We're finally back with another fight card and I honestly think it's a solid one. It won't be a card of the year candidate, but it isn't nearly as bad as some people will lead you to believe. I said yesterday that even if some of these fights aren't that great or aren't your cup of tea, then they shouldn't stick around too long as I expect most of these fights to finish. I also said yesterday that I'm not going to be able to give the normal pre-fight stuff that I normally would because I am traveling all week for a series of interviews. I'm going to try and squeeze out a reaction to this card on Wednesday to post Thursday, but there won't be anything UFC 280 until the picks and bets Saturday morning. The betting took a step back last week but has generally been pretty solid since I added it in, so we're looking to get back on track there. The picks on the other hand have been very mediocre for a bit of a stretch, so that needs to be turned around. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Pete Rodriguez defeats Mike Jackson Result: Jackson by KO (1-0)
I did say this was a decent card, but it isn't because of this fight. We have media member turned fighter Mike Jackson returning for a fourth UFC fight and I don't really expect to go too well for him. Despite being the older fighter here, he just isn't that experienced and I'm not really even sure what his path to victory is here. He does have decent size and length, so that will serve him well and he has shown an ability to evade strikes at times. He showed some skill when he defeated CM Punk, but that is really about it. Rodriguez stepped in on short notice to face Jack Della Maddalena and didn't stand much of a chance. Rodriguez doesn't have much experience as a pro, but at least he has some more experience as an amateur. I'm not sure he's truly UFC level either, but he does at least have some noticeable skills. He's extremely aggressive and will come out hot looking for a knockout. He has at least respectable power as well. Jackson was hurt badly by Mickey Gall, who doesn't have much power and was also hurt by Dean Barry, who didn't seem to be UFC caliber either. I imagine that it only takes a few shots from Rodriguez to put Jackson away here. If Jackson can somehow extend the fight and make it into the later rounds, he may have a chance as Rodriguez has only fought past 3 minutes once and it came as an amateur.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 2 +150
These lines are largely juiced into oblivion. Everyone is expecting Rodriguez to find the early knockout, which is probably the most likely outcome. However, Jackson has done a respectable job of limiting damage at times. Rodriguez is going to be pretty undersized in this one, so I could see Jackson having so success in making him miss early. Having a fight to start round 2 at +150 when neither guy is a deadly finisher is pretty dramatic, even with Jackson's durability concerns. All of the unders are way too far gone to even consider at this point as well as methods of victory for Rodriguez. Seeing his ML at -700 is pretty jarring, but I really couldn't even tell you what a Jackson win looks like. I suppose if Rodriguez just goes crazy and doesn't land the kill shot, he could just completely death gas, but I don't really know what Jackson is going to do to win this fight otherwise. I think the fight starts round 2 at plus money is the way to go, but I'm not particularly compelled to play a fight that is this low level.
Tatsuro Taira defeats CJ Vergara Result: Taira by submission (2-0)
This is a pretty good fight and one I'm looking forward to quite a bit. Taira is a pretty highly regarded prospect and it is easy to see why. His grappling is for real and he's incredibly dangerous once he gets to a good position. Unfortunately, I don't think his pure wrestling is anything special, but he's such a gifted grappler that I think he could find his way to Vergara's back directly from the clinch. My big concern for Taira is what happens if he doesn't get the takedown. He seems to have at least some degree of power, but he is dangerously low output on the feet. He just doesn't really throw that many strikes at all and against someone like Vergara, he'll fall behind badly. Vergara has a lot of qualities that I generally like to back, but I don't think this is a great matchup for him. He's a guy who's going to come forward, throw a lot of strikes, and he's pretty tough. His striking defense needs some work, but Taira isn't going to throw enough to really make him pay for it too often. What worries me for him is that I'm not sure he's ready for someone at Taira's level on the ground. Vergara has had his guard passed pretty easily whenever he's found himself on the bottom. If Taira is getting to dominant positions against him, I don't think that is going to go well at all. Vergara needs to keep this standing and if he does, I think he has a solid chance, but I'm just not so sure his grappling holds up.
