We've gotten off to a bit of a slow start in this in 2022, but we improved from the first card to the second, so hopefully that trend continues. a 7-4 night at UFC 270 is a pretty solid performance, but we're not here to take part, we're here to take over. This card is finally one that has some degree of intrigue from the beginning until the end, at least for me. I said yesterday that the UFC has killed it's momentum with the scheduling and I still believe that. We're getting into a rhythm now with consistent cards without any weekends off and it feels good to be back for good. There's a lot of fights this weekend and I'm genuinely excited for it. Let's get into the picks. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Denys Bondar defeats Malcolm Gordon Result: Gordon via sub (0-1)
Bondar will be making his UFC debut, so we've never seen him against this level of competition. Most of his wins come via finish though and when Gordon loses, it comes via finish. Gordon doesn't throw with volume on the feet, only hits takedowns at an 18% rate, and has a 0% takedown defense. His chin didn't hold up against Sumudaerji and lost by submission before that. Bondar gets finishes by strikes and submissions, so I'll go with him in this one.
Phil Rowe defeats Jason Witt Result: Rowe by KO (1-1)
This is such a weird fight. Rowe is the striker and Witt is the grappler and we've seen that playout a million times over. Witt is a tenacious wrestler and averages over 6 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is incredible. Rowe doesn't defend takedowns particularly well, but he's not completely lost either. Rowe has, not only a striking advantage, not only the power advantage, but a 10 inch reach advantage. That's the largest disparity I can recall in recent memory. The difference for me here is that reach and the fact that Witt's chin hasn't held up very well recently.
Jailton Almeida defeats Danilo Marques Result: Almeida by TKO (2-1)
This one will also be weird. These are both heavy grapplers and by heavy grapplers, I mean neither averages over 1.56 strikes per minute. Almeida hits his takedowns at a higher percentage, defends them at a higher percentage, and attempts more submissions. I'll lean his direction in this one.
Alexis Davis defeats Julija Stoliarenko Result: Davis by decision (3-1)
This will likely be a striking battle. Stoliarenko hasn't had a ton of success so far in the UFC and unfortunately for her, I don't think that changes here. She takes more strikes than she lands and doesn't land takedowns. Davis lands with pretty good volume, but does absorb more. I think the volume striking of Davis gets her the win.
Chidi Njokuani defeats Marc-Andre Barriault Result: Njokuani by KO (4-1)
This is an interesting one. Njokuani is the more technical striker and will like to keep this fight at range. Barriault throws with much more volume and is going to look to get in his face. No one is looking for takedowns here. Njokuani strikes at a slower pace, but I think his style combined with a 6 inch reach advantage will get him a win here. He also has really good striking defense and will take advantage of counter striking opportunities.
Hakeem Dawodu defeats Michael Trizano Result: Dawodu by decision (5-1)
Third striking battle in a row and I think Dawodu has the advantage in this one. Neither fighter is looking for takedowns, so that will be a non-factor. They both absorb about the same amount of damage and Dawodu lands 1.5 more strikes per minute than Trizano does and I think that will be the difference here.
Miles Johns defeats John Castaneda Result: Castaneda by sub (5-2)
Another likely striking battle in this one. Both men can get takedowns at times, but I think their defense are both good enough to keep it standing if either one tries. They both land similar amounts on a per minute basis, but Castaneda takes significantly more damage. In fact, Castaneda absorbs about double the amount of strikes per minute than Johns does (5.07 vs 2.50). I'll lean towards Johns because of that.
Julian Erosa defeats Steven Peterson Result: Erosa by decision (6-2)
This is going to be a wild one. Both average over a takedown per 15 and have decent, but unspectacular takedown defense. Neither hit their takedowns at a particularly high rate either. Both men are really active on the feet, but absorb more strikes than they land. Peterson missed weight (again), so his cardio may be a problem due to the cut. I've also seen Erosa do it against better competition, so I'm going with him.
