Last week we got one of the best events of the year and while a Fight Night can't really live up to that, we do have a pretty solid offering. I've been pretty transparent that Cory Sandhagen is one of my favorite fighters on the roster, so I'll be excited to see him fight almost anyone. I think Rob Font stepping in on short notice probably makes for a more exciting style matchup, but the Umar fight was a lot more intriguing from a consequences standpoint. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Ode Osbourne defeats Assu Almabayev Result:
This is kind of a weird fight to start off the night. Almabayev is making his UFC debut in this one and I think he has the style to give Ode problems. We've seen in the past that Osbourne isn't great off of his back against higher level competition. Almabayev is going to wrestle or at least try to. I'm just not fully convinced that he gets Osbourne down in this one. Ode has solid takedown defense and he's going to be the much bigger, stronger fighter. If Almabayev can't get this fight down, he's going to be in trouble. His striking just really isn't there. Fighting someone who is a much better striker who is also much longer and much faster is going to be a pretty bad time for him. I think Ode will also be able to have some success when Almabayev attempts to close distance. If Almabayev gets on top, I know he can have success there, but I'm not really convinced that he gets it there. If I had seen him against some better competition then maybe I would be more convinced, but that's just not the case.
Bets to consider: Osbourne ML +164
I'm just not really understanding how we're getting to Almabayev -200. I get that his path to victory could look very dominant in the best case scenario for, but at the same time, it's pretty one track. If he can get takedowns, he probably looks -500, but if he can't Ode might look -500. It's really the strength of schedule for me. Seeing Almabayev beat random people easily doesn't really do much for me when we've seen Ode Osbourne have more success against better fighters. I think playing Ode at this big of a number is fairly straight forward.
Sean Woodson defeats Dennis Buzukja Result:
I think this probably ends up being a pretty tough spot for Buzukja. I don't think he's anywhere near the worst fighter I've ever seen, but his game really makes it tough for him to win fights like this at this high of a level. He's a grappler by trade, but his wrestling just isn't really good enough for him to consistently land takedowns. He's a tough guy and he's willing to engage, but that's really the best traits he has. His striking isn't bad, but he takes too much damage for my taste. He's coming in on short notice and he's going to be at a huge size disadvantage. Woodson is huge for the division. He stops takedowns fairly well for the most part. I don't think he has much of an issue keeping this one on the outside. I think he probably wins by decision as I wouldn't say he has huge power, but he could get a volume based finish late.
Bets to consider: Woodson ML -184
Seeing Woodson only at -184 is a bit surprising. I don't think the number is crazy or anything, but we don't normally see guys get short notice opponents and end up under -200, especially someone who is an established UFC talent like Woodson. I think this line is actually playable because I just think Buzukja is kind of behind the 8 ball stylistically and the short notice aspect won't help.
Jake Hadley defeats Cody Durden Result:
This is kind of a weird fight, but it should be a decent one I think. Durden kind of is what he is at this point. It's sort of the same story with him fight after fight. He's a pretty good wrestler and his striking isn't nearly as bad as some people make it out to be. The huge issue is that Durden's cardio pretty consistently fails him. He fights through it fairly well though for the most part. I do ultimately have to pick Hadley in this one, but I don't feel good about it. Durden really should be able to get takedowns in this fight almost whenever he wants. Hadley just isn't a good enough defensive wrestler to stay upright. When the fight hits the ground, things should get interesting though. Hadley has a slick submission game and Durden has found himself in his fair share of submissions. On the feet, I think it might be more competitive than some are making it seem, but I do prefer Hadley striking. I think we get a pretty competitive fight, but I think Hadley has more ways to win.
Bets to consider: Durden ML +164
I think this line is just getting a bit wide. I understand Hadley being a favorite just because I think his potential to finish this fight both standing and grappling is very real, but -200 seems like a stretch. If this fight goes to decision, you have to think it's going to be competitive or Durden was able to control long stretches on top. I just think the gap in wrestling skills really prevents a fight like this from seeing Hadley much beyond a -150 or so number. I think a small play on Durden is justified.
