Unfortunately, the midweek posts have slowed significantly recently. I've been working too much overtime to be able to do everything I want, so the Izzy vs Pereira reaction unfortunately fell by the wayside and the welterweight title picture post is still in the works. I'm hoping to get this out and not have it be too compromised, but it may not be as long as usual. On a more positive note, the betting side of this is finally looking up and it's been a very kind month of March. We have a longer card here than usual, so I'm not going to waste anymore time. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Joselyne Edwards defeats Lucie Pudilova Result: Edwards by decision (1-0)
I really don't have a ton to say or a great feel for this fight. I suppose I sort of expect this to be a typical Joselyne Edwards type of performance. She's going to want to stay on the outside and throw a lot of kicks from range. She's not a poor striker necessarily and she has thrown decent enough volume at times, so that's sort of what I think the most likely outcome is. Pudilova is probably the better striker with more power, but I don't think it fits this fight. Pudilova would be better served to have this fight take place in a phone booth and Edwards just won't allow that. Pudilova doesn't really cut angles well enough to force that to happen in my opinion. I thought that in her last fight though and she came out with a really grappling heavy game plan. I don't think she's a particularly good wrestler, but Edwards has looked so lost from bottom position that a takedown is probably the end of the round. That is really enough to make me question how this is going to go, but it still does feel like Edwards winning a decision based on front kicks to the body is the most likely outcome.
Bets to consider: Edwards ML +118
This is a weird one to bet. I do believe that Edwards winning a slow paced outside kickboxing match is the most likely thing we'll see. That would mean that I should be betting Edwards, but I really don't want to. My concern is that it feels like Edwards best path to victory are still pretty narrow margins. On the other side, if it turns out Pudilova can get takedowns, she'll probably look -500 or better. While I think Edwards is the most likely to win, it feels like all of the upside is on the Pudilova side of things. I guess if Edwards kept going and it gets out over +150 then I would have to think about it, but this isn't a fight I'm really looking to attack anything.
Aaron Phillips defeats Gaston Bolanos Result: Bolanos by decision (1-1)
The main thing that comes to mind when I look at this fight is "why?". It's another one that I just really don't even know what to say. We're getting Bolanos who has had middling success in Bellator and is 6-3 in his career overall. I guess Bolanos is fine, but I'm not overly confident in any aspect of his game. He kind of strikes me as one of those guys who is moderately well rounded, but just at a low level. He has some knockouts, but the level of competition isn't enough for me to really buy in. It wouldn't surprise me if he were the better striker here, but I'm not even convinced he is. Phillips is someone who has been away for awhile now and he's really an unknown at this point. Phillips certainly isn't someone I'm pegging as a future champion, but he's not the worst fighter in the world either. I think he would be competitive in a stand up fight and he probably could grapple his way to a win if he wanted to. He hasn't had success against high level competition, but that experience has to mean something right? I don't know, I'll take Phillips.
Bets to consider: Phillips ML +160
In a fight where both sides have as many unknowns as this one has, I don't think having one side be +160 makes a whole lot of sense. There's just so much variance at play that I would much rather be sitting there with a +160 ticket than a -190 one. With that said, I'm not running to the window to play Phillips. I don't think he's an overly impressive fighter, but the more experienced side where there's not a clear style disadvantage at play isn't he worst look ever. I wish the number was a little better and if we get there, I may take the plunge.
