Well, you may have noticed that I never put out the preview for Nate Diaz vs Khamzat Chimaev yesterday. I was somewhat busy early in the morning and then by the time I got home, all hell was breaking loose. I have to assume that, by now, you know that Khamzat Chimaev badly missed weight after being distracted all fight week and forced the entire card to be rearranged. I won't get too much into it here as I don't know that my readers for these picks and bets are really looking for my opinion on talking points, but I do think Khamzat looks really bad for now. To be causing issues and being involved in chaos with two people that he wasn't scheduled to fight, Paulo Costa and Kevin Holland, and then showing up 7.5 lbs over the limit and not really seeming to care all that much looks really bad. I'm not sure there is an easier way to get on Dana's bad side than to pull stuff like this and put events in jeopardy. Dana isn't as involved as he was back in the day, but his opinion still obviously matters and being in his doghouse isn't a good thing, especially for a fighter who is still in the process of establishing himself. Guys have caused issues in the past and two of them are on this card in Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson. However, both of those men are well established and have a decade plus in this sport to prove their worth. Despite their spats with Dana, Nate and Tony have always shown up to fight, turned in great performances, drawn countless fans to the sport, and have bailed the UFC out in times of need. While things may get ugly at times, I think there's all some level of respect between everyone there because they know what the other has done for them. With Khamzat, even though he is inside the top 5, he still is only 11 fights into his pro career and doesn't have the history with Dana to cause issues like this. Of course, if Khamzat goes out and runs through Kevin Holland and finishes him in 12 seconds, a lot of this will go away, but I kind of doubt that he gets a title shot with a win here just because he can't be relied on to make the weight. Of course, Khamzat wasn't the only fighter to miss weight, but we'll get into that when we get to those fights. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom.
Darian Weeks defeats Yohan Lainesse Result: Lainesse by decision (0-1)
The prelims for this entire card are a bit all over the place and this fight kicks off the night. If you're a returning reader and know my general process when it comes to making these picks and bets, you know that boom or bust guys really aren't my thing in most cases and that is what Lainesse brings to the table. His stats on the UFC stats page are a bit inflated by the small sample size of his UFC career, so don't let the grappling stats fool you. He's a guy who wants to stand and strike and his going to throw big power shots as much as he can. He does possess decent enough power, but I think a lot of that comes from the fact that he really loads up on his shots more than anything else. The biggest concern for me on the Lainesse side is that his cardio is reliable to fail him. I would say that the best case scenario is that he slows down around the midpoint of the fight and the worst case scenario is that he slows towards the end of the first round. If he doesn't get that early knockout, it is hard to see him having a ton of success in the latter portion of the fight. Darian Weeks isn't the best fighter in the world, but I do generally like his striking a bit more. I think he is overall more technical and his counter heavy style should suit this matchup well. Because Weeks does rely on his ability to counter, his pace can be inconsistent as he really will throw as much as his opponent does. Lainesse is pretty reliable to be aggressive early while he has the energy and I think he will find himself getting countered badly when he enters the pocket to try and land those big shots. It wouldn't really shock me if Lainesse were to find that big punch, but Weeks seems to be pretty durable, so I don't think it's a given that Lainesse knocks him out even if he connects. I don't really expect Weeks to do much grappling either, so I would be surprised to see that have a major impact on this fight. This fight could look competitive early, but as the fight extends, Weeks is going to be able to take over as Lainesse just doesn't have the gas tank to push a pace for a full 3 rounds. Lainesse is kind of first round or bust for me and I agree that Weeks should be the favorite in this fight.
Bets to consider: Weeks ML -128, Lainesse ITD +185
Given the cardio dynamic in this fight, I really thought Weeks would be a bit of a bigger favorite. However, Weeks hasn't look great so far in the UFC, but I think those fights were much worse matchups for him. I just don't see how someone who has 8 minutes of cardio at best can be even money unless they have Derrick Lewis level power, which Lainesse does not. If you're looking to bet the Lainesse side, I would much rather take him inside the distance at +185 than at +104, but I really don't even think that is particularly great value. I am much more interested in playing the Weeks money line at only -128 right now because I simply trust him to turn in a consistent performance. He's going to counter well and I think he could really hurt Lainesse, especially if he starts getting reckless. Lainesse will be moderately dangerous early, but after that, Weeks shouldn't really have much of an issue. I like Weeks and his technical striking here and would cap him closer to a -160-ish favorite.