Bets to consider: Taira ITD +200, U2.5 rounds +176
I've seen a lot of people on Vergara at +200 and I honestly don't really have a problem with it. Like I said before, he does a lot of things that are generally well processed, especially for someone at that price. I just kind of get the feeling that Taira's grappling is just on another level. With how easily Vergara has had his guard passed in previous fights, he's going to give up dominant position and be put in a really bad spot. If he ends up getting mounted or giving his back, I ultimately think he gets submitted at some point. I'm not really looking to lay the -250 on Taira though just because he is so low volume on the feet. I would much rather be holding a +200 ticket than a -250 one, in this case. I think I'm going to split a unit on each of these just to cover the scenario where Taira gets all his takedowns stuffed and Vergara overwhelms him.
Piera Rodriguez defeats Sam Hughes Result: Rodriguez by decision (3-0)
This is kind of a weird fight. I really haven't been particularly high on either fighter in the past, so it puts me in an interesting spot as an evaluator. Hughes is someone who I think has a sufficient enough base in MMA skills, but lacks severely in athleticism and physicality. This is an archetype of fighter that I always have a hard time backing and in the few times I've done it, it hasn't served me well. Hughes is a decent enough boxer and can put out a solid number of strikes. She just doesn't have great hand speed and the power isn't there, so her upside is capped a bit. She has shown respectable ability and aggression on top, but I don't really think she's a great wrestler and her lack of strength only makes that more difficult. In terms of MMA skill, I don't think Rodriguez is significantly better, but she is going to be much faster and much more powerful. She is an ok striker and a bit lower volume. She does a much better job defensively though and Hughes is very hittable on the feet. I believe that Rodriguez is the much better wrestler as well and should be able to stuff any Hughes takedown attempts while mixing in her own. The big concern for Rodriguez is that she has looked bad on bottom whenever she's been taken down, but she held her own against Kay Hansen in her last fight, who I think is a better wrestler and grappler than Hughes, so I don't see why that would be an issue here. I like Rodriguez to win a somewhat close fight in this one.
Bets to consider: Moneylines (Rodriguez -172, Hughes +140)
This is one of those fights where I think you could justifiably bet either side. I've found myself making a case for both sides, so it's a pass for me, but I think both sides have legitimate merit. For Rodriguez, if the athleticism really is a huge gap, she should be able to win this fight almost however she wants. She'll be faster and more powerful on the feet. She's more defensively sound and could opt to get her own takedowns as well. That sort of limits Hughes to have extended success with clinch control, but I'm not really convinced she has the strength to do that. Piera has looked bad on her back, but I'm not confident that Hughes can get the fight there. There are outcomes of this fight where Piera looks like a -250 or better favorite. At the same time, she doesn't really pull away in fights. Hughes is going to be aggressive and throw strikes and attempt takedowns. I expect this fight to be reasonably close and in that case, I would much rather be holding a +140 ticket than a -172 ticket as Buffer is reading a narrow or split decision. If you have conviction on either side, I don't think either is the worst look in the world. Would probably rather have the Hughes ticket, but her skillset is just a turnoff for me in general.
