We're on a bit of a cold run recently. We're alternating winning and losing weeks, but the losing weeks have been really bad. Consistency is key in this game, but we'll get there eventually. We're in store for a pretty solid PPV this week, which ends with Sean O'Malley's first title shot. Aljamain Sterling is trying to become the best bantamweight in UFC history and there's some who thinks he's already there. If you're saying only in UFC history, then maybe, but all time, I think he may need this win and maybe another before he passes Dominick Cruz, but that's just me. The card is pretty solid outside of the TUF finals, really. It's not even that the TUF finals are the worst fights you'll ever see, but they're just low level fights that we have to pretend are a bigger deal than they really are. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Maryna Moroz defeats Karine Silva Result:
Silva has been impressive so far and she's clearly a very dangerous fighter, but I think this step up in competition may be a bit too much too fast for her. Silva has dangerous elements to her game, that's not to be disputed. It's the fine details that may hold her back at the higher levels. Her striking is definitely the weaker part of her game as things currently stand. She has some power, but her shots are wide and her technical striking just isn't anything that special. Her grappling is much better, especially from a submission standpoint. On the ground, she's definitely better here. The problem that could arise is that she's not the greatest wrestler. Now, Moroz isn't the next champion or anything, but she is a more refined fighter at this stage. On the feet, I don't think it's super competitive. Silva could clip her, but Moroz is a much more technical fighter at range. She's going to bring better output as well and has the better cardio over the full 15 minutes. I do sort of worry about Moroz getting taken down as she doesn't have a history of stopping takedowns very well, but Silva's wrestling isn't particularly great. While her defensive wrestling isn't great, her offensive wrestling is probably better than Silva's. Silva has the grappling edge, Moroz is no slouch there and I think she could defend herself if she did go down or not get submitted if she's the one on top. I like Moroz here.
Bets to consider: Moroz ML +122
I think making Silva a moderately sized favorite is just making a lot of assumptions. I think the current line implies that Silva has a pretty easy time getting this fight to the ground and I just don't see that being the case. Now, it may only take one takedown if Silva's submission game is even better than I thought, but if Moroz can stay safe like I think, then the striking gap and cardio gap make Moroz a small to medium favorite in my mind. I think a play on Moroz at this number or better is in order.
Natalia Silva defeats Andrea Lee Result:
This is kind of a strange fight in a sense that I feel like I have two opinions that oppose each other. We'll get to the betting side in a minute, but I just kind of think this fight ends up being pretty competitive. I think the grappling in this one is going to end up being more or less equal. Lee has struggled the most with grappling heavy styles in her career, but Silva isn't that level of grappler, especially from a wrestling perspective. I don't really see Lee having a ton of grappling success either. She has mixed in some takedowns at times, but I think Silva is probably good enough to stop those attempts or pop back up relatively quickly even if she did go down. On the feet, it's probably pretty even as well. Both women throw good volume with ok defense. The advantage for Lee is her experience. She's fought the much better competition on big stages. I think Silva probably has the athletic advantages though. She's faster and has better power. What has me leaning more to the Silva side is that Lee just didn't look like herself last fight and didn't even seem all that great against Araujo either. I don't think Lee is quite done yet, but I do have to lean slightly to the Silva side in this one.
Bets to consider: Lee ML +280
I really don't see how Lee is all the way at almost +300. She is on a tough losing streak, but this is a step down in competition for her against someone who should give her the style of fights she wants. I suppose that Lee could just go over the cliff, but I don't really think it's all that likely. If she has even 80% of her prime self in this one, she should make this a competitive fight. She has the size and reach advantage on top of being much more experienced against better competition. I can get behind Silva being a small favorite, especially with how the momentum is going on both sides, but +280 is really out there. I think I kind of have to be on Lee in this one.