Elise Reed defeats Melissa Martinez Result: Reed by decision (1-1)
We have a pretty low level fight here as Elise Reed makes her return to the octagon with Melissa Martinez making her UFC debut. Reed is a competent striker for her standing within the division, but that is really about it. Her grappling has been historically pretty poor, especially from bottom. She's not the lowest output in the world, but she doesn't really fight with any legitimate pace either. The one thing Reed does do is move her feet and I think that will serve her well here. I think she could have success with her counters if she is using her movement and footwork properly and that was enough for me to take her here. Martinez is making her UFC debut and is returning to MMA for the first time in a few years. Given that Martinez is still very young, it is reasonable to expect that she made a lot of improvements in that time, but there's no way for us to know for sure. She has been doing some kick boxing, so at least her striking should be improved. Martinez has always been a striker, but the last we saw her in MMA, she was just sort of ok. She will probably push a better pace than Reed, but I'm not sure that she'll have the advantage technically and I could see Reed's movement presenting her with some issues. Martinez has also shown herself to be very inexperienced on the ground. She's been really lost on her back and I imagine she would be finished there if Reed somehow ended up on top. With all of the unknowns surrounding Martinez and how or if she's improved since we saw her last, I have to go with Reed.
Bets to consider: Reed +138
Given what I just said, it is a little surprising to see Reed come into this fight at a +140 underdog price. Based purely on process here, you should probably bet Reed as it is hard to imagine this fight being anything other than a close range kickboxing match. If someone ended up on top, either fighter could look really good, but I don't really expect anyone to initiate grappling exchanges or have the wrestling skill to actually do anything with them if they did. To have a lowish paced kickboxing match with two strikers who are more or less even, to get one of them at +140 is probably the correct bet to make over the long term. On the other hand, I could envision a scenario where Martinez is significantly improved and just blows Reed away. I'm not sure how pleased I would be with the idea of losing money on Elise Reed, but I kind of feel like that is what I have to do.
Alatengheili defeats Chad Anheliger Result: Alatengheili by decision (2-1)
This is the first really strange fight of the night. Alatengheili should win this fight at a pretty high rate as I think he is just the better fighter to keep it simple. He's a pretty good wrestler, but he just doesn't really use it that much. If he was reliable to wrestle more consistently, he would be the easy pick here because I think he could dominate Anheliger in that realm. On the feet, Alatengheili is just an ok striker overall, but he does bring pretty decent power to the table. The downside is that he is a lower output fighter and that really plays into Anheliger's main path to victory. If I had to boil Chad Anheliger down to an archetype, I would just call him a lower level volume based striker. Anheliger isn't a great grappler and can be taken down somewhat easily by fighters who know how to wrestle. His striking is just ok because he really doesn't have a ton of power. He isn't not technical, especially given the tier of the division he's in and he will throw out a fair amount of volume. If you promised me that Alatengheili would come out and consistently wrestle, he probably wins this fight somewhat easily. However, he really has never shown a consistent willingness to attempt takedowns, so I can't really assume he starts here either. If this fight gets stuck on the feet, I think it is a pretty close fight where the judges have to decide if Anheliger's volume wins out or if they give it to Alatengheili's fewer, but more powerful strikes. I just think Alatengheili is the more skilled fighter while Anheliger is only a borderline UFC caliber guy, so I have to go with him, but it really wouldn't shock me if Anheliger found a way to pull it out.
Bets to Consider: Alatengheili ML -172, FGTD -190
This is a weird fight to bet. If Alatengheili came out and fought to the best of his ability with the proper gameplan, he could probably look -800 here, which makes -172 tremendous value. On the other hand, if he doesn't wrestle at all and chooses to stand and box with Anheliger, I most definitely don't want to be sitting there and holding a -172 ticket on that fight. On the Anheliger side, I think most of his win equity comes via a narrow, greasy 29-28 decision where he wins based purely on volume. I'm not really looking to bet someone at +140 hoping to be on the right side of a split decision. I think the best case scenario here for Anheliger is just to ever so slightly edge Alatengheili out, where the best case scenario for Alatengheili is complete domination. I would just need more than +140 in that scenario. I just don't think there's any value on Anheliger at an implied 40% win rate at all. At +200, that's a much different conversation, but we're nowhere near that, so I'm staying away. I would much rather lay the chalk on Alatengheili, even with all the concerns, but I'm staying clear of that. I think the fight goes the distance at -190 is an ok spot though for this fight. It has been juiced a bit and I don't know that there's a ton of meat left on the bone there, but I don't think it is a bad look by any means. Anheliger doesn't have a ton of finishing potential and I don't really grade Alatengheili much as a finisher either. He has decent power in his hands, but both guys have been pretty durable in their careers so this one should go to decision at a pretty high rate.