Tresean Gore defeats Bryan Battle Result: Battle by devision (6-3)
This was going to be the ultimate fighter finale until Gore pulled out with the injury. Both men are finishers, but very inexperienced. I didn't watch hardly any of the season, but from what I can tell, I think Gore is a better, more explosive athlete. I like what I see from him in what I can find on youtube, so I'll go with him.
Brendan Allen defeats Sam Alvey Result: Allen by KO (7-3)
Another striking battle and I honestly just can't pick Alvey at this point. He's on a historic slide and I don't think Allen is the guy to turn it around against. I like Allen's power and volume, even though he's coming off of a knockout loss. Alvey won't likely be finished and throws with his own power, so Allen has to be careful, but if we get the version of Brendan Allen that fought against Puna Soriano, then Allen should win this fight.
Carlston Harris defeats Shavkat Rakhmonov Result: Rakhmonov by KO (7-4)
This one is going to surprise some people and maybe I'm just being contrarian and out smarting myself, but I really like Harris. He has serious finishing ability and he won't have a huge size disadvantage like most people do against Shavkat. Rakhmonov can be a little slow paced on the feet and Harris throws with volume. I think he can get ahead on the feet and keep it standing with his perfect takedown defense so far.
Punahele Soriano defeats Nick Maximov Result: Maximov by decision (7-5)
Speaking of Puna Soriano, I like him to pick up a win in this one. This is striker vs grappler and Puna has 100% takedown defense so far, with Maximov landing his takedowns with 30% success. I like both Puna's volume and power to get it done as he keeps this fight standing.
Sean Strickland defeats Jack Hermansson Result: Strickland by decision (8-5)
I came into this week thinking I liked Hermansson to win, but after my preview yesterday, I swayed myself. I think Strickland has the skillset to get it done. Hermansson will likely have to get it to the ground to win and I like Sean's takedown defense to hold up enough. If it stays on the feet, Strickland is more refined and throws his combinations at a higher rate to end up getting the win, probably be decision.
What do you guys think? Where do you agree and disagree? Do you have any big upsets? Are you fading me or riding with me? Leave any of your thoughts as well as your picks below. Enjoy the fights, thanks for reading, and have a good one. Come back Sunday morning and I'll have this updated with the results and my year to date record and all that stuff.
UPDATE:
We got off to a really hot start and then finished a little up and down. The Bondar loss is unfortunate, thought he was the better fighter but it wasn't going his way even before the injury. Hope he's ok and returns soon, would have liked to see that fight actually play out though. The Njokuani fight was a pick 'em and he came up huge with the quick knockout. Great performance by him. Miles Johns didn't have a great performance, but Castaneda looked really good. We did have a close decision for Julian Erosa go our way so that's a positive. Gore looked like a guy who only had 4 career fights. He has skills in there, but he needs a lot of work before I see him as a legitimate player in any division. I was a little harsh on Sam Alvey and seeing his reaction after he lost made me a little sad. He's had a horrible stretch, but he's still a human being. I figured the Shavkat fight would come back to get me, but I felt like Harris would have a better performance than that. I get wrestling is a part of the sport, but not even the biggest freestyle wrestling fans in the world can tell me that Maximov fight was fun to watch. It's up to Puna to stop it and get his distance, but there has to be a way to stop that kind of style from being so effective. He just pushed him against the side of the cage and grabbed onto his legs for the better part of 15 minutes with basically no damage and very little actual top control. Has to be a frustrating fight to lose for Puna. Hermansson really didn't perform up to the level I expected. Strickland was great and he was able to stay in control up until the last 15 seconds or so and took basically no damage other than 1 punch that bloodied his nose towards the end. Overall, it was a pretty good day that got away from us a little at the end. All in all, a solid performance.
Weekly Record: 8-5
Previous Record: 13-8
New Year to Date Record: 21-13
Comments
Post a Comment