Unfortunately, I just didn't have time to do the preview for today's main event between Yan Xiaonan and Mackenzie Dern. I thought I would be able to get it done, but between a test that I had to do for an interview and my grandfather getting surgery done, I just ran out of time. If there is any upside, it's that I don't think Dern vs Xiaonan is all that difficult of a fight to break down, so everything I say here should be sufficient for you to know what to expect or look for. This card is really flying under the radar as it is a bit of a strange one. Dern is a fan favorite and I know she may not be a traditional headliner, but I think the main event is just fine. The rest of the fights have some intrigue just based on some matchup dynamics that I'm interested to see exactly how they play out. I think a lot of the betting lines have gotten a bit strange as well, but we'll talk about that as we get to them. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Randy Costa defeats Guido Cannetti Result: Cannetti by submission (0-1)
I can't imagine that this fight lasts all that long, but it should be fun for as long as we get to see it. I like Costa here mostly due to his athletic advantages. He's a pretty decent striker overall and he's very aggressive. I wouldn't say his power is other worldly, but he has a knack for finding knockouts either by just overwhelming his opponent or landing big kicks. Costa is the much younger guy in this one, he's the better athlete, and will have a volume and speed advantage as well. The big downside with Costa is that he has about a round of cardio before he's basically done. He fights at such a high pace early that if someone survives the first round, they can usually put it on Costa and finish him after that. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Cannetti really is the fighter to take advantage of this at this stage of his career. Cannetti can wrestle and we've seen that sort of grind heavy style give Costa problems at times, but Cannetti really hasn't tried to wrestle in awhile. At his age, I'm just not sure that he really has the cardio to push a high pace either. Cannetti is live on the feet because he has real knockout ability himself. He throws big power strikes with his hands and will wing hooks and overhands with the best of them. He also throws really powerful kicks, mostly to the body and legs. What worries me for him is that a lot of his offense on the feet happens in short spurts where he'll throw an extended combination, but then he'll rest. When he's not in the middle of one of his bursts, he is very willing to be the guy moving backwards. With someone who is going to pressure as much as Costa, I really think that could be a recipe for disaster. Unless Guido can catch him on one of those early bursts, I think he gets overwhelmed with volume and eventually gets finished as I don't think his chin is going to hold up to that kind of speed and power at over 40 years old.
Bets to consider: Cannetti ML +240
In reality, the best way to play this fight would have been to jump on the unders and doesn't go the distance props early, but at this point, they're all juiced out of play for me. The under 1.5 rounds is all the way up at -192 and that is just a little too far for my liking. The worry there, at least for me, is if Cannetti does wrestle and has success there. That's why I think that he might be the play. I definitely don't want anything to do with Costa at -330. As much as there is to like about his game, I'm not sure how you could feel good about laying that kind of money on him when he only has a few minutes of gas in the tank. I don't really want to lose money on someone over 40 like Cannetti, at least in a matchup like this, but if he somehow makes it out of the first round, he has a real chance. With all of the round props juiced, I think this is probably just a pass spot for me. If you have access to a book that still has the under 1.5 around -150 or better, I think that is the way to go.
