Well, after a hectic week that saw me have to put out some content that was a bit on the lazy side in terms of topics and post sporadically, we have a card to talk about. With the amount of stress I was under, I'm so glad to have an event to watch this weekend and it should be an interesting one. I think we should see some compelling stylistic matchups and relatively decent name value, at least compared to what we've seen over the last few events. This is the first main event that I haven't done a preview on since I don't know when, but I just didn't have the time to do it before Thursday and then I was exhausted so I opted to not post at all Thursday, which is when I was the busiest, and just post the top 10 fights yesterday. That part is done, but I am going on vacation next week, so I'm not sure exactly how my posts will look. Everything leading up to UFC 275 should look the same, but I don't think I'll have anything the week following. I'll try to at least get my picks out on that Saturday, but I'm not sure if I'll have a write up as I'll have a busy schedule. I may just tweet them out and not have a full post. Anyways, we have a long card this week so let's not mess around. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Erin Blanchfield defeats JJ Aldrich Result: Blanchfield by sub (1-0)
I like Blanchfield quite a bit and I think she may end up challenging for a title before her career comes to an end. With that said, Aldrich has been pretty solid herself so far in her UFC career. Aldrich brings solid boxing and has shown pretty decent takedown defense so far, which she's going to need. If she can keep it standing, she'll give herself a chance as Blanchfield is weaker standing than in the grappling. Aldrich is a bit hittable though and while Blanchfield isn't amazing on the feet, she does throw with decent volume and defends strikes fairly well. Blanchfield should have the grappling advantage and if she can get it down, she has an excellent top game. For as skilled as Aldrich is, I think her athletic limitations may end up costing her here against one of the bigger and stronger fighters in the division that isn't already towards the top. I like Blanchfield in this one.
Andreas Michailidis defeats Rinat Fakhretdinov Result: Fakhretdinov by decision (1-1)
This is a tough one as Fakhretdinov is a bit hard to project. He finishes a lot of his opponents very quickly, so his cardio and generally how he deals with resistance are a bit unknown. Despite having so many career fights, a vast majority of them have come against opponents with only a handful of fights themselves. Michailidis isn't exactly a world beater himself, but he has shown at least respectable skills. I wouldn't say he has a real area of clear strength, but he has at least a base everywhere. His wrestling is probably the weaker part of his game, so I'll expect that we see him look to strike at range in this one. He throws with ok volume and has shown to have at least respectable power. Given Rinat's level of competition, I have to go with Michailidis here. Rinat does get a fair amount of takedowns, but I just can't put too much stock into them given that he's fighting against people who aren't full time MMA fighters. Michailidis doesn't have great cardio either though, but I think he is the more technical fighter, so I do give him a slight edge.
Jeff Molina defeats Zhalgas Zhumagulov Result: Molina by decision (2-1)
This one is an interesting fight and I'm always down to see Jeff Molina again. Molina will bring his volume heavy striking style and it is my guess that he can probably win this fight based on that. However, I do think Zhumagulov has at least a chance here. Molina starts a bit slow and doesn't have great defense. Molina absorbs a ton of strikes on the feet and doesn't defend takedowns very well. Zhumagulov has pretty decent power for his size and isn't afraid to throw shots, but I think his own poor striking defense may do him in. With someone who is going to throw as much as Molina is, not being able to avoid strikes makes this a tough matchup. The path for Zhumagulov is to use his physicality to wrestle, but he doesn't hit takedowns at a high rate at all. Even with Molina's suspect takedown defense, I think he can keep this standing enough to take advantage on the feet and volume strike his way to a win.
Tony Gravely defeats Johnny Munoz Result: Gravely by KO (3-1)
This feels like a fight that no matter what I do, it will go the other way. It feels like Gravely has more ways to win, which is sort of my fall back when I don't know what to do. I think Gravely is pretty clearly the better pure wrestler in this one and should be able to get to his takedowns early and often. He's not a great defensive wrestler, but I think he is probably better at that than Munoz is in the offensive wrestling. I also think Gravely has a pretty noticeable advantage on the feet. He will strike with solid volume and power. He isn't always the cleanest, but he is at least willing. Munoz striking, on the other hand, hasn't shown itself to be dangerous at all. He doesn't throw a ton of strikes and the ones he does throw are just to touch his opponent and try to set up the grappling. His power is really low for the weight class. The very real path to victory for Munoz is by submission. I think that is probably the only way for him to win because I don't think his wrestling is good enough for him to end up taking Gravely down and ending up on top. The problem is that Gravely has been a bit vulnerable to submissions thus far in his career. This is very similar to the Tracy Cortez fight from a few weeks ago and it worked out for me there as well as the Tabatha Ricci fight. I think Gravely probably gets to his takedowns and Munoz will be too content to fight off of his back and could lose the decision.
