It's felt like a really long week since UFC 281, but we're back and the UFC is back in action, with Bellator currently going as I'm writing this. I have extend my condolences to the family and friends of Anthony Johnson. What a horrible and sad situation. Rumble was a guy who started to gain traction around the same time that I was becoming a more committed hardcore fan of MMA, so to see that he passed away was a shock. Hopefully everyone who knew him is doing well and may we always remember his contributions to the sport and to the world at large. MMA doesn't sleep though, so we're back with another week of picks and bets. It isn't the best card in the world, but there are some interesting fights and spots. Coming off of last week, everything was going to look bad, but, all things considered, it could've been a lot worse. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Natalia Silva defeats Tereza Bleda Result: Silva by KO (1-0)
This is a very strange one to start the night as we have Natalia Silva in her second UFC fight against Tereza Bleda who is making her debut after fighting on the Contender's Series. In general, I think Silva is the better, more talented fighter with the higher upside in the long run. However, the style dynamics make this one at least a bit interesting. Silva is the striking side of the matchup and if she can keep it there, I can't imagine that she'll have a ton of issues. She puts out good volume and we saw her defend strikes pretty well in her debut, despite Jasudavicius not being the best striker in the world. She got some takedowns in that fight as well, but I wouldn't expect to see that here. Her goal will be to keep the fight standing where she should have the technical advantage and the speed advantage as well. With Silva, the question will be how she looks if she gets taken down. In some of her pre UFC fights, she was the kind of fighter who would fight off of her back. If that is still the case, she could be in trouble here. If her get up game as progressed and she can work back up, then she's probably fine. Bleda is primarily and wrestler and she has a decent top game. That would play right into a potential hole in Silva's game if she is still someone who is content to play the BJJ game from her back. Bleda is also very big for the weight class and she may be able to just out muscle Silva here. While Silva has shown some submission game, I think Bleda is good enough from top to probably stay safe. However, if she can't get takedowns, she should be behind on the feet and would likely lose a decision pretty cleanly without a takedown.
Bets to consider: Bleda ML +136
This is a tough fight to bet as it's just not really something I would look to potentially lose money on. If I had to be on a side, I suppose it would be the Bleda side? If Bleda can get takedowns, I think she would probably win without too much of an issue. She's very big and strong, so she could just be too physical and force the takedowns. That certainly wouldn't surprise me and if she got on top, I think she would be just fine there. It's really just a matter of if she can or not. While I'm higher on Silva for the totality of her career, I don't think lining her at -170 at this stage of her career makes a ton of sense. At the end of the day, I think this fight is better served to just be a data point than a spot on the card to look to attack. We just have so little high level information on both of these fighters who are so young in their development that I'll just be watching to see what there is to see for next time. Take the shot on Bleda if you want, but this feels like a pretty safe pass spot.
Brady Hiestand defeats Fernie Garcia Result: Hiestand by decision (2-0)
This is an interesting fight we have here and another one that I think will be an important data point in the careers of both fighters. This fight feels like it could be a bit all over the place, so I'm struggling to even figure out how to approach writing this. I guess I'll break it down from a striking and grappling instead of fighter by fighter. If this fight stays standing, I think I may prefer Garcia slightly. I think he's a bit more buttoned up and technical. I also think he may have a bit more pop. Hiestand is aggressive though and he's going to get after it. Garcia isn't the highest output guy in the world, so he could fall behind on numbers. The concern would be that Hiestand's striking defense really isn't that great. He gets over aggressive at times and he can take a ton of damage. He's going to get knocked out at some point and while Garcia could certainly do it, I'm not so sure he's the guy. The grappling here, to me, is probably going to be the difference. Hiestand is a relentless grappler who is going to shoot as many takedowns as he needs to. Garcia isn't the best defensive wrestler in the world and I suspect that Hiestand will be able to get the takedowns here. The interesting part will be what happens when it hits the ground. Fernie has shown a decent get up game at times, but it isn't clear to me if Hiestand is just on a different level than him. If Garcia can get up, this is going to be a pretty competitive fight. If he can't, Hiestand may blanket him. The last thing is the cardio and I'm not sure either guy really has an advantage there. I don't think Garcia has the best cardio in the world and if Hiestand is going to put that pace on him, I could see a situation where Hiestand breaks him late. At the same time, Hiestand gets tired as well. The problem with Hiestand isn't necessarily his cardio in my opinion, but his pace. He really doesn't pace himself at all. He just goes with 100% of what he has left in the tank, which causes him to slow down. Because of that, he fights through that fatigue pretty well, but it is something to monitor. Ultimately, I do prefer the grappling and pace of Hiestand, but his tendency to throw caution to the wind in the striking makes Garcia very live, in my opinion.