Chelsea Chandler defeats Julija Stoliarenko Result: Chandler by KO (1-1)
This is a tough fight to figure out. Chandler is making her UFC debut and is pretty inexperienced on the regional scene, so the biggest question mark for her is simply her strength of competition. This could end up being a situation where Stoliarenko is just significantly better than anyone she's ever faced Chandler ends up being overmatched. With that said, I think Chandler does a lot of decent things. She's still growing as a fighter and it shows, but I think she has a decent base everywhere. Her striking isn't anything all that special, but she seems competent there when she lets her hands go and throws some nice straight shots at times. Her best route to victory in this one probably comes in the clinch where she has had a lot of success. She will be the bigger and stronger fighter in this one and with Stoliarenko coming up to featherweight, she should have a nice advantage there. Stoliarenko has had her troubles in the clinch in the past, so that seems like a position where Chandler could succeed. Chandler can also probably take Stoliarenko down, but that will be putting the fight into Stoliarenko's realm, so she'll have to be careful there. With Stoliarenko, she is the more experienced fighter, but she hasn't always had success against that more proven competition. She's showed flashes here and there, but they're really only flashes. Her striking isn't anything special either and she's on the lower volume side. She does get hit a bit as well and we know she has struggled in the clinch. Her path to victory is to get the fight down and let her aggressive submission game go to work. The problem there is that she just isn't that good of a wrestler. She struggles to get fights down most of the time and it shows as she only gets her takedowns at a 22% rate in the UFC. She's really limited to getting a submission from guard in a lot of cases. I think there is a legitimate chance that she could do that here, but I think Chandler probably stays safe. The other very real possibility is that she could pull guard and then end up reversing position. While I don't know that Chandler is high enough level to just shut that kind of stuff down with no issue, it still doesn't feel all that likely in my opinion. Maybe this does end up being a levels fight and Stoliarenko is just the better fighter, but it really feels like Chandler shouldn't have an issue winning minutes and I think she can avoid the submissions here.
Bets to consider: Stoliarenko finish only -160
This is an interesting fight to bet as there are so many potential outcomes here. The fight is essentially lined as a pick em right now with Stoliarenko sitting at -115 and I think that is probably correct. I really don't have a confident take on either side and the experience factor for Stoliarenko could be the deciding factor. If I felt more confident in her ability to end up on top or get her own takedowns, I would be much more willing to suggest a ML bet, but with that hole, I really don't feel good about her. I think a huge chunk of her win equity comes via submission. The only way she realistically wins a decision is if this is indeed a levels fight and she can sweep Chandler and ride out rounds on top. In that case, she might be able to get a submission anyways. I think taking the shot on Stoliarenko finish only is the way I would want to play this fight and I'm not sure if I'll actually do it yet or not. I don't really project Chandler to be much of a finisher at this level, especially in this matchup as her clearest path will be in the clinch. If the money line continues to slide and Chandler gets into plus money territory, I would consider taking a flyer on it, but at this stage, I think Stoliarenko finish only is the way to play it if you want to.
Maxim Grishin defeats Philipe Lins Result: cancelled
This is probably my least favorite fight on the entire card. I think that, at the end of the day, Grishin is just the better fighter here. Grishin is a significantly better kick boxer both offensively and defensively. He does a good job of keeping the fight at range where he wants it and should be able to land strikes fairly consistently. Grishin's wrestling is inconsistent, but I think he should be able to keep the fight upright here. If he was more reliable to strike with more volume, I would have a lot more confidence in him, but he doesn't, so here we are. My one concern and I think Lins' biggest path to victory is going to be long stretches in the clinch. We've seen Grishin get stuck along the cage at times, so Lins may be able to just pin him to the side of the octagon and win that way. Beyond that, I think Lins may just be a bit behind. I don't think he is going to be the level of wrestler that could get Grishin down and even if he did, I don't think he would be able to hold him down. On the feet, I just don't think Lins really has the skillset to do much against Grishin. He's equally as low volume as Grishin, but he'll be behind in terms of technical striking in a major way. Grishin is very sound defensively, so I don't expect Lins to be landing very often. I don't think he has the power or the speed to really negate any of the gap technically. Lins doesn't really do well when his opponent keeps him at range and that is what Grishin excels at. Even though I don't think Grishin is amazing, I think they style dynamics favor him here. Lins only route besides something ridiculous is going to be a lot of cage clinch control.
