Last week was the first card where I ever added the betting stuff to it and it was a lot of work, but it was fun. We did ok on the picks and ended up in the positives on our bets, so I'll consider that a win. This week we are back in London, which is always a good time. Upon first glance, this should be an event that is a lot more fun to watch than it will be to bet. So many of these lines have been juiced into oblivion and I really don't feel great enough to play the other side on a lot of them. I'm excited for the main even though as that is really the only fight with real stakes. If Chris Curtis wins then that will be a big deal, but a win for Hermansson probably doesn't do a whole lot other than get him off of a losing streak. There's a lot more fun to be had this weekend than true high level competition, but this is ultimately an entertainment product right? Let's have some fun and get into it.Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom.
Nicholas Dalby defeats Claudio Silva Result: Dalby by decision (1-0)
This is sort of a strange fight to start the card. I like Dalby here as he's probably just a tad better and he's a lot younger. He should have an overall athleticism advantage as well. Dalby will be looking to strike in this one and he should be better there. He doesn't throw with tremendous volume, but he doesn't absorb all that much either. Silva is starting to get up there in age, but he is still going strong. He will be looking to grapple in this one and I do imagine that if he can get this fight down, he will have an advantage. The problem for me is that Silva isn't the best pure wrestler and has struggled at times to take down fighters who I thought should have been easier for him to take down than Dalby will be. Dalby doesn't do much offensive grappling, but I think he is decent from a defensive perspective. He has ok takedown defense, but also is able to get up off the bottom fairly consistently. I would be surprised if Silva could get Dalby down, but I would be even more surprised if he could hold him down and actually do something with it. I think Dalby keeps this standing and if its there, he should come out on top. Silva is down to come forward and be aggressive on the feet, but I think Dalby is the cleaner boxer and should land with more impact as well.
Bets to consider: Silva ML +198, Dalby by decision +150, FGTD -118
This is sort of a tough fight to bet because there is some degree of unpredictability when it comes to fighters approaching 40 years old. If you're looking for a simple money line bet, I think Silva has to be the side. He is aggressive and he is a decent grappler, so it isn't like he's completely helpless here. This is more about Dalby for me though. He just isn't the kind of fighter who should be -250 against almost anyone who is truly UFC level. I don't think Dalby has the kind of power where you feel great about a finish and he doesn't throw enough volume where you feel like he can just get a clear and clean 30-27. Even though I expect Dalby to win at a decent rate, this line is just too wide for his style. I think there is a bit of value on Silva, but I'm not running to the window to bet on someone at his age in a fight like this. I think Dalby by decision and fight goes the distance are much more reasonable plays. Silva's best chance for a finish is by submission, but Dalby has pretty good submission defense historically and I'm not convinced Silva can even get this fight down to begin with. For the fight to get to the cards and have Dalby win by decision, the biggest concern is Silva's age and cardio. Silva doesn't have the deepest gas tank and I worry that he may just completely gas and get knocked out late. There is also the question of where his durability is at now and I think that may be enough for me to just pass on the fight as a whole. Dalby round 3 or decision is +105 right now, so maybe that could be an option as well.
Mandy Bohm defeats Victoria Leonardo Result: Leonardo by decision (1-1)
This is a fight and a half here. The fact that this fight is on this card, but Jack Shore vs Ricky Simon happened on the prelims of a Long Island card is mind blowing to me. This is essentially a coin flip for me. I think Bohm may have a slight edge on the feet? I think she is a bit more technical and if Leonardo is just going to charge forward, she could walk right into some counters. I also like Bohm's work in the clinch and I think that may be the best place for her to be in this fight. Leonardo on the other hand is probably going to be looking to initiate grappling exchanges because if she gets on top, this fight is probably over. Bohm has struggled on the bottom in the past and top position is probably the strongest area of Leonardo's game. My concern for Leonardo is that I don't think her striking is all that great, I don't really think her wrestling is all that great, and I think she's limited athletically. Leonardo is going to be aggressive on the feet, but she is going to get hit a ton. Bohm also gets hit a ton standing, but I lean her way in terms of technical striking. I don't think Leonardo is a good enough wrestler to get her down in open space, which means they're going to end up clinched along the cage. I think that is where Bohm will be at her strongest here. That sort of leaves Leonardo unable to get the fight down and we probably get a sloppy distance striking battle from there. This is an extremely high variance fight. I'll lean towards Bohm to keep it standing and edge out a decision.
Bets to consider: TKO props (each fighter is +1200, fight to end by TKO is +700)
The fact that so many people are so passionate about this fight is kind of weird to me. So many bettors on MMA twitter are pounding the table for Leonardo here and I just don't really get it. I suppose if you were early on this line and got your bet in when Leonardo was around +130 then that's fine, but betting either of these women at anywhere near even is basically asking to have your heart broken in my opinion. For every weakness you can point out about one, you can easily point to something else in the other. I cannot stress enough that unless you are a complete degenerate, do not bet this fight. If you must, I think the KO/TKO props are at least kind of interesting for a flyer. If Leonardo can get on top, she can probably finish the fight there as Bohm has looked kind of lost on the bottom at times. Similarly, Leonardo has some questionable tendencies in her striking defense and has gotten blasted a fair amount. I could see her just walking into some shots and getting countered badly. Unless either woman drifts back to the +130 range, just save your money for another day. At the end of the day, this is a low level women's MMA fight and there is just way too much variance to have any degree of confidence on either side. Proceed with caution if you're tailing someone who thinks they have this fight nailed down with absolute certainty.