Bets to consider: FDNGTD +154, Garcia ML +142
If I was on the money line here, I think I would prefer to be on Garcia here. Hiestand is reckless on the feet and he's going to get himself knocked out at some point. If Garcia is able to work his way up from takedowns, then I think the knockout is very in play. Garcia has a little bit of pop and he's going to be able to land if this fight takes place on the feet. I think the fight to not go the distance is an interesting spot at plus money. I just talked about how I think Garcia's best path to victory is via knockout. If Hiestand is able to get takedowns, there's the possibility that he could just wipe Garcia out on the ground. I'm not convinced that Hiestand's ground game isn't significantly better and if that is true, he could submit him, maybe even quickly. There is also the chance that the wrestling pace from Hiestand just gasses Garcia out late and he can get an exhaustion based TKO late. I'm not sure if I'll actually pull the trigger or not, but it is at least interesting.
Vanessa Demopoulos defeats Maria Oliveira Result: Demopoulos by decision (3-0)
This fight is an interesting one. On the feet, this fight should be pretty competitive. I think I may prefer Oliveira slightly there, but it's pretty close. Oliveira throws a lot of volume, but it doesn't always feel that way because her power just really isn't there. Her striking defense also isn't all that great as she absorbs a ton of damage. Her big advantage here is that she'll have a huge size and reach advantage. If she can keep Demopoulos on the outside, that would be huge. I don't know that she's really that kind of striker though, but the size may be so significant that it can't be overcome regardless. Demopoulos isn't the best striker in the world, but she is aggressive. Her volume is just kind of ok, but she is willing to engage. There have been times when she's willing to stand and trade in the pocket and she's going to need to do that in order to get past the reach. I think she may have a slight power advantage as well. Her defense isn't great either, but with the limited power coming back, I don't think that will be too much of an issue. The real upside here is with the grappling for Demopoulos. She has kind of cultivated a reputation as a submission artist and it's kind of weird. The issue is that she just isn't much of a wrestler. She almost never ends up on top and thus so many of her submission come from the guard. Oliveira isn't going shoot takedowns, so for the fight to be ground, we'll see Vanessa's top game and how dangerous she could be from there. Oliveira has never really shown to be much of a defensive grappler, so if Demopoulos can get the fight down, I have to assume she would have a lot of success there. At the end of the day, I think the striking is competitive and Demopoulos has all of the upside in the grappling, so I have to pick her here, but it's a tough one.
Bets to consider: Demopoulos ML -105
Another tough fight to bet, but I don't really think Demopoulos being a slight underdog here makes a ton of sense. Even for someone who thinks Oliveira's striking is definitively better, I don't think it's by a wide margin. The grappling very clearly favors one side, which coincides with that same fighter have a vast majority of the finishing upside. I just don't see how the pure volume striking of Oliveira translates to her as a slight favorite. I get that the reach and size is significant, but this fight isn't really at a high enough level where I think Oliveira can truly take advantage of it the way she would probably need to. I think Demopoulos can push a pace and if she shoots enough takedowns, she's going to get one eventually. If she gets one or two, that may be enough for her to find a submission. It's not a take that I'm really planting my flag on, but I do think Demopoulos should probably be favored, slightly.