Bets to consider: FGTD -116
If you forced me to play the money line in this fight, I think I prefer the Grishin side at -188. That is a bit high for someone who doesn't offensively grapple and doesn't strike with volume, but I really just don't see much of a path for Lins. I think Grishin should win this one without too much of an issue, but his inability to pull away is a cause for anxiety at times. I think the real way to attack this fight is to play the fight goes the distance. I'm not sure why this fight goes the distance is lined at only -116 as I don't see a ton of finishing upside for either guy here. Lins really isn't much of a finisher at all and I don't really see him doing enough damage on the feet to ever really get close to a finish striking. I don't really put a ton of stock into his ability to find a submission here either. On the Grishin side, his volume really isn't there to overwhelm Lins and I don't really think he has amazing power either. I suppose if Lins gasses out badly enough he could be finished that way, but that is really the only path I see for this one ending inside the distance. At essentially a pick em price, I like this one to go the full 15.
Krzystof Jotko defeats Brendan Allen Result: Allen by submission (1-2)
This is a bit of a strange fight as well. For the second fight in a row, I'm back a style of fighter that I don't normally pick or bet, but I guess there's a time and place for everything. Jotko is a very technical striker and that will probably be how he wins a vast majority of the minutes in this fight. His striking isn't especially flashy or fancy, but he just has this way of really confusing his opponents and not allowing them to get to their game. He's just a really tough guy to fight against. He doesn't give away anything on the feet and you really have to earn every strike you land. At the same time, he stuff takedowns well and can work back to his feet if he does go down. The reason I'm not higher on him is that he just isn't really that dangerous of a fighter. He's more of an outside point fighter on the feet and he's on the low volume side. He's sort of content to stay on the outside and land single strikes at a time with some short combinations mixed in. He isn't going to get too aggressive or really poor it on, but he does a good job of setting up his strikes and landing what he does put out there. Jotko can wrestle as well. He's not particularly dangerous with submissions or ground and pound, but he does a good job of getting the fight down when the opportunity is presented to him. Brendan Allen is a fighter who I go back and forth on. I really like some of the things he does, but his consistency fails him at times. He's a moderately well rounded fighter, but I would say he's more of a striker than a grappler. Allen's biggest advantage here is going to be his ability to strike with more volume. He is going to put more out there than Jotko typically, but I think Jotko's technical striking and defensive prowess could mitigate a lot of that. Allen probably has the power advantage as well, but I just don't really think he's going to land much in this one. Allen's weakness is really in his wrestling. He attempts a fair amount of takedowns, but he only lands them at a 41% rate and Jotko is pretty solid defensively there. Allen is much better once he's actually on the ground and will attempt submissions, but we just saw Jotko stay inside of Gerald Meerschaert's guard for extended minutes and didn't have much of an issue, so I don't really see Allen submitting him. I think Jotko is in a pretty decent spot with this matchup.
Bets to consider: Jotko ML -122, FGTD -154
At the current price of -122, I think a play on Jotko would be justified. His technical advantage on the feet should allow him to control most of the exchanges and he will probably be able to land the cleaner shots. Allen's striking defense leaves a lot to be desired, so I don't see why landing cleanly would be a problem for Jotko. At the same time, if Jotko came out with a wrestling heavy gameplan, he would probably have an even easier time. Allen really doesn't stop takedowns at all, so I think Jotko could ride out a lot of this fight from top position if he really wanted to. However, with Jotko being low volume, I wouldn't be on this super heavy, but I do like this spot for him. As for the fight goes the distance, Jotko just isn't a finisher. He doesn't throw enough to get attritional type of knockouts and he doesn't have the power to just get the one hitter quitter type of knockouts. He doesn't have the submission ability to look there and he's not really aggressive enough with ground and pound to get any TKOs on the mat. Allen may not be the most durable guy in the world, but I just don't really see how he gets finished here. I don't really see much merit to an Allen finish either as his power is really average at best and I just don't really see him landing too much on the feet. He is willing to attempt submissions, but we've seen Jotko deal with much more dangerous submission artists without too much of an issue, so I don't put too much stock there either. I think both of these are solid plays.
