After some down weeks, we're looking to bounce back and put together a solid night of picks from start to finish. If I'm being honest, this card doesn't feel like one that is going to be easy to do well on, but I'm still trying to put forth a solid night. While the card may end up being a tough one, it should be a good one to watch. It isn't the best card I've ever seen, but there are plenty of interesting fights that I'm looking forward to. With the UFC, any card that is headlined by two fighters who are actually trending in the right direction is good enough for me. The main events have been a lot better recently, but I know we have another Thiago Santos main event coming up, which I haven't understood the last three times we've gotten it. Anyways, the last couple of fights on this one are really interesting and I'm looking forward to seeing how they play out. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's go.
Jihn Yu Frey defeats Vanessa Demopoulos Result: Demopoulos by decision (0-1)
First fight of the night and I'm already second guessing it. If you're a consistent follower of my picks, you'll know that I much prefer high activity and output fighters as that is a much more consistent approach to picking up wins. Jihn Yu Frey is the exact opposite of that. She is an extremely low output fighter both in the striking and grappling. However, I think her skills are actually pretty solid, she just doesn't use them enough. She's a technical striker on the feet and is at least competent in the grappling. Demopoulos is much the opposite. She is an aggressive grappler, but her pure wrestling isn't really the best right now. She is live for a submission, but I'm not sure if she can get the fight grounded. On the feet, she's not a great striker and is a bit hittable, but she is going to come forward and be aggressive. Even though she's not the better fighter, I think there is at least a chance that Demopoulos wins this fight just based on her willingness to actually engage and throw. However, I have to lean Frey as she is the more talented fighter everywhere in my opinion and her 6 inch reach advantage will be enough to limit the volume from Demopoulos.
Mario Bautista defeats Brian Kelleher Result: Bautista by sub (1-1)
As with most Kelleher fights, this should be a fun one while it lasts. In my estimation, Bautista should be able to win this fight, but Kelleher has made a career on winning fights he was supposed to lose, so...Kelleher lives by the sword and dies by the sword. He is hyper aggressive and that is what gives him a chance in these fights that he should otherwise lose. It also exposes him to a lot of damage and he can be finished because of it. On the feet, Kelleher is game to come forward and throw hard, but superior strikers with more advanced footwork should be able to handle him there. Kelleher is a fine wrestler, but unspectacular. His real danger comes from his submissions, but I think Bautista should be at a level where he doesn't stick his head in a guillotine attempt. On the feet, I think the volume, power, and technical ability of Bautista will be enough. Kelleher's striking defense is probably the weakest part of his game and he'll just get hit too much in this one.
Cody Durden defeats JP Buys Result: Durden by KO (2-1)
This is kind of a weird one. We have a fight between two guys who are on the fringe of the UFC roster who both have big cardio problems. If both guys are going to gas out, I guess I have to go with who has a more complete skillset and that is Durden in this case. When he's not tired, Durden is actually a competent enough fighter to have a place on the roster, but he only maintains that for about two rounds. He's an ok striker, but can be exposed by fighters who are more natural on their feet. Overall, he absorbs more strikes than he lands. He is a more natural wrestler and he shoots for, and gets, a lot of takedowns. Buys on the other hand is a much weaker striker and has had some questions about his chin as well. He is also more of a grappler, but he isn't exactly a natural wrestler. He is very reliant on submissions, which I don't think is a great thing in this fight. I wouldn't be shocked if he submitted Cody Durden after he got tired, but that appears to be his only way to win. Buys is also going to gas out rather quickly, so I can't end up picking the guy with cardio problems and one way to win.