Joanderson Brito defeats Lucas Alexander Result: Brito by submission (4-0)
This fight sees Lucas Alexander stepping in on short notice and I don't expect this to be a great spot for him. From what I can tell, he is a serviceable striker and he prefers to be at range. If Brito gives him that style of fight, then maybe he has a chance. However, his grappling appears to be a pretty big concern and his cardio doesn't seem very good either. Add in the fact that he's stepping in on short notice and I don't see why his cardio would even be where it normally is. If Brito decides to grapple, he should be able to get takedowns and empty Alexander's tank before too long. Brito is a pretty well rounded fighter, so I don't expect that to be an issue for him. Brito is a decent enough striker as well and he could probably have some success there if he wanted to. I see no reason that he won't just come out and take him down though. That's the easiest path to victory and I expect him to take it.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 2 -136
I don't have the craziest insight here, but these seems like as good a spot as any. As we expect with these short notice fights, the lines are all juiced in favor of the guy not on short notice. I think this fight to start round 2 at -136 is a solid enough spot. Alexander is going to try and keep range, which would limit the exchanges and keep himself safe. Brito isn't the most aggressive guy in the world and isn't really someone who I think profiles as this crazy finisher. This fight does probably end inside the distance due to Alexander's cardio issues, but I think he could survive until the second round. This is probably another pass spot though.
Nick Maximov defeats Jacob Malkoun Result: Malkoun by decision (4-1)
We have another pretty interesting fight here and I expect it to be pretty wrestling heavy. A lot of times when we get two fighters who are so grappling heavy against each other, they end up cancelling out and we see a lot of striking. I don't expect that here though as we've seen both Maximov and Malkoun both be so committed to forcing the issue with wrestling in the past. Maximov dragged Puna Soriano to the ground and just forced him against the side of the cage for that entire fight and I don't see why he wouldn't try to do the same here. Both men are very grappling heavy and don't really have much to show for in the striking. I prefer Maximov for a couple of reasons. I suspect he will be the better wrestler here and the first reason is because his success has come against much better competition. Maximov has had success wrestling Cody Brundage and Puna Soriano or at least competent wrestlers with some degree of credentials in their background. Malkoun's wrestling success against Abdual Razak Alhassan and John Dobson isn't as impressive as those are fighters who have historically struggled in that aspect. The second reason I expect Maximov to have more wrestling success is that he is going to be the much bigger and stronger fighter. On Contender Series, we saw Maximov out wrestle someone all the way up at heavyweight. Malkoun, on the other hand, is undersized for middleweight and is only 5'9, so I would expect Maximov to have a real strength advantage in clinch situations. On top of that, in the few times Maximov has been taken down or tried to be taken down, he's shown an ability and the sense of urgency to get back up. Malkoun has sometimes been willing to accept that bottom position and that is just another little thing that suggests to me that Maximov will be the side in this one.
Bets to consider: Maximov -134
For all of the reasons I just stated, I think Maximov is the way to go. The dynamic of a fight where two fighters want to do the same things and are both pretty good typically is lined about even, which is what we have here. When that is a striking fight, that makes sense as both fighters can land and trade who wins each exchange. In grappling, it doesn't really work that way as much. It is usually a pretty binary type of fight. Whoever is better will be able to get their takedowns, stop the opponent, and end up on top. Even if Maximov is just a little bit better, that typically translates to him almost always getting to the dominant position. One thing I didn't mention above is that it seems to me that Maximov is also a more advanced wrestler. Malkoun seems to rely on just a pretty standard single leg takedown, which has largely worked for him, but he hasn't shown much more than that. Maximov appears to have a much wider array of takedowns at his disposal and I think that should help him here as well. This is like the one ML that I like on this card.
Victor Henry defeats Raphael Assuncao Result: Assuncao by decision (4-2)
This is a bit of a strange fight because there are a lot of questions to be answered. Henry came in on short notice and shocked a lot of people when he upset Raoni Barcelos out of nowhere. He makes his first appearance since against aging veteran Raphael Assuncao. I have to go with Henry here despite the many questions I have about him. His volume against Barcelos was impressive and he was landing pretty cleanly at times. Barcelos is a guy who is willing to take damage, but even then, his output was at a crazy high level and his cardio was able to hold up. The main reason I have to take him here though is that I kind of think Assuncao may just be done. He hasn't looked very good recently and he hasn't really looked like himself either. He isn't a guy that historically had durability issues and now he's getting finished consistently. He's getting taken down more than he has in the past. I just don't know that we're getting anything close to the real Assuncao. Historically, he's the kind of fighter who doesn't allow his opponent to get off free volume and gets hit very little. I think he could potentially have grappling success here as well. Ultimately, I just don't trust the version of Assuncao that we've seen recently and he's only getting older. I think this is probably Henry's fight to lose at this stage of things.
