Alright, it's another Saturday, which means we have another UFC card ready to go. This is the final card in what has felt like a long month between pay per view cards. Luckily, next week is UFC 274 and we'll get Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje and Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza. Until then, we have to get through this card and of the three events since UFC 273, I think this is probably the most competitive card from beginning to end. The betting lines suggest as much. Most of these fights are very evenly lined and that tells us that most of these fights could actually go either way and are going to be interesting to see which ways it goes. Last week was a little better than the week before, but this one actually has fights that provide intrigue all throughout and not just at moments. It's hard not to look past this and just want to get on with UFC 274, but I think this should provide for a nice afternoon. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's get into it.
Carlos Candelario defeats Tatsuro Taira Result: Cancelled
This fight has Taira making his UFC debut as a pretty solid favorite, which is a little odd to me. We've seen Candelario a couple of times against UFC or fringe UFC level competition and while he isn't a world beater, he's far from the worst fighter we've seen even in the last month. Taira is going to be looking to grapple in this one and he looks to get his opponent's back as quickly as possible once the fight is down. Candelario doesn't have the best takedown defense, but he is usually able to get back to his feet or create a scramble and find himself on top. He's not a bad wrestler himself and averages over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes. Candelario is also the better striker. He does absorb a little too much damage, but he strikes with very solid volume. I think Candelario keeps this one standing enough to get the win.
Gina Mazany defeats Shanna Young Result: Young by TKO (0-1)
This is a bit of a weird one. Neither Mazany or Young have had much recent success, so the loser may find themselves in another promotion in their next fight. With that said, I do think Mazany is a better fighter. She's going to have a 3 inch reach advantage and strikes with a positive differential. She doesn't throw with great volume, but she absorbs less, so at leas there's that. Young absorbs almost 2 full strikes per minute more than she lands, which, in the industry they call "not good". Mazany is also the superior wrestler, which is where I expect her to find most of her success. She averages 4.70 takedowns per 15 minutes and she lands them at a solid 58% success rate. Young also doesn't have great takedown defense, so I expect that she finds herself on her back early and often. I think this is really Mazany's fight to lose.
Natan Levy defeats Mike Breeden Result: Levy by decision (1-1)
This is another weird one. Levy is extremely grappling heavy and his striking stats are sort of thrown for a loop because of it. As my pick suggests, I think Levy is able to wrestle Breeden to death. He averages almost 3 takedowns per 15 minutes, while getting those takedowns at a 55% rate. He is also fairly aggressive with his submissions attempts once the fight is grounded. If Levy is the grappler, then Breeden is the striker and he's had some mixed success. He doesn't land with great efficiency, but even then, he is at over 4 strikes per minute. His striking defense needs some work as he just takes way too much damage. He does have pretty decent takedown defense though, so if he can keep it standing, then he has a real shot here. I think Levy can get it done though, I'll lean his way in this one.
Gabe Green defeats Yohan Lainesse Result: Green by KO (2-1)
This is a tough one. Both are early in their UFC career, so their stats are very limited and not of much use. This fight should take place almost entirely on the feet. Lainesse has huge power and finishes a lot of fights early, but if he can't get that in the first round, I don't think it goes well for him. Green is probably the better overall striker and is going to throw with significantly more volume. He will be able to tire Lainesse out as the fight progresses. The problem is that Green is extremely hittable and with the power of Lainesse, that could be an issue. Lainesse doesn't have great striking defense either though, so I think the volume striking from Green is what prevails here.
Daniel da Silva defeats Francisco Figueiredo Result: Figueiredo by sub (2-2)
We're back with another odd matchup. Da Silva is a finisher with good power and solid grappling skills. He finishes so many fights early that his cardio situation isn't completely clear. Figueiredo on the other hand is a very low output striker and does tend to tire early. Figueiredo does have legitimate grappling skills, but he uses so little activity, that he could have a few minutes of control and end up losing the round by absorbing like 10 strikes. I really have no idea how this is going to go, but I'll lean on da Silva's finishing ability.