Niklas Stolze defeats Benoit St. Denis Result: St. Denis by sub (3-2)
St. Denis is coming off of one of the worst beatings I've seen in a UFC fight in a long time. That was the card that saw the referee from that fight removed from the rest of his assignments because he allowed that fight to continue. For that kind of punishment, that fight wasn't that long ago and I can't imagine that St. Denis has even been back in the gym all that long. He's extremely tough, but I think the rest of his skills still have a lot of questions to be answered. Stolze isn't a great striker, especially with the volume, but I think he can at least hold his own. He will probably be looking to grapple and I think he could have a fair amount of success. St. Denis is a grappler himself, but he has found himself unable to get off the bottom at times. I think Stolze may even have the advantage on the feet with a more diverse set of strikes. I'm a bit surprised that Stolze isn't listed as the favorite to be honest.
Damon Jackson defeats Dan Argueta Result: Jackson by decision (4-2)
This is a bit of a weird one as Argueta is stepping in on short notice into a matchup that I don't think is a good matchup for him. Jackson isn't a fun fight for anyone, especially someone who probably won't have their full cardio making their UFC debut. Jackson should have the grappling advantage and once he's on top, that is a bad position to be in. Argueta is also moving up a weight class, which will only make the grappling a more difficult situation for him as he'll also have a strength disadvantage. Jackson's striking has always been the weaker portion of his game and it still isn't fantastic, but he has shown improvement over the years. The concern is that Jackson has had problems with his chin in the past, but Argueta isn't a great striker and is coming up a weight class. This is my lock of the night and the betting line suggests the same.
Joe Solecki defeats Alex Da Silva Result: Solecki by decision (5-2)
This might be the most even fight on the card. I'm trusting Solecki's wrestling and overall grappling in this one. Solecki is a decent wrestler, but not a great one. He's been stuck on bottom at times, but only against much more seasoned wrestlers. If Solecki can't get the fight down, that is when things will get interesting. His striking is still a bit rudimentary at times and he doesn't throw with volume either. His top game is probably the best overall skill that either fighter has and that is sort of what I'm banking on. Da Silva on the other hand hasn't shown me enough to make me lean his direction. Da Silva has had some wrestling success in the UFC, which does pose some concerns given Solecki's weakness from the bottom, but I can't rely on that. Da Silva actually showed some ability to strike when he fought Brad Riddell, but I have questions about that as well. Ultimately, I think Da Silva's potential cardio problems and his long layoff have me leaning Solecki, but it really could go either way. There's so little separation of the two in my mind. I think I trust Solecki's top game more than anything else and that is what I'm going with.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz defeats Felice Herrig Result: Kowalkiewicz by sub (6-2)
This is an odd fight. Both of these women are coming off of multiple losses in a row and look to be close to calling it a career. This is a rematch though and Kowalkiewicz got the win in that fight. In my mind, this fight will probably play out on the feet. Herrig will attempt takedowns, but she doesn't hit them with great efficiency. Karolina also has pretty solid takedown defense for the most part. If this plays out entirely on the feet, then I think Karolina has a clear advantage. I think she is the more skilled striker and will throw with more volume. Herrig throws with ok volume, but she has the worse striking defense. Herrig is also coming off of multiple injuries and hasn't fought in two years at this point. Kowalkiewicz hasn't looked great since their first fight, but she's at least been active. Herrig also hasn't looked great and we haven't seen her in so long that I don't really know what to expect from her at this stage. I have to give Kowalkeiwicz the edge here despite what we've seen from her in the recent past.
Alonzo Menifield defeats Askar Mozharov Result: Menifield by KO (7-2)
I don't know what is going on with this fight. Tapology is changing Mozharov's record by the day and, based on the video that I have seen on him, I'm not sure what to expect. I'm not really even sure how this fight got made. Mozharov is an extremely raw fighter. He has only fought very inexperienced competition and even then, his record isn't great. Almost all of his fights end in the first round because he either destroys people who aren't real fighters or he fights someone who is and he loses pretty quickly. He does seem to have power that you have to respect, but I don't know what he can do besides that. With all of that said, I don't know how he gets his debut against Alonzo Menifield. Menifield isn't going to fight for the belt or anything, but he is very safe in his place on the roster. As long as he doesn't get knocked out in the first two minutes, I think he should win this fight pretty easily. He could probably win this fight in any realm, but if he chose to wrestle, that would be his clearest path to victory. This is another lock for me and I really don't know how this matchup came to be. Menifield has real power and is a decent striker as well. As long as he doesn't walk into a knockout punch, I think he is a safe pick.
