UFC Vegas 60 should be a pretty fun card and it brings a lot of interesting matchups. It may not bring forth the really well known names that casual fans recognize, but I think we should be in for a pretty solid afternoon of action. A few hours before I am beginning to type this out, we lost the Aspen Ladd vs Sara McMann fight. Ladd missed weight again and has had another fight removed from a card and I'm really not sure how the UFC justifies booking her at bantamweight anymore. I can't believe they did it again to be honest. If Ladd isn't just released, she will likely be forced to move to featherweight. I'm not sure why she's so committed to fighting at bantamweight in the first place as she could probably earn a featherweight title shot with only a couple of wins. Anyways, a pretty solid card of action from top to bottom will be capped off by a really big fight in the men's bantamweight division between Song Yadong and Cory Sandhagen. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Nikolas Motta defeats Cameron VanCamp Result: Motta by KO (1-0)
We have an interesting fight to kick off the night. VanCamp is a guy who brings the fight to his opponent every time out, but I'm not so sure that it will work out for him in this matchup. His best quality is his overall aggression and willingness to come forward. His striking isn't particularly amazing or clean, but he throws a lot of volume and he puts a decent amount of power behind it. His wrestling isn't anything special, but if you allow him to take you down, he's good enough to take the opening. He's more willing to stand and just try to slug it out though, so I expect that we see more of that. Motta isn't the best fighter you'll ever see, but he does have some decent skills in his tool box. He's a pretty good defensive wrestler, so even if VanCamp tried to wrestle, I wouldn't really expect him to have much success there. Motta will be the cleaner striker here and I think he can and probably will have a lot of success on the counters. Motta isn't especially powerful, but he is at least average and has the pop to put VanCamp down. VanCamp is way too aggressive most of the time and leaves himself open to be cracked on counters and I think that is largely what we'll see. The one concern I have for Motta is that he is on the low volume side sometimes, but with an opponent as aggressive as VanCamp, I think the counters will present themselves and he'll land hard with enough frequency. If he can't get the counter game working though, he'll almost assuredly fall behind on volume. As long as Motta doesn't get overwhelmed to the point where he isn't throwing back, I think he'll end up hurting and dropping VanCamp on a counter shot at some point.
Bets to consider: Fight Does Not Start Round 3 -128, Motta by KO +130
This is a tough fight to bet as no lines really stand out to me. I don't really have a ton of interest in the VanCamp side because I think he just comes forward until he either gets knocked out or gasses. I suppose the fight doesn't start round 3 line is almost interesting in that VanCamp's pressure either gets to Motta and gets him out of there or he eventually walks into something that puts him out, but I don't think -130 is the spot to get involved. Motta's most likely method of victory is a knockout in my opinion, but I'm not seeing a ton of value by playing it at that number either. My main concern for the both of these is that VanCamp gasses out and Motta is content to just out point him to a decision after VanCamp is just exhausted. If I had to pick a money line side, I think at -194, I would honestly go the Motta route, but I think this fight will just end up being a pass spot for me. Betting these decent but not massive favorites has always been a weak spot in my betting game and I'm especially not looking to do it in a lower level fight like this.
Tony Gravely defeats Javid Basharat Result: Basharat by decision (1-1)
We have what should be a pretty good fight up next with Tony Gravely taking on Javid Basharat. Basharat is a pretty well rounded fighter and I actually think he's generally a decent fighter. He's a pretty clean striker and is able to get off volume at a good rate. In the UFC, he's had some success with his offensive grappling, but he hasn't really gone too it a ton. My biggest concern with Javid is that his strength of schedule is a huge question mark. Outside of his debut against Trevin Jones, I really don't rate any of his opponents at all. Javid has had a lot of success against those guys, but he does some things that I'm just not so sure will be as effective against someone at the level of Tony Gravely. Javid's striking defense relies on him managing range and just sliding back out of the way, which has been fine so far, but when he fights someone who is a good striker, I don't expect it to work quite as well. We also don't have a ton of video of him grappling defensively and Gravely is pretty good there. It isn't that I think Tony Gravely is this world beater, but he is a legitimate UFC caliber fighter who has had success against a much stronger level of competition. Gravely is a very legitimate wrestler who attempts a lot of takedowns and gets them with very solid efficiency. I have a feeling that Gravely can have at least some success there. Gravely isn't anything outstanding on the feet either, but I think he is pretty clearly the best striker Basharat has ever faced. He doesn't throw a ton of volume, but he isn't necessarily low volume either. He has very real power and I think he will be able to connect. I think the experience factor will be huge here and that Gravely may be too much too soon for Basharat.