Jesse Ronson defeats Joaquim Silva Result: Silva by KO (1-3)
This is a bit of a strange fight as we get two fighters who are in the midst of a rough patch. Jesse Ronson returned from suspension against Rafa Garcia in his last fight and he really didn't look very good. If we take that as an outlier, Ronson has at least a solid set of skills. He's not much of a wrestler offensively or defensively. He doesn't really even attempt takedowns and he doesn't stop them very well either. He does have at least some submission ability if this fight hits the ground, but he will want to avoid that against Silva. On the feet, I don't think Ronson is really anything special, but he has some power and throws with mediocre volume. He has ok striking defense as well, which should be important in this one. The huge question mark is if Ronson without the PEDs is the guy that we saw against Garcia because he really didn't look like the same fighter. If so, he may be in trouble here, but I think at least some of it was due to the time off. Despite those concerns, I'm not really sure Silva is the guy. Silva has the reputation of being a really good jiu-jitsu player, but he almost never attempts takedowns, so I don't think Ronson will really have to worry about that. On the feet, Silva can get a bit wild and he's going to wing some powerful strikes. It shows as he only lands 37% of his strikes, which is noticeably low for this level. He throws with good volume and has serious power if he can land them clean. The problem for Silva has been that he just takes too much damage. He's also been knocked out two fights in a row rather quickly by guys who aren't really known for their power. Nasrat Haqparast got him in the opening minute of the second round and then he got knocked out by Ricky Glenn in 37 seconds. That really isn't a great sign and that is really what has me on the Ronson side. This fight is probably close to a 50/50 fight as it might just be a matter of who lands the first clean shot, but I think Ronson is just a bit more buttoned up on the feet and think that could be the difference.
Bets to consider: Ronson ML +124, U2.5 rounds -150
On the money line side, I just think things have gotten a bit too wide. Given how wild this fight projects to be and how questionable Silva's chin has looked recently, I'm not sure how one could feel comfortable laying -150 on him. At the same time, I'm not really running to the window with my money to bet on Ronson either. If he had looked a bit more like himself last time then I would be much more willing to make a play, but with how bad he looked, I'll probably just pass. With that said, I would much rather be holding a Ronson +124 ticket than a Silva -150 if they're just trading in the pocket. If Silva had any history of being able to get takedowns then I would be happy to bet him, but he just doesn't even attempt takedowns let alone get them successfully. I just don't see how this fight is lined too much past -110/-110, so if I had to pick a side, it would be Ronson at plus money. The much easier play is the under 2.5 rounds. I think -150 is a fine number to play because I just don't really know what a decision here even looks like. Either Ronson is going to look like he did last time and he probably gets knocked out or he's going to be closer to what he was previous and he may still get knocked out. If Ronson is ok, then I don't really think Silva's chin is in a spot where it can hold up for extended minutes. I just think at some point, one of these guys gets clipped with a power shot and goes down before too long.
Aleksei Oleinik defeats Ilir Latifi Result: Latifi by decision (1-4)
Hopefully this fight actually happens because it should be an interesting one. This fight has so many potential outcomes that I really don't even know what to say. When it comes to Latifi, his style really isn't very fun to watch. He's primarily a wrestler and when he gets on top, he is one of those old school lay and pray type of fighters that don't really exist too much anymore. I don't even think he's that good of a wrestler, but Oleinik doesn't stop takedowns hardly at all. On the feet, Latifi isn't completely void of power, but it isn't much either. The issue there is that he doesn't throw strikes. He is perfectly content to literally stand there and do nothing. He probably has enough power to knock Oleinik out because his durability is virtually gone at his age, but I don't suspect Latifi is going to change now. On the Oleinik side, he also isn't much of a striker, but he has a massive reach advantage and at least some power. He isn't technical at all and is essentially limited to wild overhand lefts. Oleinik will also want this fight on the ground and he is more comfortable on his back. I suspect that Oleinik will essentially let Latifi take him down so he can go to work and try to submit him from guard. We've seen Oleinik pull off some strange chokes from his back and it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he were to pull that off here. The other dynamic at play is that Oleinik basically has no chin left and very little cardio. That essentially leaves us in a situation where I favor Oleinik on the feet just based on his willingness to actually do something. However, Latifi could probably knock him out if he actually connects. Oleinik could also just fall over from a jab if the fight gets extended and he gasses out. However, if he doesn't gas out or even if he does, there's the potential that Latifi just throws nothing and loses a decision. Latifi is going to need top time in order to win. However, laying in Oleinik's guard is almost begging to be caught in a submission. There is also the possibility that the submission ability of Oleinik scares Latifi away from wrestling and then we end up with a stand up fight between two guys with no cardio where one is 46 years old with no durability, but power and a 7 inch reach advantage and the other guy who doesn't throw strikes. I have no idea what we're going to see, but I'm going with Oleinik.
