Today is going to be a fantastic day of sports. We have regular season baseball, which is my real favorite sport, playoff hockey, playoff basketball, and then UFC 274 to cap it all off. I'm really looking forward to this last great weekend before I really have to grind for some personal things and real life work. I've heard some mixed opinions on this card, which is pretty surprising because I think this card is honestly pretty good. I mean, the Cowboy/Lauzon and OSP/Shogun fights aren't like altering the title picture, but they're still legends of the sport and they're pretty cool fights to see as all of those careers are coming to an end sooner rather than later. There's some fights that I am looking forward to on the early part of the card as well. I think it is a pretty fun one and the PPV portion is plenty reasonable to me. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's go.
Fernie Garcia defeats Journey Newson Result: Newson by decision (0-1)
A bit of a tough one off the bat, but I'm going to lean slightly towards Garcia in this one. I expect that this fight will be decided on the feet and Garcia is going to be the one moving forward and throwing with more volume. Garcia absorbs more damage than you would prefer, but I don't know that Newson throws with enough frequency to fully take advantage of it. Newson probably does have a slight power advantage as well, but I don't think it is fight altering. I like Garcia's aggression and volume striking to prevale.
Loopy Godinez defeats Ariane Carnelossi Result: Godinez by decision (1-1)
I think this is probably Loopy's fight to lose. Carnelossi has the power advantage and is going to throw big shots at a pretty nice rate. She will push for takedowns as well, even though she doesn't land them at a great rate. However, I think Loopy will be able to control the grappling exchanges pretty well and Carnelossi doesn't defend takedowns well. I think Loopy is a slightly more technical striker as well and Carnelossi gets hit a little too easily. Have to go with Loopy here.
CJ Vergara defeats Kleydson Rodrigues Result: Vergara by decision (2-1)
This is one I have a feeling I might regret later. I just have too many questions about Rodrigues to fully trust him with this pick. He threw a ton of strikes and avoided damage on the contender series, but I'm just not confident that I have a full grasp on what his skillset is like against higher level competition. Vergara will also strike with good volume, but he does take too much damage. I just think he is a more sure thing right now to me, so I'll go with him.
Tracy Cortez defeats Melissa Gatto Result: Cortez by decision (3-1)
I like Cortez in this one, but a bit cautiously. Cortez is the much better wrestler and I expect her to be able to get her takedowns and control things from the top in this one. On the feet, I think it will be pretty even, but Gatto will have the noticeable power advantage. The volume of strikes landed and absorbed is pretty even for both, so I don't think the total strikes will factor in too much. The concern is that Cortez has almost been submitted her fair share, but I'm not sure Gatto is quite at the level to finish an arm bar or triangle. I think Cortez probably grinds out a decision in this one.
Andre Fialho defeats Cameron VanCamp Result: Fialho by KO (4-1)
This is one of the easier decisions to make for me. Fialho struggled in his debut against Michel Pereira, but he was much better in his second fight against a more reasonable level of competition. As long as he can keep it standing, which I think he will, he should be able to get the win. VanCamp is making his debut and I'm not completely sure what to expect from him. Fialho has pretty good power and throws with solid volume. He takes a bit of damage, but I'm not too concerned about that in this matchup.
Blagoy Ivanov defeats Marcos Rogerio de Lima Result: Ivanov by decision (5-1)
I feel like whichever way I go in this fight, it will go the other way. Rogerio has good power and could certainly get an early knockout, but after that, I'm not sure exactly how he wins. He throws hard leg kicks, but that is about it. If Blagoy was committed to wrestling the whole time, I think he would be able to get takedowns when he wanted to, but I'm not sure if he is going to go with that game plan. Overall, I trust his durability and his grappling to get the win in this one, but it is close.
Brandon Royval defeats Matt Schnell Result: Royval by sub (6-1)
Every Brandon Royval fight ends up in chaos at some point and Royval is great when the fight gets wild. Schnell on the other hand, not so much. The cleaner this fight looks, the better it is for Schnell. He's the better and more technical striker and their grappling is more or less even in my estimation. The main concern is Schnell's chin, especially if the fight gets chaotic. Schnell does take some shots and he has been knocked out before. I feel like Royval can create enough chaos to land the big shot and finish the fight at some point.
Norma Dumont defeats Macy Chiasson Result: Chiasson by decision (6-2)
This should be an interesting one and Norma missing weight kind of makes it a little more difficult. I think Dumont has the grappling advantage and could potentially control Chiasson on the ground or in the clinch for long stretches. On the feet, I think the fight is pretty even, but I like Norma's striking defense a little better. I just think Norma is a little better and Chiasson has a tendency to have things snowball on her when they start to go sideways.
Danny Roberts defeats Francisco Trinaldo Result: Trinaldo by decision (6-3)
This might be another one that I regret, but I just don't feel comfortable picking Trinaldo here. He's not exactly a young man any more and he seems to be slowing down a bit. This fight can truly go either way because Roberts is going to fight a style that gives Trinaldo a chance. They're both low volume strikers who have ok power, but nothing great, and they both have shaky chins. What could go wrong in picking this fight? Roberts is a little younger and I think he'll have a slight speed advantage. I can't really say any more than that, it is basically a coin flip.