Norma Dumont defeats Danyelle Wolf Result: Dumont by decision (3-1)
This is one of those fights where I wonder how the idea even came up in the match making meetings. I really don't enjoy hating on fighters and virtually all criticisms I have are relative to their specific opponent and to being in the UFC in general more so than actively attacking or making fun of them. However, if we're being real here, Danyelle Wolf isn't a UFC fighter. She's coming into this fight at 39 years old with only her contender series fight on her record and she didn't look very good in that fight. She has a professional boxing background and I wouldn't say her boxing is particularly impressive. She throws a jab, but that is really about all she has. She's lower volume and doesn't really string combinations together either. Her power looks to be ok I guess, but nothing out of the ordinary. She's been away for a couple of years, but I can't imagine her grappling has gotten even all that close to average for UFC level fighter. An advantage that Wolf does bring is that she is a legitimate featherweight and seems to be pretty strong if this fight were to get into the clinch. I know Norma Dumont isn't the most popular fighter on MMA twitter, but I like her more than most. She's not going to wow anyone or really stand out necessarily, but I think she is just a pretty solid all around fighter. She doesn't always fight with the best pace, but I think she does ok most of the time. Her striking is on the ordinary side, but she does a decent job of limiting damage. Her grappling isn't outstanding, but she averages a tick over 1 takedown per 15 minutes in the UFC and if she came out and tried to wrestle from the jump, I imagine that she could finish this fight pretty quickly. It really wouldn't surprise me if she could edge out a decision in the striking, but if she gets this fight into the clinch or on the ground, she really shouldn't have a problem here.
Bets to consider: Dumont ITD +240, FDNGTD +144
This is one of those fights like the John Makdessi vs Nasrat Haqparast fight last week where the lines just don't fully add up to me. Opening a sportsbook app and seeing Norma Dumont at -420 is probably a bit jarring to most people, but I really don't think it's all that far off. She's just the better, more well rounded, and more experienced martial artist here and that should go a long way. What doesn't make sense to me is the fact that Dumont is -420, but the fight goes the distance is almost -190. What I don't really understand is how someone could think Norma is a rightful -420 favorite, but then not have much confidence in the fight being finished. I'm not really sure how Norma covers her price on the money line, but this fight also goes to decision at that rate. If Norma comes out and truly looks -420 or better, that means that she's taking Wolf down and getting a lot of top time, In that situation, I think she probably finishes her without too much trouble. If you don't think Norma can get takedowns, then I don't see how you could like Norma anywhere near -420 and thus you would see value on the Wolf side. If you're projecting this fight to go to decision often enough to justify a -190 line, then you must think that Wolf is stopping takedowns and at least providing some level of resistance. To say this another way, for Dumont to look -420 or better, she probably has to finish her, which means the fight doesn't go the distance at +144 doesn't make sense. If you're on the other side and think the fight goes the distance at -190 is correct, then you have to think that Wolf provides an actual threat or at least considerable resistance and that she shouldn't be anywhere near +310. What these lines are essentially saying is that they expect Dumont to dominate this fight most of the time, but simultaneously give her very little chance of finding a finish. I just don't think those things can really exist simultaneously, especially given Wolf's inexperience, especially on the ground.
Jake Collier defeats Chris Barnett Result: Barnett by KO (3-2)
This is a fight and a half here. Look, Chris Barnett is fun. He's a fun loving guy who is pretty likable with a great personality who can do some pretty impressive things for his size. However, that is really where it begins and ends for him. Barnett is just really behind the 8-ball here both in this fight and within the UFC heavyweight division as a whole. His grappling is very poor and he would probably get finished if he spent any amount of extended time on his back. On the feet, he can do some flashy things for someone his size, but that's really the thing, it always has to come with "for his size". As someone myself who is certainly not in good shape by any definition, I don't want to pick on the guy, but he's a professional athlete. He became the second fighter in UFC history to miss the heavyweight limit earlier today and it's going to show. His cardio is very poor and I would say he probably has to find the knockout inside of the first 2 minutes to really have any chance in this one. His striking isn't that great and he's not particularly technical. His power is just average at best for heavyweight as well. I guess he could land a spinning hook kick or a jumping axe kick or something, but that is really his only shot here. At the end of the day, he's a 5'9 heavyweight, who couldn't make 266 lbs with no cardio and subpar MMA skills. On the other side of this fight is Jake Collier, who while unspectacular, is a very steady and reliable heavyweight. He doesn't do anything that jumps of the screen, but he's just really solid. He doesn't have much in terms of grappling, but he's going to have the advantage there if he wants it. On the feet, he's just the better striker in every way. He's going to throw more volume, he's more technical, and he has more power. I wouldn't say Collier has great power for a heavyweight, but it is enough that when he lands with the frequency he does, he hurts people somewhat consistently. His best trait, especially in this division, is his ability to push a pace. Most big guys just can't keep up with the pace he throws strikes at and he is able to pour it on them and eventually just break some of his opponents. Collier arguably beat Andrei Arlovksi recently, so he could be real player in the bottom part of the rankings sometime soon in my opinion. As long as Collier doesn't walk into a viral knockout early, he should be fine in this one.