Ode Osbourne defeats Zarrukh Adashev Result: Osbourne by KO (8-2)
This is a bit of an interesting fight and I've been a bit higher on Osbourne than most. Osbourne is a solid striker and has shown to have good power for the weight class. Osbourne will also have a massive reach advantage that I think may end up being the difference. He throws with decent volume, even though he does absorb a bit more damage than you would like. Adashev is a solid fighter, but I think this is a bad matchup for him. He has decent power, but his striking volume is a bit low. Neither fighter will likely be looking for takedowns, even though Osbourne has here and there. The concern is that even though Osbourne has a huge reach advantage, he doesn't always fight from range. It seems like he feels more comfortable swinging in close quarters, which will minimize that advantage. Ultimately, Adashev has been hurt quite a few times and I think Osbourne will be able to hurt him if he connects. Given the reach, Adashev will have to take some shots to land his own and I don't really think that is a good recipe for success for him.
Poliano Botelho defeats Karine Silva Result: Silva by sub (8-3)
This feels like another fight that no matter what I do it will be wrong. Silva doesn't have a long history of fighting great competition and relies on getting submissions in order to win. She goes for a lot of leg locks and heel hooks, which sometimes sees her give up position. On the feet, she can handle herself, but it is her weaker skill. Botelho isn't an amazing fighter necessarily, but I think she may be the better pure wrestler and could keep the fight standing without having to worry about the submissions. She will have a pretty clear advantage on the feet in my mind, which is where I expect a lot of her success to come. What makes this fight unpredictable is that neither has shown to have great cardio, so one of them could absolutely gas. Botelho isn't a horrible grappler either, she has been decent from top position at times. However, I think the clear path to victory for her is on the feet and I think she can find the win.
Michael Trizano defeats Lucas Almeida Result: Almeida by KO (8-4)
This is an uncomfortable pick for me. I think Trizano is the more skilled fighter, but his ability to win fights lacks at times. He is a bit of a slow paced striker who won't really get takedowns and isn't a finisher on the feet or the ground. That makes a matchup with a high volume striker like Almeida a bit worrisome. Almeida isn't a better striker, but he is willing to come forward and throw lots of shots with at least ok power. He isn't a great wrestler either, but he will attempt takedowns. Almeida is very wild on the feet, which leaves him open to absorbing a lot of damage. With Trizano being the clearly more technical fighter and striker, the counters should be open for him to land often and do damage. I think that will be the most impactful thing that happens and causes me to lean very slightly towards Trizano.
Movsar Evloev defeats Dan Ige Result: Evloev by decision (9-4)
This is a really unfortunate matchup for Dan Ige. Evloev is a really good wrestler and has an excellent top control game. He is more of a position over submission style of grappler and will use ground and pound enough to not risk having the fight stood up. His striking isn't awful either and his striking volume is decent enough to not get overwhelmed. His striking defense is really good though and he uses that to survive on the feet until he can get the fight down. Ige will be looking to keep this fight standing where he can use his fast and powerful boxing. He throws good combinations and has plenty of power for his size, but his grappling is going to cost him I think. Ige has struggled to grapple defensively and has been held down on more than a couple of occasions. He will have the advantage when the fight is at range, but I just don't think he can keep it there long enough to do real damage.
Alexander Volkov defeats Jairzinho Rozenstruik Result: Volkov by KO (10-4)
I like Volkov in this spot quite a bit. I think this matchup plays into his strengths very well. Volkov will have the reach advantage as he usually does and should be able to touch Rozenstruik early and often. His volume striking will be what carries him, if he gets the win. Rozenstruik is a low volume kick boxer who really only feels comfortable countering. If Volkov doesn't enter the pocket, I don't know that Rozenstruik will really force the issue. His knockout power is real, but he hasn't been aggressive enough in the past to make it count against the highest levels of the heavyweight division. I think this is a great matchup for Volkov as he'll be able to strike from the outside without having to worry about being taken down. The only threat Rozenstruik brings is the knockout threat, but as long as Volkov sticks to his game, he should minimize that pretty easily.
That’s it from me on this one. What do you guys think of the card? Who is your lock of the night? Leave all of your picks below. I’ll be back to update this and leave my new record after the card. Thanks for reading, have a gone one, and enjoy the card.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 10 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 132 - 74
Updated Year to Date Record: 142 - 78
After a bit of a cold streak, that's back to back solid showings, so I think it is safe to say we are back on track finally. We had a couple of things bounce our way and a few things go against us, so it probably all evened out on that front. We'll break down the wins and losses and start with the bad as we usually do.