Bets to consider: Oleinik ML +144
Now, after just reading what I just went over above, does that sound like a fight where one guy should be -180? I didn't think so. I just don't really know where the confidence would come from to lay Latifi -180. He just doesn't have any offense to his game. His strategy in all of his fights is to throw a handful of over hand rights a round and shoot for takedowns. If he lands a takedown, he just lays on top of you and waits for the round to end or the referee to stand the fight up. If he did anything at all, he would probably knock Oleinik out, but he only throws a few strikes a minute. If we see a fight with extended minutes on the feet, Oleinik is going to be throwing and landing more strikes. He could get hit once and just go out cold of course, but he is going to win the minutes on the feet. I could honestly see a situation where Oleinik wins a decision from his back because his submission attempts are the only thing that happens in the entire round. I'm not particularly excited about the prospect of betting on someone who is closer to my dad's age than my own, but this line is almost forcing me to. I don't know how to approach the O/U 1.5 because Oleinik could get knocked out at any moment and I'm not sure how Latifi is even going to approach this fight. I think I would be more inclined to play the over, but I wouldn't feel good about it.
Mike Davis defeats Viacheslav Borshchev Result: Davis by decision (2-4)
This is actually a pretty fun fight and one that I'm looking forward to quite a bit. We haven't seen Mike Davis in a little bit, so I'm glad that he's able to make a return. At his best, he's a moderately well rounded fighter and a pretty talented one. On the feet, he's primarily a boxer and is more than willing to exchange. He is going to be high output and he will be willing to take damage in order to land his own. His chin has been pretty durable though to allow him to fight that kind of fight. He's a solid athlete as well and that helps him in the wrestling. He's not an outstanding wrestler, but he will usually mix in a takedown attempt here and there. He averages 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and only gets them at a 33% rate, but he should have the advantage there in this fight. Slava is a pretty solid striker in his own right. I think he will be better from the outside here as he does a better job of mixing in kicks. He is also willing to exchange though and he isn't afraid of a brawl. Wrestling is a major weakness as he doesn't stop takedowns at all and can be held down at times as well. I don't know that Davis is the level of grappler that is really just going to ground control his way to a win though, so maybe Slava could get back to his feet here. I think a lot of this fight ends up taking place on the feet with Davis landing a takedown or two maybe just to put a stamp on a round. I ultimately lean towards Davis because I think he is a slightly better striker and he has the grappling advantage, but it wouldn't surprise me if Slava found a way to steal this one.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -118
If I had to go with a money line play, I guess it would be Slava, but I wouldn't feel good about it. -192 for Davis just seems a little too far, but given how bad Slava's wrestling has looked, there is a possibility that Davis can just grapple him to death for the full 15 minutes. I don't think that is what we'll see, but it's enough for me to not really want to play Slava here. At the same time, I don't want to lay juice on Davis because he is coming off of some injuries and if he's just going to be standing and trading in the pocket with Slava, that isn't really a -200 kind of style. This is a pass on the money line for me, but a better play is the under. I expect these guys to get after it on the feet and eventually someone should go down. I'm not sure exactly how durable Slava is and Davis is certainly going to test that. Slava has very real power himself and with the time away, I don't think it is unreasonable to expect Davis may not be used to taking the kind of damage that he is accustomed to. At around -120, I'm content to hope someone goes down because both of these guys are going to dish out a ton of damage.