Bets to consider: Collier by KO +180, Collier ITD +115, FDNGTD -130
These lines seem pretty crazy to me to be honest. I know Collier isn't a huge power puncher and doesn't have crazy submission skills, but Barnett normally has legitimately 2-3 minutes of cardio before he fades and now he missed weight. If this fight somehow even got into the third round, I think Barnett would basically collapse if Collier landed a 3 strike combination on him. I'm probably going to split a unit on KO and ITD, just incase Collier club and subs him, but I don't see why Collier shouldn't finish this fight. How this fight is lined at -130 to not go the distance is actually dumbfounding to me because I don't know what a decision in this fight looks like. Barnett's only hope is an early knockout here and if he doesn't, I don't think he has the gas to even stand in front of Collier for another 10 minutes. I've gone back and checked this line like 8 times while typing this to make sure I'm looking at the right thing because it just doesn't make sense at all. Put your house on this fight doesn't go the distance.
Jamie Pickett defeats Denis Tiuliulin Result: Tiuliulin by KO (3-3)
This sort of reminds me of the Alatengheili vs Chad Anheliger fight in a way where one fighter has most of the advantges, it is just a matter of if they actually maximize them. Pickett really should have Tiuliulin covered here for the most part. Pickett is a big, strong, explosive guy who really has no obvious area of weakness. He's a pretty solid striker and he's able to generate good power with his strikes. He is on the lower output side, but that is really only knock on his game skill wise. He is a pretty solid grappler as well and I think wrestling would probably be his easiest path to victory in this one. Besides the low output, the biggest concern in Pickett's game is that he's just really inconsistent. Sometimes he will look really good and other times he just doesn't really show up. I think the one thing I noticed is that he doesn't really seem comfortable when his opponent is game to engage and come at him. That is a concern here, but I just think he's the better fighter with the better and more diverse skill set. Tiuliulin isn't really a special fighter, but he does do some things well. He is willing to come forward and he has pretty decent power. Beyond that, I think he is a tad limited. He doesn't really wrestle offensively and his defensive grappling leaves something to be desired as well. I don't think his cardio is all that great either, which has me worried that he could just completely fall off over the back half of the fight. While that is the case, it isn't like Pickett is the guy to push a pace, so that mitigates that concern slightly. I think Tiuliulin is very live early while he has the energy. He is going to come forward and he will probably have a chance to land something big on Pickett, but if he doesn't finish him, I think he probably falls behind. If Pickett is committed to wrestling from the start, I don't really think Tiuliulin has the answers for it either.
Bets to consider: Pickett by decision +220
This is kind of a hard fight for me to pinpoint an exact play because Pickett is just so inconsistent from fight to fight. If he comes out and fights to the best of his capabilities and the best gameplan, he could easily look -500 here. If he doesn't, he could get knocked out in like 3 minutes. He's currently at -134 on the moneyline and I don't hate anyone who plays that, but I think if he came back down to around -125 or better, I might play him at that point. I think he most likely wins by decision because he's just not much of a finisher at the UFC level in my mind. I don't think his power is anything too crazy and he doesn't strike with enough volume to really collect KOs in bunches consistently. On the ground, he doesn't have a ton of submission ability either even though Tiuliulin's defensive grappling seems suspect. I think Pickett by decision is the most likely final outcome, so to get it at +220 seems fine, but I wouldn't be rushing to the window to play it either. Tiuliulin finish only is +110, so if that interests you then maybe that's the way to play this fight.
Jailton Almeida defeats Anton Turkalj Result: Almeida by submission (4-3)
We're getting Turkalj making a quick turnaround after he got denied a contract on contender series and stepping in on short notice to face one of the hotter prospects in the UFC right now in Jailton Almeida. It's really hard to say exactly where Turkalj is at because there's a few things we haven't seen him do, mainly what he looks like on bottom. What we do know is that Turkalj can wrestle and push a very good pace. Regardless of the level of competition, he landed 11 takedowns in his contender series fight and was able to hold up cardio wise, which isn't extremely common for his size. The problem is, we also know his striking is very poor. He doesn't strike well offensively and he doesn't defend strikes very well either. Even against very low level regional competition, his striking doesn't look very good. He was able to grapple his way to wins in those fights with almost 0 resistance though, but I think that has more to do with the level of competition than Turkalj himself though. My feeling is that Almeida is just on another level though. He's been able to get takedowns, even against much larger opponents, and really put it on guys on the ground. He has very real submission skills and lands strikes with good power as well. He's big, strong, and explosivee on the feet, even though his striking isn't the cleanest. Almeida should be able to handle Trukalj, especially on the feet, and can probably knock him out without too much of an issue in my estimation.