Sergey Morozov defeats Raulian Paiva Result: Morozov by decision (3-1)
I can already see this one looking bad tomorrow morning. This sort of strikes me as a fight that Morozov is winning up until he's not. I think Morozov is a pretty solid fighter everywhere. He's an ok striker who may be a little low output at times, but other times he's ok. I think I would expect him to have the edge in strikes landed from range in this one. His main strength is his wrestling and he is going to attempt a ton of takedowns and probably get a fair amount of them in this one. My questions for him surround his limited athleticism and some questions surrounding his chin. I wouldn't even say his chin is questionable just yet, but it is something to keep an eye on. With Paiva, I think my biggest reason for not picking him is that I don't know what he does extremely well. He is competent enough everywhere, but he doesn't really have a skill where he can just pull away in fights. He is a decent striker and has pretty decent power, but he can be inaccurate at times and is extremely hittable himself. In the grappling, he is not a great defensive wrestler and I expect him to hit the mat a bunch of times. He does however have a pretty good get up game, so he should be able to work his way back up. Paiva could certainly get a knockout here, but I think that path still leads him to victory a minority of the time. I think Morozov has the more clear paths to victory and I have to go with him.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke defeats TJ Brown Result: Nuerdanbieke by decision (4-1)
This fight is something else. I have almost no idea how this one is going to play out. With that said, TJ Brown is the guy who I feel more confident that I know what I'm going to get from him. He is going to strike with decent volume and he is going to try to wrestle. He will attempt a lot of takedowns and get them at a solid enough rate. My concerns for Brown are that he has shown problems when it comes to taking damage and how his chin can hold up. On the ground, he also has a tendency to lose positions sometimes. Shayilan on the other hand is extremely low volume on the feet. He essentially limits himself to throwing wild powerful hooks and hoping for the best. In any other fight, I would say he could be dominated on the feet, but Brown seems like the guy who could just walk into one of those shots and go out. Shayilan is also a willing wrestler, but he also ends up losing his positions at times. I think Brown is probably the safer side to be on, but both of these fighters are inconsistent enough and have enough questions surrounding their games that I'm taking a chance here.
Tafon Nchukwi defeats Carlos Ulberg Result: Ulberg by KO (4-2)
This is an interesting fight. Nchukwi is coming off of a fight that he was winning until he walked into a flying knee and got finished. He's not the most amazing fighter in the world, but he does a lot of good things. He's a pretty solid guy with good strength and he throws a lot of strikes. He can work well in the clinch and use his decent power and good volume to really tire his opponents and beat them down over the course of the entire 15 minutes. Ulberg is much more of a traditional kick boxer and needs this fight to be at range. If the fight is at distance, Ulberg will probably be ok. My questions with him come with his cardio. We saw him tire and then get knocked out against Nzechukwu and then in his last fight he tried to preserve cardio and he basically did nothing against Cherant. Ulbert certainly could land the shot that knocks Nchukwi out, but if he doesn't, I think Tafon really puts it on him volume wise and overwhelms him. Nchukwi's volume and strength in the clinch should get it done for him here.
Chris Curtis defeats Rodolfo Vieira Results: Curtis by decision (5-2)
This is a tough one for me. Vieira comes into this fight with his absolutely world class BJJ and questions everywhere else. I think he is an ok wrestler, but not necessarily an amazing one. On the feet, he is low output and could improve defensively, but considering striking is far from his main discipline, it could be way worse. Curtis on the other hand is experiencing way different results in the UFC than he has elsewhere. He's finding knockouts very easily, even though I wouldn't have told you that he has more than requisite level power. The concern for Curtis is that he has been a weak grappler over the course of his career. A lot of his losses see him being taken down over and over again. Vieira is going to try and if he does, he brings a different level of BJJ than Curtis has ever seen. The big elephant in the room is Vieira's cardio. We saw him gas out against Anthony Hernandez to the point where he basically was laying on the mat and unable to get up at the start of round 2. If Curtis can make him work hard in the first round and survive the ground exchanges, he can probably gas him and get the finish. It will come down to if he can stay standing long enough in the first to give himself a chance. If he's on his back with 3+ minutes to go, it won't be looking good, but if he can stay standing for 3.5-4 minutes in the first, he might be ok.