Khaos Williams defeats Randy Brown Result: Brown by decision (6-4)
This one is pretty close. Williams is a big power striker who throws with actually pretty good volume, which isn't the norm for huge power punchers. He also throws pretty good and really hard leg kicks. His ground game is pretty weak, to say the least, but I'm not sure Brown will take advantage. I think Randy Brown is probably the more skilled fighter, but he just doesn't wrestle, even though he has a solid base. He probably has the more diverse set of attacks as well, but he's also had durability issues at times and has been prone to leg kicks. If he chose to wrestle from start to finish, I think he could win, but I don't know that he'll actually have that game plan.
Cowboy Cerrone defeats Joe Lauzon Result: Cancelled
Nothing will truly surprise me in this fight. I think Lauzon will win early and if it goes beyond the first round, Cerrone will take it. Lauzon doesn't have great cardio at this age and he hasn't fought in a couple of years. Cowboy can be finished early, so Joe certainly has a real chance, but I think if Cerrone can survive an early onslaught, he will probably be able to finish a gassed out Lauzon in the second or third round. At the end of the day, I think Cowboy's more consistent fights will do him well against Lauzon who we haven't seen in awhile. Lauzon takes a ton of strikes and doesn't throw a ton back. I think Cerrone is good enough on the ground to not get submitted if it goes there, but he has pretty good takedown defense, so I'm not worried about that.
Ovince St. Preux defeats Shogun Rua Result: St. Preux by decision (7-4)
I have to go with OSP here. Historically, this probably would have been a much closer fight even though OSP won when they fought years ago, but in 2022, I just can't pick Shogun. He hasn't aged very well and I really hoped that his previous fight would be his last. At this stage, they're both low output strikers and they have limited cardio, which ultimately limits their willingness and ability to grapple. At the end of the day, I think OSP is a bigger and stronger athlete and will strike with more power. I don't think Shogun will be able to stand up to that power very long. This fight might be an ugly one to watch because both could gas out and end up clinching for a lot of the 15 minutes if it goes that long.
Tony Ferguson defeats Michael Chandler Result: Chandler by KO (7-5)
I talked about it in the full preview, but I don't think Michael Chandler is going to commit to wrestling for 3 full rounds. He's going to want to entertain the crowd and is going to have a fun striking battle. Despite what he's been through recently, Tony is still extremely tough and has great cardio. He's going to throw a ton of strikes and won't stop. Chandler relies on his explosiveness and that limits his cardio. It is impossible to explode the way he does for prolonged stretches. His striking defense also isn't great. If Tony can make it out of the first round, I think his volume striking can take over in the later rounds. Chandler may be able to control Ferguson if he was truly committed to winning at all costs, but I don't believe that is the fight we'll see.
Carla Esparza defeats Rose Namajunas Result: Esparza by decision (8-5)
This may come as a surprise, but I think Carla has the perfect style to beat Rose. She's one of the best wrestlers we've seen in the history of women's MMA and she knows it. She isn't going to get suckered into a standup fight and she knows that her wrestling has gotten to Rose once. Rose struggled with the wrestling of Zhang Weili and she isn't anywhere near Carla's ability. If she could somehow keep it standing, she would easily beat Carla, but I just don't think she can consistently stuff Carla's takedowns. Rose is also a bit content to stay on her back sometimes. That will give Carla an easier time gaining a lot of top control. As that control piles up, Rose will start to tire and she'll become easier to get down and keep down. Rose could knock her out, but I don't see that as particularly likely. I think Carla becomes champion one more time.
Justin Gaethje defeats Charles Oliveira Result: Oliveira by sub (8-6)
I was leaning Gaethje ever so slightly, but the weight issue fully convinced me. I thought Gaethje's kicks and power were going to be too much for Oliveira to handle. He was hurt by both Chandler and Poirier, but I think the kicks are going to limit Oliveira's movement and make it more difficult for him to get the takedowns. If the fight hits the ground, it is all but over because Gaethje's ground game looked weak against Khabib. Oliveira can certainly get the knockout as well, but that is where the weight situation came in to me. Oliveira needs to come forward in order to have success, but if his durability is compromised because of a bad weight cut, that might be enough to sway the fight in Gaethje's favor. With the bad cut, I think that is enough for me to pick against Oliveira, which I don't do very often these days.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions? Are you following me or fading me? Leave all of your thoughts and picks in the comments. I'll be back after to update the results and calculate my new year to date record. Enjoy the fights, thanks for reading, and have a good one.