Alexandr Romanov defeats Chase Sherman Result: Romanov by sub (3-2)
We were supposed to get this last week, but something happened and here we are. As the betting line suggests, Romanov should win this fight. He's going to get Sherman to the ground and probably submits him. Sherman has had trouble with submissions in the past against opponent's that aren't even known for their grappling. For a second, let's give some respect to Chase Sherman. This is still heavyweight MMA and Sherman does have some power. I can't imagine Romanov has great cardio, if the fight can make it out of round one. With Sherman sitting around +900, I think that is worth a shot because Romanov isn't a world beater. With that said, Romanov should most certainly win this fight and probably pretty early.
Gerald Meerschaert defeats Krzysztof Jotko Result: Jotko by decision (3-3)
This is much more of a traditional striker vs grappler matchup. Jotko presents the striking side and he is the stereotypical range kick boxer. He is mostly point fighting as he doesn't have great power, but he's really good at that style. He also has really good takedown defense, so he could very well keep this fight standing. Meerschaert is the grappler and he presents very dangerous submissions. Meerschaert's striking still isn't great, but he has improved to some degree. He throws with more volume, but is a bit hittable. I don't think Jotko hits hard enough or throws enough to really take advantage of it. I think Meerschaert's pressure and pace are going to be enough for him to get the win in this one, even if it doesn't get to the ground. He may struggle to get takedowns in bunches, but just one is all he needs as he can submit guys with the best of them.
Darren Elkins defeats Tristan Connelly Result: Elkins by decision (4-3)
This is a bit of an interesting situation. In theory, Elkins should be able to get the win in this fight. Throughout his career, Elkins has proven to be the better fighter than what we've seen from Connelly to this point in his career. Elkins strikes with more volume, will have the better cardio, and is the better grappler. Elkins wrestling is going to still be nonstop from the opening bell until the final horn. Connelly strikes with lower volume and isn't an offensive grappler, despite having decent enough takedown defense. The key to this is where Elkins is at in his career. People don't call him "The Damage" because he has had a career of great striking defense. Elkins has taken a ton of punishment in his career and it is unclear where his chin still stands. If this is still the old Elkins, it is his fight to lose, but that is a big question given his age and the amount of punishment he's taken.
Grant Dawson defeats Jared Gordon Result: Dawson by sub (5-3)
I've gone back and forth on this fight and I think I am settling here, but it really could go either way. Dawson is a lower volume striker, but he has done a pretty good job of limiting damage. His wrestling and top control game are his bread and butter though. He also attempts submissions are a pretty high rate. Gordon is also a pretty solid wrestler, but is much more interested in control over submitting his opponents. He isn't completely lost on the feet either and while he isn't the most technical striker, he throws with really good volume, while exhibiting good striking defense. Neither has great takedown defense and I think Dawson will be able to take advantage more. This one is close and I think Dawson, as the younger and longer guy, might edge it out.
Andre Fili defeats Joanderson Brito Result: Brito by KO (5-4)
This one is really close. In the striking, both fighters differential is almost zero. They basically absorb as many strikes as they land. Both have a below average strike accuracy and just mediocre striking defense by percentage. They both average over 2 takedowns per 15, but Brito's is a little higher and he's been a little more efficient. There's just a few things that make me lean Fili here. First, Brito has never successfully defended a takedown in the UFC. Obviously, his takedown defense exists, but Fili is pretty good, so I think he can get to his takedowns if he so chooses. Also, Fili is just a touch more active in the striking, but not by much. I don't completely trust Brito's cardio either, so I lean Fili here.
Andrei Arlovski defeats Jake Collier Result: Arlovski by decision (6-4)
In theory, Jake Collier should win this fight. Neither guy is a wrestler and Collier has the noticeable edge in cardio and striking volume here. They have respectable power, but nothing that is truly fight altering, at least at this stage. However, Arlovski just has this thing about him where he makes every fight he's in a split decision and suckers his opponents into his style of fight. He has a tendency to freeze his opponents and bring their volume down to a level where he can win on points. His footwork is one of the best parts of his game and I think he will somehow manage to use that to edge out another close win.