Jai Herbert defeats Kyle Nelson Result: Herbert by decision (2-1)
This fight should be kind of interesting for as long as it lasts. I ultimately like the Herbert side because of his overall striking game and size advantage. He has good power and should be the better striker technically in this fight. Nelson doesn't have great striking defense and has had some durability concerns in the past. He is coming up in weight after a long time off for this fight, so maybe the time off and not having to cut the extra weight will help that a bit. My biggest concern for Nelson is that he has shown to have about 5-7 minutes of cardio and if he can't finish the fight by then, he is going to be very vulnerable. With his striking defense, if he gasses against Herbert, he probably ends up getting finished late. Nelson does have a path to win this fight though. Nelson is pretty aggressive on the feet and he's going to throw hooks with a lot of gas on them. We've seen Herbert be folded badly multiple times now, so his durability isn't the best either. Nelson is also a moderately decent grappler and Herbert has struggled badly to keep fights standing. He is ok off of his back and can work back to his feet, but as long as he has the energy, Nelson can probably get a takedown whenever he wants. Ultimately, I think Herbert's size and striking wins out. Even if he does get grappled early, I don't think Nelson has the cardio to keep that up and once Herbert starts landing, I don't know that Nelson will be able to take more than a few clean shots.
Bets to consider: FDNGTD -250, Nelson by KO/TKO +600
Like most fights on this card, the money line is just too wide for the favorite. Herbert should be favored here, but he can't be sitting at -290 just out of principle. He has too many holes in his game, including his own cardio concerns as well as his chin, to be that big of a favorite against someone who hits as hard as Nelson. Much like I just said about Silva earlier, while it is wide, I'm not really running to the window to bet someone with durability concerns and 5 minutes of cardio, even if there is some degree of value on his ML. If you're looking to bet Nelson, I think just going right to his KO line is much better. I don't think he's going to submit Herbert and I don't think this fight has a great chance of going the distance regardless of who wins, so get the +600 number. -250 is a big number for fight doesn't go the distance, but I kind of think it is worth it here. Both fighters are going to try for the knockout, can be knocked out themselves, and have cardio problems. The fight has such a slim margin for going the distance that I think -250 is a playable number or can be parlayed.
Muhammad Mokaev defeats Charles Johnson Result: Mokaev by decision (3-1)
I can't say I knew too much about Charles Johnson coming into his UFC debut, but when I started watching some video of him, I found myself wondering why he hasn't been in the UFC before now. For a division like flyweight that needs fighters, Johnson looks like a guy who would certainly have a place and I think is a real UFC fighter. He seems like a decent striker and is going to throw a lot of volume. It seems like he is just an ok defensive wrestler, but has shown an ability to scramble and is solid enough off of his back. My concern for him is obviously getting taken down, but especially off of his kicks. He throws a decent amount of kicks and I worry that Mokaev is just going to wait until he can catch one and then get the fight to the ground. Mokaev comes into this fight as more of a grappler and he will likely have an advantage there. His wrestling will be his biggest advantage, but once the fight is grounded, he can be a bit loose positionally and hasn't always held guys down as well as you would expect. On the feet, Mokaev shows skill, but he's just very raw. He's so young that it is reasonable to expect him to improve literally day by day. I think this fight is going to be way more competitive than a lot of people are giving it credit for, but I do think Mokaev's grappling probably gets him a win more often than not.
Bets to consider: Johnson ML +360, FGTD +132, Mokaev by decision +190
I think Johnson money line is a very reasonable play here. Mokaev being -500 suggests that he should just run over Johnson with little to no issue and I don't really see that happening. I think Johnson is a much more refined fighter and even if he loses, I think he can make this an actual fight. For as long as the fight is standing, I think Johnson will have a clear advantage there. The question is how long it actually remains standing, which may not be all too long. Mokaev can, should, and probably will wrestle him a good bit, but Johnson has shown some decent grappling ability. Mokaev should certainly be a favorite, but I think anything over -200 is wide and that is being generous. I feel confident in saying that this line is just incorrect, even if Mokaev still wins. If you're looking to play the Mokaev side, I think by decision is the route to do so. I would be stunned if Mokaev can knock him out standing and I think Johnson has shown submission defense that is good enough to avoid being stopped. Even if Mokaev just blankets him, I think it ultimately gets to the scorecards, so getting that at +190 instead of -500 is a much easier pill to swallow. I thought the fight goes the distance number would be a better number, but getting plus money at men's flyweight is probably a decent enough number to just take it without even thinking. I just explained why I don't think Mokaev can finish Johnson. His grappling is decent and I think his scrambling is good enough to avoid any position that is too dangerous. On the feet, I don't think Johnson knocks Mokaev out either. Johnson is a decent striker, but this is men's flyweight and he doesn't have wild power or anything like that. I actually think this fight goes the distance number has a nice bit of value.
