Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell was one of the most surprising fights on the card for me. Not because Bryce Mitchell won, but how clearly he won wasn't really high on my list of possible outcomes. I knew Mitchell would take him down eventually and would look much better as the fight went on, but for him to dominant basically the entire fight from start to finish was definitely a surprise to me. I figured Barboza would be able to have a little more success early on, but he really didn't. Mitchell shut him down and was able to grind him out for 15 minutes with, I think, over 11 minutes of ground control time. Mitchell was back to his normal self after suffering some injuries that led to a long layoff and now he's going to be looking for an even bigger step up. Edson Barboza, on the other hand, was extremely disappointing and really didn't offer much, if any, resistance for most of the 15 minutes. It is really unclear what his future holds right now and, after that performance, it wouldn't surprise me if he just walked away from the sport entirely.
I was really impressed with Bryce Mitchell's performance, especially considering the circumstances. He had been out for so long with at least 1 broken hand, maybe even both, I can't remember at the moment. What really concerned me though is that with the hand problems, he wouldn't have been able to work on his striking, which he really needed to do. What I hadn't considered is that it really forced him to work on his kicks, which did look improved. He also looked more powerful and explosive than he did in the past which is a really good sign. He was able to connect with a left hand and drop Barboza part way through the first round and that was basically the end of the fight. After Barboza hit the ground the first time, he was unable to stay off the mat for the rest of the fight. Mitchell is going to need to continue improving his striking if he wants to get to the top, but if this fight is any indication, he is working at it. Of course, all of that is secondary to his wrestling and cardio, which is as good as it has always been. He was able to put a pace on Barboza that had him gassed out after the first round, which allowed him to land takedowns at will in the later rounds. He really didn't need takedowns in volume because after Barboza hit the mat, he wasn't really able to get back up. Mitchell's top control was smothering and he made another adjustment that I really liked in his use of ground and pound. In the past, I thought Mitchell was too content to rely on control and position to get decision and he would mix in submission attempts. His willingness to damage Barboza with elbows and punches from the top will be important going forward and I really liked that the added that to his game. He threw the strikes with good volume too. He looked much improved and I'm much more confident in his ability to rise higher in the division after this fight than I was before it. I forgot to mention this earlier and I wanted to include it. While there is a lot more room for his striking to grow, I do like that he seemed to have more confidence in it. He didn't immediately dive for the legs, but instead showed a calmness and patience to push Barboza back against the cage and then land the big shot to put him down. He's not a fantastic striker and I don't know if he will ever be one, but the fact that he felt comfortable and confident enough to strike with Barboza for a stretch is a positive sign.
Bryce Mitchell finds himself in an interesting spot going forward. He's undefeated and is on a really good winning streak. The problem is that there really isn't a clear next place to go for him. I don't think he's going to jump right into the top 5, so those options are out. I would honestly be a little surprised if he fought back in the rankings too. You don't often see the UFC build a prospect by putting them into the rankings and then having them fight someone beneath them. So if he moves up to the 10 spot on Tuesday, he will have limited options. Josh Emmett is on a pretty good run and I don't think he'll be fighting down whenever we seem him next. He could be a win away from the title shot to be honest. Arnold Allen is booked a couple of weeks from now against Dan Hooker, so the schedule lines up for the winner of that fight to get Mitchell next, but I don't feel like that is likely, especially if Allen wins. If Allen gets the victory, I think he's basically in the same spot as Emmett. To me, that leaves Dan Hooker, Dan Ige, and Giga Chikadze. I think all of these would be really good matchups for Bryce and I think fights against Hooker and Giga could even be a fight night main event. Hooker and Giga would represent a similar situation as Barboza in a lot of ways. They give him a striker to go against to see if he can force them to grapple. The only difference is that both Giga and Hooker are better than Barboza, so it is a similar style, just at a higher level. Ige is much more on the same level as Barboza, but instead of being a specialist, he's much more well rounded. Ige would present someone who is much better equipped to deal with Mitchell's grappling, but who isn't such a high level striker that Mitchell would just be blown away on the feet. Ige is still a better striker than Mitchell and would be the weaker grappler, but the gaps for each are closer than they were in the Barboza matchup. Ige is on the schedule for early June, so that fight probably is a little less likely just because the schedules are a little too far off. I can't rule it out completely though because Bryce Mitchell has never been the most active fighter even when fully