Marlon Vera defeats Rob Font Result: Vera by decision (7-4)
Rob Font is the more technically skilled fighter here, but I think Chito can find a way. After Font missed weight, I think that might be the opening that Chito can really take advantage of. He needs to find a way to start a little faster, but I think, with his cardio, he will be able to put it on Font late. He will use his low kicks and mix in the grappling. Font must have had a bad weight cut, so we'll see how he looks in the early going and how much cardio he really has. This fight was already so even, the weight situation pushed me over the edge in Chito's favor.
That is it from me on this card. I'll be back later to update this and calculate my new record. I'm hoping for a fun afternoon of fights and to get back on track after some mediocre weeks of picks. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card.
UPDATE:
Well, we're finally back on track with a solid week and what a night of fights it was. This UFC card was fine. It had a mix of finishes and some solid fights that went to the scorecards. It isn't a card for the ages, but it served it's purpose. The main event was the best we've had in awhile. Based on just memory and no research, that is on the list for fight of the year candidates with Burn vs Chimaev so far. I switched from that to Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano and that was the real fight of the year. That is the best fight I've seen in a minute and you guys know I'm not really even that into boxing. I also saw that Nico Ali Walsh got another knockout, so shoutout to him. I didn't see any of the Stevenson fight though, so you'll have to let me know how that one went. Anyways, let's talk about our results.
Our first loss came in the form of Gina Mazany and Shanna Young and Mazany just didn't look all that great again. I think this could be the end of her UFC run. Good for Young to get her first UFC win and keep herself afloat. Da Silva looked good until he didn't. He got the takedown so easily and then Figueiredo created the scramble where he jumped on the knee bar and finished it pretty quickly from there. He's been inconsistent in his career, but this is a nice win for him. Next was Meerschaert and Jotko and that fight was a little odd. Jotko felt comfortable in top position against GM3, which I never would've guessed, but he pretty much cruised to a win. Our final loss was Andre Fili to Joanderson Brito and the finishing ability of Brito is something I sort of glossed over and clearly that was a mistake. Brito landed the huge shot early and finished Fili soon after. That right hand was serious and it was a great win for Brito who is still young in his UFC career.
We did have some pretty good wins as well. Levy vs Breeden was one of the more competitive fights of the night and Levy edged out a decision. That was a pretty good fight and Levy's cardio held up just enough, but there's still room for improvement in that department. Gabe Green did exactly as I said he would. He survived the early onslaught and then let his cardio and volume striking take over and he got the finish. The body shots to an already depleted fighter worked wonders and he is going to be a fun guy to watch whenever his name comes up on the schedule for some years to come even if he doesn't really make a title push. Romanov vs Sherman was what it was. It was a horrible matchup for Sherman and that showed pretty quickly. The main card was much better for us as Elkins did his thing. I'm not sure how much more he has in the tank, but he largely looked like himself Saturday. I love every time we get to see guys like him because we know there isn't too many left. Dawson had a dominant performance and got to Gordon's back every round. He ended up locking in the submission late and he might be looking at a ranked opponent next. I say it every time and it holds true. Andrei Arlovski will only be in split decisions for the rest of his career and he finds a way to do just enough. I thought Collier had won, but this is what Arlovski does. I honestly believe the very pro-Andrei crowd might have influenced things. Finally, Chito Vera was able to really put it on Rob Font. Font got off to a good start, but Chito took momentum at the end of the second and was able to maintain it for long stretches of the fight. I'm doing the full breakdown on that Monday, so I won't get into too much of that here.
Weekly Record: 7-4
Previous Year to Date Record: 104 - 55
Updated Year to Date Record: 111 - 59
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