Andre Petroski defeats Gerald Meerschaert Result:
This is a very interesting fight to me. Petroski is a guy that I liked in some aspects, but I was also a bit skeptical of in others and it turns how that he might be better than I initially thought. He's pretty well rounded, but the huge glaring problem has been his cardio. Last fight he looked much better in that regard, so if that isn't an outlier, that leaves Petroski without many holes, at least at the lower and mid levels of the division. I'm not ready to just say his cardio is fixed though and his striking is sort of average at best. Petroski is a good grappler though and I feel pretty good about him getting takedowns while he's fresh. On top is where things get a bit hairy for him. GM3 is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the UFC, especially from bottom. He's really good at finding submissions and reversing position. Petroski should be ok while he has energy, but once he slows down, he won't be able to just lay and pray GM3. Gerald isn't a great wrestler and I don't expect him to get takedowns of his own, but if he ends up on top somehow, I think he could also have a lot of success. On the feet, I think things are interesting as well. As I've said in the past, I think Gerald is a very underrated striker. On a technical level, I think he's decent. It just looks bad because his strikes are kind of slow, his defense isn't very good, and he's not the most durable guy in the world. Petroski is kind of the opposite. Technically, he doesn't present much, but he is a big, athletic guy who throws with power while he has the energy to do so. He certainly go KO Gerald here, but I think Gerald could do the same. GM3 likes to throw some kicks to the body as well and if this fight extends, that could really put Petroski's newfound cardio to the test. I have to go with Petroski here just because I think he wins the first round at a very high rate and he can probably get takedowns even when tired. Gerald does like to fight off of his back, so if he can't sweep a tired Petroski, he probably ends up losing a decision. If it turns out Petroski has fixed the cardio, then he might have Gerald covered completely.
Bets to consider: O1.5 -134
GM3 is currently sitting +196 and I'm honestly considering making a play there. If it gets out any farther, I'm probably going to end up jumping on it. I do feel pretty decent about the over though. I just think this fight sets up to go over more than it is getting credit for. Both guys are dangerous grapplers, but how often do we see that cancelling out. Petroski will be the one starting on top and I think he can stay safe while he has energy. On the feet, I think knockouts come later as well. If Petroski gasses then Gerald could knock him out, but I don't really see him finishing early. I don't think Petroski is likely to get any early knockout either just because they're not really the guys to just stand and trade. They're both on the lower volume side, so I don't think we see a slugfest standing unless they're both too tired to do anything else later in the fight. Gerald has had a problem with early knockouts, but I just don't think we see that kind of fight this time. Most finishes come in the second half of the fight in my opinion and seeing this set at 1.5 rounds and a decent number has me interested.
Brad Katona defeats Cody Gibson Result:
This brings us to the first TUF finale and I really don't have a ton to say about it. This is obviously a lower level fight and I think we'll probably see just that. I guess I would say that Gibson's striking may be the best individual skill in the entire fight, but even then, it's really nothing that stands out. Katona is just a much more well rounded fighter. The issue is that he has no real strengths, despite not having a true weakness either. I think in a fight of this caliber, that skill set will serve him well. He'll be good enough to compete at range and should have a grappling edge. Gibson does have a big reach advantage, but I kind of doubt he's the caliber of striker who is able to really use that effectively for the entire fight. He's also on the low output side of the spectrum, so his striking edge is sort of capped by that as well. In a fight that seems more or less even, I'll go with the guy who has more tools in his arsenal, but it's hard to really have a passionate opinion on this fight for me.
Bets to consider: Katona by decision or O2.5 rounds
I don't have any props for this fight yet, but those two are the ones I'm looking out for. I can't really bet Katona at close to -200 and I don't think it's wide enough for me to want to jump in on Gibson either. It's just too low level of a fight for me to want to get involved with the money line. I kind of doubt that the Katona by decision line is any good, but we'll see. The over is probably the best chance at getting something decent though. I don't really see either of these guys as a finisher, so if you can jump on an early over number, then that is probably the way unless they open it already juiced. I think the style matchup probably leads to Katona doing a lot of clinching and grappling, so over is what I'm looking out for.
Austin Hubbard defeats Kurt Holobaugh Result:
This is the other TUF finale and it's only marginally better. Hubbard is bringing much of the same skill set that I just talked about with Katona. He's not bad anywhere, but he's not particularly good anywhere either. I do think this is a slightly higher level fight though than the previous, so Hubbard is just a bit better than Katona. His striking isn't special, but it's alright. His grappling is also just kind of decent. He is the younger fighter in this one and I think we'll see a decent speed edge because of it. Holobaugh should have the skills to make this one competitive, at least in a vacuum. He throws decent volume, although he does take a little more damage. He's an ok grappler, but nothing out of the ordinary. I think one edge he does have is in the level of competition he's faced in his career, but the success he's had against the competition is pretty limited and it wasn't super recently either. Holobaugh is starting to get up there in age as well. I think this fight is probably reasonably competitive, but I prefer Hubbard.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -148
Hubbard -190 is probably a bit too wide, but at the same time, I just don't think I'm really looking to lose money on Holobaugh at this stage. If I felt there was more of a clear path for Holobaugh then maybe, but I just don't. I think his win equity is mostly going to come from a razor thin split decision and that's not really enough for me to want to take a shot at +150. I would rather be on the over at -148. That number isn't amazing, but I think it is reasonable. Neither guy is a crazy finisher, although they do have some degree of power. I think a finish in this fight is probably more likely due to Holobaugh aging than anything else. I don't know if I'll do it, but I'm at least considering it.