UPDATE:
Event Record: 8-6
Previous Year to Date Record: 111 - 59
New Year to Date Record: 119 - 65
I decided to start putting the updated record first since that is what people probably come back for more than anything, but we'll go over the wins and losses briefly. As for the losses, Journey Newson looked improved from when we last saw him. He was largely able to neutralize Fernie Garcia, so good for him. He was managing distance very well and didn't take hardly any damage at all, so hopefully he has a quicker turnaround this time. The Dumont/Chaisson fight was pretty close. It surprised me how Chaisson was actually the one controlling the grappling though, but she needed that win. Dumont was probably the number one contender for the featherweight title if that ever gets defended again, but we'll see where that goes. Francisco Trinaldo proved me wrong and I'm really not too surprised. He would normally beat Roberts, but I thought time had finally caught up to him, but not quite yet. I'm not sure how much longer he'll keep fighting, but he's still holding his own against the appropriate level of competition. Randy Brown fought the exact fight that I wasn't sure if he could. Brown has tremendous talent and I think he has serious potential on any given Saturday, but his inconsistencies led me to go with Khaos. We got a pretty good version of Randy Brown and when that happens, he usually wins, which is what we saw. I really thought I had something with Tony Ferguson and he started off pretty well. He got taken down and was on his back during the latter half of the round, but he was firing off the elbows that we know him for and his striking was better than Chandler's when they were standing. He even got the knockdown early and one could argue that was enough to win him round one. Of course, none of that really mattered because Chandler landed one of the most devastating kicks I've ever seen in the early moments of the second round. Tony was out cold and stayed out for awhile and I hope he's feeling alright now. Obviously, I knew Tony losing was in the cards, but I didn't see him getting slept like that as really even an option. The final loss was Justin Gaethje and that fight was largely a coin flip. The weight issue for Oliveira pointed me in the direction that I was already leaning towards, so I just went with it. Oliveira was dropped multiple times, as is typical for him these days, but ended up landing his own right hand and then jumped on him before locking in the choke after a few transitions. He has cemented himself as the guy in that weight class and given the records he already holds, he's putting himself on the list of a potential top 5 lightweight of all time or at least in UFC history.
A lot of our wins came pretty early in the card, but I'll take what I can get. Our first might have been the most impressive win of the night in Loopy Godinez. That was a dominant win and she looked fantastic. I think she really put herself on a radar where people are watching her now as someone who may have a real future in the rankings and maybe even a future title contender. There's a lot that needs to happen between now and then, but she put herself on the map in a big way. The Vergara win was really close. I went with him just because I was more confident in my evaluation of where his skills were actually at and Rodrigues was a solid opponent. He impressed me as well and they're both pretty entertaining fighters. I don't think they're on a trajectory that has them fighting for the belt, but there's room on the roster for tough guys who put on fun fights to watch. The Cortez fight went basically how I expected. Cortez had the wrestling advantage and was able to get the fight down, but she is very susceptible to submissions, which she was able to avoid this time. If she can maintain a higher level of activity and not take so much time between fights, I still feel like she could make a solid push. Andre Fialho also did what I expected. He got thrown into the deep end in his debut, but since then he's shown some real potential and the power in his hands is for real. His shots just effect people differently. I'm interested to see what they have in mind for him whenever he fights again. The Blagoy Ivanov win was close as well, but I'm always glad to see him fight. He fights a style that is just intriguing to me for some reason. For someone to be as consistently durable as he is at heavyweight, he's just not a fun matchup for anyone. I thought he looked really good considering how long he had been away. I just sort of had the feeling about Royval. He creates so much chaos when he fights and that is where he thrives. Schnell was very much the opposite and I felt that Royval would have a better chance of getting into a fire fight than Schnell would have to keep it calm. Royval mixed it up and eventually jumped on the choke. That is another good win for him. I hold out hope that he can get a title shot just for the chaos that would ensue. I can't even be happy about the OSP win because that fight just wasn't great. I didn't really expect it to be any different, but it was still a tough watch. If Shogun only wants one more, then I don't see why he shouldn't get it, but no more than that. He held his own, but he clearly isn't the old Shogun and I just don't want to see him fight anyone that would get him too hurt in whatever that last fight may be. He's a legend of the game and as long as the next one truly is the last one and comes against someone on his level, I think he's earned it. I think OSP is probably coming to the end as well. For someone who is such a massive athlete and has so much natural ability, I can't believe he struggles with output the way he does, but he's also not a young man anymore. I don't wish any of the older fighters out, but I do want to see them get out before they really compromise their health more than they already have. My final win was Carla Esparza and I don't really even know what to say about that fight to be honest. I'm glad she won and didn't even have to take damage for her wedding, but that was an odd fight. I can't believe both women were happy to go to decision without really pushing that much. I can't imagine having lost that fight, either way the decision went, and having to live with the fact that I lost without really giving everything I had. Rose will probably bounce back and I would imagine she has another title shot in her future, but that has to be a hard pill to swallow.
That's it from me. The fallout posts are coming this week, so be ready for those. I'll be more detailed there on some of the biggest fights of the night. Overall, it was a great night of competition and a lot of fun. I need to have some better weeks on these picks, but better days are ahead. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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