Bets to consider: Almeida by KO +250
Almeida should and will have a huge advantage on the feet here. His athleticism is just going to be too much and he is going to blast Turkalj over and over. Turkalj just isn't a very good or refined striker at this stage and he probably gets exposed here pretty badly. I don't know that he can stand up to the power of Almeida for very long given how easy he is to be hit. We know Turkalj can grapple, so even though that is Almeida's stronger facet, I don't really see a need for him to go there given how large the gap is standing. The one worry is that we really have no idea what Almeida's cardio is like and I kind of suspect that it isn't the best given how muscle bound he is. If Turkalj can somehow survive, we know his cardio is pretty good, so that could get interesting. At +500, could it be worth a shot that Turkalj can handle himself in the first round and then use his wrestling and cardio to come on late? Maybe, but that is nothing more than a dart throw and a prayer. I think the most likely scenario is that Almeida handles him on the feet before we really get any answers about his cardio though.
Hakeem Dawodu defeats Julian Erosa Result: Erosa by decision (4-4)
This fight should actually be pretty fun. Julian Erosa can't be in a boring fight as his style just doesn't allow for it. He's all action, kill or be killed. He is going to come forward and bring the fight to his opponent and he's pretty dangerous. He throws a lot of strikes and has pretty good power in doing it. He's also a moderately decent grappler and who can mix in takedowns whenever necessary with an at least respectable submission game. His cardio allows him to push this pace as well. Obviously he can't go crazy for a full 15 minutes, but he still has solid output the entire way. The biggest issue in his game isn't even that he defends strikes poorly, it's that he really doesn't defend them at all. He is there to be hit basically whenever his opponent wants to and he really isn't the most durable guy in the world at this point. Dawodu is much more of a striker and he should largely have the advantage there. He relies mostly on countering, which makes his output unreliable at times as he relies on his opponent to force a lot of the exchanges, which won't be an issue with Erosa. I expect the counters to be open for Dawodu and for him to capitalize pretty often. Dawodu is also the cleaner striker in general and the more powerful guy, so I do ultimately think he can knock Erosa out eventually. Dawodu hasn't been the best defensive wrestler in the world, so it wouldn't surprise me if Erosa were to take him down and have success there, but I do think Erosa is going to play into the hype and the crowd and start trying to trade. Erosa is very dangerous and Dawodu doesn't have the best chin in the world, so Erosa does have a chance, but I think his poor defensive tendencies do him in on this one.
Bets to consider: FDNGTD +104
While I do think Dawodu has clear advantages that make him very likely to win this fight, Erosa is crazy and dangerous enough that I'm not really looking to lay the -215 chalk on Hakeem here. I think getting this fight to not go the distance at any plus money is probably the play. Most of Erosa's win equity comes with a finish because I think Hakeem will be landing the cleaner, more powerful shots and be up on scorecards. At the same time, if Hakeem is landing those hard counters over and over, I think Erosa will eventually go down himself. He just gets hit way too much to stand there with someone with power like Dawudo for an entire 15 minutes in my opinion.
Ion Cutelaba defeats Johnny Walker Result: Walker by submission (4-5)
Considering all of the craziness leading up to this event, it's surprising that this fight wasn't somehow involved in that chaos. Cutelaba is a bit crazy himself and brings some of that unpredictability to the cage with him, at least historically. Lately, he's been a little more under control, but I don't know that I'm ready to fully trust that yet. Cutelaba is kind of a wild guy who isn't really afraid to engage in any aspect at any time. He's not an amazing pure striker, but he throws out volume with enough power to be pretty dangerous at times. His striking defense and chin aren't great, but I wouldn't call them weaknesses either. He's really relied more and more on his grappling lately and that has seen him have a lot more consistent success. I would hope he plans on wrestling here as he shouldn't have any issues wrestling Walker. If he does, I do suspect that he could finish him, especially early. There are two concerns with Cutelaba and the first is his inconsistency. He's a very emotional guy and I think it is 100% in the realm of possibility that he ignores what the best gameplan is and hears the crowd going crazy and he decides to just stand and swing with Johnny Walker, which wouldn't be a good idea. The other concern is that we've seen him have this wrestling success early, but then he gasses out badly and ends up losing late. That is also a possibility here, but Walker also doesn't have great cardio, so that isn't as big of a concern as it normally would be. Johnny Walker on the other hand is one of the most unique athletes the UFC has. He's absolutely massive for the division and is as athletic and explosive as anyone the UFC has. The issue is that his MMA skills have always just sort of lagged behind. He isn't a great striker, he's just huge and has really good power. His length advantage is massive and even though he doesn't really know how to use it well, he can hit his opponent before they hit him and when he does, they usually don't absorb his power well. With Cutelaba's chin, I don't know how many clean shots he can really eat in this one. Like I hinted at before, Walker isn't a very good defensive grappler and I imagine that once Cutelaba is on the inside, that he will be able to take him down. Walker isn't completely lost off of his back, but I don't suspect he's any real threat to submit Cutelaba. On top of that, Walker really doesn't have a great chin or reliable cardio himself. I think Cutelaba will take him down and end up finishing him on the mat probably somewhat early.
