In the midst of my weeklong absence due to midterms, there was a huge announcement. I told myself I wasn't going write anything about it until closer to the actual date, but I just can't help myself. This fight is too much fun and too good not to talk about. We've had a "Judy Bagwell on a forklift match", so I don't feel bad at all calling this the "three piece and a soda match". At this point, we've all seen the video and all heard the phrase "three piece and a soda" ad nauseum, but we are all so ready to see this fight. Both of these guys have wanted to fight each other for a long time and I'm honestly surprised it's taken this long to get it. I'm not going to analyze this fight technically, which I don't do anyways, but I'm just going to sort of outline it and maybe inject my opinion on certain things when I feel necessary.
We'll start with Jorge Masvidal. Gamebread is the biggest star in terms of fanbase and gaining the attention of casual fans that the UFC has regularly competing at this time. He's coming off two consecutive losses to UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, the last of which came via devestating knockout. Prior to those losses, Masvidal had won three fights in a row that saw him rise in both the rankings and in popularity. His performance of the night winning knockout of Darren Till broke a previous losing streak in a big way. He took that momentum into the Ben Askren fight, which, I think we all know how that one turned out. If you're new to the sport, Masvidal knocked out Askren in 5 seconds with a flying knee in what Jon Anik described as "one of the greatest knockouts you'll ever see" and I don't think I could say it any better even if I tried. He parlayed those wins into a huge fight against Nate Diaz for the BMF title, which he also won. Given his rise to fame, Masvidal will only be fighting in huge fights for as long he continues to be active, similar to what Nate Diaz has done with his career. While he has lost both of his title shots to Usman and won't be fighting for a title again until Usman loses or vacates his title for whatever reason, his level of competition won't likely dip any time soon. This brings us to Leon.
Leon Edwards is much trending in the opposite direction of Masvidal recently. It is well documented by this point that Leon has won 9 fights in a row (with the no contest with Belal Muhammad mixed in) and he's probably done enough for a title shot a couple of fights ago. He hasn't lost since 2015 and that came against Kamaru Usman before he became champion. Leon has been hurt by some circumstances and a little bit of his own doing. As for what is in his control, Leon doesn't do a lot of promoting and talking outside of the cage, which, right or wrong, is a big part of how you elevate your career in this sport. He doesn't do the trash talk that was made really famous by McGregor and has been attempted by many since. What hurts him even more is that he's in a division with Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal who are both very vocal in self promotion and, especially in Masvidal's case, two of the more popular and polarizing fighters on the entire roster. Leon's silence combined with the public trash talk from others at the top of his division created the perfect storm for him to potentially be lost in the shuffle. If that wasn't enough, Leon has also been on the wrong side of a few things out of his control. Due to the pandemic, all of sports (and most of the world) were put on hold and Leon ended up having an extended layoff. Even when the UFC came back, travel restrictions didn't help and then he kept having his fights fall apart. He was basically forced to take the fight against Khamzat Chimaev and Chimaev ended up contracting COVID-19, which it seems he has finally come all the way back from. Leon then had the no contest against Belal Muhammad after an accidental (and pretty gnarly looking) eyepoke rendered Belal unable to continue. Leon dominated Nate Diaz for 24 minutes, but unfortunately for him, Diaz landed a straight left hand in the final minute of the fight that had Leon on wobbly legs. Instead of his domination being the story, that one punch from Diaz ended up being the talking point of the fight, which took the shine away from Leon despite a fantastic performance.
That largely brings us to where we are today. If Leon beats Masvidal in December, I don't think he can be denied a title shot any longer. That is unless Colby Covington upsets Kamaru Usman in a few weeks, in which case, I think they probably give Usman the immediate rematch. If Masvidal wins, there's a lot more questions than answers at this point. I'm not sure how Masvidal gets back into a title fight without Usman losing the belt. Regardless of what happens, we have a really fun fight between two guys who have a history and don't like each other. This was going to be great even without the potential title implications, but that only adds to the drama. If you're looking for an early prediction, which I'm going to start doing in posts I think, I would have to think about it. Don't hold me to this as I definitely reserve the right to change my mind as the fight gets closer and I have more time to think about it. At a quick glance, it seems to me that Leon has more ways to win as I think he is the more balanced fighter with equal skills on the feet and on the ground. Masvidal has a slightly more narrow path to victory as he is much more reliant on a stand up fight. However, Masvidal is much more capable of finishing the fight and if Diaz can hurt Leon, Masvidal definitely can as well. If Masvidal were to get Leon on the situation Diaz had him in, I think I can safely say there would be less taunting and Leon would really have to work to survive the onslaught. It will be interesting to see how Masvidal has recovered from the Usman fight as that was as bad a knockout as we have seen all year and Masvidal has never been accused of having a weak chin. Honestly, when I started typing this section, I had it in my end that I was leaning towards Leon, but I think I talked myself into Masvidal a little bit. I'm torn and I really like both of these fighters, so it is hard for me to pick against one of them.
I didn't plan on this section of the post being this long but my brain is working so I'm just going to roll with it. The thing with Leon, as great as he is, he's not really a finisher. His best skill is that he's so well rounded and he can mix it up and keep his opponent off balance. By definition then, Leon has to be better than his opponent for at least 2 of the 3 (or 3 of 5) rounds. The more I think about it, the more I think that Leon needs to get this fight to the ground. We saw Leon get badly hurt and almost finished by Nate Diaz, who isn't known for being especially slick or powerful with his hands. If Nate can damage him with a single shot, then Masvidal most definitely can. I think most people believe Masvidal has the striking advantage and if this fight spends most of the 15 minutes on the feet, I have to believe Masvidal will find Leon's chin at least once. I think I am officially leaning towards Masvidal at this time, but that can change. Maybe Leon will be able to take all Jorge's best shots and overwhelm him with volume and then mix in his wrestling and take down game. That wouldn't surprise me in the least. I'll be happy either way. This fight is going to be so much fun and, personally, I can't wait for it.
What do you guys think? Who's your pick right now and why? who do you want to win? is that different than who you think will win? Let me know in the comments and thanks for reading.
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