Ricky Turcios defeats Kevin Natividad Result: Turcios by decision (4-0)
This is a messy one. Ricky Turcios is coming off of a bizarre performance that was very...just odd. Turcios is a guy who is historically a volume and pace heavy fighter, but last fight he just wasn't landing anything. He absorbs a bit more damage than you would like, but I think that has more to do with his willingness to engage than Turcios having poor defense. He's not much of an offensive wrestler, but he does have a competent ground game and he scrambles pretty well. Despite how weird Turcios looked last time, I think he bounces back here. Natividad just doesn't seem like the guy who can put him in those same positions he found himself in last time out. Natividad isn't the worst striker ever, but he's so low volume that it kind of limits him a bit. He has decent power, but he just doesn't push much of a pace. His defense hasn't been all that great either as he averages more strikes absorbed than landed. I think Natividad is probably a better wrestler, but he really doesn't shoot takedowns reliably and I think Turcios would probably be able to work up or out scramble him anyways. As long as Turcios fights the way he normally does, I think he can out volume him. Natividad also isn't known for having the best cardio ever, so that won't help him here either.
Bets to consider: Turcios ML -162
After his last fight, I'm not necessarily running to the window to lay chalk on Turcios, but he really should be the side here. He should limit the offensive grappling for Natividad and then just outland him on the feet. It's really just the visual of him landing like 10% of his strikes against Zahabi that is hard to unsee. That doesn't look like any of his previous fights though, so I am leaning towards assuming that is just an outlier against a much more technical fighter. Natividad isn't the same type of guy as Zahabi, so I think the most likely outcome here is that Turcios outperforms his price tag and looks closer to -200 or better. I don't blame you if you pass though. Quickly, as for Natividad, I don't really see a great path. He could knock Turcious out I guess, but I don't think the odds of that are particularly high. I think Turcios is the side and I may end up making the play.
Vince Morales defeats Miles Johns Result: Johns by decision (4-1)
This is a damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of fight. Trying to predict Vince Morales fights may just be a waste of time, but here we are. The problem with Morales is that he is seemingly a different fighter every time we see him. Sometimes he's aggressive, sometimes he isn't. If he comes out and is ready to fight, then I think he should be in a decent spot here. If he comes out as the passive version of himself, then he may find himself in a less than desirable spot. I think Morales is a decent enough striker here and the aggressive version will put out more volume than Johns. I also think he is the more durable fighter with the better cardio. There are two main issues with Morales, outside of his inconsistency. Well, I guess three. His striking defense isn't all that great, but it isn't awful either. The next one is his grappling defense. He doesn't really stop takedowns that well and Johns can certainly wrestle. The weird one is Morales has a big problem with low kicks and I expect we see Johns try to attack that issue. Johns is a guy who does have decent power, but his lowish volume counteracts that a bit. Johns is also a pretty good wrestler and I imagine he would be able to get takedowns in this fight somewhat consistently. The huge issue with all of this is that Johns is very consistent to slow down and then gas out. While I believe he has the wrestling ability to win this fight, I don't think he can do it for a full 15 minutes. He has the power to do some damage, but if Morales comes out aggressive, Johns probably gasses out. Add on top of this that Johns is taking this fight on shortish notice and I can't expect his cardio to even be as good as it normally is. We're really left to decide if we take the chance that we get aggressive Morales or not. If we do, he probably pushes a pace that Johns can't match, if he doesn't, then he may get out grappled. I guess I'll lean Morales in this one, but it's hard to really feel great about it.
Bets to consider: Morales ML +138
I'm not sure why, but this fight and the previous one don't have any props available, but here we are. In my opinion, Morales really is the only side here. Regardless of what you think of Morales, I just don't know how you could lay -170 on a short notice Miles Johns. That just sounds like a recipe for disaster. Betting someone with a cardio problem, on short notice, at a heavy chalk number is a complete non starter for me. With that said, I'm not super high on the idea of betting Morales either. Is +140 really enough to take the shot that you get the version of Morales that you want? Maybe not. He's really the only side here though in my opinion. This is probably another pass and is really where I realized this is not a good card for betting at all.
Maryna Moroz defeats Jennifer Maia Result: Maia by decision (4-2)
This is another fight where I just really don't know what to say. This fight should be pretty competitive and mostly be a striking battle and I just slightly prefer Moroz. I think Moroz may actually be a slightly better boxer. She's the bigger woman in this one as well and should have an athletic advantage as well. She has a volume edge and she might even have a grappling advantage. Maia is a good boxer, but she's just so low volume that I'm not sure it holds up even if she is at a slight technical advantage. She is a decent enough grappler, but she just never shoots for takedowns. The one thing that has me thinking Maia has a chance here is that her level of competition is just significantly higher. This one is short, but I'm not really sure there's much more to say. I just think Moroz is very slightly better maybe everywhere. It's just the jump in competition that is giving me pause. I think if Maia had some higher output or was more reliable to wrestle, then she would have a better chance, but she just doesn't do those things, so I like Moroz just slightly here.