Bets to consider: Assuncao ML +285
Look, I certainly wouldn't feel great about playing Assuncao at +285, but I would feel a lot worse about having a Henry -375 ticket. If Assuncao has anything left in the tank, he can probably cover his price here. He does a great job of limiting offense and if he can do that with a little bit of grappling success, then this fight is probably closer than that. The overs and goes the distance are all around -110 and that just feels like too much guess work for my taste. If Assuncao is truly cooked, he probably gets knocked out again. If not, he's been very reliable to go to decision in his career. This is another pass spot for me, but I fight that I am interested in seeing play out.
Mana Martinez defeats Brandon Davis Result: Martinez by decision (5-2)
This fight is going to be a car crash in all likelihood. This has some similarities to the scenario that I just explained above as well as a fight later. At his best, I think Brandon Davis is a pretty solid fighter. Decent striker, good volume, sufficient power, and an overall pretty aggressive, athletic guy. The problem is that Davis may also be just done. He looked the worst we'd ever seen him last time out and it was pretty ugly. I really just don't think Davis can take a shot at this point as he's getting hurt time and time again with some ugly knockouts. He's also coming off of injuries now and it just doesn't look great for him. At the same time, I don't think Mana Martinez is some unstoppable force. Martinez is pretty powerful and I expect that if he lands more than a couple of clean shots, that Davis will go down. Martinez is pretty inconsistent though because sometimes he comes out aggressive and is looking to land those big strikes and other times he is content to stand at range and not really do a whole lot. If we were getting the prime version of Davis, I would pick him here without too much of an issue. However, this version of Davis I think is probably going to be knocked out before too long.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +106
I'm not really sure why the under is at plus money here to be honest. Davis hasn't been the most durable guy in the world historically and it's really started to fade on him in recent years. On the other side, I don't think Martinez is the most durable guy in the world either. Martinez doesn't really go that deep into fights and if this fight does start to get extended, I think Davis could certainly knock him out as well. Davis still has decent enough power and I don't really trust Martinez that much. The reason I like the under instead of doesn't go the distance is because if this fight finishes, I think it would be reasonably earlier. This isn't really the kind of scenario where you see a late finish based on an accumulation of damage. This type of finish is more so because of power and durability concerns on both sides than someone getting overwhelmed late. I think Davis probably gets knocked out early or Davis can find the knockout somewhere in round 2.
Alonzo Menifield defeats Misha Cirkunov Result: Menifield by KO (6-2)
I hate to be so chalky with these picks, but I'm just not really feeling any of these underdogs that much. This fight has the potential to be pretty bad, so I don't want to spend too much time on it. Cirkunov is a guy that just needs to get the fight to the ground and be on top. That is where he is best and really the only spot you can trust him. If he were able to get the fight there, I suspect that we would see him have quite a bit of success even though we have limited evidence of what Menifield is like on the bottom. However, I find that unlikely because we've seen Menifield stuff takedowns consistently against much better wrestlers. Additionally, Menifield is much more athletic and stronger, so he would have the advantage in any clinch situation as well. At range, Cirkunov really doesn't offer a whole lot and has some durability concerns on top of it. Because of that, I think the most likely outcome of this fight is that Menifield finds the knockout at some point. He's a pretty powerful guy and I can't really imagine Cirkunov taking more than a few clean shots before going down. The problem on the Menifield side is that he's such an inconsistent striker. Sometimes he'll be really aggressive and come out looking to kill somebody. Other times he seems disinterested and won't really throw strikes at all. I think Menifield probably wins, but I can't say I feel good about it.
