malley into the title fight and sets up Merab vs Cory. A Chito win makes things really interesting as that puts O'Malley and Chito in the top 2 spots and Chito has the win over Sean. Merab would get one of them, most likely, just a matter of how all of that shakes out. In general, I think Chito would be a better matchup for Merab just because Chito has a history of fighting off of his back, but it's hard to say that anyone is a bad or good matchup in this division right now. Merab isn't a fun night at the office for anybody and it's only a matter of time before he's fighting for the belt, one way or another.
Petr Yan is in a really unique situation. He's still thought of as the best fighter in the weight class by a significant percentage of people, yet he's on a really cold streak in terms of wins and losses. The difference is that all of those previous losses were close, controversial, or both. The DQ loss to Aljo was a fight that he was going to win had he not landed the illegal strike. He won the Sandhagen fight and did so pretty convincingly. However, he lost a close fight to Aljo in the rematch, although I thought it was a clear, but close fight. Then he lost a razor thin split decision to Sean O'Malley that a lot of people thought he won. While he may have won that fight, I thought there were some interesting developments there. Seeing him get out struck at range by O'Malley so consistently wasn't what a lot of people were expecting. This one may be cause for concern though. Merab is a great fighter, there's no doubt about that now, but Yan didn't look great. Instead of just starting slow, he stayed slow. He was never able to really get anything going and looked generally overwhelmed. Seeing Merab overwhelm someone isn't shocking, but to see someone like Yan on the other end of it was eye opening. What really was surprising is just how little success Yan had in the striking. He wasn't getting held down, but had virtually no meaningful moments in the fight. He rarely landed anything clean and even when he did, it didn't impact Merab at all. It looked like Yan either got a bit discouraged, tired, or both down the stretch too. After the third round, it just didn't feel like he had any chance of turning it around. This loss just felt more demoralizing and it felt like everyone was collectively wondering what is next for Yan before the fight even ended. He definitely needs a reset as this wasn't really a good look for him, even against someone who would do the same to a vast majority of guys in the division.
As for a next opponent, it sort of feels like it's time for Yan to take a bit of a step back and reset. There's three fights in the coming months where I think the winner of that fight could get Yan next. First, I think we see Yan take a bit of an extended break. I would be pretty surprised if it's a 3-4 month turnaround for him. That first fight is Song Yadong vs Ricky Simon. Based on what we just saw, it doesn't seem like Simon would be a fun matchup for him right now. Yadong is no joke, but that seems like a fight where Yan would at least be given the style of fight that he wants. The next is Rob Font vs Adrian Yanez and if I'm being honest, this one feels like it may be the most likely. Both of these guys will stand and strike with Yan and also open the door for him to have grappling success if he wanted to. Because of his fan support, Yanez may be the fight that gets the most buzz as well, so that's something to consider. The final potential winner would be the winner of Pedro Munhoz vs Chris Gutierrez. This is the one that feels least likely just because they're both still a bit away from Yan in the rankings. I guess if Gutierrez comes out and wins in very impressive fashion then he could put himself in the conversation, but that would feel like a huge jump. I think a Song Yadong fight, win or lose, kind of represents a really good middle ground. It's a tough fight, but not someone who is going to challenge for a title with one more win. He also projects to give Yan the style of fight he wants. However, it doesn't drop Yan down so far that it feels like they're just trying to hand him a win. I'm not even sure a fight like that exists at bantamweight right now even if they wanted it. Simon is probably the toughest fight if they want to go that route. I like Yadong, even if he loses to be honest.
What do you guys think? What do you make of the fight? Who do you want to see them fight next? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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