John Castaneda defeats Daniel Santos Result: Santos by KO (2-5)
This is another pretty interesting matchup in my opinion. Castaneda is off to a good start so far in his time in the UFC. He's one of those fighters who benefits more from his physical tools than his pure MMA skills though. He has a solid all around base and he pairs it with a good chin and good cardio. He has largely been able to outwork his opponents so far and that has allowed him to be successful to date. He has taken a bit more damage than you may want, but that is one of the only true negatives I can say about him to this point. The downside to Castaneda in my mind is that he just doesn't have much in terms of stand out abilities. His power is decent, but that is about it. I don't think he's a great striker and he's probably an average at best wrestler. At some point, he's going to run into someone who he doesn't have a cardio advantage over and I just don't know how his skills hold up in that scenario. While I think Santos can make this competitive, I'm not really sure he's the guy to pull the upset. Santos really isn't much of a grappler or wrestler at all. If anyone is going to have success there, it will be Castaneda. On the feet, I think Santos can match the pace of Castaneda, but I don't really think he's anything special either. I think the well roundedness of Castaneda is probably enough for him to edge out these rounds, but I think this fight will be closer than some people are giving it credit for.
Bets to consider: Santos ML +148
This is another spot where I think this line is just getting a bit out of hand. Castaneda is a guy who we saw get beaten up pretty badly by Nathaniel Wood in his debut. Then he was fighting competitively with Eddie Wineland until his aging chin gave way. After that, he was fighting competitively with Miles Johns until Johns gassed out completely. I just don't really see that kind of guy as someone who is playable at -185 against other competent opponents. Castaneda should certainly be a favorite here, but I think this is just too far. At the same time, I don't really know that Santos is the guy I want to play. As a pure play of the numbers, it is justifiable, but I just don't think I have the conviction to pull the trigger. I think he can make this competitive and cover his price, but I'm not sure if I'll do it.
Sodiq Yusuff defeats Don Shainis Result: Yusuff by submission (3-5)
I'll keep this one short. Shainis is stepping in on short notice to make his UFC debut and he's getting a ranked opponent. He's very inexperienced and I think that will show here. He has some ability to wrestle, but I don't really expect him to have much success. I don't really view him as a true UFC level fighter, so while he may be able to clinch Sodiq up early, I don't expect that to last. Being that this is short notice, I doubt he'll have the cardio to really push that kind of grappling pace for a full 15 minutes even if he wanted to. Sodiq should be able to stop those takedowns and when the fight is at range, Sodiq should have no issues. Shainis doesn't seem to defend strikes all that well and against someone of Sodiq's caliber, he's probably going to get hurt and knocked out before too long. Sodiq is an aggressive and powerful striker who mixes in kicks with his hands very well. He should just be the better athlete and fighter here. The finish should come before too long.
Bets to consider: U1.5 rounds +120
I like the under 1.5 rounds here even though with some wrestling from Shainis, it could get close. I just think any extended range exchanges are going to quickly see Sodiq land some big shots and Shainis won't likely be able to hold up. Getting it at plus money is what really makes this playable as anything with a - in front would be a pass for me. Obviously, playing Sodiq at -1200 does you know good as there's virtually no way to cover that price tag unless he actually knocks him out in 3 seconds. Maybe Shainis wrestles his way to the 8 minute mark and I look stupid here, but I just think it is worth the shot at this price.