Bets to consider: Maia ML +154
I know given what I just said this may seem odd, but I just think this line is messed up. While I do prefer Moroz, -192 just isn't right. This fight seems like one that should be moderately competitive, so I'm not sure how this line gets to Moroz being almost 2 to 1. This feels like a fight that is 1-1 going into the third round and we get a very close split decision. I think playing Maia is just a strict play of the numbers more than any supreme degree of confidence in her to really pull it off.
Charles Johnson defeats Zhalgas Zhumagulov Result: Johnson by decision (5-2)
This is an odd fight. Johnson is a guy who probably should have been in the UFC a little bit ago. He's a very solid volume based striker. I think he's a decent boxer with good output. The problem there is that everything else is a bit limited. He's not an offensive wrestler and he doesn't have a ton of power. He is a pretty decent defensive grappler though and I think that will help him here. His striking defense is kind of hit and miss as well. I do prefer his volume striking here though as it's probably the best individual attribute either fighter has in this one. I've never been all that high on Zhumagulov and he's just a hard guy to pick. He's not inherently a bad fighter, but he just doesn't really have the high end skills required to win consistently at the UFC level in my opinion. He's not a bad striker, but he's just so low volume that it's hard to imagine him winning rounds on the feet. He doesn't really have the power to find knockouts on the feet. He's an ok wrestler, but he's not particularly efficient. Johnson was able to defend takedowns against Mokaev fairly well, so I can't imagine Zhalgas gives him major problems there. He doesn't have great striking defense either. He's very well rounded, but he's well rounded at a lower level. I would say he's like below average at everything. I like Johnson and his volume in this one.
Bets to consider: FGTD -260
I've seen some people a bit more passionate on the Zhalgas side here, but I'm really just not into the idea. He's sitting around +140 right now, but, to me, his upside is so limited that my interest just isn't there. I feel like his upside is that of a close split decision. I'm just not really that interested in betting him in this spot or any spot right now. I'm not looking to run out and bet Johnson at -170 either, but I just feel no need to consider Zhalgas. The fight goes the distance number is pretty big, but I don't think either guy has much of a path towards a finish, so it is an interesting enough spot. At this point, I'm considering just not betting anything at all as I just feel no passion for anything to this point.
Jack Della Maddalena defeats Danny Roberts Result: Della Maddalena by KO (6-2)
This is a fight that people are talking about as one way traffic and while it could look like that, I think it's being a bit overstated. Maddalena is the better boxer here and I think it's by a very legitimate margin. He has good power and he has fantastic volume. Beyond that, I have some questions about him though. I don't think his defensive grappling is all that great and his offensive wrestling doesn't really exist. His striking defense is also not particularly great and he takes a ton of damage. I made a comment last week about someone, I think Ryan Spann, that they have a lot of good tools, but lack the things that link those tools together in a way to produce consistent wins. Danny Roberts fits that pretty well. I think Roberts is a solid striker, but he sort of has this thing about him where he decides he's either going to be technical or he's going to throw volume, but it has to be one or the other. If he's technical, which he can do well, he has no output. When he decides to throw volume, he just goes crazy and is completely reckless. He has pretty good power, so he can find knockouts that way, but he exposes himself and has been chinned badly in the past. I'm not completely sure that he has a bad chin, but when he's open to being hit, he can be hit cleanly and hasn't always responded well. He isn't much of a wrestler, but I think he probably has the advantage there in this fight. I ultimately think Jack's volume is going to be the distance here and if Roberts opens the fight up, he's very live to get knocked out. He is very live to find the knockout himself though.
