After a week off from the UFC, it feels good to be back making picks and lining up some bets. I'm also adjusting to the new schedule a bit and I'm not nearly as tired as I was during the first week, so this should be better than my last picks and bets where everything was a bit short. This is also a much better card and it's needed. The UFC can't just rely on PPVs to carry their viewership as it's going to eventually fall off if they keep running out these really thin Fight Nights. We don't have that this week and it should honestly be a great night of action. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Yazmin Jauregui defeats Estela Nunes Result: Jauregi by KO (1-0)
We have an interesting matchup to start off the night and it should be a good one. It should also play out on the feet, so maybe we can get the crowd into this one early. It's also a fight of prospects that are sort of trending the opposite direction of where I originally had them. Jauregui is striker who I was a bit unsure of to a degree and she came out in her debut fight and looked pretty good. She threw a ton of volume with good power and showed pretty solid cardio with it. The one concern on her end is that she took quite a bit of damage and it was against someone who was more of a grappler than a striker. Against someone who can strike and is probably the best pure technical striker she's ever faced, there is some concern that she just gets hit too cleanly. Nunes is a fighter that I actually thought may have a solid future in the UFC, but she really hasn't found her footing in the UFC quite yet. I still do think she is a talented striker and I would go as far as to say she may have a slight technical advantage here. Her output is solid, but inconsistent and her power is good for the division as well. Her defense should be better in this one too. The big issue is her cardio and grappling. Most of the fights she's been in that have gotten extended, she's slowed down considerably and I don't doubt that she could be finished late in this one. Nunes grappling is a definite weakness and being out grappled is what has largely caused her to gas out in the past, but I really don't think it's just that. Nunes has gassed out in striking heavy fights as well, especially against fighters who are going to bring heavy pressure. I don't necessarily think that Nunes secretly has great cardio because obviously she doesn't, but her pacing is just as much of an issue. She just sort of puts everything she has into her strikes until she is forced to slow down. If there is any grappling here, I have to give that edge to Jauregi as Nunes really hasn't shown anything there at all. This fight may be competitive early, but as it progresses, it will continue to be more and more in Jauregui's favor. I have to side with her here.
Bets to consider: Nunes ML +250, FDNGTD +138
With all of that said, I really don't see how Jauregui has gotten all the way out to -340. This is her toughest opponent yet, at least in terms of striking and someone who may be her equal or a bit better. It isn't an obvious play and I'm not really sure if I'll actually play it, but I have no real interest in betting Jauregui either. It's really the cardio dynamic that keeps me off of it, but in terms of just striking skill, I think the fight should actually be pretty competitive for as long as Nunes has the energy. The fight doesn't go the distance is moderately interesting as well. The cardio for Nunes makes her a candidate to be finished late when she's just hanging on. Both women have the power to get a knockout early and if it terms out that Nunes is just a slightly better striker, she could get a knockout if Jauregui's defense hasn't improved any. I don't think I'll pull the trigger, but it was a number that at least made me think twice.
Marcelo Rojo defeats Francis Marshall Result: Marshall by KO (1-1)
We have another good fight here and another interesting one. Marshall is making his debut after a fairly impressive win on Contender Series and I am intrigued by him as a prospect. He showed a lot of good things in that fight and what we can see from him in his handful of regional fights. He's a solid striker and throws a ton of volume. He's shown great cardio and very good durability as well. He's also displayed an ability to grapple and I think that will probably be a huge key for him in this one. I like what Marshall does, but I just have a hard time pinning him down because his level of competition is so low. He really hasn't fought anyone all that great and Rojo is a legitimate UFC caliber fighter. This is by far the biggest step up (several steps up) and I wonder if it will just be too much too soon. Rojo is a guy who I think is a bit underrated in general. I tend to believe he's a pretty good striker. He's fairly technical and throws with good volume. Marshall didn't have the best defense in that Contender's Series fight and Rojo is a significantly better striker than his opponent there. The concern is with Rojo's defensive grappling and I think his struggles there are being a bit overstated. He's not the best defensive grappler in the world, but I do think his takedown defense is actually pretty good. I'm not convinced that Marshall's wrestling is all that special and if the fight is at space, I think Rojo is just the superior striker, despite the volume from the Marshall side. Marshall's defense really is a huge concern for me and I'll go with the veteran Rojo here. Rojo's cardio is a concern, but I just think the skill gap is pretty clearly in his favor.
Bets to consider: Rojo ML +126
I just don't really think Rojo should be the underdog here to be honest. I don't know how many times we have to see someone come off of Contender's Series and get overvalued against an established veteran only to realize that there is a significant difference in the levels in this game. I have a feeling we'll be seeing that again here. Unless Marshall is just a significantly better wrestler than I am giving him credit for, I don't really see what makes him a favorite. While I suppose he could win this fight based on pure volume, cardio, and durability, I don't think his chances there are great and certainly not enough to favor him. I generally think Rojo can stuff the takedown attempts and then at space, he's just a more technical striker with a wider array of weapons and strikes to use. I don't think he'll have any problem landing and I will be playing him here.