Billy Quarantillo defeats Damon Jackson Result:
This is another pretty good fight. I almost picked Jackson outright, but I think I do have to side with Billy. Jackson really should be able to get takedowns in this fight. His wrestling isn't amazing, but it's solid enough. On the mat, I think he has a huge edge. I don't really trust any of Billy's grappling. He's not the worst and he has gotten up at times, but he's also gotten controlled at times. I think Jackson is one of the better grappler's he's fought and feel decent about the chance that Jackson submits him. What worries me about Jackson is that he didn't really seem all that urgent to get takedowns against Dan Ige and his durability. We've seen Jackson knocked out pretty badly on multiple occasions and while Billy doesn't have that kind of power, he's going to throw a ton. If this fight stays standing, I do think Billy has the better cardio and he'll have the better output. I think this is probably a pretty competitive fight to the end, but I just have to give Billy Q the benefit of the doubt.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -140
The under is a little bit juiced, but I still think it's in fine shape. This fight does feel like it is destined to finish. It's going to be high pace and high output from start to finish. Jackson can probably get to dominant position and will have his chances at submitting Billy. If he decides not to grapple again, Billy probably puts it on him standing and it's hard to trust Jackson's durability at this stage. I am also tempted to play the Jackson ML at +150, but seeing him attempt 1 takedown against Ige in almost 2 full rounds might be a big enough red flag to keep me off.
Carlston Harris defeats Jeremiah Wells Result:
I've struggled to really figure out how I think this fight is going to play out. I guess I'll start out by saying that both guys generally do want to mix in grappling, but I'm not sure if I see much success on either side. Neither guy hits takedowns at that high of a rate and they both stop takedowns pretty well. Harris is bigger and if I had to pick someone as being a better wrestler, I think I lean his way, but it's not by much. If this fight ends up staying clinched for long stretches, I think I prefer Harris there as well. I do expect most of this fight to be at range though. I prefer Harris from a technical standpoint. I think he is a cleaner striker and he will have a reach advantage here. He also has a bit more consistent output, but his defense isn't always there. Wells doesn't have great defense either, but if they're swinging in the pocket, Wells should have the edge. The athleticism gap is pretty wide, with wells bringing huge power and he should be a lot faster. Given the defensive liabilities that both guys have, it's hard to really prefer one significantly over the other. I lean Harris, but it's only a lean.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -180
You'll almost never see me advocate for unders this big, but this one is the exception. It's just kind of hard to imagine that this fight goes over the 2.5 round mark. It's really the defensive gaps on both sides that do it for me. Both guys have power and both guys are going to land. If Wells can land a big right, he has a very good chance of finishing. Harris will have his opportunities as well. It's hard to really back these big over/under numbers, but this might be a time to go for it.
Kyler Phillips defeats Raoni Barcelos Result:
I think we might be nearing the end of the line for Raoni. His recent performances have been pretty tough. In theory, I think he has or at least had, the skills to win this fight. Everything kind of aligns for this fight to be pretty competitive. I think the striking is relatively even. I prefer Phillips from a speed perspective and he's a bit bigger and longer. I think the grappling is relatively even as well, but I might give a slight edge to Raoni. The huge difference in terms of skills and traits for me is that Phillips pretty consistently slows down later in fights. It happens almost every time he's forced to fight at any pace at all. Raoni would have been able to put it on him late. The thing is though that I think Raoni may just be cooked. He's getting beaten up more now and he was just knocked out badly by Umar. His age isn't helping things either. In a fight that is mostly even, I have to go with the youth and speed of Phillips, but if Raoni still has gas in the tank, he could pull out a win.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +138
I had to check this a few times to make sure it was right. In a fight that I think is going to be high pace from start to finish, I have to take a look at the under. Barcelos seems to have fading durability and his defense has never been great. Phillips doesn't have great cardio and I think Raoni could end up finishing him late. If both guys are throwing with high volume and above average power, I just think the odds of a finish are much higher than what we're seeing implied with this number.