Betting thoughts:
You guys know that I like to try and list something for every fight, but this one I really don't know what the option is. Menifield is way too inconsistent and not the caliber of fighter that I'm looking to lay -200 or more on basically ever. He's just not reliable enough to actually engage for me to have any degree of confidence in him right now. On the other side, Cirkunov is +172 and I don't have interest in him either. His durability is a huge concern against someone like Menifield and if he can't get takedowns, he probably can't win. Menifield has been stopping takedowns pretty consistently in the UFC, so I can't really project Cirkunov to get it down and if he doesn't, I don't like his chances. Fight doesn't go the distance and under 2.5 are completely juiced and present no value in my opinion. My book doesn't offer an under 1.5, but I've heard some people saying that they have it available to them at around -130 or so and I don't really like that either. A fight where Menifield doesn't throw strikes or Cirkunov controls the clinch is certainly possible and reasonable enough to extend this beyond 7.5 minutes. I really have no interest in playing this fight in any way.
Dusko Todorovic defeats Jordan Wright Result: Todorovic by KO (7-2)
We have another car crash here and another fight between two guys who I'm not particularly high on. With that said, I just don't think I could pick Jordan Wright to reasonably win a fight right now. He has some nice qualities, but it just doesn't translate to wins. He's a decent enough athlete and a competent striker with good power, but he just doesn't use it well. His entire strategy is just to be hyper aggressive and see what happens. The issue he's had is that he doesn't have the best chin and has fought a lot of guys who are better strikers with more power. He just charges into the pocket and gets knocked out pretty regularly. He's tried to add some wrestling and clinch work into his game, but that saw him get submitted by known kick boxer Marc-Andre Barriault, so that isn't going well either. On the other side, we have Dusko who I'm not overly impressed with either. He's also a striker with poor defense that has a durability problem. Dusko at least tries to defend strikes, he just doesn't do it well. I do think Dusko is probably just a slightly better striker and manages range a bit better. He isn't the kind of guy that really wants to plant his feet and trade in the pocket and I think that is probably enough. He doesn't have huge power, but he does have enough that if he can connect, he can put Wright out. He's also tried to wrestle and clinch more recently as he's been knocked out a few times. I don't think either guy has much of an advantage in that realm, so I do think it probably plays out mostly on the feet and I have to favor Dusko there right now.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds +190
Got pretty desperate looking for something to list here, but hear me out. All of the knockout props and unders are juiced to the max. The under 1.5 is -260. I think that is just way too far. I know everything I just said, but over 7.5 minutes at +190 is at least enough to make me pause. With how much these guys have been looking to clinch, I don't think it is the most ridiculous thing in the world. If I had to go with a money line side, I guess it's Wright? I don't know how you could read what I said in the breakdown above and come to the conclusion that one guy should be -200, so I guess give me Wright at +164 or whatever it is. Violence and unders are normally the way to go, but the prices are just so out of hand. This is another pass spot, but a dart throw at the over could be a fun one to try and sweat out if you're looking for something weird to throw on this fight.
Cub Swanson defeats Jonathan Martinez Result: Martinez by KO (7-3)
I'm going out on a limb here, but I like the shot. Cub is randomly deciding to drop down to bantamweight in his late 30s, which is probably not a good sign and I wouldn't say this was the best he's ever looked during fight week either. Having his teammate answer for him at the press conference was a bit concerning, but here we are. If the cut doesn't have him completely drained and compromised, which it certainly could, I think Cub wins this pretty easy. Jonathan Martinez is a guy who likes to strike at range and likes to keep fights about technique. Cub isn't the kind of guy who lets that type of fight happens and is going to get in someone's face and force them into a fight. Martinez relies a lot on kicks and if Cub closes that distance, that will limit those kicks. Martinez does have at least decent power, but Cub is normally durable. We've seen Martinez get hurt badly multiple times in the past, so if Cub closes the distance and puts out his normal amount of volume, I think he is plenty live to knock Martinez out here. I just think that Cub is the better striker here and if the weight wasn't a question, most people would be picking Cub to win. Maybe the weight just drains him and he can't take a shot because he's so depleted, but if not, I think he wins pretty cleanly.