healthy. If Dan Hooker loses, I think the UFC would look to make that matchup first. If it were up to me, I think I would look at the Ige matchup, as long as Bryce Mitchell isn't looking for a quick turnaround, which historically he hasn't done. Now, I do have to acknowledge that I am someone who often prefers to build someone slowly instead of forcing large jumps in competition. I don't feel the need to rush someone to the top, but rather have them make incremental steps so that when they get to the top, they are truly ready. Also, I think forcing someone to the top ends up having them sit for long periods, which isn't always great for young prospects. I think it would be more productive for Bryce Mitchell's career if he were to fight 3 times in 2022 than if he were to wait until October for a specific opponent. I said the same thing with Khamzat Chimaev. I think it would have been better for him to fight Neil Magny and then someone else because we've been trying to book the Gilbert Burns fight for how long now. He last fought in October and he won't fight again until next month. Is that really best for his development 4 fights into his UFC career? I don't know, I just think the slow path ultimately pays off in the end. Of course, the status of the rest of the division is what ultimately dictates these decisions a lot of the times. Khamzat is getting Gilbert Burns next in part due to the fact that Kamaru Usman is cleaning out the weight class. It isn't an apples to apples comparison though because Khamzat is absolutely dominating high level UFC competition without taking literally any damage at all. Mitchell is still winning, but he's not just walking through guys the same way. Anways, I like any of those matchups for Bryce Mitchell. I think Ige is the one I like the best right now, but given the schedule, I'm down to see him fight Giga or Dan Hooker too. He's in a good spot and he'll have a big opportunity next time out.
On the other side of things, I was really underwhelmed with what I saw from Edson Barboza. Barboza has been in the UFC for a long time and we largely know what to expect from him. He is still a high level striker and we got to see that he still has great leg kicks when he can get them off. However, he got dropped by Bryce Mitchell, who isn't particularly a high level striker or an overly powerful striker. He was also completely gassed out after a single takedown in the first round. The broadcast seemed to wonder whether the move to featherweight was the cause and I have to assume that it was at least partially responsible. Barboza has never really been the kind of fighter who could go all day, but to only have a single round of cardio in a fight that he had a whole camp for is not a great situation. The lack of urgency the entire time was also a really bad sign in my opinion. He would get taken down and was content to lay on his back with a closed guard for the remainder of the round, even in the 3rd when it was clear that he had lost the first 2. It was just a really uninspired performance that was made to look even worse when put next to the performance and heart shown by Renato Moicano immediately after. I'm trying not to become a prisoner of the moment and overreact too much, but at 36, I think this loss may have been the last best chance for Barboza to make a push. He's now lost 2 in a row and will probably have to move back up to 155. If he stays at featherweight, it seems like his gas tank is going to be severely depleted to the point where a single takedown is enough to virtually end the fight for him. Of course, that doesn't mean that there's no room on the roster for Barboza and I don't think he's near the point where the UFC would release him.
With that said, I don't think we see Barboza in a particularly big fight in his next appearance. He has lost 2 in a row, so the UFC will probably look to give him someone coming off of a loss if possible. Near the bottom part of the rankings, it is hard to find fighters coming off of a loss because a loss from that spot usually results in the losing fighter falling out and their opponent jumping in, so keep that in mind. We're getting Sodiq Yusuff vs Alex Caceres this weekend, so it makes sense that Barboza could get either of them because of the way the schedule lines up. I think it probably would make a little more sense for him to fight Caceres because if Yusuff wins, he probably jumps Barboza in the rankings. If Caceres wins, he probably ends up right behind Barboza and that makes for a similar situation to the fight we just saw with Bryce Mitchell since they were 10 and 11 going into Saturday. If Barboza is done at featherweight and decides to go back to lightweight to help his cardio situation, then I think Brad Riddell makes some sense. They're both coming off of a loss and are at similar spots in the rankings. I think those are the level of fighters that Edson Barboza is going to be matched up against at this point. I wouldn't even be surprised if he got an unranked opponent next time out. I could see someone like Bobby Green or Joel Alvarez at lightweight. At featherweight, he could see someone such as Ilia Topuria (booked for 3/19), Cub Swanson, Ryan Hall, Hakeem Dawodu, or Billy Quarantillo. Quarantillo made a polite call out on social media too so maybe they look to go in that direction.
What do you guys think? What did you think of the fight? How far do you think Bryce Mitchell can go? Who should he fight next? What are we to make of Edson Barboza's performance? What type of opponent should he face next time out? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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