Bets to consider: Gravely ML +136, U2.5 total rounds -126
I just believe this line is a little off. I think anyone betting Basharat at around the -168 he is at now believes he is the superior striker and I don't disagree that it could be the case. However, I'm just not convinced that he is just going to obviously be noticeably better. Adding in the potential for Gravely to have a good amount of grappling success, I don't really see how someone could be comfortable laying almost -170 on Basharat. While Basharat could just out point Gravely with volume, I think it is equally as possible that Gravely can land takedowns and control him for long stretches. It wouldn't surprise me if Basharat were able to win this fight, I just don't really see how you would get beyond a slight lean around -130 at best for him. As for the under, I don't necessarily have great conviction in it, but it did at least make me think. Gravely has the power to knock Basharat out and if he's going to leave his chin in the air, I think the knockout is in play. Gravely also has this thing where he likes to dive into guillotines and Basharat has shown some ability there, so I think that could be in play as well. I don't think the number is really there to get me over the edge to do it, but I wouldn't fault anyone who did pull the trigger.
Gillian Robertson defeats Mariya Agapova Result: Robertson by submission (2-1)
I feel like we haven't had this clear of a striker vs grappler fight in awhile, but this is about as obvious as it can get. Robertson has been around for awhile and it feels like she never really loses stock regardless of how many fights she wins or loses in a row. We pretty much know what to expect from her at this point. She isn't a very good striker and she really just tries to limit damage on the feet. She doesn't throw a ton of volume and doesn't absorb a ton either. She is looking to get this fight to the ground where she is very dangerous from top. She is aggressive with her ground and pound and can snatch up a variety of submissions. Robertson isn't an outstanding wrestler, but she is pretty solid there. I think her biggest weakness in that regard is that she's very small and very slight. She lacks physicality in a major way and she can be bullied in the clinch or when she gets in on her takedown attempts by the bigger, stronger women in the division. That brings us to Agapova, who is pretty physical and strong. The problem is that I think that is really her best qualities. She's a decent enough boxer, but that is really all. If she can keep this fight standing, she certainly has the advantage there and will be able to do damage while she's fresh. The two concerns on her side is that she hasn't displayed good cardio at all and we've seen her completely empty the tank to the point where she basically can't defend herself any longer. The other is that her grappling has looked very weak to put it nicely. When she's found herself on bottom, she's seemed almost lost and against someone like Robertson, that is a recipe for disaster. As long as Robertson doesn't get knocked out early, she should be able to take over late. Honestly, I'm not sure it will take more than one takedown for her to finish this one. Agapova may be able to stop the takedowns early while she has the energy, but I think Robertson gets her down at some point and probably submits her.
Bets to consider: Robertson ML -150
This is kind of a weird fight to bet as well. It feels like most scenarios lead to Robertson being the value side here, but it could be a tale of two fights. She could get hit a lot early on, but then absolutely dominate and look -1000 from the second round on. I don't always feel great laying juice on someone who is a bit one track like Robertson, but given how bad Agapova has looked on the ground, I do think it would be justified here. I'm leaning towards betting it, but I haven't made any final decisions yet. Her submission prop is +165 and while that is her most likely method of victory, I think the chance of ground and pound is very real. I could see Gillian getting into mount and Agapova just being stuck there and the referee jumps in. The inside the distance is +110, but it also wouldn't surprise me if Robertson just controls her from top either. With all of the different possibilities, I think I would rather play the -150 than try to guess the method on this one.
