Middleweight is in an interesting spot going forward. They have a dominant champion much like welterweight that we talked about yesterday, this time in the form of Israel Adesanya. They also have a really high level number one contender and one of my 5 favorite fighters in the sport in Robert Whittaker. Unlike welterweight, their depth of contenders is rather thin and the division as a whole has struggled to have anyone separate themselves from the pack beyond those two. It's really a shame because Israel Adesanya is as big of a star as anyone the UFC has, but the future of his reign beyond Whittaker just seems so bleak. I mean no disrespect to Blonde Brunson and Jared Cannonier and others, but they just don't feel like they're really on the same level as Izzy. We'll just get into the breakdown now.
Champion - Israel Adesanya
Israel Adesanya is generally considered the second best pound for pound male fighter in the UFC. What makes him so interesting for me is that he does it as more of a specialist. I watch Kamaru Usman and I am wowed by his power and strength that he combines with high level technique in both striking and wrestling. When I watch Izzy, I am fascinated. I don't claim to be a technique expert by any means, but when I watch most people strike, I have a general idea of what's happening and what they're trying to do. When I watch Adesanya, I just sit and watch in a way that is hard to articulate. He is so advanced that at times it seems like he's feinting attacks that his opponents don't even fully comprehend. Paulo Costa was known as a tank of a human who just came forward and tried to put his opponents to sleep. Israel Adesanya rendered him virtually unable to throw a strike. I don't fully know how to explain him in just words. He is the highest level striker in the UFC by a large margin right now. His grappling has also improved a great deal. I don't expect to see him submitting anyone from his back or anything like that, but his takedown defense and his ability to get up off the bottom have improved significantly and that allows him to keep the fight standing for as much of the fight as possible, which will always favor him. In addition to all of his skills in the cage, his personality outside of the cage elevates him even higher. Also, just as an aside, I love his YouTube channel, the best of any active fighter in my opinion. For anyone to beat Izzy at 185 lbs (without the size advantage that Jan Blachowicz had when Izzy tried to go up), it's going to take an incredible effort and is almost a requirement to take him down and control him.
Next Challenger - Robert Whittaker
I think people need to show Robert Whittaker some more respect. I think he is way better than anyone gives him credit for. He isn't very loud and doesn't call his shots because it just isn't his personality to do so. In a sport like cage fighting where there is a certain level of craziness required to even step in the octagon, Robert Whittaker may be the most normal person in the sport and I think that's a great selling point. You guys probably know by now that I watch and like Chael Sonnen's YouTube videos, but I think he completely misses the point on Whittaker. He always says Whittaker doesn't want the Izzy rematch, which is quite honestly a stupid thing to say. To act like someone doesn't want a title shot is being intentionally dense. I think I'm going to make that a full post after this series is over, so I won't get too much into it now. Whittaker is a top 15 pound for pound fighter in my estimation and it seems like people just lump him in with the masses at middleweight. Whittaker is generally known for his striking and movement. Whittaker is a pretty muscular guy for the class, but his agility is his biggest advantage. He moves in and out in a way that is tough for his opponents to solve. He doesn't have crazy power, but he's so quick and crisp with his combinations that he usually gets the better of his opponents in the exchanges. His chin isn't Marvin Vettori level strong, but it's more than sufficient. Whittaker showed a new wrinkle to his game when he was able to repeatedly takedown and control Kelvin Gastelum. The fact that it was Gastelum is meaningful to me because his wrestling is more than legitimate and I think this is a huge factor in the Izzy rematch. If Whittaker can take Adesanya down and control him, that completely changes the game. Whittaker isn't as good of a striker as Izzy, but he's still really good. If he can threaten the takedown and actually get some, that allows him to keep Izzy of balance and gives him a better chance of hurting him with strikes. If Whittaker can't beat Izzy, I'm not sure the man who can is even in the rankings right now. It won't be easy, but I think he has the skills to at least give him the hardest test. People also forget that Whittaker was coming off of a pretty serious surgery in the first Izzy fight, so keep that in mind as well.