Jonathan Pearce defeats Makwan Amrikhani Result: Pearce by KO (4-1)
This feels like a dangerous spot. Pearce should win this fight at a pretty decent rate, so I have to go with him. He's a better all around fighter and has significantly more ways to win. JSP is typically a wrestler and will look to take the fight down and control things from the top. He has good cardio and he will attempt as many takedowns as he needs to in order to get the win. On the feet, Pearce is a little too hittable, but I don't think that will hurt him here. He throws with good volume and has pretty decent power when he sits down on his shots. My biggest concern for JSP is that he does have a tendency to dive into some submission attempts and that is Makwan's clear way to win. He has some slick submission ability and is very live to find a guillotine or D'arce choke here. The reason I'm not even more concerned about this is because Makwan only has about a round of cardio. After the first 5 minutes, Makwan is going to slow down and even if he does have a good first round, I don't think he can keep up with JSP's pace. Makwan is actually a pretty decent wrestler, but I don't think he's on JSP's level there. Ultimately, as long as JSP doesn't stick his neck into a choke, I think this is his fight.
Bets to consider: Pearce 3rd rd or dec +165, Makwan by sub +360, Makwan by 1st rd sub +800
This money line situation isn't as ridiculous as a lot of the previous fights, but I still don't really think it is playable. I think Pearce at -200 or more or less right. His tendency to stick his head into chokes combined with Makwan's submission ability is enough to make me not want to play him at that number. However, I think most of JSP's wins see him look a lot better than just -200. For me, the way to play JSP is to do so by 3rd round or decision. You're still getting a solid plus money number, but covering as many bases as possible. Playing him just by decision is +270, but with Makwan's cardio, I think JSP could just break him late in the fight and get a late TKO. Pearce has good power and Makwan has been hurt on the feet before as well. If you want the Makwan side, early submission type bets are the way to go. By submission in general is +360, which I think is ok value, but nothing too crazy. I think a flyer on that or even by first round submission is an ok play with a small bet. Makwan will have his best chance to win early, so +800 for a first round submission I think is an ok flyer to take.
Nathaniel Wood defeats Charles Rosa Result: Wood by decision (5-1)
This is the fight on the card that I think I feel the best about. Frankly, I'm not really sure how Rosa wins this fight. I think Wood has the advantage on the feet here. He is a good boxer with decent enough power and excellent volume. His striking defense could be improved, but more on that later. Wood is also a competent wrestler and I think he should have the advantage there as well. Rosa is a moderately technical striker, but he really doesn't have the pop on his strikes to do a ton of damage. That is why I said before that I'm not as concerned about Wood's defense here. I don't think Rosa can hurt him and I don't think he can beat Wood on volume either. Rosa doesn't do a ton of offensive wrestling and he has trouble stopping takedowns as well. If there is one spot for him to pick up a win here, I suppose it would be a submission from his guard. He is very active at throwing up submissions once taken down, but he hasn't had all that much success with them. He's hit a few, but not enough to where it justifies how willing he is to accept bottom position and just fight from his guard. Wood has been submitted in the past, but none of them are all that recent, so I'm not even all that concerned about it. Wood should largely be able to handle Rosa everywhere, but I think the path of least resistance would be in the wrestling.
Bets to consider: Wood by decision -130, FGTD -176
I don't particularly see any value in playing the Rosa side here as I think his path to victory is so thin. Wood's money line is extremely juiced and is fluctuating around -600 or so. I think playing Wood by decision or just the fight to go the distance is really the only way to go and they're both good numbers. I don't think Rosa is going to submit Wood off of his back and Rosa has shown to have elite level submission defense. He has held bottom position against some really high level grapplers for extended minutes and not been submitted, so I don't think Wood is going to be that guy. Rosa isn't going to knock Wood out as he just doesn't have the power. The one way this fight does get finished is if Wood can find a knockout, which is somewhat possible, but Rosa limits exchanges so well, that I don't find it likely. Rosa wants to fight from the outside and he isn't going to just plant his feet in the pocket and trade. I think that largely leads this fight to go to the scorecards at a really high rate. I think both of these are reasonable plays.
Marc Diakiese defeats Damir Hadzovic Result: Diakiese by decision (6-1)
This is a fight that I should probably have more confidence in then I actually do. Diakiese is the better all around fighter in this one. Diakiese is a pretty good athlete and has pretty nice explosion in most of his techniques. He is a moderately technical striker as well and is pretty diverse in all of the strikes that he can use. His main problem on the feet is that he is historically a bit low volume. His path to victory in this one will be to wrestle though. Hadzovic isn't much of a grappler and doesn't have much in the way of takedown defense. Once he's taken down, he sometimes struggles to get up and can get stuck on his back for long stretches. If he can keep it standing, then it should be a decent opportunity for him. He's a pretty solid striker and should be able to throw more volume than Diakiese. I say I should be more confident than I am because Diakiese should be able to control Hadzovic on the ground with very little issue. My issue is that Diakiese isn't always reliable to fight with the best game plan or to do so effectively. Sometimes he just doesn't fight up to his skill level and loses rounds or fights to guys that he shouldn't. If Diakiese chooses to stand, this fight will be a pretty close one, but if he wrestles, he should have no issue. If I trusted him to come out and shoot takedowns from start to finish, I think he easily wins.