Bruna Brasil defeats Denise Gomes Result: Gomes by KO (1-2)
This fight is equally as strange as the previous two, but it is at least somewhat interesting. There's two conflicting styles that at least give this fight a bit of intrigue. Brasil is a fighter who is mildly skilled, but just lacks the upside. She's a technical striker, but she lacks the high end output or power to really make anything big happen. She's a decent enough grappler as well, but again, nothing too exciting. Gomes is pretty much the exact opposite. I don't think she has the technical ability that Brasil has anywhere, but she's very aggressive and is going to force the fight. I do ultimately side with the more technically skilled fighter in Brasil though, mainly because of Gomes lack of defense. She can get touched up on the feet and I do sort of expect that to happen here. Gomes may have the better submission game, but Brasil is more likely to be on top if we get any grappling exchanges in this one. It's not a supremely confident opinion, but it's the safest I've felt in a fight yet on this card.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +160
I think Brasil being around -155 is just fine. I wouldn't bet her at that number, but the line seems more or less accurate to me. I do think the under may be an interesting consideration though. If Gomes is going to win, it will probably have to be early. She's going to come out hot and force the action one way or another. She's either going to put in on Brasil early or she is going to take a lot of damage coming back the other way. Her defense lacks as well and she could get herself knocked out. I'm not sure I'll do it, but I would rather that than a side in this one as things currently stand.
Lando Vannata defeats Daniel Zellhuber Result: Zellhuber by decision (1-3)
Zellhuber is in a bit of a weird spot. So many were high on him going into his last fight when he unexpectedly lost and now everyone is asking questions. At this stage, Zellhuber seems to be more of a physical traits kind of guy than a refined mixed martial artist. He's big, he's a solid enough striker, he has some power, and he's tough. Beyond that, he has question marks. His volume sort of comes and goes and I don't trust his cardio. I also suspect that he isn't that great of a grappler. Vannata isn't going to knock your socks off or anything, but he's just a really solid fighter. He's a decent enough striker as well, but will be at a significant reach disadvantage. His real edge in this fight should be in the wrestling. Vannata is a competent wrestler and I just kind of think that should be enough. I think it's a pretty even fight on the feet. Zellhuber has the reach, Vannata probably a cardio edge. Neither guy with great defense. The difference for me is the grappling potential as well as the experience and strength of schedule for Lando. Lando has beaten better fighters many times while this is probably the toughest fight of Zellhuber's career.
Bets to consider: Vannata ML +108, U2.5 +152
This is the first fight I feel some degree of comfort attacking. I just think Lando needs to be a favorite in this one. He's not an amazing fighter or anything, but given the style dynamics, I just think he should be closer to the -140 side than having Zellhuber -130. The under being that heavily in plus money doesn't make a ton of sense to me either. These are two fighters who don't mind getting into a brawl who don't have great defense and a little bit of power too. There should be enough strikes landed in this one to make the under the side to play in his one.
Gillian Robertson defeats Piera Rodriguez Result: Robertson by submission (2-3)
I'm a bit torn on this fight, much like I am about almost all Gillian Robertson fight. Her style is just so direct and it's either going to work or it's not. That dynamic makes it really difficult fort Robertson to be in a competitive fight. Either she's going to get takedowns, in which case she'll dominate on top, or she's going to be forced to stand and she'll get dominated. Rodriguez will probably have some degree of success early on in this fight. Robertson isn't an amazing wrestler and doesn't really have the strength to force takedowns early. Rodriguez is a fairly technical striker and has some good power on her shots. She's going to be able to land early on Robertson and it isn't out of the realm of possibility that she finds the knockout. The issue is that Rodriguez is going to slow down. When she does, it becomes increasingly likely that Robertson gets the fight down. Once she does, it's going to be pretty much one way traffic. I think Robertson is able to survive early and probably finds the submission in rounds 2 or 3.
Bets to consider: Robertson ITD +185
Betting Gillian Robertson fights that are lined like this is near impossible. We're getting a competitive line in a fight that isn't likely to be competitive. Either Rodriguez dominates on the feet or Robertson dominates in the grappling. Rodriguez may be ok early, but when she starts to gas out, she's probably going to hit the mat. She hasn't been great on bottom in her career and Robertson is as dangerous as they come on top. My instinct is that Robertson finishes a gassed out Rodriguez in the second half of the fight, but it's hard to bet. Getting Robertson ITD near +200 is the way I would go, but it's a tough spot.