Contenders - Jared Cannonier, Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, and Sean Strickland
Now I just said how there's no contenders beyond Whittaker and I got and list 4 guys, but there's sort of 2 fights that are setting up Izzy's next opponent if he can defeat Whittaker and these are the 4 participants. Cannonier will fight Brunson in what is set up to be the number one contender fight. Cannonier is a long and powerful striker who has risen to the top of the division after his win over Kelvin Gastelum. Cannonier's game is largely based on his power and his ability to find the finish with his hands. I was impressed with his ability to limit Gastelum's wrestling and he'll definitely need that to beat Brunson. If he's able to win, I don't think he has a great style to overcome Izzy, but Cannonier does have a length that Costa didn't really bring and it still only takes one shot from someone that powerful. Derek Brunson has become the ultimate underdog in recent years. He's been an underdog for quite a few fights in a row now and has found a way to come out on top. It hasn't always been pretty, but wins are wins when you're this high in the rankings. His win over Darren Till was especially impressive as he was hurt on the feet and still found a way to get the takedown he needed to get out of trouble. His wrestling heavy style is the type of style that would combat Izzy's striking very well, but Brunson will have to get there. His chin has shown some weak spots recently and both Cannonier and Izzy will test it, but I've seen Brunson overcome too much to start doubting him now. Jack Hermansson is an interesting case. He's an extremely unique fighter who I enjoy watching quite a bit. He has great submissions that make him a threat to finish a fight at any time. His striking isn't the most refined, but he has good power and he's as tough as they come. He got rocked by Marvin Vettori early in their fight and Hermansson was somehow able to survive even though he was clearly badly hurt and never fully recovered. His style makes him an interesting potential partner for Izzy because his submission game is for real. He may not even need a takedown as he can grab a leg lock from a clinch situation and get the tap. He's on a bit of slide, so he needs to turn that around, but if he can put together a win streak, he could find himself in a title fight rather quickly. Sean Strickland is a unique human being to say the least. Bizarre and borderline offensive comments aside, Strickland is a pretty good fighter who's given guys a lot of problems since he returned from his injuries. I haven't quite figured out what Strickland does that gives people so many issues because so many of his opponents don't seem to get off as many strikes as you would think. Strickland is almost exclusively a boxer. He doesn't throw many kicks and he doesn't look for too many takedowns. His power isn't anything out of the ordinary, but his volume striking and overall willingness to exchange is what allows him to overwhelm his opponents and just pull away in the striking numbers. His chin also holds up to whatever his opponent does throw back at him. His style isn't overly complicated, but it's been effective for him. I'm interested to see how he deals with Hermansson's grappling, but if he can keep it on the feet, I wouldn't be surprised if he finds himself one step closer to a title shot.
Up and Comers - Brad Tavares, Nassourdine Imavov, and Andre Muniz
This one was a little hard to put together. Middleweight doesn't have a ton of contenders and it doesn't have many on the immediate horizon either. I admit Brad Tavares isn't a typical up and comer, but maybe he's more of a late bloomer. He made is UFC debut 10 years ago and he's 34 years old, but I think we may be seeing the best version of Tavares we've ever seen. He didn't fight between 2019 until 2021 and he got 2 wins last year. Tavares is a power striker who has good takedown defense. He doesn't have a great skill set to match up with Izzy, but that doesn't mean he can't earn his shot. I think this could be a later career surge for Tavares and I would hate to see him not get his chance to really push for a title if this is it for him. Imavov is much the opposite. He's young and he's still developing his skills. He's 3-1 in the UFC and already is fighting and beating the likes of Edmen Shahbazyan. He's shown the ability get both knockouts and submissions and is already fighting high level competition early in his career. He has all the skills and he's only getting better, I just hope they don't rush him and potentially stunt his growth. Andre Muniz sort of came out of nowhere for me. I wasn't super familiar with him until he fought Jacare Souza and man did he impress there. He's since picked up another submission win and he's really dangerous on the ground. It makes it particularly interesting given how grappling is the path to defeat Adesanya. Muniz will likely need to round out his game some and continue to improve in the striking department, but his submissions are as legitimate as anyone's in the sport outside of Charles Oliveira. I'm really intrigued to see what his next fight is and where he can end up in the rankings by the end of the year.
