After taking last week off from betting due to my vacation, we are back with a full, normal post this week. Last week's PPV wasn't as bad as I had initially thought it could be and the crowd was really into it, which made it feel bigger. Charles vs Dariush was fantastic as we expected and that was really all I was asking for. We have a decent enough Fight Night in front of us though. From top to bottom, I think this is one of the more fun cards we've gotten in a minute, but the main event does kind of fall flat for me. I'm just not that into Vettori or Cannonier, so it's not something I'm super pumped for even though it is a main event worthy fight and should be fine. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Modestas Bukauskas defeats Zac Pauga Result:
This fight probably ends up being pretty messy, but it should also be fairly competitive. I do lean the Bukauskas side as I think he is just a more solidified and developed mixed martial artist, but the margins really aren't that wide. Bukauskas just doesn't really have a stand out skill that would allow him to really pull away in a fight. He is a moderately technical striker for his level, but he has middling volume, with average at best power, and he doesn't offensively grapple. The one big edge he does have here is his experience overall and his experience against legitimate competition. Pauga's game just seems a bit limited to me. He's not likely to have any grappling success in this one either and I think his technical striking is just a tick behind. He'll probably have a power advantage and maybe he ends up being a tad faster, at least while fresh, but I think I have to side with Bukauskas in this one.
Bets to consider: Pauga ML +152
I'm not sure how the line gets to this point. It's just hard to imagine this fight not being competitive because Bukauskas really just doesn't have the skill set to look -200 against virtually anyone. He doesn't grapple, doesn't have knockout power, and doesn't have great cardio. That just doesn't lend itself to looking like a large favorite against anyone of consequence. I think the technical striking is going to give Pauga problems, but he does throw volume while he has the energy. He does have at least some power. It's not that I have some supreme degree of confidence in Pauga, but this line just seems fundamentally incorrect to me.
Ronnie Lawrence defeats Dan Argueta Result:
This fight feels like a pretty good spot for Ronnie Lawrence. He burned me a bit last time and maybe I felt a little too highly about his abilities last time, but I don't foresee a ton of issues for him. He's a pretty good wrestler and he has the cardio to push the pace for the full 15. On the feet, Ronnie isn't anything special and his volume isn't especially great, but I think he may have the advantage there in this one. Argueta just doesn't really god anything that stands out to me. His striking also isn't that great and his volume on the feet is poor. He has some ability to grapple offensively, but he doesn't stop takedowns well and I suspect that Lawrence could out scramble him even if Argueta found a takedown of his own. If that's not enough, I think Lawrence will have a sizeable advantage in the cardio department. I think Ronnie pretty much has him covered.
Bets to consider: Lawrence ML -194
Betting favorites like this has been a weak spot in my game for awhile now and I'm trying to be more aware and potentially aggressive on fighters with minus numbers in front of their names. -200 is a fairly large number, but I think this could be a spot to play. I think Ronnie is better at almost every aspect of MMA and the cardio is what has me feeling better about a play here. I wouldn't be surprised if Ronnie finds a finish in the second half of the fight even though he isn't really known as being a finisher.
Tereza Bleda defeats Gabriella Fernandes Result:
I am very much torn on what I should think about this fight. The surface level analysis of this one is that we've seen Fernandes look pretty bad on the ground, especially from bottom and we've seen Bleda look pretty good on top. If that is the fight we see, I think things can get pretty ugly for Fernandes pretty quickly, but I'm not 100% convinced it actually is what we see. Bleda isn't a particularly good wrestler in my opinion and relies more on pure physicality and strength to just force her opponent to the mat. While she could do that early, Fernandes does have some takedown defense, especially from the clinch where Bleda gets most of her takedowns. The real concern though is that Bleda's cardio is in a pretty bad spot. She really just doesn't have the gas to push for 3 full rounds and if Fernandes can at least make her work in the first round, Bleda probably won't have much left for the final two rounds. On the feet, this fight is one way traffic for Fernandes. She's just a better striker in every aspect. She's a better technical striker with better power, more output, and faster hands. There is probably going to be a point where this fight flips and I'm not sure if Bleda can survive it when she's gassed. She has to be favored because she could just wipe Fernandes out in the grappling early, but if she doesn't and can't just brute force takedowns late, she could find herself in real trouble.