Gregory Rodrigues defeats Denis Tiuliulin Result:
This is a weird fight, but it should be a fun one. I think that Rodrigues is the one who ultimately determines how this fight goes. Tiuliulin is pretty reliable to do what he does. He's a guy who wants to come forward and get into a brawl because he has a lot of the skills to succeed there. He's big, he's got power, and he's a fairly durable guy. If he doesn't get that fight, his chances really fall off. Rodrigues does have the wider array of skills available to him in this fight. If he decides to grapple, I feel pretty good about how that fight goes for him. Tiuliulin isn't much of a grappler really at all. Rodrigues probably can get him down and once they're on the ground, Rodrigues would almost certainly be able to submit him. The issue is that Rodrigues just doesn't really go to his grappling as much as he should. There's been many times in the past when he should go to it and he just doesn't. If he does that again here, I still think he has the skills to win, but he's putting himself at risk. If he can strike with Tiuliulin from range, I still think he's ok. He moves a bit better and just has better ranged based skills, especially his low kicks. The monkey wrench being thrown into this equation is Robocop's durability. I really don't know what to make of it. We've seen him flatlined by Jordan Williams and he was just put out cold by Ferreira last time out. In between those results, we've seen him take bombs from Petrosyan, Marquez, and Chidi Njokuani basically like it was nothing. I don't really know what conclusions I'm supposed to draw from that. As long as Rodrigues isn't giving Tiuliulin the brawl he wants, he really should be ok, but the unreliable durability is at least a red flag.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 2 +102
This is a hard fight to bet for me just because it seems so unpredictable. If Rodrigues takes the path of least resistance, he probably submits Tiuliulin in the first round. If he does what he normally does, he can probably knock Tiuliulin out at some point, but likely a bit later in the fight. If he engages with Tiuliulin in the pocket, then someone probably goes down at some point. It's hard for me to ever bet under 1.5 rounds, but especially at -190. I would much rather go with a starts round 2 at plus money. I don't know if I'm actually going to do it or not just because there's so many ways this fight could go, but I'm thinking about it.
Brad Tavares defeats Chris Weidman Result:
This fight is truly a mess. I guess I'll start with Tavares, who used to be a very reliable fighter and still is to a certain degree. He's clearly declining and he durability may be starting to go with it, but the rest of his game is still mostly intact. He has elite takedown defense, which is going to be important in this one since we know Weidman wants to wrestle. On the feet, Tavares has always had the technical skills, but everything else leaves a lot to be desired. He doesn't really have power and his volume is just so low that he ends up making fights a lot closer than they should have otherwise been. I like Brad a lot more than I probably should in general because I think he's skilled, but the style that he brings makes his upside virtually 0. I really don't know if there's one thing I can feel confident in when it comes to Chris Weidman at this stage of his career. There is a very real possibility that Weidman comes out and looks like an old man in this fight. He's almost 40, coming off of a layoff over 2 years, and this is his first time back after his leg exploded in the cage. There are a lot of physical elements at play there and just as many mental elements to consider. It's almost impossible for me to say anything about Weidman with any certainty at all. I can only assume he's going to try and get back to his wrestling roots, but I can't even feel good that his takedowns will have any juice on them. I don't normally care too much about what someone looks like on the scale, but I just want to see what he even looks like at this point. I have to go with Tavares by default.
Bets to consider: O2.5 -108
With everything I just said, you have to imagine that this fight is a pass for betting and you would be right. I do sort of like the over because neither of these guys inherently fight with a style that makes you believe they're going to finish someone, but I really don't trust Weidman at all. Tavares is never going to be the guy to step on the gas even if he gets Weidman hurt or wobbled, but I'm not sure I trust Weidman to even really make it to that point. I just kind of need to watch this fight and use it as an inventory for the next time we see both of these guys.