Ignacio Bahamondes defeats Ludovit Klein Result:
I think this is a pretty good fight for Ignacio. Klein has two paths to victory in my mind. He either has to clip Bahamondes early and knock him, which is possible, but not likely or he has to consistently out grapple him. Bahamondes doesn't have the best defense, so Klein could land, but he's never shown any durability problems, so that's why I don't put a ton of stock into that path. The other is to go grappling heavy and I think there's problems there as well. I don't think Klein is all that good of a grappler to begin with, but on top of it, Bahamondes has been stopping takedowns pretty well recently. Even if Klein could get a takedown or two, I don't really buy that he could hold Bahamondes down. If that isn't enough, I don't think Klein has the cardio to maintain that gameplan for 3 full rounds even if it works early. The much more likely scenario is that Bahamondes stays standing and beats Klein up at range. He's a much better striker, he's bigger and longer, and he has much better cardio. The volume gap on the feet is going to be far too significant. I just kind of think that ends up doing Klein in unless he can pull off something crazy.
Bets to consider: Bahamondes ITD +175
With Bahamondes sitting at -220, I think having him inside the distance at +175 is the way to play it. He's going to put it on Klein with the volume from the jump. Once Klein starts to slow, he could really step on the gas and just overwhelm him. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Klein get hurt, shoot a panic takedown, and get himself submitted. The other way to go would be the under 2.5 at +112. You lose a nice bit of the number, but it also covers Klein finding his own knockout, so there's a couple of different ways to approach the same idea in this one.
Tanner Boser defeats Aleksa Camur Result:
This is an odd fight. We're getting Camur returning after a really long layoff and it's hard to know what to expect from him in this fight. The last we saw of him, he was just sort of an ok, lower third of the roster type kick boxer who could mix in a takedown here and there. Now, I think I have to assume that he's improved some since then, but it's impossible to say how much. Boser is a more known commodity, but it's not all good. Boser is a decent enough striker himself with solid output and cardio. His grappling has just been so bad that unless he fights someone who just refuses to grapple, it's hard to really want to pick him. Camur has wrestled in the past, but not often and I don't think he's all that great. Maybe he's significantly better and just runs Boser into the ground. However, there's just way too many unknowns for me to really want to go with the Camur side.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +116
I think you have to at least consider playing the under in this one. If Camur is much improved, he could finish Boser. It wouldn't shock me if he knocked him out and certainly wouldn't surprise me if he submitted him. At the same time, with all the time away, it is hard to predict what state we will see Camur in when he shows up. Boser could just come out and put it on him right away. The amount of unknowns sort of points towards the under for me.
Gavin Tucker defeats Diego Lopes Result:
This fight has some strange elements to it as well. Much like the last fight, we're getting a fighter coming off of a multi-year layoff, in this case, it's Tucker. He was knocked out very, very badly the last time we saw him and he's not too far away from 40 years old now. Outside of the age related things, I'm really not that concerned for Tucker. Skill for skill, I think he's better at basically every single aspect of MMA. I think he's a better striker with better output and better defense. I think he's a better wrestler and I also think he has better cardio. The one place that Lopes might be better is in the BJJ department and I'm not even convinced he's better there. Lopes really isn't a great wrestler. He has some power on the feet, but he's kind of limited to wide hooks and his volume isn't all that great. I think Tucker really has him covered unless the age and time away has caught up to him.
Bets to consider: Tucker ML +146
I just really don't understand this number at all. Even with the time away and age concerns, for Lopes to be -180 is just wrong to me. Unless Lopes submits him fairly effortlessly, I really don't see how this makes sense. Tucker isn't just going to stand in front of him and let the hooks get off. Tucker isn't likely to get taken down by him. I just don't really understand other than Lopes surprising everyone against Evloev and Tucker being gone for so long. I'll be on Tucker here.