Bets to consider: Cutelaba ML -188
Honestly, I wouldn't mind playing Cutelaba at chalk as crazy as that sounds. The only clear advantages that Walker has are the size and explosion and I just don't think that is really enough. If Walker was a better striker and was more reliable to actually keep Cutelaba at range, then maybe I would feel differently about his chances, but I think once Cutelaba gets him down, that is really the beginning of the end. Even if he can maintain card and stay relatively safe, I don't see any reason that Cutelaba wouldn't be able to just take him down round after round. His cardio isn't great and he could death gas, but I'm not really sure that Walker has the cardio to actually take advantage of it if it comes to that. I think Cutelaba could be around -220 and would have no issue with anyone playing him here. Depending on how many other bets I'm making, I could look to add him.
Irene Aldana defeats Macy Chiasson Result: Aldana by KO (5-5)
This fight is kind of straight forward to me. I just think this is a matchup that really favors Aldana. The only thing that throws a wrench into it is that she looked kind of bad against Holly Holm and that is what people are envisioning Chiasson doing to her here. Aldana is a pretty good striker overall. She's technical, throws volume, and has pretty respectable power. I trust her chin and her overall cardio as well. In that Holm fight, she struggled in the clinch and in the grappling, which is where Chiasson wants to be. The problem with that line of thinking in my mind is that we've never really seen Aldana have that issue with anyone else who wanted to clinch her and Chiasson is just not on the level of even an aging Holly Holm. Chiasson is more of a grappler, but I don't think she's really anything special there. She doesn't land her takedowns efficiently, so I think that just leaves her hoping to control long stretches against the cage. It is possible that she does that, but I just don't really predict that she's going to. She's going to get beaten up badly at range and I think Aldana could even finish her there as Chiasson really doesn't have a great chin. On top of that Chiasson doesn't have reliable cardio and is actually pretty reliable to gas out. Add in that she missed weight coming into this fight and I don't think that is a great recipe for success. Even if she can grapple early, I don't think her gas tank allows her to sustain that and she ends up getting beaten up at range. I like Aldana and I like her pretty comfortably here.
Bets to consider: Aldana ML -178
I think I made my point pretty clear in that I think this matchup favors Aldana. Chiasson really can't compete with her at all at range. She's going to be desperate to get this fight into the clinch and she will probably get countered pretty badly. Chiasson in general doesn't defend strikes all that well and is going to be facing a lot of volume. She doesn't absorb damage well and I do think she is live to get knocked out. This would be enough on it's own, but add in the cardio problems and the weight miss and that really minimizes any chance Macy has. She could get some clinch control early and maybe even a takedown, but she just isn't going to have the energy reserves to do that time and time again over the second and third rounds. Similar to Cutelaba, I think Aldana could easily be out towards -220 in this fight.
Daniel Rodriguez defeats Li Jingliang Result: Rodriguez by decision (6-5)
This is the first of the new fights we have, so I'm doing my analysis on these last 3 more so on the fly than the more nuanced researched takes above where I've had all week to think about them. I think I like Rodriguez here because Li is going to largely give him the fight he wants. Rodriguez is a pure volume striker and a pretty good boxer in general. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he's just so aggressive in throwing and landing strikes that it almost doesn't matter. He's really at his best when he has an opponent who will stand in front of him and exchange with him, which Li will almost certainly oblige him in. What worries me about Rodriguez is that he's an older guy, coming off of an injury, and took this fight on short notice, which is why he needed a catchweight of 180 lbs to begin with. On the other side, Jingliang is the more well rounded fighter, but he is also more of a striker. The reason I don't favor Li is that his volume is ultimately a little hit and miss. Sometimes he's very aggressive and other times he dials it back. He does like to get into the pocket and exchange, which I think will favor Rodriguez as he's going to throw more and he's just a slicker boxer in my opinion. Li will have a power advantage though and that could be the equalizer, but I don't really have durability concerns with Rodriguez. He got hurt by Dwight Grant, but Grant has huge power for the division, where Li's is more just good. Li isn't the most durable guy himself as he's been hurt on several occasions at this point and he is very open to being hit. Li does wrestle sometimes, but Rodriguez was able to stop takedowns from Kevin Lee, who is a better wrestler than Li even if he is smaller. I don't suspect that Li will have grappling success here and even if he did, I think Rodriguez would be able to work back to his feet just fine. At the end of the day, unless Li can land some big power shots, I don't really like his chances as there's just no way he will keep up with the volume coming from Rodriguez.
