The UFC 268 co-main event pitted incumbent women's strawweight champion "Thug" Rose Namajunas against former champion "Magnum" Zhang Weili in an immediate rematch of their fight at UFC 261 this past April. The lead up to that fight was preparing everyone for a 5 round battle that would be determined by a razor thin decision. Despite all of that, Weili entered that fight as a roughly 2 to 1 favorite. All of that went out the window 1:18 into the fight when Rose landed a left high kick and followed up with a few hammer fists on the ground to capture the title for the second time in her career. The finish coming so early was shocking enough that the UFC booked the immediate rematch, which we witnessed this past weekend. Ultimately, we got the fight that everyone expected the first time around, which ended with a split decision victory in favor of Rose Namajunas. Like most people, I am a fan of Rose, so of course I was happy to see her get the nod, but I honestly didn't know if she won the fight. I really still don't know if she should have. I haven't rewatched the fight since it happened, but I remember think that Weili got the first round. I thought Rose was much better in the second, but got hurt badly and was on wobbly legs late in the 2nd. The 3rd round was the closest and could have gone either way, but I still leaned towards Weili. The 3rd round is what I would really watch closely if/when I go back to this fight because that's really the deciding factor as I thought Rose definitely won both 4 and 5. Obviously, I'm not a professional judge, but I know I wasn't alone in this thinking, but I really didn't see too many people talking about it after the fight. I assume this is because Rose is so popular amongst fans, that no one really cared because everyone was happy that she won. By no means do I see this as a robbery or travesty because round 3 was so close and Rose was slightly ahead in round 2 for so long before that one big right hand, that I could see judges giving her one or both of those rounds, but in real time, I just didn't come to that conclusion. With that said, where do these two go next in their respective careers?
I'm going to start with Zhang Weili in this one. Zhang is still one of the best women's strawweights in the world, so it's not like she needs to really drop down the rankings and start from scratch. The problem with the immediate rematch is that now, she's kind of stuck. It's going to have to be a few defenses for Rose and a few wins for Weili before they even consider a trilogy since Rose already has the 2-0 lead. Former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk is in a similar spot as to where she wants a title shot, but she's already lost to Rose twice, so booking a trilogy when the first two have gone the same way isn't really a great selling point for a fight unless it becomes too obvious that they need to fight again or there was some controversy in one of the fights, both of which apply to the likely Holloway vs Volkanovski 3 that we'll be seeing sometime in the future, as well as a potential Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko trilogy. Despite the general consensus that Weili is the clear second to Rose, I think she does have a couple of options for her future. The most obvious one is the rematch with Jedrzejczyk. Their first matchup is likely the best fight in the history of women's MMA, so selling a rematch would be no issue. On top of making sense for Zhang to get her right back into a huge fight, this is one of the only matchups that makes sense for Joanna. However, it's not really clear how negotiations are going between Joanna and the UFC and what timeline she wants to fight on. If not Joanna, up and coming contender Marina Rodriguez would make sense as a match up. Rodriguez is coming off of the biggest win of her career against Mackenzie Dern and the UFC would likely want her to have a really well known name on her resume before putting her in a title fight. While dangerous, a win here for Zhang would continue to prove that she is at the very top of the division and eventually would force the UFC's hand in giving her the trilogy. I know someone is going to say Carla Esparza, but I just don't really think that makes any sense because if Weili is booked against Esparza, who is Rose supposed to fight? I know Rose isn't super active, but assuming they book Weili vs Esparza in 3-4 months, it's going to be at least 6 months if not closer to a year layoff for Rose to fight the winner. I do think going up a weight class and challenging Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight title is a legitimate option. I don't think Weili would be at a strength disadvantage up a weight class and at this point, I think Weili is also the most interesting fight for Valentina if the UFC doesn't want to make the trilogy fight with Amanda Nunes, which it really seems like they don't. I'm not even sure which of these I would prefer to see if I'm being honest. The fight against Rodriguez would have the least amount of hype around it, but I still think it would be a great fight and I would love to see how those two look against each other. If the UFC isn't willing to make the Shevchenko/Nunes trilogy, then I think I like Weili vs Shevchenko the most and would do Joanna vs Rodriguez.
When it comes to Rose, I really, really, don't understand why the UFC is so against making Rose's next defense against Carla Esparza. Dana White has talked about it multiple times and he's making it seem like Rose vs Carla would be the equivalent of booking Kamaru Usman's next defense against Robbie Lawler, of course with all due respect to Robbie. First of all, Carla has more than earned the shot at this point. She's won 5 in a row against Virna Jandiroba, Alexa Grasso, Michelle Waterson, Marina Rodriguez, and Yan Xiaonan, all pretty good fighters and all ranked. Second, it's a great story with Rose finally getting the opportunity to avenge her loss to Carla in the inaugural strawweight title fight on the ultimate fighter all those years ago. Third, and maybe most importantly, who else is there? Rose is already 2-0 against Weili and Joanna, so they're out and the best option left is Marina Rodriguez. I like Rodriguez a lot and I honestly think she would have a better chance to beat Rose than Carla, but how is it justifiable to give her the title shot here? I know MMA doesn't have a formula and the UFC will basically do whatever they want, but what incentive do they have to break the precedent in this case? It's not like Rodriguez is some star that would do big business like when they gave Conor the Khabib fight even though he hadn't fought in a couple of years. So if there's no financial incentive, then it has to be based completely on sport right? I know I've criticized people like Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns in the past for sitting on their spot in the past and just waiting out for the title fight, but at least for me, I felt like them sitting was a problem because there was other legitimate options. Depending on the exact timing of the fight, Carla will have likely had a 10 or 11 month layoff, where Colby had a 9 month layoff before he fought Woodley and then a 14 month layoff before the second Usman fight. That's just not the same to me, but maybe I'm just off base. If you want to hold waiting on her spot against Carla, then that's fine because I do it all the time, but I just don't think their recent resume's make it possible to have Rodriguez skip the line. Carla has 5 wins in a row and Rodriguez only has 3, with Rodriguez's last loss coming directly to Carla Esparza. I don't know man, it just seems so obvious to me. I know Carla Esparza isn't like the big, sexy fight that really gets a lot of hype behind it because Rose is probably a pretty solid favorite, but is the Rodriguez fight really any different?
I am completely out of my mind here or does this just make too much sense? What am I missing? What about Weili? Who would you like to see her fight next? What did you think of the fight? Did you score it for Rose or Weili? Let me know in the comments and make some suggestions on topics you would like to see me cover or discuss. I have an Usman/Covington fallout post coming as well as the preview for Holloway and Yair Rodriguez, so be on the look out for those.
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