Raoni Barcelos defeats Trevin Jones Result: Barcelos by decision (4-5)
If you're a returning reader, you may know that I've always been a fan of Barcelos and like a lot of what he does. However, he's coming off of his worst UFC performance where he lost to Victor Henry making his UFC debut. Barcelos does a lot of good things. He's a good striker with good power in his hands and solid kicks. He's a solid grappler as well. He's a decent enough wrestler both offensively and defensively. He has a competent ground and submission game to go with it. His huge weakness is that he is very irresponsible defensively. He is more willing to exchange than he should be and he is content to just trade in the pocket at times. He absorbs way too much damage and I worry that it is starting to catch up with him as he ages. Not looking good in your last fight, not being very active, taking a lot of damage, and getting older isn't exactly a recipe for success. With all that said, I don't think Trevin Jones is the guy to expose all of those concerns. Jones is just a power reliant striker. He doesn't wrestle much and I don't think he's particularly great on the ground. He is very low volume on the feet as well. His best attribute is his power and he has found knockouts against some tough opponents. The problem for Jones is if he doesn't get a knockout, he really has no other way to win. He's going to get out struck badly on numbers and if there is any grappling, he'll be at a disadvantage. All the things I said about Barcelos before do mean that Jones has a shot here, but it isn't any more than just a prayer really. If Barcelos was going to sell out for a win here, I think he could wrestle Jones pretty easily for all three rounds.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +120
This is a pretty tough fight to be honestly. There aren't a lot of clear spots to look to. I really have no interest in betting Jones just because his win condition is so narrow. I don't want to lay -280 on Barcelos either, especially after how he looked against Henry. I think playing the under at plus money may be the route. This covers the scenario where age and damage has just caught up with Barcelos and he's just done. It also covers Barcelos overwhelming Jones on the feet or taking him down and really doing damage. If Barcelos commits to taking this fight to the ground, I think he could TKO or submit Jones. It isn't a bet that I feel supremely confident in, but at plus money, it may be worth a small dart throw.
Randy Brown defeats Francisco Trinaldo Result: Brown by decision (5-5)
Randy Brown is generally a fighter that I like. He does a lot of good things. He's just so damn inconsistent at times. Brown ins a tall, long guy for this division and he can generally use it well. He likes to throw a lot of kicks and keep the distance. He strikes with pretty good volume and usually is able to limit damage fairly well. The real troubles for Brown tend to come in the wrestling where he can be taken down and controlled for stretches. He also isn't necessarily the most durable guy in the world. If Randy Brown fought at or close to his best every time out, he would probably be ranked or at least close to it. Trinaldo is obviously getting up there in age at this point, but he's still going strong. Much like I said about Jotko earlier, he's one of these fighters that are just tough to get going against. He has a tendency to find his way into a lot of really close fights and ends up on the right side of close decisions a lot of the time. He feels a lot like Andrei Arlovski and Brad Tavares in that sense. They just have this knack for winning close decisions at a far greater rate than a normal fighter. Trinaldo isn't much of a wrestler either, but if he did find himself on top, he could probably hold Brown down. On the feet, he's lower volume, but he does a good job of suppressing the volume that comes back his way as well. He doesn't take much damage at all. His chin has started to fade just a bit as he's gotten up there in age, but he still isn't getting knocked out, so I kind of think this ends up being a close fight. I do prefer the youth and length of Brown here, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Trinaldo found a way to do it again.
Bets to consider: Trinaldo ML +250
The lines on this fight just aren't adding up to me. The math ain't mathing as the kids like to say. I feel like I say this once a month about a fight and here we are. Somehow, Randy Brown is a -325 favorite, yet the over 2.5 rounds is -154. I'm not really understanding the scenario where Randy Brown covers his price, yet simultaneously the fight is going over at that rate. For Randy Brown to justify that kind of price, he has to finish this fight at a sizeable rate in my opinion. If this fight is going over a majority of the time, then I don't think Brown looks over -300. If Trinaldo gets this fight to a decision, it is probably a pretty competitive fight. There aren't a ton of guys who go out and just win clean, dominant decisions over Francisco Trinaldo. This has to mean that either the money line is wrong or the line on the over is wrong. Given how inconsistent Brown has been over his career, I kind of lean towards the side that says his line is just way too wide. He's not reliable enough for me to say he should be -300 against almost anyone, let alone a tough opponent. I really don't want to sit here and lose money on another fighter over 40, but I guess I'm going to have to.