Daniel Zellhuber defeats Trey Ogden Result: Ogden by decision (2-2)
This is kind of a strange fight, maybe the weirdest on the entire card to be honest. Ogden is a guy who, while I certainly wouldn't call him the worst fighter I've ever seen, I just don't rate him all that highly. His striking is very raw and he just doesn't seem to be that comfortable on the feet. I don't know if he is just anxious to do anything because he's afraid of getting blasted on the counters or if he just stands there and waits for the opening to shoot a takedown, but it isn't pretty either way. He throws virtually 0 volume and really doesn't avoid damage that well either. His wrestling isn't particularly great either, although it is the better part of his game. He is better once the fight reaches the floor as he is at least aggressive with his submission attempts, but I don't really think he's anything out of the ordinary there either. Zellhuber is a somewhat intriguing prospect as he has a lot of tools to work with and he's still so young. I don't think his technical striking is anything to marvel at, but he is pretty solid and he is extremely aggressive. He is going to come out and throw a ton of strikes and do so with decent power as well. The big worry is that we just don't have a ton of video on Zellhuber's grappling. What we can see is kind of old and is pretty ugly. Zellhuber got controlled pretty easily by a pretty low level of competition. Given how young he was at the time, it is reasonable to expect that Zellhuber has improved there, it is just a matter of how much. Ultimately, I don't think Ogden will be able to do enough in the grappling to get himself a win, but I think he could provide Zellhuber some resistance early.
Bets to consider: Zellhuber by KO +140
This is another fight where I really have to reach to even find something to list above. There isn't anything that really stands out to me as a great play, but Zellhuber by knockout at +140 seems at least justifiable. Given what we've seen from Ogden on the feet, it is hard to imagine him standing with Zellhuber for any length of time and absorbing the amount of volume Zellhuber will throw at him. Ogden got out struck by Jordan Leavitt, which just isn't a good look at all. My best guess is that Zellhuber does knockout him out, but I don't really have much conviction in it to play it at that number. The fight goes the distance is +124 and if Ogden can have at least some success wrestling, then that becomes much more likely. I guess if I had to pick a side from the money line perspective it would be Ogden? The tape on Zellhuber on his back was so ugly that even though it wasn't recent and I don't rate Ogden's wrestling that highly, I really don't want to take the chance on Zellhuber at -300. I really just don't think there's an obvious way to play this one.
Loma Lookboonmee defeats Denise Gomes Result: Lookboonmee by decision (3-2)
This is the one fight on the card that may not make for great TV. I've probably been a little higher on Loma than is really necessary, but I just really like picking her fights. She's very steady and brings a skillset that I can rely on fight in and fight out. She knows what she does well and she is very reliable to keep the fight there unless she's just fighting someone noticeably better than her. She is a decent enough striker at range even though she has virtually no power or finishing ability in general. She throws with solid volume and does a pretty nice job of limiting the damage that she absorbs as well. Her easiest path to victory here will be if she can get this fight into the clinch. I think Loma would be able to dominate in the clinch while collecting cage control time while firing off knees to the body and thighs without too much of an issue. I suspect that Loma could get some takedowns from the clinch as well if she really wanted to. Gomes was just on the contender series not too long ago and while she isn't absolutely horrible, she is a bit more limited. She isn't a bad striker necessarily, but she isn't anything out of the ordinary either. Her best qualities are that she's tough and pretty aggressive. She's willing to put strikes out there, but she isn't nearly as technical as Loma. I think that technicality allows Loma to win from distance and Loma will likely dominate the clinch. That sort of limits Gomes to having success in the inside boxing range, which while possible, I just don't think is likely. Loma does an excellent job of keeping the fight where she wants it to be and I just don't think Gomes is refined enough to consistently put herself in a position to land those shots.
Bets to consider: Lookboonmee by decision -110, Gomes finish only +128
I suppose you could play both of these at the same time if you really wanted to. I think Gomes only really path here is to get a knockout and to see her at plus money for finish only markets is a bit odd. Loma just has so little finishing ability that it is hard to imagine her finish anyone of note. Loma also isn't one to really pull away in fights and she tends to just coast right above where her opponent maxes out at. Her wins are always pretty clean, but she never really dominates either. Virtually all of her win equity is going to come via decision to the point where I'm not even sure how she would finish Gomes. I guess if she took her down and put her in a crucifix position or something, but how likely is that? While I think Gomes loses this fight a vast majority of the time, I just think Loma's finishing ability is so nonexistent that the downside to betting Gomes finish only is almost 0. I think I may have just talked myself into playing both of these lines. Not completely sure how I'll play it just yet though.