Ed Herman defeats Zak Cummings Result: Cummings by KO (2-4)
This is truly a fight and a half. I really don't think there's anything that could happen in this fight that would surprise me. Both guys are coming to the end of long careers, but it really hasn't been pretty. Herman is on the wrong side of 40 and just hasn't looked very good recently. He's a bit slow these days and he doesn't have a great gas tank. He should have the better output though and I guess he's probably a better grappler. Cummings is also old and doesn't have great output. His cardio also isn't particularly great, but he should have the better power in this fight. This fight should be pretty competitive. The reason I go with Herman is that he's just been a more active competitor recently. Cummings has been away for over two years now and that amount of time away from competition at his age really isn't what you're looking for. Anything could happen, but I guess I'll go Herman here.
Bets to consider: Herman ML +188
For every negative thing you could say about Ed Herman, it still doesn't add up to him being +190 here. Zak Cummings being over -200 in a fight these days just isn't a reality that I or anyone else reading this lives in. I can't say I'm super excited about the prospect of potentially losing money on Ed Herman, but I am starting to feel like I almost have to just live with it. Cummings is in his late 30s, coming off of a multiple year lay off and is saying that he is retiring after this fight. What could possibly go wrong? I don't want to bet Herman, but, like, come on. I don't know, I guess I might.
Matheus Nicolau defeats Brandon Royval Result: Royval by KO (2-5)
In a vacuum, I really like a lot of what Nicolau can do. He's an extremely skilled fighter in almost all aspects. He's a good technical striker and is really good when countering. He's also pretty good defensively on the feet and doesn't take a lot of damage. He's a talented grappler as well. The wrestling isn't amazing, but once he's on the ground, Nicolau has good top control and a very solid submission game. Skill for skill, he probably has Royval covered. The one glaring issue is that Nicolau is very, very content to do almost nothing. He can be outworked almost effortlessly. That plays exactly into Royval's skillset. Royval isn't particularly technical anywhere, but he just brings the fight. He's going to bring the output and activity in both the striking and grappling. What has me on Nicolau though is Royval's just lack of defense. He gets hit pretty cleanly and doesn't stop takedowns at all. Maybe he could just outwork Nicolau, but I kind of think Nicolau is just better. It's kind of a weird one though.
Bets to consider: Royval ML +168
Nicolau at -196 sort of feels like the best case scenario for him. If Nicolau was committed to takedowns and was able to hold Royval down for all 3 rounds, then -200 is fine. However, I'm not sure he will shoot that much or that he could hold Royval down even if he did. What will keep me passing on Royval though is just the technical gap. Royval doesn't defend strikes and Nicolau is very good on the counters. Royval doesn't defend takedowns and Nicolau is a technically sound grappler. Royval is good at creating scrambles, but he does so by just creating movement. He could easily find himself in a worse off position and getting submitted in this one. It's just the output that makes Nicolau a clear pass.
Bill Algeo defeats TJ Brown Result: Algeo by submission (3-5)
I'm too much of a Bill Algeo fan to pick against him, but I did at least consider it for a brief moment. Brown has some stylistic advantages that make him very live here. He has good power and is a pretty good wrestler. Algeo doesn't stop takedowns particularly well and doesn't defend strikes all that well either. There's a couple of things that still allow me to go with Bill here. The first is that Brown has a weird tendency to get reversed or out scrambled. Bill isn't a great wrestler, but he scrambles very well and I could easily see him ending up on top in this fight. The other is that I don't trust Brown's cardio. Even with early wrestling success, Bill will create scrambles. Even if he doesn't end up on top, he's going to force Brown to work and that is going to give Algeo a bigger advantage late. Algeo has good cardio and throws great volume on the feet. I think this fight looks competitive early, but Bill pulls away late.
Bets to consider: Algeo round 3 or decision +115
On the money line, it feels like a trap spot. You feel confident that Brown will look better than +170, but at the same time, it doesn't feel like he actually wins at a significant enough clip to make it worth it. I think playing Bill late is the way I would look to go. I fully understand all of the shots on Brown though. Bill's lack of defense both standing and wrestling will make this one interesting for as long as Brown has the energy to keep up with him.