Chito Vera defeats Pedro Munhoz Result:
Mario Bautista defeats Da'Mon Blackshear Result:
There's a lot going on in this fight. Blackshear is fighting for the second consecutive week after he took this fight when Cody Garbrandt pulled out. That is really my biggest concern for Blackshear. He is cutting weight for the second week in a row and has had virtually no time to create an actual game plan for this fight. This is also probably the best competition he's fought. Stylistically, I think there is a window for him as his grappling is pretty good, which we just saw. Bautista is a solid grappler, but not an amazing one, so there is a path for Blackshear to get takedowns. It's just really hard to say what he is like physically after going through an entire fight camp, getting a win, and now trying cut weight all over again with no recovery time. On the other side is Bautista, who is just a really solid, well rounded fighter. I think his striking is better though and he's looked really good recently. I do think Blackshear is one of the better fighter's Bautista has been matched up against in his last handful of fights though, so that is something to consider. Blackshear also presents a much different style than what he was preparing for with Garbrandt. I have to go with Bautista though just because there's so much unknown with what Blackshear will look like come fight night. He's another one where I need to see what he looks like on the scale before I really commit to anything.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds
I don't have any props on this fight either, but I'll be keeping an eye on the under whenever it drops. We just saw that Blackshear has some submission ability and I do kind of think he could get himself into some good positions against Bautista. At the same time, Bautista could really do some damage on the feet. I think he will have a noticeable speed advantage on top of just being a more advanced striker. If Blackshear's cardio or durability is at all compromised due to the second weight cut, then that only makes a finish more likely. I'll be interested to see where this line gets set.
Ian Garry defeats Neil Magny Result:
I'm very interested to see how this fight plays out. In the wider scope of MMA twitter, I think I've been relatively down the middle on Garry, but I do think he's a pretty solid fighter even at his age, which is what we've seen. This is kind of the next step for him though and it's a fight that we've seen Neil Magny win, I don't even know how many times at this point. Garry is a guy who is at his best when he can strike at range and keep the pace where he wants it. He throws good volume, but I think he is at his peak when he can keep things from getting too chaotic. Even though Neil is going to have a noticeable reach advantage, I think Garry is better at space. The speed difference in the striking is going to be very wide in Garry's favor and he's just a more gifted overall striker. The thing with Neil Magny is and has been for a long time that he has this ability to force his opponent to fight his fight. He's not the most skilled fighter you've ever seen and he has also pretty clearly started to decline. Magny just isn't someone who it is very easy to look good against unless you're someone who should be fighting for the title like Shavkat and Gilbert Burns. Neil is tough, long, well rounded, and still has really good cardio. He is known for doing really good work in the clinch and if he can get this fight there and keep it there, he probably has a real shot to win it. Neil isn't the guy he used to be, but I think he still has it in the tank to pull it off. He is taking this fight on short notice though, which if his cardio is limited at all, that is eating into one of his biggest weapons. We also don't know much about how Garry grapples from his back and Neil could challenge that as well. Given the short notice nature and how much Neil is clearly on the back end, I have to favor Garry here and pick him to win. The striking and speed gap is going to be tough to overcome.
Bets to consider: Magny ML +360, O2.5 rounds +100
I have a couple of spots that I'm looking at. I think Ian Garry should be favored in this fight and maybe even a fairly decent sized favorite. Over -500 though feels like it's baking in all of the upside without any of the question marks. Garry hasn't always looked untouchable in his brief UFC run. He was losing to Jordan Williams and almost got knocked out by Song Kenan, both who are much, much worse fighters than this version of Neil Magny. If it turns out that Garry stops all of the takedowns and can turn his back off the fence and disengage from the clinch, then maybe -500 doesn't look too bad. However, are we really this confident that he can do that against someone like Neil? I'm not confident enough to say that. I think Garry, even all the way out at -200 is justifiable, maybe even as much as -250, but -500 seems like a stretch. I think the over makes sense as well because Neil is still really only getting finished on the ground. He's too tough to just roll over and give up, even if he's losing badly. I think Garry is going to be more aware of distance in this fight to try and prevent himself from getting stuck in the clinch, which probably limits his volume a bit more than we've seen in the past. Neil has never really been much of a finisher, so I don't think we have to worry too much about that. I am going to put something on the over and probably end up taking a shot on Magny ML as well.
Zhang Weili defeats Amanda Lemos Result:
I think this most likely turns into a pretty fun fight. I do also sort of think that Weili largely has Lemos covered. I believe Weili is better in almost every aspect of MMA. I feel comfortable saying that she's a better striker with better output and she has good power. She's been mostly durable, although she has been knocked out before and has taken here fair share of damage. I think her offensive grappling is a bit underrated, but is sort of average at best. I think it has become underrated because her defensive grappling hasn't look very good over the years. If she gets stuck on her back, it usually gets pretty ugly for her. The biggest edge in her favor though is going to be the cardio. We all know Lemos has a cardio problem and if this fight gets extended, we probably see Zhang really take over. She's going to have better output the whole fight, but the gap will only get larger. None of this is to say that Lemos doesn't have a shot though. While Weili is more skilled, Lemos is still very dangerous. She's not a bad striker by any means and her power is probably the best in the entire division. Weili isn't known for her defense and if Lemos can land flush, she could put Weili in some trouble. Lemos is also an ok grappler and we know how much Weili has struggled there in the past. The biggest question for Lemos is her cardio. If she doesn't get the early finish, it seems pretty likely that she'll just fall too far behind on the striking numbers. When she starts to slow, she might be able to turn to the grappling, but I think a wrestling heavy game plan depletes her gas tank even faster. While this fight has some of the ingredients to potentially be interesting early, I think the cardio really caps the potential for Lemos to pull this one off.