Umar Nurmagomedov defeats Nate Maness Result: Nurmagomedov by decision (6-2)
I'm not really sure how or why this fight was made. I'm not sure how this is progression for Umar after beating Kelleher, but this is another fight that he should win. Umar will more than likely have the advantage everywhere here. Maness isn't a particularly great striker and absorbs noticeably more than he lands. He also just absorbs too many strikes in general. Maness is a decent enough wrestler, but I don't think he will be better there or as an overall grappler than Umar. Umar should have the advantage everywhere and it is just a matter of how he decides to finish it off.
Christos Giagos defeats Thiago Moises Result: Moises by sub (6-3)
I'm not sure why the betting line for this one is so wide. This is kind of a weird fight and I'm here for it. I'm a bit lower on Moises than most, but I think he is more ordinary than someone who was recently inside the top 15. Moises is a pretty good grappler and is a solid enough striker when it is a slower paced fight on the feet. Moises tends to struggle whenever someone can put on the back foot and really take the fight to him and, if nothing else, Giagos will do that. Giagos isn't a great striker himself, but he is going to come forward and throw hard shots. He may also be the better pure wrestler, even though Moises will have the overall grappling advantage. My concern with Giagos is that he has had problems with his cardio after the first round or so, but I'm not sure Moises is the guy to expose that. Even if Giagos does slow down, Moises has never been the guy to really push the pace and overwhelm anyone, so when Giagos does slow, I don't think it will be as detrimental as it could be against a different opponent. I think Giagos ability to have Moises going backwards will really work well for him and he could even finish him early.
Josh Parisian defeats Alan Baudot Result: Parisian by KO (7-3)
A heavyweight fight that is an absolute mess has become a staple of UFC Fight Night main cards and this week is no exception. Baudot is 0-3 in the UFC and I guess if there's anything I can say it is that he throws with decent power and good volume for heavyweight. When it comes to Parisian, I can really only say the same. Parisian has a win over Roque Martinez, who is at least real competition, so he has that going for him. I think Parisian may just be a tad more natural and move a little bit better. He may have the grappling advantage in this one as well. This is really splitting hairs, but I guess I'll lean Parisian's way.
Neil Magny defeats Shavkat Rakhmonov Result: Rakhmonov by sub (7-4)
Call me contrarian, but I think Shavkat being a -500 favorite over Neil Magny after beating Carlston Harris is a bit of a leap. Shavkat may very well be that guy and it wouldn't surprise me if he was, but I think just assuming he is isn't the way to go about it. He has good grappling and decent striking, but he's been very low output so far in his career and he's never been 3 full rounds. Magny is going to push a pace and he won't get tired even as the fight gets late. Magny isn't the best grappler in the world, but he is at least ok there. I just wonder how Shavkat will be able to deal with the length, volume, and overall cardio of Neil Magny. Magny is aging, so maybe he just doesn't have it anymore, but this is the test that I want to see Shavkat pass before I really buy into him as a title challenger in the somewhat near future.
Mateusz Gamrot defeats Arman Tsarukyan Result: Gamrot by decision (8-4)
There's just something about how these two matchup that makes me want to lean towards Gamrot. I think he is the more sure thing in this one and I like his technical boxing on the feet as well as his more consistent cardio output. Tsarukyan will look good early in this one, but I just can't be sure that he holds up over the entire 25 minutes. Even when he's fresh, I expect this fight to be pretty close. If Gamrot is going to be at an advantage in rounds 4 and 5, he only needs to edge out one of the first 3. If Tsarukyan's cardio is fine, I'll probably be wrong, but I have to go with what I've seen so far. Gamrot is the more technical striker in my estimation and he is the one who will wrestle with more volume. This should be a close fight and a really good one at that.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions for the card? Which fight or performance are you most looking forward to? Leave your thoughts, comments, and predictions below. I'll be back to update this after the card is finished. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 153 - 91
Updated Year to Date Record: 161 - 95
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