Trevin Giles defeats Louis Cosce Result: Giles by decision (4-2)
We finish up the stretch of bizarre fights with this one. Cosce finally makes his return to the cage after a long time away following his debut. I really don't know what to say about Cosce and given his time away, I suspect he's made at least some improvements to his game. Cosce isn't the most skilled guy out there, but he has an ok enough base and brings solid athleticism as well. He isn't the cleanest striker in the world, but he is aggressive and brings volume to the table with average or so power. He is an aggressive wrestler as well and while he hasn't always been the most efficient at finishing his takedowns, he is persistent enough to usually get some. The biggest thing for him is that he badly gassed out after one round last time out. He also took quite a bit of damage in that fight as well. Giles is supremely more skilled, he just doesn't always use it to the best of his ability. Skill for skill, this fight really shouldn't even be that competitive. Giles should have an advantage almost everywhere. He is the better striker and is way cleaner and more disciplined. If Cosce comes out with his hair on fire again, I think Giles would be able to punish him on the counters or take him down. Giles is decent enough wrestler and does solid work in the clinch as well. Giles is just a guy who is a bit unreliable in a sense that he really doesn't like to get into the fight. He tries to keep the fight at a low pace where his technical advantages can be at the forefront. If Cosce brings the fight to him and doesn't gas out, he is live here. The problem is that I just don't really know if that is reliable enough while being at all of the technical disadvantages. I do like Giles to win this fight most of the time, but I don't have a ton of confidence in it.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -148
This is another fight where the lines just don't really stand out to me at all. I don't have much conviction in this fight in general, so maybe that is part of the problem. The under 2.5 sitting at almost -150 isn't the highest value play in the world, but I don't mind it. Giles is really the guy that would cause this fight to go to decision. If Cosce gasses out again, I feel like Giles would be able to find the finish at that point without too much issue. At the same time, if Cosce can actually push a high pace for extended minutes, Giles is the kind of guy who can fade under pressure. If Cosce can really put it on Giles, I think he is very live to finish him. The reason I won't take the shot on Cosce is that I think he has too much to overcome for me to have any interest. The technical disadvantages as well as the potential cardio issues are just too much for me to look to make a play at this time.
Damon Jackson defeats Pat Sabatini Result: Jackson by KO (5-2)
I feel like I pick against Pat Sabatini somewhat consistently. I'm not sure if I picked Laramie (I really hope I didn't), but I'm almost positive I picked Tucker Lutz against him, so there's that. Both fighters here are grappling heavy and want to fight at a high pace. It doesn't really jump out to me on the video which guy is going to have an advantage. If forced to choose, I guess I would lean Sabatini as the better pure wrestler, but I do like Jackson's all around grappling. Sabatini is really good from top position, but so is Jackson. The most likely way this fight goes is that one of them is just a tad better and we see that person largely control the fight, but I don't really see anything on the video that makes it clear to me which way that would go. If we get to the point where their grappling is equal and just cancels out, then I think Jackson would win a stand up fight. I think he is just the better striker and he will also throw with more volume. Sabatini has flashed some power at times, but he just doesn't really look to throw strikes much at all on the feet. I'm really looking forward to seeing how this one plays out. I went with Jackson here because he's the better striker and I think he has the better strength of schedule as well. This should be the toughest fight Sabatini has had, so I'm just leaning Jackson's way, but not based on anything too concrete.
Bets to consider: Jackson ML +168
I don't have some master plan or inside knowledge here. This is more so a blind play of the numbers than anything. Given what I just said, does it really make sense for either fighter to be -200 in this fight? I don't think so. I just don't know what people saw that made them think "yes, Pat Sabatini is just clearly the better fighter here" and that is really where this play comes from. They both are grappling heavy and very good there. They both push a good pace. I have no idea who ends up on top, but if one of them does, I think they'll be able to control the fight from that position. If they are forced to stand, I lean Jackson's way. To get that at +168 is simply a process based bet more than any strong opinion that I have on either fighter or tactical component that I foresee playing out.