Betting Thoughts:
Since these fights are so new, I don't really have much in the way of lines, so I'll just talk about what I do have access to. For this fight, I have the money lines with Rodriguez at -150 and Jingliang at +130. I also have a round total with over 2.5 being -152 and under 2.5 being at +120. I'm not really looking to play this fight as there's so much going on that it's really hard to say what is going to happen. I don't know how much gameplanning we're actually going to see and it will probably just turn into fighters doing what they're most comfortable with more than anything else. If that is the case, we're probably going to see these guys throwing a lot of leather and I have to favor Rodriguez there. He is basically guaranteed to out land Li and that really leaves Li to either hope to land some big shots or look for takedowns. I don't really expect him to do much wrestling and I don't think he will really damage Rodriguez badly enough to swing the fight either. Rodriguez should be the favorite, but I don't feel confident enough to lay -150 on him given his whole situation coming into this fight. The line also isn't really wide enough for me to want to play Li here either though. I do expect this fight to go over quite a bit of the time, but with the short notice nature of this fight and the fact that both Li and Rodriguez were added to the card late for their original matchups, I don't necessarily want to assume their cardio in general either. I'm going to be passing on this fight unless something crazy happens to the line before now and the fight. If we see Li get out close to +160 or something then maybe that's the spot or if Rodriguez comes down to -130, but that's really all I'm considering here. If we get more props, Rodriguez by decision is something I would at least look at.
Khamzat Chimaev defeats Kevin Holland Result: Chimaev by submission (7-5)
At the end of the day, this matchup favors Khamzat, at least in theory. The big question is what condition is Khamzat actually in coming into this fight, both physically and mentally. Missing weight by that much is clearly indicative of some problem. Whether he was injured and couldn't train, got really sick during the cut, or just didn't take this fight seriously, something is compromising him to some degree. Mentally, Khamzat is clearly in a very strange spot. He's been causing issues all week with Paulo Costa of all people and Kevin Holland before this fight even existed. He then missed weight and seemed pretty happy about it and now has everyone booing him pretty aggressively. Given that he's been acting weird all week and the crowd clearly got to him in the Burns fight, I imagine he's going to be a bit rattled in this one. Gilbert Burns was able to sucker him into a brawl that I thought Burns was largely winning. I thought Burns was winning early until Khamzat dropped him, Burns did win the second round, and then Chimaev just sort of edged out the final round. This all came against a guy in Burns who has a more traditional lightweight body type with a history of unreliable cardio and some durability issues. This is the same guy that got flattened by a Kamaru Usman jab and he was eating Chimaev right hands like it was nothing. Chimaev's cardio didn't look great in that fight either. Now, that fight took place at a very reckless pace, but it proved that Chimaev's cardio wasn't amazing and that is when he made weight for a 3 round fight. This is now 7.5 lbs over in a 5 round fight. Now we get to Kevin Holland, who is the opposite of a lot of those things that Burns was. Instread of being undersized like Burns, Holland is huge for the weight. He's very tall, very long, and very explosive. Holland doesn't have cardio concerns as we've seen him fight 5 rounds multiple times. Kevin Holland also doesn't have durability concerns and is very good defensively. He manages distance extremely well and doesn't get hit very much at all. Holland is also a much better striker in terms of his technical ability. He has very fast hands and knows how to use his length very well, which he'll have a 6 inch reach advantage here. If Chimaev is going to fight as poor defensively here as he did against Burns, that is going to be a problem. Remember the hype about how Chimaev didn't get hit a single time in his first 4 UFC fights. After the Burns fight, he averages 4.30 strikes absorbed per minute in his entire UFC career. That's how much Burns was able to touch him. Now, if Gilbert Burns was able to sucker him into a brawl with virtually no history between the two, what do you think is going to happen when the crowd is going absolutely wild after he just fought Holland backstage at the press conference and now Holland is doing his Big Mouth thing and talking to him the whole fight? I kind of have a feeling that Khamzat will be willing to get crazy and swing with him. Now, I just made that whole case for Holland and I do believe that is a very real possibility. However, we have to address the elephant in the room. That is the fact that Holland has had very real problems preventing takedowns and Chimaev is one of the best pure wrestlers in the division. I feel pretty confident in saying that Khamzat will get Holland down early without issue. Holland has been improving, but I don't really think that will be enough against someone of Khamzat's ilk. However, I do think Holland can handle himself on the ground. Once the fight is down, Holland is very comfortable off of his back and I trust his BJJ enough to defend himself. Holland is really good at maintaining guard and getting his guard back if someone passes and has defended submissions well in the past too. He is far too willing to accept the bottom position, but I do wonder what happens if he stays safe enough to extend this fight. If he gets this fight into the third and beyond, what does Khamzat's cardio look like? How does he react if the crowd starts booing because he's just laying on Holland? I have no idea what the answer is, but I don't think it is nearly as sure a thing as some may lead you to believe. Khamzat should be able to wrestle Holland without too much of an issue unless he is more compromised than we know, but I'm just not 100% sure that he is actually going to. Khamzat needs to be the favorite and a pretty nice sized one, but I just have a gut feeling that this fight gets pretty interesting.