Bets to consider: Diakiese by sub or decision +100
This is kind of a tough one to bet for me. I don't really feel like I can bet Diakiese at -375 because he just has these fights where sometimes he just isn't the best version of himself. At the same time, I can't bet Hadzovic at +285 and just hope we get the bad version of Diakiese. Trying to pinpoint a method or whether the fight goes the distance or not is equally as difficult. If Diakiese takes the path and has this fight grounded, I kind of think it goes the distance. Diakiese by decision is +130 and by sub or decision is +100. Inside the distance is +140. I don't really know. I think it is best just to steer clear. If you're looking to have some fun, Diakiese by sub is +1300, so maybe that is worth a very small shot just to see what happens.
Mason Jones defeats Ludovit Klein Result: Klein by decision (6-2)
This is kind of an interesting fight. Mason Jones should be able to get this win at a pretty decent rate. Klein is a pretty decent technical striker and has a reasonable amount of power that he can use to finish fights. I think the issue for Klein in this fight is that he really needs fights to stay as a display of martial arts technique, which Mason Jones isn't going to allow. Jones is going to come forward and throw lots of volume with pretty good power. He's also a better wrestler than I think he gives himself credit for and I would like to see him use it a lot more. Even though he uses more of a pressure style and is fine standing and brawling, I think Jones is a moderately technical boxer. In this one, he needs to come forward and make this a true fight and not just a mixed martial arts competition. If he can do that, that forces Klein out of his element. When the fight breaks down and turns into a scrap, Klein sort of breaks down as well. He likes to be calculated on the outside and have a slow paced kickboxing match, but when the fight gets into the pocket, it's like he still tries to fight like he's on the outside and it just doesn't work for him very well. The path Klein does have is from a knockout as Jones doesn't defend strikes particularly well. He gets hit way too much and Klein does have nice power. Jones does have a pretty decent chin and I think he should be able to come away with the win here.
Bets to consider: Jones ML -385, Klein by KO/TKO +600
I honestly think this is a pass spot. I looked for a long time to try and find something to bet on this one and there really isn't much there. All of the props of win methods aren't really all that interesting to me. If I felt more confident in Jones wrestling I would be willing to try fight goes the distance at plus money, and maybe I end up taking a flyer on it, but I wouldn't feel good about it. You could also go Jones by points at +200, but if he keeps it standing, I kind of think he knocks him out. Despite this being a huge number, I think you could justify actually playing Jones if you really wanted to, but I think it is just a pass. If you like the Klein side, I assume you like him by knockout at +600, but that is nothing more than a flyer. I really don't even have a fun take or bet to consider all that heavily on this one.
Volkan Oezdemir defeats Paul Craig Result: Oezdemir by decision (7-2)
This one hurts. It causes me physical discomfort to pick against Paul Craig, but I can't reasonably pick him here. I think Oezdemir is just too much of a better fighter. Craig doesn't do well on the feet and even though his stats aren't horrible, it really doesn't tell the whole story. Craig doesn't really have a whole lot of pop on his shots and he is very rudimentary with his striking. He doesn't have great defense on his feet either and can be hit without too much of an issue. His chin is just ok and he can be hurt with a good shot. Volkan is one of the better all around kickboxers in the division even at his age. He is both technical and reasonably powerful. Of course, the danger for Craig comes from his BJJ and ground game. He can submit virtually anyone in the world and pulls off more wild submissions than anyone in the sport. Submitting people from the guard, especially inside the top 10 of a division, isn't typically a reliable way to win, but I think Paul Craig may just be one of those guys who doesn't play by normal rules. What is worrisome is that Craig isn't a great wrestler. He is sort of just ok and Volkan has historically been pretty good at preventing takedowns. Unless Craig just pulls guard here, I don't see him being able to get this fight down. Volkan has a decent top game, so if that does happen, I would think he could be ok until he gets the opportunity to stand up. Nothing will surprise me with Paul Craig anymore, but I think his run may suffer a set back in this one.
Bets to consider: Oezdemir ML -152, Craig by sub +200
I think Craig is honestly getting a little too much love. I get that he has a funky style, does a lot of weird things, and generally wins fights that he shouldn't, but at this line, you almost have to play Volkan. Overall, I think he wins this fight probably close to 70-75% of the time having it lined here is honestly a bit surprising. Craig has a history of winning fights that he should lose 70+% of the time, but I don't think Oezdemir is the right guy for that. Unless Volkan is just cooked, I would be legitimately shocked if he doesn't win. Even further, I would be shocked if his win doesn't come via knockout, which is at +155. If you want to play Craig for the fun of it, you almost have to by submission. If the difference between his sub only and ML wasn't as big, I would say just take the ML incase something weird happens, but the difference between +200 and +124 is too great for me. If you want Craig, by sub is the only way in my opinion. If Volkan dives into Craig's guard and basically begs to be submitted like so many opponent's have in his recent run, then I guess he is just destined to win the title.