Rafa Garcia defeats Clay Guida Result: Garcia by decision (4-5)
It sort of feels like we are finally at the end for Clay Guida. He just hasn't really looked like his old self for a few fights now. His output really isn't there, the danger isn't there, his cardio isn't as good as it used to be, and the durability is even fading a bit now. Garcia, on the other hand, is in his physical prime. He’s not a perfect fighter, but he’s well rounded enough give a lot of people problems. I think he's actually pretty good, but his cardio has held him back at times. He's a decent striker with good power, but his volume isn't always there. His striking defense is a bit weak though. His grappling is fine and his physicality certainly helps in that aspect. I don't doubt that Guida could have some success, but I think his age really just puts him behind the 8 ball in a lot of aspects. A prime Guida has a real shot here, but I think this version may just be too far gone.
Bets to consider: Guida ML +215
Forget prime Clay, even a handful of years ago, I would've gladly taken the shot on Guida here at over +200. However, I just don't know that he has it left in the tank. He's very clearly declining fight to fight and there exists the very real scenario where he just goes off the cliff and goes down to jabs now. I think if Clay had more of a path to finishing this fight then I would be more likely to play him here. I just don't really think he has it in him to grind Garcia out though at this stage of things.
Chris Gutierrez defeats Pedro Munhoz Result: Munhoz by decision (4-6)
Really starting to get up against the clock here, so going to keep it short. I think some style dynamics really work in Chris's favor here. Munhoz is a decent striker with good power and good low kicks. He just has problems against guys who move well on the outside. That is exactly what Chris is going to do. He's going to move well laterally and land his own low kicks. Pedro's defense is also a concern. Chris doesn't do a ton of boxing, but whenever he throws hands, he's going to land. I think we see Gutierrez land a lot of his low kicks and really put the volume on Munhoz. Pedro could knock him out, but as long as Chris doesn't stand in front of him, then he should be fine.
Bets to consider: Gutierrez by decision +115
I really think Pedro is going to have a tough time corralling Gutierrez and probably won't land as much as we're used to him doing. Most likely we see Gutierrez beat up the lead leg of Munhoz and landing whatever punches he does throw. Munhoz doesn't defend strikes well, but he has always had a chin. Chris doesn't have a ton of power, so I don't really think a knockout is in play. Chris is over -200, but having his decision line at +115 is interesting.
Ion Cutelaba defeats Tanner Boser Result: Cutelaba by KO (5-6)
I really don't like being on the side of Ion Cutelaba, but here I am. Cutelaba isn't a bad fighter by any means, but his cardio is so bad that it really limits him. His striking is kind of meh, but he's aggressive and powerful so that is effective nonetheless. He's an aggressive grappler as well, but with mixed success. He loses position very easily and finds himself being submitted on occasions. Boser is coming down from heavyweight, so the physicality is going to be more his speed this time around. Even then, his defensive grappling is so poor that he probably gets taken down early somewhat easily. He isn't very good off of his back either and doesn't work to get up well. If he can survive early, he's going to put it on Ion late. Boser has shown pretty good cardio and if he makes it to the 7 minute mark, he is likely to be able to do whatever he wants. I just kind of think there's a legit chance Ion submits him early and even if he doesn't, I think Boser may go down to takedowns even against a tired Cutelaba.
Bets to consider: Boser late props
I just can't bring myself to bet this fight in any normal way. Cutelaba's gas tank makes him unplayable at favorite prices against almost anyone. Boser's takedown defense makes him really hard to play in this one as well. The over 1.5 is interesting since we should get a lot of grappling early, but -140 isn't anything great. I guess Boser round 3 at +1400 is interesting, but that's just a dart throw sort of play. Early Cutelaba props aren't good numbers either. Just a pass spot.