Bets to consider: Fernandes ML +198
I'm not sure what I want to do here. If anything, it would have to be the Fernandes side, but I'm still undecided. What worries me is that Bleda really could look -500 here if things break her way. I'm leaning towards making the play though since Fernandes provided at least some resistance against Jasudavicius not too long ago and I think she's pretty clearly a better fighter and grappler than Bleda. I just don't really think Bleda is going to be able to force the takedowns late like she may be able to early and if this fight is at range, she's going to get beaten up. I might pull the trigger.
Carlos Hernandez defeats Denys Bondar Result:
I don't really have any solidified opinion on this fight. I just don't really feel like I have a good enough grasp on Bondar's game to say anything with a degree of confidence. He's a pretty decent wrestler, but beyond that, I don't feel great about much. His strength of schedule is so weak that it's hard to really put any stock into it. Hernandez, on the other hand, is about as mediocre as it gets. He doesn't really have any strengths and doesn't really have any weaknesses. He's probably the better striker in this one and will have the better output. He doesn't stop takedowns particularly well and that's the real worry. His grappling is just kind of ok, so I could see a scenario where Bondar comes out and is able to top time him somewhat easily. If he can't get the takedowns though, Hernandez should be ok striking. I just don't really have anything to gain any traction on to feel confident in saying this fight goes one way or another. Hernandez is the more known commodity, so I'll lean his way.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +140
Because there's so little to really grasp on to in this one, it makes it tough to bet. The only thing I could think to take a stab on is the under. My logic here is that the unknowns can make a finish somewhat likely on either side. If Bondar is better than I think, then he probably gets takedowns somewhat easily and can advance to dominant positions. He could set himself up for a submission. If Bondar isn't as good of a wrestler as we thought then Hernandez can keep it standing and he probably puts it on him standing. He doesn't have great power, but he may be able to just overwhelm him. I probably won't, but it's something if you want a play for every fight.
Christian Quinonez defeats Kyung Ho Kang Result:
This is kind of a weird fight, but also an intriguing one. I guess you could boil this down to striker vs grappler if you really wanted to, but it feels more layered than that. If this fight stays standing, I prefer Quinonez, not significantly, but by a noticeable margin. I think Kang can compete on a technical level, but he gets out worked in terms of volume by a wide-ish margin. I do think Quinonez is a bit more technical, especially with his close range boxing, but it's not by a huge amount. The path for Kang is going to be through is grappling. He's a pretty solid wrestler and his overall ground game is decent as well, but I'm not sure how committed he really is to using it. He really should've wrestled last time out and he just didn't. If he does that again here, it probably results in a loss for him. Quinonez does have some ability to grapple defensively, but if Kang got on top of him, I have to think Kang probably does good work there. I don't know. I just can't confidently say that Kang attempts takedowns in volume and that he gets the ones he does go for. If this fight is mostly striking, then I have to prefer Quinonez just based on his output.
Bets to consider: Kang ML +120
I really could only bet Kang here. The potential upside he has with the grappling makes him intriguing at plus numbers, but I think I may have missed the boat on him. He was bigger earlier in the week and now it's not quite as interesting. I'm not really that interested in the over or the under in this one either. I think this fight should probably be lined competitively and this just isn't far enough for me to jump in on when I already feel sort of uneasy about this fight in general.
Alessandro Costa defeats Jimmy Flick Result:
I don't really have a ton to offer on this fight. I'm not a huge fan of either of these guys' games as they currently stand, but I kind of think Costa is ok here. Neither are the worst fighter I've ever seen or anything of the sort, but they're just sort of lowish level. Flick's skill set is really reliant on him getting into dominant positions on the ground and finding submissions, which is whatever, but his wrestling really isn't good enough for him to get takedowns consistently against true UFC level opposition. The rest of his game is just not there. His striking is about as rudimentary as it gets. He's low output with little power and the technical awareness isn't there either. On top of that, he's got about 3-5 minutes of cardio before he's completely done and a finish will come soon after. It's not that I think Costa is a world beater, but if he can stop the takedowns, he really should be fine. He's clearly a better striker by every possible avenue. He's stopped takedowns fairly well in the past for the most part. If Flick did get him down, he may be in trouble, but I just don't really put a ton of stock into him being grounded in this fight. Even if he is, he just has to survive a few minutes before Flick gasses himself out. Costa can win rounds 2 and 3 in this fight at a pretty high rate and probably finish.