Wild Cards - Marvin Vettori, Paulo Costa, Darren Till, Uriah Hall, and Kelvin Gastelum
Vettori is such a weird case. He's earned his way to the top of the division the hard way. He's extremely tough and he's pretty big for the division. He has good power in his hands even though it's not the cleanest striking and his strength allows him to maintain good top control after he lands some takedowns. He bounced back from his second loss to Izzy by defeating Paulo Costa. After that win, Marvin is firmly in the top 5, but I don't think there's a chance he gets a third fight with Adesanya anytime in the next few years unless he does something crazy. The second fight made it clear to me that Izzy is just on a different level than Marvin and I'm not sure how he closes that gap. There's not a ton of people left for Marvin to fight because he's won so much recently, but I honestly don't know if there's a path back to Adesanya and if there is, I don't know what it is. Paulo Costa is also in a strange spot. He was undefeated and earned a title shot. He was frozen by Izzy until he was knocked out and then he came back and lost a striking battle to Marvin Vettori after changing the weight class twice. It seems like Dana White wants Costa to move up, which I think is a great idea for him, but his team comes out and says he's still at middleweight. Before we decide what Costa needs to do, he has to figure out what division he's fighting in. Darren Till is in a rough patch. He needs to get back in the win column and after that's the case, he may not be more than one or two additional wins away from a title shot. He's a fan favorite and someone Izzy has come out and said that he wants to fight. Before any of this, Till needs to get and stay healthy. He's had so many problems with injuries and even when he does get in the octagon he's banged up. A healthy Darren Till is a great fighter, but we just haven't seen that version of him in awhile. Of course he can stand to improve his wrestling, but I think he just needs to get back to full health and he'll be fine. I include Uriah Hall here even though I probably shouldn't. Hall is so naturally gifted that even as he's gotten up there in age, if he ever was able to put it together, he may be unstoppable. The problem is, at this point, I think we're sort of past the point where anyone even cares to ask what if when it comes to Uriah anymore. I just find it sad that someone with so much natural talent has somehow not found the right mix of ingredients to make a real run. His loss to Sean Strickland was a really strange performance on top of it. That was stylistically the matchup Hall should've wanted. Someone who was going to stand with him and not threaten a takedown and Hall couldn't even pull the trigger. I still hope for his sake that he's able to make one good run just for his peace of mind. The final one here for me is Kelvin Gastelum. I don't think it's likely he ever gets back to a title shot as he's fallen on hard times recently. He's struggled against some really high level opponents and has stepped in on short notice multiple times. I include him here because he gave Izzy such a difficult fight that if Gastelum were ever able to get hot and even get close again, the UFC may jump to make that fight. His style is maybe the best suited to defeat Izzy. Gastelum is as tough as anyone in combat sports and is virtually impossible to knockout. He's also incredibly strong and has high level wrestling. I think that even though he's down on his luck, he could still give Izzy a tough fight right now just because of the matchup issues.
Prospects - Edmen Shahbazyan, Bruno Silva, Driscus Du Plessis, and Alex Pereira
First, some honorable mentions because this section could've been really long: Chris Curtis, Brendan Allen, Roman Dolidze, Gregory Rodrigues, and Andre Petroski. Now, I know the hype around Shahbazyan has kind of died down a little bit, but he's still a name to pay attention to. He's on an ugly slide right now and he has a clear weakness on the ground. He's still only 24 years and has so much time before he can even enter his prime. His striking is still pretty good and he's so talented at such a young age. He could take 2 years off to just improve and come back and he would still be only 26. He has so much time in skill that I'm not ready to give up on him in the slightest. He needs a step back and needs to add skills and dimensions to his game, but I think there is still a future contender in there somewhere. Bruno Silva has been is only 3-0 in the UFC, but he's been white hot. He's been absolutely battering his opponents and has knocked all 3 of them out. His striking and power is no joke and I expect he gets a notable opponent next time because he may be ready to start a push towards the rankings now. A lot of what I just said about Silva can be said about Du Plessis. He's a dangerous fighter in the striking and has some submissions on his record as well. He's only 2-0 in the UFC and he needs a step up in competition, but I think he could rise through this division pretty quickly and push for a spot in the rankings very soon. Alex Pereira is the last name I chose to actually discuss and not include as an honorable mention. Pereira is a former high level kick boxer and as we saw in his one and only UFC fight, his striking is next level. He obviously needs to work extremely hard on the grappling side in order to rise to the level of entering the rankings and especially finding a path to the title, but the talent is clearly there. His calling card is being the guy who knocked out Izzy during his own kickboxing career. Obviously, if he can reach those heights the UFC would not hesitate to make that fight for one second and I'm sure Izzy wants to get that one back. I personally try to imagine Izzy taking him down and submitting him just to troll him, but I doubt we'll see that. I hope Pereira can make those improvements because this potential title fight actually really excites me for the bad blood and story line that goes with it.
That's all I have for middleweight. This one may be a little underwhelming for you guys. There's so many guys in this division who I just don't know what to say about. Other than Whittaker, it really feels like the division is sort of sitting around and waiting for some young guys to get there with some filler matchups to kill time in between. I didn't mention Khamzat Chimaev, but his weight cutting situation could lead to him coming up which would be great for middleweight. They've denied they would do it, but could enough money entice Kamaru Usman to come up and try to become double champ? That would be interesting. After Whittaker and maybe a trilogy of Whittaker can get a win, I just don't feel excited about any potential title challengers. I have hopes for Darren Till, but he has to get his health in order first. What do you guys think? Can Robert Whittaker get the jump on Izzy? Can Sean Strickland or Derek Brunson earn their way into the next shot? Where do Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa go from here? Can Andre Muniz use his grappling and get all the way to the top? How far can Alex Pereira and Driscus Du Plessis get into the rankings this year? Will we see Edmen Shahbazyan bounce back? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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