Anthony Hernandez defeats Marc-Andre Barriault Result: Hernandez by submission (6-2)
This is another fight that I'm pretty interested in seeing play out. Hernandez is a pretty solid all around fighter who can do a lot of things. He's a pretty good wrestler and he's really started to commit to it a lot more. I don't know that his ground game is anything all that special, but he gets off ground and pound and is a submission threat enough that you have to at least respect it. On the feet, he's a decent striker as well. He gets off volume and has average or so power. His biggest strength is that he can push a crazy pace and basically never gets tired. We've seen him really put it on guys and just tire them out to the point that they can't really do anything back to him. The big concern I have for him in this fight is that he doesn't defend strikes especially well. He leaves himself open to be hit a lot and Barriault will capitalize on it if he has the space to do so. Hernandez also has a tendency to get hurt to the body and it happens quite often. If they end up in the clinch or just in boxing range, Barriault will go to the body and he can definitely hurt Hernandez there if he can land solidly. Barriault is the striker here and if this fight takes place at range, it will be his fight to lose. He's the more technical striker and will throw more volume with his hands. He also absorbs more damage than you would like, but he would have the kickboxing advantage at range. My concern for him and the reason I picked against him is that I don't think his takedown defense is that great. He has gotten taken down rather easily at times and with someone as good as Hernandez, I think he ends up going down quite a bit. Barriault does have a pretty good get up game to work his way up, but I don't know if there is an amount of times that he could get up where Hernandez would be too tired to take him back down. I think we ultimately see Hernandez win a competitive decision here with a lot of takedowns.
Bets to consider: Hernandez by decision +185, Barriault by KO +360
I actually found some interesting plays for this fight. I think if this fight goes to decision, it favors Hernandez as his pace, pressure, and wrestling should win out over the long haul in my opinion. I think Hernandez will be able to continue to get Barriault down even when he does work back up more often than not. Barriault isn't completely lost on the ground and I would expect him to be able to defend himself down there unless he was completely exhausted. I think Hernandez's largest win probability comes via decision, so at +185, I think that is at least tempting instead of a -200 on the money line. If Barriault is going to win, I think knockout really is the way. Hernandez doesn't defend strikes well and is vulnerable to the body. If Barriault can start getting his volume off, I think there is a real chance that he can find the finish here. I have my questions if any of this fight will really take place at range, but if it does, Barriault is very live. I think a wrestling heavy win for Hernandez is the most likely outcome, but not nearly enough for me to have any interest in him at -210 or whatever it is right now.
Tanner Boser defeats Rodrigo Nascimento Result: Nascimento by decision (6-3)
This is another fight that will be kind of interesting to watch play out. Boser is definitely the striker here and he's a pretty solid one at that. Boser is a bit of a unique case because he's so small for heavyweight, but he looked a lot more muscular on the scale, so hopefully that means he's prepared to potentially wrestle in this one. Because of his size and quickness, he has a bit of a reputation as being more of a point striker, but I think he has at least decent power. His big weakness comes in the grappling and his takedown defense has been kind of suspect at times. He stops some takedowns, but then other times he goes down really easily. His ground game is even weaker though as he hasn't looked very good off of his back at all. It's at the point where I think if Nascimento got him down once, he probably finishes the fight. Boser's speed and power on the feet is for real though and I think is what ultimately wins him the fight. Nascimento brings the right style into this fight as he is a grappler, I just don't think he's all that special of one. If he were to get this fight to the ground, I think he would finish Boser as he has a solid top game. He's a decent submission threat and he will be aggressive with ground and pound. The worry is that I just don't think he's all that great of a wrestler. I don't think Boser stops takedowns very well, but we've seen Nascimento get into the clinch against other fighters who don't stop takedowns well and he couldn't get them down either. On top of that, there's a real worry that Nascimento gets knocked out as he tries to get into the clinch. Nascimento has virtually no striking defense at all and just eats shots over and over. He really doesn't even try to stop them or evade in any way. He just closes the distance with his head on the center line and I think Boser will probably knock him out when he does. Nascimento doesn't strike well at range either and he doesn't even look remotely comfortable there. I don't see how this fight goes the distance to be honest. Either Nascimento gets blasted closing the distance and gets knocked out or he gets on top and finishes Boser rather quickly. I think the speed of Boser gets this one done.
Bets to consider: Fight Does Not Start Round 3 -138
I don't really see any value on the money line side here as it would take a miracle for this fight to go to decision. The only real way it does in my opinion is if Nascimento just lay and prays him, which he really doesn't do when he's on top. Boser by KO is +120, which is how he's likely to win, so I don't mind the shot there if you're so inclined. Nascimento ITD is +220 if you want to be on that side. I think the fight to not start round 3 at -138 is an interesting place to look as you get the best of both. Assuming that Nascimento isn't just laying in Boser's guard grinding out minutes or Boser isn't just jabbing and landing low kicks from range, this fight should finish. I can't imagine Nascimento just standing at distance and hoping for the best. He's going to close the distance for better or for worse and force the action. He'll either get knocked out or get into the clinch and probably get the fight down. I lean towards the Boser knockout, but this one could reasonably go either way in my opinion.