Molly McCann defeats Hannah Goldy Result: McCann by KO (8-2)
This fight is sort of strange for a couple of reasons. The first of which is I'm not really sure why the UFC made this unless they just want Molly to win in front of the London crowd again, which could be the beginning and end of it. In short, I expect Molly to win this fight without too much of an issue. Molly uses a brawling and volume heavy style to get her wins. She's a decent enough striker and she does her best work in the pocket. Her grappling is just sort of average. She can maybe get a takedown here, but she hasn't looked good when she's been on the bottom in her career. The problem for Goldy is that I don't think she can capitalize on the areas where Molly is weak. McCann isn't great on bottom, but Goldy really isn't a great wrestler and doesn't really attempt all that many takedowns. Molly takes a lot of damage, but Goldy isn't likely to just stand and trade with her. Goldy is more likely to try and skirt along the perimeter of the cage and throw single strikes and low kicks. That makes her path to victory incredibly narrow as she doesn't have a history of even attempting the requisite number of takedowns and she is almost assuredly going to get out landed in the standup. The styles play right into what Molly needs to do here.
Bets to consider: Goldy ML +320, McCann by decision -130
The second reason this fight is so strange is because of what the betting line is at. Molly McCann being a -430 favorite in principle is simply ridiculous. Molly is far too hittable to be that big of a favorite against anyone. She absorbs way too many strikes and has shown to be way too vulnerable on the ground to think she wins this fight at a high enough rate to actually obtain any value from that number. If you see McCann at -430 and just auto-bet the other side, I don't necessarily disagree with you. The problem is what I outlined before in that Goldy's chances are so slim. If I knew she was even going to attempt takedowns then I might be even slightly intrigued, but I'm not convinced and therefore not intrigued in the slightest. I think playing Molly by decision is a decent look though. I think I would say Molly wins this fight around 75-80% of the time and a vast majority of those come by decision. She throws good volume, but she isn't particularly explosive, so I don't think we see another knockout unless she does something crazy again. McCann by decision is a decent look in my opinion.
Alexander Gustafsson defeats Nikita Krylov Result: Krylov by KO (8-3)
This may be the hardest fight to predict on the entire card. That is mostly due to the fact that we have genuinely no idea what we're getting out of Gus in this fight. At his best, I think Gus wins this fight pretty easily. He would be a noticeably better striker with the takedown defense to keep it standing. Honestly, he may have just been the better overall wrestler. The problem is that we are several years removed from the best version of Gus. That leaves us to kind of wonder where exactly he is at both physically and mentally in his career. The one thing that has me positive coming into this is that he is back at 205 and looks to be in much better shape than he did for his one fight at heavyweight against Werdum. Krylov is a much more known commodity. He is an ok striker who likes a more range based style of attack. He just wants to touch his opponent and limit the amount of times he gets touched. I would think his plan coming into this one would be to grapple. It is the much safer option and given what we saw from Gus in his last fight, he may be more vulnerable there than we remembered. I still believe that Gus will be a better striker even if he isn't close to what he used to be. The key will be his ability to stuff takedowns and judging only by his physical condition coming into the fight, I'm banking on him being able to do it.
Bets to consider: Gustafsson ML +164, Krylov ITD +110
If you're looking for a money line play, I think Gus is the side. With all of the unknowns, I don't think laying -205 on Krylov is the way I'm looking to potentially lose money. If we're getting a respectable version of Gus here, I think this fight could be basically even. If we're getting an actual good version of Gus, then he should've probably been the favorite. Gus would have to really regressed in a horrible way to not have the striking advantage here and I think that is enough if you're looking to make a small play on him. I think this number is worth a shot that we're getting a decent version of Gustafsson. If you're banking on him being done, I think Krylov inside the distance is the way to go here. If we get a bad version of Gus, I think this fight probably isn't all that different than his last fight against Werdum or even his fight against Anthony Smith before that. If that is the version we get, I really don't think he can go the distance and that would be the play if you want to go with the Krylov side.
Jordan Leavitt defeats Paddy Pimblett Result: Pimblett by sub (8-4)
This is pretty much guaranteed to be weird. I haven't really talked about Paddy a whole lot on this blog because I'm not really sure what to make of him. On the feet, he's pretty aggressive, but that is really all I can say. He's not a great striker and hasn't historically found the knockout standing (his UFC debut is his only one). Defensively, he is very open to be hit as well. He is more known as a grappler, but his overall wrestling is just sort of ok in my opinion. Once he is on top is where he is very dangerous. He is both skilled and aggressive in looking for submissions from top position. However, I don't think his defensive grappling is all that special, outside of his submission defense. He got taken down in his last fight by Vargas, who is a much worse grappler than Leavitt is. Paddy also doesn't seem to be particularly dangerous from guard. He is sort of willing to accept bottom position at times. The downside of Paddy's aggression is that if the fight makes it out of the first round, he tends to slow down and becomes much more ordinary and can be wrestled and controlled somewhat easily. I ultimately think Leavitt is the better pure wrestler and that is why I want to go with him here. Leavitt is a decent enough wrestler and is a solid overall grappler in his own right. Like Paddy, he is most dangerous on top and can find submissions from there. Also like Paddy, he can be controlled if he finds himself on bottom. On the feet, Leavitt is much more controlled, but he isn't a particularly great striker. He doesn't have great technique or power, but he is willing to throw some low kicks. When the fight is standing, I think it favors Paddy as he is just much more willing to engage and throw strikes. This is going to be a weird fight to judge in my opinion and I just like Leavitt's wrestling a bit more.
