Alright, we finally made it to Saturday. Everyone enjoy the card and hopefully you're on the right side of things if you're someone who likes to bet on fights. To be clear, I'm not a betting expert and this isn't really a betting guide, but if you want to use it as such, I can't really stop you. I'll just be picking an outright winner for every fight and for some of the more important ones, I may give a sentence or two about it. I will be keeping track of my overall record for each event until the end of the year and I will update this post with results once it goes official. I probably won't give an explanation for every fight, but maybe I will, it just depends what I have to say I guess. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's get started.
Tagir Ulanbekov defeats Allan Nascimento Result: Ulanbekov by decision (1-0)
I think Ulanbekov is just a better fighter here to keep it simple. Nascimento seems very reliant on submissions to come away victorious, which is much easier to do in lower level organizations than it is to do in the UFC. I think Ulanbekov is the better all around fighter with more ways to win.
Damir Ismagulov defeats Magomed Mustafaev Result: Fight off due to Ismagulov missing weight
I like Ismagulov here. He averages more significant strikes landed than Mustafaev, while averaging less significant strikes absorbed. Mustafaev is much more reliant on the takedown and he's pretty good at it, getting over 3 per 15 minutes. However, Ismagulov has 100% takedown defense, so I think it's his fight to lose.
Andre Petroski defeats Hu Yaozong Result: Petroski by submission (2-0)
Yaozong is 0-2 in the UFC so far and I don't think the 0 changes here. He does a decent job of landing strikes averaging over 4 a minute, but he absorbs over 5 a minute. I don't think that's a recipe for success against Petroski, who we saw on the Ultimate Fighter and won his UFC debut a couple of months ago.
Lerone Murphy defeats Makwan Amirkhani Result: Murphy by KO (3-0)
Murphy has a significant advantage in the striking and he should be able to take advantage of that here. Amirkhani absorbs more strikes on average than he lands and is very reliant on the takedown. He averages over 3 per 15 minutes, but lands them at only a 40% rate. Murphy doesn't have great takedown defense at 41%, but I think it's enough that with his striking advantage he should come out on top.
Shamil Gamzatov defeats Michar Oleksiejczuk Result: Oleksijcuzk by TKO (3-1)
This fight is likely going to play out entirely on the feet. They both land over 4 strikes per minute, but Gamzatov absorbs 1.1 less strikes per minute. Oleksiejczuk has 4 career losses and 3 of them are by submission. Gamzatov does have a few submissions from very early on in his career, so that's a possibility if someone gets dropped and the fight ends up on the ground that way, but don't expect a traditional takedown attempt as both average less than 1 per 15 minutes.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos defeats Benoit St Denis Result: dos Santos by decision (4-1)
If I'm being honest, I had a hard time finding legitimate stats on St Denis, so keep that in mind here. I can see on his record he has a lot of submission victories with an 8-0 record. I have to go with Zaleski dos Santos as he has pretty solid take down defense and has wins over some legitimate high level competition such as Sean Strickland, Max Griffin, and Omari Akhmedov. I'll take his experience in this one.
Albert Duraev defeats Roman Kopylov Result: Duraev by decision (5-1)
We just saw Duraev and his impressive wrestling on the contender series. He averages over 4 takedowns and over 4 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Kopylov's only loss has come via submission. We haven't seen a whole lot of Duraev's striking but Kopylov has absorbed more strikes than he's landed on average, so I'll go with Duraev.
Ricardo Ramos defeats Zubaira Tukhugov Result: Tukhugov by decision (5-2)
To me, this fight is almost even. Ramos has a little higher strikes per minute, but he also absorbs a little more per minute. Ramos lands about 3 takedowns per 15 minutes but Tukhugov has 100% takedown defense. He lands about 2.5 of his own takedowns per 15 but Ramos defends at 73%. I think the deciding factor may be cardio. We saw Tukhugov gas out badly in his last fight and I'll use that as the reason to lean Ramos.
Amanda Ribas defeats Virna Jandiroba Result: Ribas by decision (6-2)
I think Ribas is a legitimate prospect and I think she bounces back from a loss in her last fight. She averages over 4 strikes a minute while absorbing under 2 per minute. She has a clear advantage in the striking and will take advantage. The grappling stats are pretty even, but I think Jandiroba may have a slight advantage. However, Ribas has an 85% takedown defense and should be able to keep it standing and get the win. Ribas is no slouch on the ground if it goes there, but the standup is the path of least resistance in this fight.