Bets to consider: Costa ITD -120
I know what you're thinking and I'm never the guy to advocate for playing juiced props, but the other lines are kind of gone. I'm not laying almost -300 on Costa and I really can't get behind a play on Flick either since his path to victory is so one track. Playing inside the distance props at minus money is probably a good way to lose money in the long term, but it's really the only way to play this fight. Simply, I really don't think Flick is capable of making it to a decision in a fight that he's losing. If he's getting hit and taking damage, I think he probably folds. If he's winning, then Costa was never the side in the first place. If Costa is rightfully -290 and the under 2.5 is rightfully -230, then I don't think -120 Costa ITD is the worst bet ever, but I can't really say go big on it either.
Muslim Salikhov defeats Nicolas Dalby Result:
This fight is probably going to end up being pretty bad, but I guess it will be sort of close. This is sort of a case of two fighters who are almost too similar and it creates a weird dynamic as to how this fight plays out. Both guys are low volume and similar levels of grapplers. Salikhov has gotten wrestled pretty badly in the past at times, but I really don't think Dalby is at that level. On the feet, Salikhov wants to sit back and counter, but Dalby isn't really going to push much and give him the opportunity. This is going to leave us with a very low output kick boxing match and I guess I have to side with Salikhov there. He's just a cleaner striker and he has the better power as well. He has looked like he's declining pretty steadily over his last few fights, which does worry me some, but Dalby is the same age, so I think Salikhov should actually be relatively ok here.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -176
I think the money line situation is more or less correct, bordering on getting a little wide. I prefer Salikhov, but getting close to -190 with the way he's looked recently may be a stretch. With that said, I definitely have no interest in Dalby at the current numbers. The over is a bit juiced, but I don't really think a finish is all that likely. Dalby is a decision machine and Salikhov has gone to decision pretty consistently when he's fighting someone on his level. When he's taken massive steps up or down is when his finishes have come and I don't see that here. Dalby isn't going to force a fire fight either so, a juiced over may not be the worst look in the world.
Nikolas Motta defeats Manuel Torres Result:
I guess this is a hot take, but I kind of like how these styles match up for Motta. Neither guy is going to grapple, so we can get that part out of the way, but on the feet, I think I prefer Motta. Torres is a guy who is going to come forward and force a fight to happen in the pocket. He's got power and he's hyper aggressive. Beyond that, I think his game is pretty average. He doesn't have good defense and takes almost everything coming back at him right on the chin. He has largely held up durability wise, but I think Motta has the most power he's ever faced. From a technical aspect, I think Motta is a lot better and he should be able to really punish Torres on the counters. The one thing is that Motta does have some problems with his durability. He has multiple knockout losses on his resume and Torres clearly has the power and style to take him out. If Torres doesn't find that knockout quickly, I think Motta really takes over. I think he can hurt him badly by countering or just keep him at range and cleanly out strike him.
Bets to consider: Motta ML +154
With that said, I have to take a swing at Motta at +154. I'm just not sure how we get all the way to Torres -185. If the durability questions with Motta are enough for you to want to favor Torres, then I guess I understand, but it can't be that big. Torres is a kill or be killed kind of guy. He's going to swing with you until someone goes down. That style just doesn't lend itself to big favorite numbers, especially when his opponent is a better technical striker with power of his own. I just don't really see how you get beyond Torres -120 at best. I think there are real scenarios where we wake up Sunday morning and realize that Motta was just a much cleaner striker and he looks like he should've been -185.
Pat Sabatini defeats Lucas Almeida Result:
This probably won't be the most exciting fight in the world, but I like this spot for Sabatini. Almeida is dangerous and he has the power to end this fight quickly, but that is really his only path. Sabatini was knocked out last time, so maybe he can get cracked again, but if Almeida doesn't get that first round knockout, things probably go pretty sideways for him. Sabatini is just a significantly better grappler and has the much better cardio. Almeida has struggled with grapplers in the past who really aren't even close to Sabatini's level. Pat is a pretty good wrestler and I suspect that he can get to his takedowns without too much of an issue. Once he's on top, I think things get pretty ugly for Almeida. Sabatini probably submits him if he's getting extended time on top. On top of that, Almeida also doesn't have great cardio, so Sabatini can really put it on him late.
Bets to consider: Sabatini by submission +240
Sabatini by sub at +240 really doesn't sound that crazy given the gap in grappling skills and cardio. I'm not sure if Sabatini at -190 is worth a play or not, but I'm considering it. He really should have no issues here. Almeida can be dangerous early, but Sabatini has everything he needs to minimize that.