Bets to consider: Leavitt ML +210, O2.5 +152, FGTD +210
Unfortunately for some, I don't really think Paddy is very bettable here. If you really want to go with Paddy, I think going with him by decision is the move at +380. That leads right into why I think this fight goes the distance, so I guess I'll start there. Overall, I don't really see where this fight gets finished. The general public is convinced Paddy is going to knock him out because of his debut, but that is literally the only knockout he has gotten in the standup in his entire career. Paddy is going to be aggressive in his strikes, but if he comes out and just goes crazy like he has at times, I think Leavitt puts him on his back. Once the fight is grounded, I think whoever is on top can control the other for long stretches. Neither of these guys has ever been submitted, so I trust them to not do so here. Jordan Leavitt didn't get submitted by Claudio Puelles, who is a much better grappler than Paddy, so I expect him to be just fine. If Leavitt is on top, I think he is going to be content to hold Paddy down and slowly transition to better positions and just ride out the round on top. It goes without saying that Leavitt isn't getting a finish on the feet and after the first round, Paddy probably won't have the gas to even pour it on in the striking if he wanted to. I also don't think Leavitt has a much better gas tank than Paddy does. All of that seems to suggest to me that this fight goes the distance. To go back to the money line, with Leavitt at +210, I think there is some small value there. I think Paddy should be favored since he is more aggressive and will have a noticeable athletic advantage, but having him lined to win an implied 72% of the time is a bit much. I would make that closer to 60% maybe 65% at best. I think that makes this ok to make a small play on Leavitt.
Jack Hermansson defeats Chris Curtis Result: Hermansson by decision (9-4)
This one also causes me physical discomfort. I really don't like picking against Chris Curtis because I really like him, but I think this might be too much too soon. Curtis is a pretty solid boxer and he has respectable power. I think he should have the advantage there and he needs to keep this fight in boxing range. He seems to have improved at least some in the grappling as historically that is where he was taken advantage of, but he was able to stop all of Rodolfo Vieira's takedowns just a few weeks ago. Honestly, I think my biggest concern is the fact that the Vieira fight was only a few weeks ago and Curtis got hit quite a bit in that fight and took some legitimate damage. I do think Jack Hermansson is a better overall grappler, especially in the wrestling. He is a much more advanced and well rounded wrestler and is going to chain his attempts together. His striking is much more based on range and landing kicks from distance as well. Curtis took a lot of jabs from Vieira and I think Jack could do some of the same in this one. Ultimately, I think Hermansson can get this one done with the wrestling and once he gets it down, he should be able to have a lot of success there.
Bets to consider: Hermansson ML -105, Hermansson finish only +108, Hermansson by sub +550
Since all of my bets above are about Hermansson, I will say if you want to be on the Curtis side, I think doing so by decision at +320 is the way to go. Curtis has more power than Jack, but Jack took Marvin Vettori's power, got dropped early, and still toughed it out to go to decision. I don't think Curtis hits as hard, even if he is a better overall striker. I don't really think he can finish Jack, so if you think he wins, I think going with the decision provides the best value. The Hermansson side has a lot of routes. I think his money line, finish only, and submission numbers are all interesting. I think Hermansson is noticeably better than anyone Curtis has fought recently and can dominate Curtis on the ground if he gets it there. I do believe Curtis is the better striker, but I don't think it is by a ton. Curtis did just have a pretty close decision with Vieira, who is a BJJ reliant fighter, was striking basically even with Brendan Allen until he knocked him out, and was getting dominated by Phil Hawes until he knocked him out. I think Hermansson is at least equal if not better than all of those guys striking. I really think Hermansson is the value side here.
Tom Aspinall defeats Curtis Blaydes Result: Blaydes by KO (9-5)
This is sort of just a gut feeling, but I like Aspinall here. I think his speed and striking is going to be too much over that first round and at least part of the second round. I don't think Blaydes is going to be able to touch him early. I do believe Aspinall can stop those early takedowns. The obvious concerns are Blaydes taking him down over and over and just pounding him out. There is also the unknown that is Aspinall's cardio. I did the full breakdown so if you want to read more in depth, check that out. This is just sort of a feeling that I have. I just kind think Tom may be the champion and we just don't know it yet.
Bets to consider: Blaydes ML +116
As much as I feel like Aspinall is going to win, from a purely analytical perspective, Blaydes is the side. Blaydes is probably the most well rounded fighter in the entire division. He is obviously a great wrestler, he's a pretty solid striker with good power, and he has maybe the best cardio in heavyweight MMA. To get that guy at plus money against virtually anyone should probably be an auto-bet. I also like that Blaydes throws some low kicks. That should be an interesting weapon for him here. Combine all of that with the fact that we know virtually nothing about Aspinall's cardio and his chin and I think that makes betting this fight pretty simple. Blaydes is the side, but I just have to pass because there is something about this whole thing that just makes me feel like Aspinall finds his chin and puts him out. Oh, and just to reiterate from my preview, that has nothing to do with Blaydes' durability. He is not chinny at all and don't believe anyone who says otherwise.