Betting thoughts:
I'm really leaning towards not betting this card at all at this point. You obviously can't bet Jack at -600 and all of his props and the violence props are juiced. I think Roberts has a better chance than a lot of people are giving him credit for, but I still don't think they're phenomenal chances. If Roberts fought the perfect fight, he would be able to win. Besides that, I think he is limited to just a crazy knockout where he throws caution to the wind and lands the power shot first. While that's certainly possible, Jack is the much slicker striker and he should be able to land the cleaner shots with greater frequency. This is one of those fights where everything is just so juiced that it's hard to play. Taking the dart throw on Roberts is fine, but that's really all it is.
Muslim Salikhov defeats Andre Fialho Result: Salikhov by KO (7-2)
This is a fight that I'm actually interested to see play out. In his prime, Salikhov would win this fight without issue. He would be the better fighter in all facets. He's been the more technical fighter, much better defensively, and simply more skilled. His offensive and defensive striking were just on a different level. He would also hold all of the grappling upside. The problem is that he's getting old now and a lot of those skills are starting to fade. His speed is starting to fade on him and that leads to him being hit more than he ever has. His durability seems to be deteriorating as well. He still has the power and the wrestling, but without the speed on his strikes and takedowns, he's not as effective as he used to be. He's always been low volume, so it's just a weird spot for him. With that said, I still can't go away from him here. He still is going to be the more skilled fighter. Fialho's best attributes are his physical ones. He's a pretty powerful guy who throws hard, fast strikes. I think his MMA skills are well behind his athletic traits right now. He won't have a technical advantage anywhere in this fight. It's really just a matter of if he can land the big shot or not. If he does, he probably knocks Salikhov out. If he doesn't, I don't think he can win this fight. I have to ride with Salikhov here, but it will be interesting to watch.
Bets to consider: Salikhov ML -114
I think this fight is a scary one to bet, but it could end up paying out pretty well. To get the better fighter at -114 seems like a steal. It's just a matter of how depleted Salikhov really is at this point. If he has anything left in the tank, he should be just fine. If he really is cooked, the Fialho probably knocks him out without too much of an issue. The under 2.5 at -135 is tempting, but both guys are so low output that this one could end up being a staring contest. We could also get a Salikhov lay and pray win, so I think I'll be staying off of it and likely this card as a whole.
Chase Sherman defeats Waldo Cortes-Acosta Result: Cortes-Acosta by decision (7-3)
Well, I wasn't a huge fan of Acosta a few weeks ago and he's already back, so he should be largely the same fighter. At the end of the day, Acosta just isn't a very refined fighter. He's big and powerful, but that's really about it. He doesn't wrestle, he's not a technical striker, and he doesn't really defend strikes well. He's just kind of a big guy who throws huge power shots and can knock people out. Now, I'm not here to tell you Sherman is the future of the heavyweight division, but I think he just has more tools. He's a solid offensive fighter overall. He's a decent enough boxer for low level heavyweight MMA and he strikes with a decent volume until he runs out of gas. He's a pretty powerful guy and he throws heavy low kicks. We just saw Acosta damaged badly by low kicks less than a month ago by someone who doesn't throw low kicks that much. Sherman is a pretty durable guy for the most part, especially considering his striking defense isn't very good, so he has that going for him as well. If Acosta doesn't knock Sherman out early, I kind of think this is a decent spot for Chase. Now, Acosta certainly could knock him out early, but I kind of don't think that's going to happen. I think Sherman and his calf kicks get it done.
Bets to consider: Sherman ML +205
If I wasn't already committed to not betting this card, this is a spot that I would actually feel comfortable playing. I just don't really know how any of the dynamics I just described aligns to Sherman +200. I know that guy isn't great or anything, but what did Acosta do in his last fight that is making people look at him as a heavy favorite here? Sherman's biggest struggles have come against grapplers and Acosta doesn't grapple. In a heavyweight MMA fight, especially a low level one, if the styles align such that two guys are going to be standing and trading strikes, I would feel much more comfortable with the +200 ticket than the -260 one, just out of principle. Add in the fact that the +200 side is much more experienced and is very good a a particular technique that the other struggles with, in this case calf kicks, then I think that is a recipe for taking the shot on the plus money side. I'm not some Chase Sherman believer or anything of the sort, but this line just isn't really adding up to me.