Yan Xiaonan defeats Mackenzie Dern Result: Yan by decision (6-5)
Call me contrarian if you must, but I kind of like Xiaonan here. This fight projects to be a pretty binary one. Either Dern is going to get the fight to the ground and submit Yan or she isn't going to get a takedown and she'll get beaten up. We all know Dern has some of the best BJJ in MMA regardless of gender, but that really only comes into play if she can get the fight to the ground. She's landed her takedowns at a 9% rate in the UFC and that just isn't good enough. I know she's been improving on the feet and while that is the case, she's not going to hang with Xiaonan there. Yan fought to a split decision against Marina Rodriguez who dominated Dern on the feet. Everyone keeps referencing how bad Yan looked against Carla Esparza and while she did look bad on her back in that fight, Carla is one of the two best wrestlers in WMMA history. I don't think looking bad on bottom against that is an indictment of the career of Yan Xiaonan by any means. I don't think Dern is the kind of fighter who is going to bully Yan to the ground in the clinch and Yan has shown an ability to wrestle herself. While that has been offensively, she has shown to understand positions. If she ends up on bottom against Dern, she probably does get finished, but I'm far from sold that the fight gets there. Everyone said the same when Dern fought Rodriguez and Dern got that fight to the ground and Marina survived that exchange and won the fight. Dern just hasn't proven that she can take fights to the ground consistently and if she doesn't, Yan is going to out strike her badly. She's more technical, more diverse, and faster. She has the straighter shots and more power as well. Dern also takes damage on the feet, so she won't have any problem landing, especially with how aggressive she is with her volume. I just like Xiaonan to keep it standing and pick up a win.
Bets to consider: Xiaonan ML +198
I'm not going to rehash everything I just said for why I like the Xiaonan side. No other plays really stand out to me. If you want to play Dern, I think playing her rounds 1, 2, or 3 line at +100 is probably the way to do so. She's only going to need one takedown in all likelihood, so if she is going to get it, it will probably be within that time frame. In my mind, if we make it to rounds 4 and 5, that probably means that Dern is struggling to ground the fight. That would mean Yan is the side to be on anyways, so at least getting Dern at +100 was better than losing on a -250 ML ticket, a -110 sub ticket, or a -150 ITD ticket. Dern's money line is at -250 which just doesn't make sense to me. She has a 9% takedown rate in the UFC, yet she's being lined at 71% in a fight where she has no chance if she doesn't get a takedown. Think about this for a second. It is estimated in the United States that 1 out of every 7 adults can't read. Yet that is a higher percentage than Dern gets takedowns. Adult Americans can't read at a 1 in 7 rate, but Dern gets takedowns at slightly worse than a 1 in 10 rate, so, keep that in mind. I just don't trust Dern's wrestling at all, let alone enough to say she can win this fight at over 70%. I think Yan is clearly the side with the value.
As usual, I'm up late to finish this, but that's it for this week. Leave all of your picks and bets below. Let me know any other thoughts you may have. Thanks for reading, enjoy the card, and have a good weekend. The official bets will be below and also on Bet MMA now. Click the hyperlink in the intro to see my page there and see all of the stats and feedback that they offer.
Official Bets:
Grishin/Lins FGTD .75 unit at -116 to win .65 units Void
Maxim Grishin ML 1 unit at -178 to win .56 units Void
Krzystof Jotko ML .5 units at -122 to win .41 units - .5 units
Jotko/Allen FGTD 1 unit at -154 to win .65 units - 1 unit
Ronson/Silva U2.5 rounds 1 unit at -150 to win .67 units + .67 units
Aleksei Oleinik ML .25 units at +144 to win .36 units - .25 units
Davis/Borshchev U2.5 rounds .5 units at -118 to win .42 units - .5 units
Yusff/Shainis U1.5 rounds .5 units at +120 to win .6 units + .6 units
Francisco Trinaldo ML .25 units at +250 to win .63 units - .25 units
Yan Xiaonan ML .5 units at +198 to win .99 units + .99 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - .24 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 9.84 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 9.60 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 6 - 5
Previous Year to Date Record: 241 - 147
Updated Year to Date Record: 247 - 152
Comments
Post a Comment