That's it from me on this one. It is already really late and this is an early card, so I need to get to bed. I'll be back to update this after and my bets will be listed below. Leave all of your picks, predictions, bets, etc. below. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card.
Official Bets
Herbert/Nelson FDNGTD 1 unit at -250 to win .4 units -1 unit
Charles Johnson ML .2 units at +360 to win .72 units -.2 units
Johnson/Mokaev FGTD .3 units at +132 to win .4 units +.4 units
Jonathan Pearce round 3 or decision .3 units at +165 to win .49 units -.3 units
Nathaniel Wood by decision .5 units at -130 to win .38 units +.38 units
Wood/Rosa FGTD .5 units at -176 to win .28 units +.28 units
Volkan Oezdemir ML 1.52 units at -152 to win 1 unit + 1 unit
Molly McCann by decision .75 units at -130 to win .58 units -.75 units
Alexander Gustafsson ML .1 units at +164 to win .16 units -.1 unit
Jordan Leavitt ML .1 units at +210 to win .21 units -.1 unit
Leavitt/Paddy O2.5 .5 units at +152 to win .76 units -.5 units
Leavitt/Paddy FGTD .5 units at +210 to win 1.05 units -.5 units
Jack Hermansson ML .6 units at -105 to win .57 units +.57 units
If you guys are catching on, I like to have a lot of small plays instead of just a few big ones. I don't like being over exposed too much and I think having a lot of plays across the whole card just makes it a little more fun. As someone who has a bit of an anxiety problem, betting large amounts would literally make me sick and I wouldn't even enjoy watching the events, so the small plays work better for me. Find your own style and what you're comfortable with. Maybe that is only betting round props or fight goes or doesn't go the distance. Don't let people on MMA gambling twitter tell you otherwise. There's a lot of people who like to act like they know everything, but it is ultimately your money, so do what you want with it. Bet the way you want to and whatever way makes you feel comfortable.
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - .82 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 2.05 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 1.23 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 9 - 5
Previous Year to Date Record: 180 - 110
Updated Year to Date Record: 189 - 115
As has become customary on here, we'll start with the evaluation of the losses. Luckily, there wasn't too many of them. The first was Mandy Bohm losing to Victoria Leonardo. This isn't that surprising as it was a toss up for me. I thought Bohm would be able to have more success in the clinch and she really didn't do that. She was more content to be the one pressed against the cage and wasn't on the outside nearly enough. It seems as though she was just at too much of a strength disadvantage. On the feet, Leonardo's aggression won out. The second loss was Mason Jones losing to Ludovit Klein. This was a weird fight and I was honestly a bit distracted while it was happening, so I don't have as much detail about what happened as I normally would. From what I did see, Klein was the superior technical striker and it sort of limited what Jones was doing. The first round I didn't see much of at all, but it seemed like the broadcast thought Jones won the round. The second is when Jones was dropped by Klein's right hook. The third saw Jones try some sort of strange jumping technique and he ended up on his back for most of the rest of the round. It seemed to me like Jones was having trouble with Klein just being the sharper striker and having a slight speed advantage. He was having to just walk through some shots in order to be able to land his own and after he got dropped, he wasn't quite the same for the rest of the fight. Our next loss was Gustafsson and that one was a bit ugly. Gus actually looked a bit better and he was throwing his strikes well and he even landed hard a few times. Unfortunately, he got hit hard quite a few times as well. He got clipped and dropped early on, but was fighting to recover fairly well. He ended up returning to his feet and was trading with Krylov and absorbing some shots, while landing a few of his own. They got into the clinch and he didn't see the one punch coming and was dropped pretty badly. He took some follow up shots as well. It wasn't a great look for him as we just know that isn't the version of him that we all remember. It looks like it may be time for him to call it a career. Our next loss was Jordan Leavitt to Paddy Pimblett and that one was sort of taking a chance. I thought Paddy could be out wrestled by Leavitt and the first round made it seem more possible. The second round is when Paddy flipped the script. He landed a knee in the clinch that hurt Leavitt and eventually transitioned to the back. When he locked in the body triangle, he trapped Leavitt's arm and that was essentially it. Paddy is too good of a grappler for him to not get the submission if Leavitt was only fighting with one arm. That was a nice win for Paddy in a fight that I thought presented him with legitimate challenges that he hadn't really been matched up with before. My final loss was Tom Aspinall and that was just unfortunate. It was a hot start to the fight and it didn't seem like it was going to last too much longer. Aspinall threw a kick and damaged something in his knee and that was the end of the fight.