Our first loss of the night came in the form of Andreas Michailidis, which I didn't feel great about to begin with. I had questions about Fakhretdinov and how he would look at this level and I still have some of those questions, but his grappling was a tad better than I thought and his cardio held up. Unfortunately for us, the cardio problems that Michailidis has after about 7-8 minutes are still there. Had he been able to keep up, it could've been an interesting fight, but he gassed out and wasn't able to get off his back for much of the second and third. Our next loss was Niklas Stolze and he just didn't look good at all. I thought he would be able to have more success in both the grappling and the striking and he just looked overmatched. St. Denis displayed his toughness again and other than the knee, he basically dominated from start to finish. We didn't lose again until Poliana Botelho lost to Karine Silva. This was the one that hurt because I feel like I had the fight diagnosed so well and it just went the other way. Other than a submission, I felt like Botelho had her covered, but she ended up getting knocked down into a takedown attempt then tapped with less than 10 seconds left in the round. It was a really nice win for Silva in her debut though. Our final loss came in the form of Michael Trizano losing to Lucas Almeida. This one was a bit frustrating as well as the fight played out exactly how I feared it would. Trizano looked to be better, but he was so unwilling to get into the fight that he fell behind pretty quickly. Almeida also looked to be a bit faster, which I didn't anticipate. Almeida's volume and pressure forced Trizano to start trading in the pocket and it didn't end well for him. All in all, those aren't too bad. Some were underdogs and others were pretty close in my mind, so I'm not too upset by any of them. The Stolze one is concerning process wise as I just completely missed the boat on that one.
We had a lot more success than failure on this one though, which is always a good feeling. Erin Blanchfield continues her rise up the flyweight division and I'm excited to see how far she can go. Aldrich actually looked good very early in that fight before Blanchfield got the choke, so I'll still be keeping an eye on her development as well. We got the benefit of an interesting decision that saw Jeff Molina get the win and I thought Zhumagulov won that fight in real time. It was a lot of just pushing Molina against the cage from Zhalgas though, so I guess they gave the edge to some of Molina's punches, but I'm not sure I agree still. Tony Gravely got the quick knockout, so we really didn't get to see that fight fully play out. Munoz was basically submission or bust in that fight and while Gravely has had his issues with being submitted, I thought he was pretty clearly the better fighter, but I didn't expect it to end that quickly. Damon Jackson handled his short notice replacement like we expected him to. He's so big for the division and his grappling/cardio combination is tough for fighters his size on a full camp. Giving him someone who is on short notice without a training camp coming up a weight class was unlikely to provide any other result. The fact that Argueta made it to decision is probably the best we could have expected from him. Joe Solecki got a bit of a weird win. Da Silva had a point taken after he kept grabbing the cage with his toes. I thought it might have ended as a draw, but Solecki was able to edge out what would have been a close win had the point not been taken. I'm not sure what to make of Solecki in terms of where he will ultimately end up in his career, but his grappling is clearly for real. I said it in the write up, but I have no idea how Karolina Kowalkiewicz was the underdog here. I think everyone on the Herrig side was just blindly fading KK and it didn't make sense to me. KK seemed to be the better fighter everywhere and it was a great bounce back win for her. Also, congratulations to Felice Herrig on her retirement and making it all the way back from several injuries. Best of luck to her in whatever she has planned for the rest of her life. Alonzo Menifield shouldn't have been in that fight. That was just a level of competition that he has no business being in the cage with at this point. He was simply the better fighter in all phases. After he took the fight to the ground the first time, it was going to take all of Mazharov's energy to get back up. He easily got the second takedown and transitioned to the crucifix where he got the finish. Let's get him someone who is actually close to his level next time. I was a bit nervous about Ode Osbourne as Adashev had the technical advantage, but the length and power of Osbourne were just too much. The first clean shot ended the night and I think Osbourne has the natural talent to be a real problem in the division, he just needs to refine his skills to get more consistent performances. Movsar Evloev had maybe the most impressive performance on the entire card with his best win to date over Dan Ige. Evleov had the obvious grappling advantage, but his ability to outwork Ige on the feet was eye opening. I'm going to talk more about him in the round up post that will come out on Tuesday. The final win was Alexander Volkov and I thought he should have been a bigger favorite. I feel like Volkov is so steady that my opinion of him really doesn't change regardless of what the result of his previous fight was. I was a bit down on Jairzinho though after a few performances that saw him get a bit frozen on the feet. Even though he lost, I was at least encouraged that he came out a bit more aggressive and was willing to exchange and try to let his power work. It didn't work out for him this time, but I think a more aggressive Rozenstruik is ultimately a good thing for him going forward.
Overall, it was a good night of fights and one that I really needed after a long week. This coming week will have the normal lead up posts to UFC 275, but the following week I don't think I'll be posting. I am leaving on vacation this Wednesday, but I'm going to have all of this weeks stuff done as normal. I'll have the review of Volkov vs Rozenstruik, the whole card round up, and then previews for Joanna/Weili, Shevchenko/Santos, and then Glover/Jiri. Then the picks on Saturday. I won't have anything the following week though. I'll get home late that Friday, so I will have the picks up on the Saturday though if all goes well. Anyways, thanks for reading and have a good one.
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