Kennedy Nzechukwu defeats Ion Cutelaba Result: Nzecihukwu by KO (8-3)
I don't know man, this fight is a mess too. Kennedy may very well be one of the most unpredictable fighters on he entire roster. He almost seems like a different guy every time we see him. The only skills that reliably translate from one fight to the next are that he's gigantic and he has pretty good cardio. Besides those two, he can change drastically between appearances. At his best, he's a guy who could cause serious issues for a lot of guys in this division. At his worst, he could lose to almost anybody. Sometimes he comes out as a fairly buttoned up striker and fights very technically, other times he doesn't and he'll take a lot of damage. Other times he'll come out aggressive and others he'll get immediately backed up to the cage. He randomly decided that he was going to get a bunch of takedowns in his last fight when he's never done that before in his career. Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to what we'll see from him. Cutelaba is much more consistent, but it's not always good things. Cutelaba is a solid enough fighter, but only for the first round. He's a pretty good wrestler even though his overall grappling skill set seems a bit limited. He's an aggressive striker and has some pop despite the fact that I don't think he's overly technical. He just can't maintain any of that beyond 5 minutes. I imagine that he takes Kennedy down early without too much issue, but I think he probably ends up getting beaten over the final 10 minutes of the fight pretty consistently. Kennedy is bigger, stronger, and will have the chance to knock him out as long as he survives the early going, which I think he does more often than not. Give me Kennedy, but it's hard to commit to it heavily.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -122
Kennedy being -188 is just a nonstarter for me. I just don't know how someone could realistically think that's a great idea, but there are scenarios where he looks -200 or even better. There are also scenarios where Cutelaba probably looks -200. I think the over is a decent enough look in this fight. Kennedy is probably going to get taken down early and spend much of the first round on his back. I think he can stay safe there and he does a decent job of working up, so this fight should get out of the first round a vast majority of the time. Cutelaba may have the gas to shoot takedowns early in the second, but even if he doesn't, Kennedy isn't the guy to come out and just go crazy with volume. If the finish comes in the second round, I think it would be later after Kennedy feels more comfortable letting his hands go and starts connecting with combinations more consistently. I guess Cutelaba is a candidate to just go out, but I think the over here cashes a fairly solid percentage of the time.
Derrick Lewis defeats Serghei Spivac Result: Fight cancelled
May as well end it with a messy fight, I suppose. What am I to really say here, it's Derrick Lewis. As with almost every single one of his fights, he's going to be losing up until the moment that he lands a right hand and launches Spivac out of the cage. Skill for skill, Spivac is the better fight, that's really no secret. He's the better wrestler and it's by a lot. He should just take Lewis down and beat him up until Lewis just folds. At least early on, Lewis may be able to fend off a takedown or two, but if this fight starts to extend, Spivac should be fine. Spivac is pretty good on top and he should be able to finish Lewis there. It's just a matter of him staying safe to get to that point. It's no secret that Lewis is beatable at this point, but his power is very real. He only needs one punch and he's found it at a pretty high rate. I am starting to wonder if Lewis is just starting to fade with age, but the power should still be there. As long as this fight is standing, he's got a very real chance. Spivac doesn't have great defense, so the path for the Lewis knockout is there. This should be Spivac's fight, but this is also the kind of fight that Lewis has won when he shouldn't have. I don't know, I'll take Lewis just because.
Bets to consider: Lewis ML +168, O1.5 rounds -116
I just laid out the path for Lewis to pull the upset, but you already knew the path. I just think -210 on Spivac is too far. The style plays into his favor, but the danger factor is way too real to play a number that big in my opinion. The over is interesting though as if this is Spivac's fight, it probably should extend a bit. Spivac is a guy who likes to take his time and methodically work on top, so even though he should finish Lewis if he's getting takedowns, I don't think it will come early. Lewis doesn't throw a ton of strikes, so I wouldn't be shocked to see this fight get into the third round potentially, especially if Spivac is the one having a majority of the success.
Well, that's it from me. I decided I'm not betting on this card just because I wasn't feeling it and got to some of this way too late, but it should be a fun one nonetheless. Leave all of your thoughts, picks, and bets below. Have a good one and enjoy the card. No official bets this week.
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: 0 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 10.53 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 10.53 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 3
Previous Year to Date Record: 287 - 171
Updated Year to Date Record: 295 - 174
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