To quickly go over the wins, I thought I read the Dalby vs Silva fight mostly correct. Silva did have more grappling success than I thought he would, but ultimately, his cardio proved to be the thing that got him. He slowed down and got beat up pretty badly in the second round. Dalby controlled much of the third round, but Silva actually had some moments towards the end of the round to make it a lot closer than most people thought it would be after the second. Jai Herbert defeated Kyle Nelson in probably the weirdest fight on the card. I don't think anyone expected so much work in the clinch in this fight, but Herbert was able to have a lot of success there. He controlled the fight for long stretches on the cage and also on the mat in the third round and brought home a win. He needed it after the Topuria loss, so I felt good for him. Muhammad Mokaev picked up an impressive win over Charles Johnson. I thought Mokaev would have the grappling advantage, but I didn't think it would be to that extent. Mokaev was essentially on top of Johnson for entire 15 minutes. He didn't give him any space and controlled almost the entire 15 minutes. Our next win was Jonathan Pearce and I think I had that fight pretty well read as well. Makwan was dangerous early with his submissions and was able to hit Pearce on the feet. His volume wasn't really there in the standup and Pearce was able to cancel him out in a lot of the grappling transitions. Once we got to the second round, Makwan's gas tank was almost completely empty and while he fought hard, JSP was able to eventually get the finish late in the second as Makwan just couldn't get out of a bad spot. I thought Nathaniel Wood was the easiest pick for me this week, but even I underestimated the advantages he had. He looked probably the best he ever has in the UFC and Rosa really had no answers. Rosa landed a few solid shots, but other than that, there really just wasn't anything he could do. Wood was just too fast with his hands and after a few of those low kicks, Rosa really couldn't even move well. Wood probably could have wrestled him if he wanted to, but he was rolling in the striking. That was impressive to watch. I thought I had the Marc Diakiese win pretty well understood as well. If Diakiese chose to wrestle, the fight was almost guaranteed to end up exactly how it did. My worry was more of what if Diakiese had one of his inconsistent performances, but even then, I don't think Diakiese couldn't compete on the feet, it would've just been a lot closer. Our next win was Volkan Oezdemir and it ended up being a little closer than I would've liked. It seemed like Volkan was almost too cautious and was afraid to get stuck in a bad place. This caused him to be really low volume and he wasn't really sitting down on any of his shots either. Optically, this caused the fight to seem a lot closer, but in reality, outside of a few nice connections on the feet, Craig didn't really do a whole lot. I was honestly surprised that the scorecards were so consistent. I think I did slightly misread the McCann fight as I really didn't expect her to get another knockout. I still don't really see her as having tremendous power, but she had Goldy hurt and then went for the kill. It was another nice win for her and I expect that we see her get a little bit of a better opponent next time. Our final win of the night was Jack Hermansson and he had a really nice showing. His striking was really on point and he really controlled Chris Curtis from range. His low kicks and even some body kicks were really impactful. Hermansson's ability to move side to side really had Curtis at a loss as he couldn't cut him off. I thought he had more of a chance to grapple Curtis, but he only attempted a few takedowns and really didn't get even close on any of them, so I missed the mark on that.
We finally have to go over the bets. We missed our first play of the night with Herbert/Nelson doesn't go the distance. That was also our biggest miss of the event at 1 unit and it was a bit of a discouraging one. Missing my read on the fight as dramatically as I did sort of made me nervous wondering if I had as bad of a time with the rest of the card. Herbert was more concerned with getting the win by any means necessary than fighting his normal style and I don't really blame him. He suffered a horrendous knockout against Ilia Topuria, so him being more cautious wasn't that surprising in retrospect. I took a small flyer on Charles Johnson and that was more of a value play than anything, so I wasn't surprised that he lost. I hit the fight goes the distance though and I think I made the right read on the fight as a whole from that standpoint. Johnson was too good defensively as Mokaev really never got all that close to a submission. The JSP bet was the one that hurt. If Makwan lasts another 50 seconds, our bet is pretty likely to cash, but he gets finished at the end of the second instead of making it into the third. The same thing happened last week with Bill Algeo unfortunately. If that bet hits, we essentially break even with only .03 units lost, but that's just how it goes sometimes. We bounced back by getting Nathaniel Wood to win by decision and the fight goes the distance. Charles Rosa was in bad shape late in that fight, but he was able to tough it out and make it to the scorecards to cash both of those bets for us. Volkan Oezdemir picked up a 30-27 win over Paul Craig and cashed my biggest bet of the night. Then came the cold streak that kind of killed the night for me. I had Molly McCann by decision and she came out and got the first round knockout. She hit Goldy flush a couple of times and when she had her hurt, she fired off a flurry of punches with an elbow that would eventually put Goldy down. All 3 bets on Leavitt/Paddy missed as well. I took a flyer on Leavitt just based on line value and it wasn't looking bad early. The first round was pretty competitive. That is sort of what I thought the fight would look like, it was just a matter of which fighter was going to be on the outside of the clinch. Regardless of who it was, the fight was shaping up to go over and go the distance. I split those bets just incase something weird happened and we got a late finish, but Paddy found the choke in the second. After he got Leavitt's arm trapped in the body triangle, it was pretty much over. The knee in the clinch was pretty nice though. I never saw it coming and when it initially landed, I thought he just knocked him out. Paddy picks up another win and I'm actually curious to see what they do with him next. There's not too many easy fights at 155 lbs, so he may be in for a nice test in his next one. The final bet of the night for me was Hermansson and he won really without too much issue. He didn't use his grappling as much as I thought he would, but I suppose he really didn't need to. He was having too much success at range to try and force the grappling too much.
Overall a disappointing betting performance, but it could have been worse. We'll be back again next week hopefully with another positive event.
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