Joe Pyfer defeats Alen Amedovski Result: Pyfer by KO (7-3)
I'm not going to waste too much time on this one. Pyfer is simply the better fighter here. The UFC just really wants to run the clip of Dana saying "Be Joe Pyfer" as many times as possible and I guess I get it. I don't know what Pyfer's long term ceiling is, but I think he has a lot of good qualities. He's a decent striker, solid wrestler, and all around pretty good athlete. He's powerful, explosive, and well rounded. He should largely have Amedovski covered in all areas. If there's one path for Amedovski here, it's that Pyfer isn't very sound defensively and does leave himself open to be hit. Amedovski is aggressive so it is certainly possible he just comes out and empties the tank and clips him early, but that is really the only chance he has. The path of least resistance here is for Pyfer to take him down, but he should be able to win this fight however he decides he wants to.
Betting thoughts:
This is almost like the Tyson Pedro fight from a few weeks ago. Everything that isn't a complete guess is just juiced into oblivion. I really see no reasonable way to play this fight. I suppose you could take the shot on Amedovski if you really wanted to, but I don't know why you would want to. Is the line starting to get a little crazy? Sure, but I really have no interest in losing money on Alen Amedovski hoping he lands a wild hook in the first 23 seconds of the fight. I mean, the fight doesn't start round 2 is -110. I guess if you want to play that then go ahead, but that isn't even a good number. Pyfer by KO in rounds 1 or 2 is -115, which is better, but he could also easily submit him, so I just don't see where you look to play this fight. I think this is a pass spot by default.
Bill Algeo defeats Andre Fili Result: Fili by decision (7-4)
This could very well end up being the fight of the night. Skill for skill, I think Andre Fili is just the more talented fighter. He's just so damn unreliable and inconsistent. He's a really solid wrestler and he attempts takedowns at a solid rate overall and gets them somewhat consistently. The problem is his consistency in attempting them is rocky. Sometimes he'll attempt like 4 takedowns in a round and then go the rest without attempting any, then his next fight he'll attempt one early and then not go to it until late, and then he'll completely abandon the wrestling his next fight. He's just so hard to predict. On the feet, he's the more technical striker here, but he just doesn't throw out consistent volume. He's too willing to accept the back foot in my opinion as well. On the other side, Algeo is very consistent. He has his strengths and he has his weaknesses and you probably know what you're going to get. Algeo doesn't defend takedowns well, but he does have an ok ground game and creates scrambles pretty consistently. On the feet, he's going to come forward and throw a lot of volume out. He doesn't have great power, but he is willing to engage and just throw as many strikes as he can. If we get a fight where Fili doesn't wrestle, I think Algeo just overwhelms him with the sheer amount of strikes he throws. If we get a fight where Fili does wrestle, it would be closer, but I don't think Fili holds Algeo down long enough to steal rounds and probably still loses on volume. Even though Fili is more talented, he's just way too inconsistent for me to have any confidence in picking him here.
Bets to consider: Algeo ML +104
I know that in life in general (not just MMA betting) I probably place too much emphasis on consistency and reliability, but I can't help it. I think Algeo is the side here and while there may not be a ton of excess value, I think he should be a small favorite. At plus money, I think it is a shot worth taking. Fili isn't reliable round to round let alone fight to fight, so I just think Bill's volume striking based game here will be able to get him the win, even if Fili does chose to wrestle him. I don't really know how anyone would lay minus money on Fili and actually feel good about it. I say that now and flash forward to tomorrow when Fili has 11 minutes of top control and I look like an idiot, but it is what it is.