Bets to consider: Swanson ML +172, U2.5 +126
Obviously, I like Cub here, so playing him at this size of an underdog would make sense if you share that opinion. I just don't really know how someone could trust Martinez at over -200 here. I know Cub has had trouble with kicks at times, but I think Martinez just relies on them way too heavily. If Cub closes the distance and forces Martinez into a close quarters boxing match, Cub will thrive there. Martinez wants to stay on the outside, but Cub gets on the inside against everyone and forces them into a chaotic type of fight. I think Cub's volume and power plays well in that spot. I don't really trust Martinez's durability in that type of fight either. I'm going to pair that with the under at plus money. I just explained why I think Cub could finish Martinez, so I won't rehash that. On the other side, if Cub is horribly drained from the extra weight cut, then Martinez should be able to finish him. If that does happen, I'll be covered by the under at an interesting plus money price.
Alexa Grasso defeats Viviane Araujo Result: Grasso by decision (8-3)
I did the full breakdown on this one yesterday, so if you want full details, check that out. I'll keep it short here though. Ultimately, I think Grasso has the better of the stylistics here. This is a tale of two fights. When Vivi is fresh, this fight should be moderately competitive. She's the stronger fighter and more powerful fighter. She has power in her hands and is a solid enough grappler that when paired with her strength, allows her to get takedowns somewhat consistently. The problem with Vivi's game is that her cardio fades around the midpoint of the second round and she becomes a different fighter. She becomes a lot more stationary and begins taking a lot more damage. Her output falls off and she loses some of the pop on her punches as well. Grasso on the other hand is a lot more reliable. She's a pretty good boxer and she has crisp counter striking as well. I think Grasso can really punish Vivi on the counters and will be what gives her a chance to win the early portion of the fight. Grasso has the more proven cardio as well and I expect that she will be able to win the late rounds most of the time. The key to Grasso's growth has been her improvement as a grappler. She's stopping takedowns more consistently, has been able to work her way up, and has even added some ability to land her own takedowns. I think this fight is competitive early, but then we see Grasso really pull away late and maybe even find the late finish.
Bets to consider: Grasso 4, 5, or dec -115
With Vivi approaching +200, I don't really blame anyone taking the shot, but the cardio dynamic really has me not looking to make that play here. I think this line is more or less correct, but I'm not going to laugh at anyone who takes that opportunity. My play will be Grasso 4, 5, or decision because I think there is a very real chance that she finishes this fight late. Grasso by decision is also only +125, so to get those full two rounds for not that much different in price seems well worth it to me. I think there is a chance that Araujo completely death gasses at some point in rounds 4 and 5 and basically is unable to continue. She was in a really bad spot against Chookagian and if that happens here with 2 additional rounds, I don't see how she makes it to decision. It just makes too much sense to me.
That's it from me on this card. Leave all of your picks, bets, and predictions below. All of my bets will be below. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card.
Official Bets
Tatsuro Taira ITD .5 units at +200 to win 1 unit + 1 unit
Taira/Vergara U2.5 rounds .5 units at +176 to win .88 units + .88 units
Nick Maximov ML 1.5 units at -134 to win 1.12 units - 1.5 units
Martinez/Davis U2.5 rounds 1 unit at +106 to win 1.06 units - 1 unit
Cub Swanson ML .5 units at +172 to win .86 units - .5 units
Swanson/Martinez U2.5 rounds .5 units at +126 to win .63 units + .63 units
Grasso 4, 5, or dec 1.5 units at -115 to win 1.30 units + 1.30 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + .81 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 9.60 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 10.41 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 3
Previous Year to Date Record: 247 - 152
Updated Year to Date Record: 255 - 155
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