Armen Petrosyan defeats Christian Leroy Dunacan Result:
I wasn't really a huge Duncan fan going into his last fight and nothing really happened to move me off of that opinion here. Duncan is what he is. He's a big, explosive guy with really good power. He could certainly knock Petrosyan out here and it wouldn't necessarily shock me, but I don't think it's particularly likely either. Petrosyan has poor takedown defense and we have seen Duncan wrestle at times, but I find it pretty unlikely that he's going to come out and attempt 4+ takedowns in this one. If he did, I have my questions as to how his cardio would hold up to that. Duncan is low output standing and I think that is what ultimately hurts him here. Petrosyan is a more technical and more experienced kick boxer who is going to throw a lot more volume. We've seen Petrosyan beat much better strikers already in his career. If he does get taken down, I think his get ups are fine for someone with Duncan's grappling ability. If Duncan doesn't get that early knockout, I think Petrosyan out strikes him pretty cleanly.
Bets to consider: Petrosyan ML +128
I just don't understand this line. Petrosyan is the more experienced fighter, the more technical striker in a fight that will likely be all stand up, and has significantly better output. Duncan has the power and he has a reach advantage, but is that really enough to get to -150. It's not like Petrosyan has a history of poor durability or something. I just don't really get how Petrosyan isn't around -130 or so.
Arman Tsarukyan defeats Joaquim Silva Result:
I don't know what you really want me to say here. Arman is one of the best fighters in the entire weight class and now he's fighting Joaquim Silva, who's only win since 2019 is what was left of Jesse Ronson. Tsarukyan is better are probably every single aspect of MMA. Better striker, better wrestler, better ground game, faster, more powerful, and better cardio. Arman isn't inherently a finisher, so this fight probably goes a bit longer than most people are anticipating, but this should be one way traffic.
Betting Thoughts:
I really don't know how to bet this fight. I guess if you wanted to take a poke at the over 1.5 that could be the move? Arman really isn't a guy who comes out looking to aggressively finish, so getting an over 1.5 at +120 could be something. However, he's just so much better than Silva that I'm not really looking to hold my breath waiting for the 2:30 mark of round 2.
Marvin Vettori defeats Jared Cannonier Result:
This fight probably ends up being pretty competitive. I just think that Vettori has the more diverse and complete skill set, so I lean his way. Cannonier is a pretty simple fighter, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Cannonier has good power in his hands and throws good low kicks. Beyond that, he's just kind of ok. He's an alright defensive grappler with a pretty good get up game if he does go down. His striking is fine, but on the basic side. He throws decent enough volume, but nothing that stands out. It's really just his power and low kicks that have allowed him to rise as far as he has. Vettori also isn't the most amazing fighter you'll ever see, but I think he just has some more tools in the shed. On a technical level, he's probably about even with Jared in the striking, but Marvin is going to throw much better volume and he's going to bring the forward pressure. He could walk into some big shots, but Marvin has been extremely durable in his career. That may be starting to fade on him just a little, but I don't think he's completely cooked or all that close to it. Marvin also has the ability to mix in takedowns. I would be pretty surprised if he had sustained top time, but I think he could probably get a few takedowns in this one. The biggest thing for me is just the cardio and the pace Marvin can bring. He's always brought pace and pressure and that really isn't Jared's game. Jared is also approaching 40 years old while Marvin is still on the right side of 30, so I think Marvin should have more left in the tank. I kind of think we largely get a close fight. Marvin will land more strikes, but Jared will land with more power. I like Marvin more in the late rounds and his ability to mix in takedowns has me leaning his way, but not by much.
Bets to consider: Vettori 4, 5, or decision +105
This is kind of a tough fight to bet for me just because I think the margins are so thin. If you lean the Vettori side, I think going 4, 5, or decision is a decent enough way to get to plus money. By decision is only +130, so I think buying a late finish just incase Jared goes over the hill is fine. If you want Jared, I think the +106 is fine. It's harder to make this kind of play on him because he has the power to finish, so I think the Cannonier ML is ok as is. If your book offers split decision props that could be interesting as well.
That's it for me on this card. It feels good to be back to full write ups. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Zac Pauga ML .5 units at +160 to win .80 units
Ronnie Lawrence ML 1.90 units at -190 to win 1 unit
Gabriella Fernandes ML .5 units at +200 to win 1 unit
Nikolas Motta ML 1.5 units at +154 to win 2.31 units
Pat Sabatini ML 1.96 units at -196 to win 1 unit
Pat Sabatini by submission .5 units at +240 to win 1.20 units
Armen Petrosyan ML 1.5 units at +128 to win 1.92 units
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