Magomed Ankalaev defeats Volkan Oezdemir Result: Ankalaev by decision (7-2)
This should be a fun one. We should see an almost entirely stand up fight here. Ankalaev does average 1.18 takedowns per 15, but I wouldn't be anticipating much grappling. Oezdemir has a higher work rate, 5.03 strikes per minute to Ankalaev's 3.41 per minute. However, he also absorbs way more damage at 4.24 strikes absorbed and Ankalaev's is a much more tolerable 1.78. I think this will be the key in Ankalaev getting the win. However, just a note, Oezdemir has 5 career losses and 4 of them have come to Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith, Dominick Reyes, and Jiri Prochazka, all extremely high level competitors. Not sure what to make of that, but he only loses to the best in the world, so I wouldn't be too surprised if he were able to pull this one out. Ankalaev's only loss came in a crazy last second submission to Paul Craig, so I think he can get it done here.
Khamzat Chimaev defeats Li Jingliang Result: Chimaev by submission (8-2)
I did a whole preview on this one so I'll keep it short. Jingliang has good striking at over 4 a minute and solid defense at just over 3.6 strikes absorbed per minute paired with decent takedown defense at 59%. However, I just believe Chimaev's takedowns are different and relentless. He'll get one eventually and I think he'll be able to do enough for the victory.
Alexander Volkov defeats Marcin Tybura Result: Volkov by decision (9-2)
The story of Volkov's career is that he wins the fights he's supposed to win and loses the fight's he's supposed to lose and he's favored here so... Volkov has the height and reach as he always does and he's the better striker, so like usual, keeping this standing is his path to victory. Tybura isn't a horrible striker by any means, but I think in this fight he really needs to try to get the fight to the ground. He'll only have a 2 inch reach disadvantage, but the 4 inch height disadvantage means he'll also have the leg reach disadvantage. Tybura averages 1.67 takedowns per 15, but he's no Curtis Blaydes and I think Volkov has improved takedown defense since that fight anyways. Standing with Volkov isn't generally a good idea unless you're a striker of similar caliber and Tybura is not.
Islam Makhachev defeats Dan Hooker Result: Makhachev by submission (10-2)
I have to be honest here, I want to pick Hooker really bad. I'll gladly take a loss on my resume with this one. We know Hooker has the striking advantage and a 5 inch reach advantage, but I think Islam will use the blueprint that Michael Chandler set forth. The relentless takedown attempts will eventually get the best of Hooker and the short notice won't help matters for him. I will be placing a small bet on Hooker as he's a heavy, heavy underdog and I truly believe he can win this fight, but I have to use my head over my heart for this one even though I think Hooker has a way better chance than anyone is giving him credit for.
Cory Sandhagen defeats Petr Yan Result: Yan by decision (10-3)
I kind of gave this one away in my preview, but I can't help it. I love Cory Sandhagen. I sort of downplayed Yan's wrestling in my preview, but he does average over 2 takedowns per 15, but I just don't see that being a big part of this fight. Sandhagen has pretty solid takedown defense anyways and we saw that against Dillashaw. Sandhagen lands strikes a little bit of a higher rate, but he also absorbs strikes at a slightly higher rate, so I think it will be pretty even most of the way. I'll take Sandhagen's more dynamic style and variety of strikes to edge out a victory and become interim bantamweight champion.
Jan Blachowicz defeats Glover Teixeira Result: Teixeira by submission (10-4)
The stats on this one are actually pretty even. Jan lands 3.59 strikes per minute and Glover lands 3.75 strikes per minute. Glover does absorb more at 3.84 per minute, while Jan is only absorbing 2.79 per minute. Glover gets 2.04 takedowns per 15 and averages 1 submission per 15, but Jan does post a pretty solid 65% takedown defense, while landing 1.18 takedowns per 15 himself. I think the difference here is the patented "Legendary Polish Power" for Jan. We've seen Glover get dropped more than a couple of times in his recent fights and with the power of Jan, I think he'll be able to end it and I'll definitely be a little sad to see Glover lose.
Well, that's it guys. That took a lot longer than I thought and I ended up giving a short explanation for each, which wasn't the original plan. I had to find a reason for myself to make the pick because it's not like I know the stats for every fighter on the roster, especially someone in their debut or all of the guys on the early prelims. I figured once I found the reason myself, I would share it with you guys so you can see I'm not just randomly guessing or just blindly following the Vegas odds. Feel free to share your picks in the comments and maybe if this gets big enough, we can start a contest or something. You can also feel free to make fun of me in the comments for anything I predict incorrectly, so there's that too. Let me know if you guys like this format or what I should do differently. Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.
UPDATE: Final record 10-4 for the event and 10-4 for the year.
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