Chidi Njokuani defeats Gregory Rodrigues Result: Rodrigues by KO (7-5)
I've been a bit higher on Chidi since he joined the UFC than most have and I'm not going to stop that here. I think Chidi is a really solid striker who really knows what he's doing. He's very calm and he manages distance pretty well. He works off of his jab and uses a lot of straight shots in general. I think his length and more technical striking against some of the loopier and wider shots of Rodrigues will serve him really well here. Chidi isn't particularly high volume, but I wouldn't say he's low volume either. He does have good striking defense and really limits the damage he takes. His weakness has always been his grappling, but I think he is actually ok on his back. His wrestling hasn't always been very good and he does go down somewhat easily, but once he is down, he defends himself pretty well. Rodrigues has this reputation of being a really good grappler, but we just haven't really seen that in the UFC so far. He's gotten takedowns at a decent enough rate despite me thinking he's not a fantastic wrestler, but what he does with them is a little strange considering how everyone talks about him. He attempts weird submissions and ends up giving up position at times and even when he has dominant position, he really doesn't seem all that dangerous against fighters who aren't really considered great grapplers themselves. On the feet, Rodrigues is a bit awkward at times. He seems a bit mechanical when he strikes, but he has success there. He is a moderately decent boxer and clearly has legitimate power. I don't think he is cleaner than Chidi though so if he decides to start trading, I think he starts eating some pretty clean shots. Rodrigues doesn't really defend strikes well at all and has been hurt at times in the past. I can't imagine him eating straight rights from Chidi over and over again in this one though. Even if Rodrigues did come out with a grappling heavy gameplan, I don't really think his cardio holds up enough for him to push a high pace over an entire 15 minutes. I think we ultimately see Chidi knock him out here.
Bets to consider: Njokuani by KO +210, Rodrigues ITD +150
I think there are bets for both sides here. To me, Njokuani's main path to victory is via the knockout. If he is landing with enough frequency and doing the kind of damage necessary to win a decision, I think Rodrigues goes down. He eats a ton of shots and has just an ok chin at best, so if Chidi is really landing, I think he puts Rodrigues down. On the other side, if Rodrigues is doing what he needs to do, I think he should finish Chidi as well. We know Rodrigues has power and is going to be aggressive. He could connect and find his own knockout and then he has all of the grappling upside. If he spends a lot of time on top, I would think he could potentially get to Chidi's back and find the submission. I like the Njokuani side personally, but I think there are legitimate bets to make on both sides of this fight.
Cory Sandhagen defeats Song Yadong Result: Sandhagen by KO (8-5)
I did the full preview on this one so if you want a more in depth look, check that out. I'm a huge Sandhagen fan, so keep that in mind, but I just like this matchup for him. In short, I think Sandhagen just has a lot of tools to win this fight. His biggest weakness has come in the grappling and Song isn't really much of a wrestler and even if he was, I don't think he has the cardio to push that for a full five rounds. Sandhagen is longer, he's going to throw way more volume, and he moves way better. Song has to win the early rounds and he probably has to do so on power. He isn't going to keep up with volume and I don't think he has the cardio to steal any late rounds from him. I think it is very possible that this is just a fight where we see Sandhagen is just on a different level. Song really needs to have his opponent stand in front of him and be allowed to exchange in the pocket to be at his best and Sandhagen just isn't going to do that. If Song doesn't knock him out early or severely compromise him, I think Sandhagen runs away with it late.
Bets to consider: Sandhagen rounds 4, 5, or dec -115
I really just think this is Sandhagen's fight, so the best way to get his price down in my opinion is taking him in rounds 4, 5, or dec at -115. Song is pretty durable and it would surprise me if he were to get finished early. If he gets finished at all, it will come late after he slows down and gets tired. Sandhagen will have a huge advantage late and will likely have the volume edge in every round. Unless Song knocks him out early, I just don't see how he keeps up with the volume, pace, and movement. We've seen Sandhagen take big shots before and not get knocked out, so I don't think there's really anything Song is going to do that he hasn't seen before.
That's it from me on this card. What do you guys think? Which fight are you most looking forward to? Leave all of your picks, bets, and predictions in the comments. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Tony Gravely ML .75 units at +136 to win 1.02 units - .75 units
Gillian Robertson ML 1 unit at -150 to win .67 units + .67 units
Loma Lookboonmee by decision .5 units at -110 to win .45 units + .45 units
Damon Jackson ML .25 units at +168 to win .42 units + .42 units
Bill Algeo ML .5 units at +104 to win .52 units - .5 units
Chidi Njokuani by KO .25 units at +210 to win .53 units - .25 units
Cory Sandhagen round 4, 5, or dec 1.25 units at -115 to win 1.09 units + 1.09 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 1.13 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 8.71 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 9.84 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 5
Previous Year to Date Record: 233 - 142
Updated Year to Date Record: 241 - 147
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