Betting Thoughts:
Literally in the time it took me to type that paragraph out, Chimaev's money line jumped from -500 to -650 on my sportsbook. I thought -500 was kind of the cutoff point for looking to play Chimaev. At -500, it was justifiable just because his style can easily dominate people and finish them at any time when he's at his best. However, at -650, given all of the chaos, I have no interest. I think Holland was at like +350 before and I didn't have any interest there at all, Now that he's at +440, I'm honestly starting to consider it just because of how wild I think this fight could get. In my opinion, Khamzat didn't show up ready to fight for one reason or another. Again, I have no idea if it was an injury in camp not allowing him to train, an illness Friday morning preventing him from cutting, or he just didn't take this camp seriously and didn't prepare. Whatver it is though, he's not at 100%. While Khamzat has some very, very clear advantages, Kevin Holland also has some clear advantages as well and at that number, I really don't think it is a bad shot to take. If Gilbert Burns can draw Khamzat into a brawl and have success against him standing, I see no reason that Big Mouth couldn't do the same. The over 1.5 at -150 is somewhat tempting, but I'm not really feeling the need to play it. Khamzat could have compromised cardio and durability from whatever the weight cut problem was. He could also be normal Khamzat and immediately rip Holland to the ground and just unload on him so, I'm not really looking to lay juice on that over, but simultaneously have no interest in the under either.
Nate Diaz defeats Tony Ferguson Result: Diaz by submission (8-5)
Look man, I'm the guy with the Nick Diaz Army profile picture, I don't know what you really expected. At the end of the day, I think this is a pretty even fight with a lot of questions and I'm actually really looking forward to it. I don't know how this could be a bad time. This is two legends of the sport potentially getting their last moment in front of the fans before god knows what they do with the rest of their lives. I think this fight really comes down to what version of Tony we're going to get. I'm not really concerned with Nate because I feel comfortable that we're going to get the same general version of Nate that we always get. He's going to have good cardio (despite looking a little softer than when he fought Leon), he's going to have decent boxing, and he's going to be extremely tough. I don't really foresee any reason for that to change here. He doesn't defend takedowns, but Tony doesn't really shoot takedowns. He's going to give away free low kicks, but nothing new there either. I think Nate is actually the better pure boxer, even if his hand speed has dipped a touch. If anyone was going to have wrestling and grappling success here, I actually think Nate would be the guy, but I don't foresee that really happening. I think Nate's general size will give him an advantage in the clinch as well. Most of this fight should be them boxing in the pocket and I think it is going to be pretty fun. Tony really has a lot more of the questions surrounding him in my opinion. On one hand, I thought Tony looked better in his last fight against Michael Chandler than Nate did against Leon Edwards, but that ended very, very poorly for Tony. We're now only 4 months removed from Tony having his head almost kicked off his shoulders in one of the scarier moments in awhile and I'm not sure how I feel about the quick turnaround for him. On top of that, his original fight was only added to the card like 3 weeks ago and was supposed to be 3 rounds, while this is potentially 5. Tony has taken a lot of damage over the years and after a knockout like that, I worry that his durability may have been taken away from him. On the feet, Tony will be the more diverse striker and is probably still faster. His kicks and elbows should be able to land. I wonder how his cardio is effected by the short notice and I just think the overall situation benefits Nate a little more. I just trust Nate to give a more consistent performance at this stage and I kind of just want to see Tony fight well before I pick him again.
Betting Thoughts:
This fight actually has a full set of props, but I don't really know how to bet this fight and I'm not sure that I even want to regardless. I think I may just want to watch this fight as a fan and enjoy the moment. Even then, I'm not really sure how I would approach it. The money line situation is essentially even and I don't have a strong feeling either way. I don't feel great about playing the over or under 4.5 or the fight goes or doesn't go the distance. Historically, this fight goes the distance at a pretty high rate, but with Tony's durability, that is really up in the air. Add in the fact that Tony likes to use elbows and Nate's susceptibility to being cut and I don't think a doctor's stoppage is out of the question either. I don't really feel drawn in by any particular line here and I think that is probably for the best, at least for me on this one.
What do you guys think? What picks and predictions do you have? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets will be below.
Official Bets
Darian Weeks ML .5 units at -128 to win .39 units - .5 units
Elise Reed ML .25 units at +138 to win .35 units + .35 units
Norma Dumont ITD .5 units at +240 to win 1.20 units - .5 units
Jake Collier by KO .5 units at +180 to win .90 units - .5 units
Jake Collier ITD .5 units at +115 to win .58 units - .5 units
Collier/Barnett FDNGTD 5 units at -130 to win 3.85 units + 3.85 units
Ion Cutelaba ML 1 unit at -188 to win .53 units - 1 unit
Irene Aldana ML 1 unit at -178 to win .56 units + .56 units
Kevin Holland ML .25 units at +440 to win 1.10 units - .25 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 1.51 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 7.20 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 8.71 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 5
Previous Year to Date Record: 225 - 137
Updated Year to Date Record: 233 - 142
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