Dustin Jacoby defeats Kennedy Nzechukwu Result:
This one should be pretty fun. The reason that I side with Jacoby here is that I think his volume and technical kickboxing are the most reliable attributes on either side. The downside with Jacoby is that his fights always feel pretty close because he doesn't have a lot else in his bag of tricks. His power is average to a little bit above average for the division. He doesn't wrestle. It's just a lot harder to win striking matches with volume at the heavier divisions. Jacoby has had his struggles with grapplers in the past and we've seen Kennedy start to go to his more and more. I don't foresee a ton of success for him here though. He might be able to get a takedown or two, but I would be pretty surprised if he were able to hold Jacoby down for extended minutes. Standing, Kennedy has some volume and power of his own, but the defense is what I think makes the difference. Kennedy really leaves himself open to be hit and Jacoby is more than powerful enough to knock him out. I think this is largely a competitive fight, but I think Jacoby is going to land the cleaner and more impact strikes.
Bets to consider: Jacoby ML +134
I did pick Jacoby to win, but it's really only a lean in his direction. I think this fight should probably be around -110 a side. Kennedy has the potential to grapple while Jacoby has the better cardio and output. I just think Kennedy being out at -160 is a bit wide. If you want to favor him, then that's fine, but that seems way too far. Kennedy top timing Jacoby really doesn't seem to be in the cards and unless he knocks him out, I really don't see how Kennedy is covering that price tag.
Tatiana Suarez defeats Jessica Andrade Result:
I think this fight is a pretty straight forward one. If I am to assume Suarez is relatively healthy, then I think her path is pretty clear. She is going to be able to take Andrade down and she'll be fine from there. Andrade isn't great off of her back and she often gives her back in order to stand up. Her defensive wrestling is hit or miss and usually relies more on strength than technique. That just isn't going to work against Suarez. If Andrade finds a way to keep it standing then she'll have a chance and her power is still there. However, a healthy Suarez probably finishes this fight.
Bets to consider: Suarez by submission +125
This is the way I would try to go with this one. Andrade is very likely to get taken down and when she does, she'll give her back. That is going to put Suarez in a prime spot for a submission. Otherwise, I would say a knockout is more likely, but I think the submission is probably the route. It's not a great number though so I don't mind passing.
Cory Sandhagen defeats Rob Font Result:
I'm kind of torn on what I want to think of this fight. I do think Sandhagen is the side. The problem for Font is that his whole game is based on things that Cory does better than him. While I do think things are going to be competitive, it just feels like Sandhagen sort of has all of the advantages, even though they're all by very small amounts. Font's best quality is his volume striking, but Sandhagen throws more volume, but with better power and more danger. Sandhagen probably has the better cardio and I think he's more durable. We've seen Sandhagen mixing in takedowns more and more often over his last few fights and we've seen Font have his struggles there at times. While the fight probably seems relatively competitive, I think Sandhagen probably looks just a small step ahead most of the fight.
Bets to consider: Sandhagen 4, 5, decision +115
This is pretty much my go to bet with Sandhagen and I'll probably go to it again here. He has burned me before with finishes, but Font is pretty durable in his own right. He doesn't get knocked out and while I do think Cory can finish him, I don't think it would be early. The number on the money line seems a bit wide, so I don't really hate anyone taking the shot on Font, but this is the way to play Cory in my opinion.
That's it for me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Ode Osbourne ML .5 units at +164 to win .82 units
Sean Woodson ML 1.5 units at -184 to win .82 units
Cody Durden ML .5 units at +164 to win .82 units
Phillips/Barcelos U2.5 rounds .5 units at +138 to win .69 units
Ignacio Bahamondes ITD .5 units at +175 to win .88 units
Gavin Tucker ML 1 unit at +146 to win 1.46 units
Dustin Jacoby ML .5 units at +134 to win .67 units
Cory Sandhagen 4, 5, decision 1 unit at +115 to win 1.15 units
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