Dustin Jacoby defeats Azmat Murzakanov Result: Murzakanov by decision (5-7)
This is a tough one for me because I'm generally a fan of Jacoby and not so much of Murzakanov. I'm a bit biased, but I really think this is a good spot for Jacoby. He's bigger, longer, and the much more technical striker. He also has the better cardio and is more durable. Standing, I don't think Murzakanov has much of a chance. He's low output and just doesn't have the technical acumen to strike with Jacoby. He has the power to potentially find a knockout, but he really throws one strike at a time. If he doesn't land that overhand right, he's going to get badly outstruck. I suppose Murzakanov could have some success grappling, but even if he gets the takedowns, I find it unlikely he holds Jacoby down for very long. That's a big if though because I don't think Azmat's wrestling is all that great. Even if all of that broke his way, I am very confident that he doesn't have the cardio to do that for 3 rounds. Maybe the fight looks somewhat competitive early, but Jacoby puts it on him late here.
Bets to consider: Jacoby ML -162
I think -162 is a bit strange for Jacoby. He really just has Murzakanov covered. Any success that he could have is limited by his cardio. Jacoby is probably my most confident bet of the night. I think he could probably finish this fight light or even with low kicks to be honest.
Billy Quarantillo defeats Edson Barboza Result: Barboza by KO (5-8)
This is a cool fight. I'm not sure exactly how it plays out, but I think I have to side with Billy. We know he's tough and that he's going to put out volume. I don't think that matches up super well with Edson though. Edson is a better kickboxer technically, he's faster, and more powerful. While he's fresh, I think Edson is going to look really good. Billy hasn't dealt with low kicks well and his defense lacks in general. The reason I still side with Billy is that I don't trust Edson as much as I used to. His cardio isn't great and Billy could put it on him late. The bigger concerns for me are the grappling and the age related decline. Billy may be able to get takedowns here and if he does, Barboza is getting stuck on his back. It also appears that Edson's durability is starting to fade on him. All of that has to make Billy a favorite, but the early going could be really tough for him.
Bets to consider: Fight Doesn't Go the Distance -148
For money line plays, it would have to be Edson, but I'm not really looking to play a side here. The fight doesn't go makes a bit more sense. It covers the scenario where Billy can't get takedowns and just gets beat up on the feet. Barboza is more technical, more powerful, and faster, so he'll have his shot at a finish. You also cover the case where Barboza gasses and Billy overwhelms him late. You're also covered if Barboza is just cooked durability wise and can't take a shot anymore. The number isn't awesome, but it's fine.
Max Holloway defeats Arnold Allen Result: Holloway by decision (6-8)
I like Arnold more than a lot of people in the betting community, but this is a lot to ask. Even if we settle on saying Arnold is the more technical striker, which is debatable, he has some major gaps to close. Max has major MMA cheat codes. He pushes an insane pace without getting tired and his chin has been uncrackable so far. Allen is a guy who doesn't throw great volume, although he's picked that up more lately and has questionable cardio. Allen doesn't have huge power to find a knockout and he's not going to be able to wrestle Max in this one. It's just a really hard test for him to overcome. I think in terms of MMA skills he can compete, but the pace of Max is probably going to put him ahead, especially down the stretch.
Bets to consider: Holloway 4, 5, decision +130
I think I'm going to play the money line and 4, 5, decision on Max. He's just such a hard guy to beat when you're not obviously better than him. If you can't keep up volume wise, you either have to wrestle with him or have the more damaging shots. Allen won't keep up on pace, he won't wrestle him, and we never really see Max even take a step back, let alone get hurt.
That's it for me on this one. Thank for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Lando Vannata ML .5 units at +108 to win .54 units
Vannata/Zellhuber U2.5 .5 units at +152 to win .76 units
Ed Herman ML .25 units at +188 to win .47 units
Bill Algeo round 3 or decision .5 units at +115 to win .58 units
Chris Gutierrez by decision 1 unit at +115 to win 1.15 units
Dustin Jacoby ML 2.5 units at -162 to win 1.54 units
Max Holloway ML 2.5 units at -172 to win 1.45 units
Max Holloway 4, 5, or decision 1.25 units at +130 to win 1.63 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 2.17 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 2.43 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + .26 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 6 - 8
Previous Year to Date Record: 89 - 43 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 95 - 51 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
Comments
Post a Comment