Betting thoughts:
This one is a tough fight to bet for me. We have all of the props outside of a total. I'm not really expecting to get anything interesting on that total either to be honest. The money line is really juiced in Zhang's favor. It's way too big for me to want to play Weili given the danger Lemos presents. However, I don't think I believe in Lemos enough to take the shot on her even at +250. I don't think she has the game to submit Zhang and even if she has grappling success, I don't think she has the gas to maintain it. It kind of limits her to an early knockout and while that is a live outcome, I don't think I can say it's particularly likely either. We'll see what we get on a round total, but I might be marginally interested in an over, especially if we get it at 2.5 or 3.5 rounds, but I'm not really expecting a decent number to be attached to those. A 4.5 total would have to be a pretty good number though as Lemos feels like she almost has to finish to win and if she doesn't, the cardio gap may get her finished down the stretch. Probably better off just passing the whole thing.
Aljamain Sterling defeats Sean O'Malley Results:
This fight brings two very contradictory styles and when that happens, it usually ends up being one way traffic, one way or another. Very rarely do you get a striker vs grappler matchup where they trade rounds. Obviously, if we get mostly kickboxing for 25 minutes, Sean O'Malley is going to win this fight. He's taller, he's longer, and he's much more equipped to fight at range, and he's just a much more complete and dangerous striker. Sean has largely showed pretty good cardio even though we've never seen him go a full 25. I do at least wonder about how his cardio looks when grappling and not just all standup, but we've seen this guy fight off of his back foot for 3 full rounds and have his cardio hold up, so I generally think he'll do at least ok in that regard. We just don't know a whole lot about Sean's grappling still. We saw some against Yan and he got taken down some, but he also got up too. The thing is that Aljo is just a different level of grappler. If Sean is going to give his back to try and stand up, he's going to be in a very bad spot. Aljo is probably the best MMA grappler in the world right now when you combine wrestling and BJJ. If he solidifies top position or gets to the back in this fight, he will have a very good chance of finishing. We've seen Aljo have some success against much better grapplers than Sean. It's really just going to be a matter of staying safe until he can close the distance. If he gets impatient and tries to force it, he could get himself knocked out like he did against Moraes. If he gets himself hurt and becomes hesitant, he could stand at range and get himself picked apart. I think the visual of Aljo being knocked stiff by Moraes makes some people think his durability is worse than it is. Sean can definitely knock him out, but Aljo really hasn't been on skates almost ever. He was hurt in the first Yan fight, but that's about it. I don't think Aljo has insane cardio, but it's still pretty good. He's slowed down at times here and there, but he largely holds up pretty well. Aljo is also pretty sound defensively and doesn't eat a ton of clean shots as well. In a world where O'Malley stuffs all the takedowns, he probably wins fairly easily. I just don't think that's likely. I'm not sure how many extended ground exchanges he can survive, if any at all.
Betting Thoughts:
I think this fight is going to be a pass for me unless something weird happens to the lines. We have an under 3.5 right now at -140 and I think I'm just going to pass it. Aljo is currently -265 on the money line and I sort of have a feeling that I'll be looking at this one Sunday morning thinking I should have laid it. It's just that Sean is dangerous enough and weird enough that I don't really want to test it. I just have a weird feeling about this fight and I'm obviously not predicting an O'Malley win, but there's something in my gut telling me that he somehow makes this fight a lot closer than it should be. My head and my eyes are telling me Aljo could easily be north of -300, but I just don't feel like I should go for it. I think I'm just going to sit back and watch this one play out.
That's it from me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Maryna Moroz ML .75 units at +120 to win .90 units
Andrea Lee ML .5 units at +270 to win 1.35 units
Petroski/Meerschaert O1.5 rounds .75 units at -134 to win .56 units
Gerald Meerschaert ML .5 units at +205 to win 1.03 units
Vera/Munhoz U2.5 rounds .5 units at +245 to win 1.23 units
Magny/Garry O2.5 rounds .5 units at +120
Neil Magny ML .5 units at +385 to win 1.93 units
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