Natan Levy defeats Genaro Valdez Result: Levy by decision (2-1)
This may be the fight on the card that I have the least passionate opinion on. I think, in theory, this should be a decent enough spot for Levy, but he's just not really a guy that I trust all that much. Levy is actually a pretty decent all around grappler. He hits takedowns at a decent rate and he gets them frequently as well. He's not an awful striker either, but he definitely isn't as clean there. He's lowish volume, but he has solid enough power and he could definitely find the knockout here. The reason that I don't really trust him is that his cardio and durability aren't consistent enough. Levy can be hurt and he gets hurt somewhat regularly. His cardio forces him to slow down late in fights and he can't get those takedowns late the same way he does early on. His MMA skills are decent enough, but those two things really hold him back. On the other side, we have Genaro Valdez. Valdez isn't really a guy who I rate all that highly in any one area, but he just creates the kind of fight that he wants very well. He wants to come out and have the fight divulge into a brawl and see what happens. In that kind of fight, he has as good a chance as any. He's hyper aggressive, throws a lot of strikes, and has good power. His cardio and durability also aren't great, but I think it's because he doesn't pace himself at all. He's so aggressive that he can be tagged cleanly and Levy will have that chance here. I do think Levy could and should grapple here though. If he does, he really shouldn't have a problem and would have a very good chance to finish Valdez on the mat. However, I really don't trust Levy to not get clipped and knocked out. I have to pick Levy, but I don't think there's a way to feel good about it.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -215
There's really no way that I'm betting Levy at over -200 against most fighters and I really have no interest in Valdez either. Valdez's best shot is a wild exchange ending with him getting a knockout, which is possible, but not likely enough for me to look at him at +160 or so. Levy should have him covered with the wrestling, but I just can't buy into him to due a potential cardio issue holding him back. I think the way to go is with the under 2.5 rounds. It is a bit juiced, so there's not a ton of meat on the bone there, but it still may not be all that bad of a look. Either Valdez is going to knock him out early or he's likely to get finished himself. If Levy gets the early takedown, there really is no reason he shouldn't be able to finish him there. You guys know that I'm not really the one that looks to play O/U with inflated lines, but this may very well be the one to do with.
Tracy Cortez defeats Amanda Ribas Result: cancelled
This is the part of this post every week where I wonder what the match making meetings were like and how the idea of this fight was even conceived. I don't know why Ribas is fighting at 125 and I don't know why this is the matchup in general, but here we are. This is kind of a weird fight and I don't really have a good read one way or the other. This fight is going to have one of 3 out comes in all likelihood. The first is that Cortez can get takedowns and control Ribas on top. She would probably end up getting 10 minutes of control time in that case and winning a clean 30-27. There's also the scenario where she can't get takedowns and then Ribas would absolutely demolish her on the feet. I don't think Ribas is Anderson Silva or anything, but she is very clearly the better striker in my opinion and I really don't think Cortez has much for her there. The third is that we get a bit of each and we get a really messy split decision, but I think that is the least likely option. I think that Cortez would be fine on top. Ribas isn't particularly aggressive from guard and I think Cortez is just too good to get triangled or arm barred, even if Ribas does have a slightly better BJJ skill set. The bigger worry for me is if she can actually get her down in the first place. I do ultimately think she does though as I think her wrestling is better. She should also be the bigger and stronger woman as Ribas is really a strawweight in my opinion. That size and strength could allow Cortez to just muscle her to the ground and hold Ribas down. I lean Cortez slightly in this one.
Bets to consider: moneylines (about-110/-110)
I think the way to play this fight would really be to choose a side. If you have a better feel for this fight, you can probably get what looks like a really good price on the winner in hindsight. What I really don't get though is how this fight is going over 2.5 at -370, but Cortez is -108 right now. If this fight is going the distance at that high of a rate, to me, that indicates that Cortez is having some degree of success. If Ribas is winning, Cortez isn't getting takedowns and she is in big trouble on the feet. If you like Ribas or maybe even just lean Ribas, then I think you have to think finish is more likely than the number you're getting. Cortez will win almost exclusively by decision as I don't think she's aggressive enough with her ground and pound and her submission game isn't dangerous enough against someone like Ribas. If you're looking to be the over, that seems, to me, that you do think Cortez has some success. I could be wrong there, but it makes sense to me at least.
Jonathan Pearce defeats Darren Elkins Result: Pearce by decision (3-1)
This is a weird fight, but I'm all about it. Peace and Elkins are two fighters who have a lot in common. They're guys who go through the fire on the feet and then do their best work in the grappling. The difference is that Pearce is younger, bigger, stronger, faster, and more athletic right now. Elkins is aging and appears to be in the home stretch of his career. He still has some of the skills that have allowed him to even make it this far, but he is starting to fade. He can still wrestle and his cardio is still there, but his athleticism is deteriorating and he's started getting beat to positions more often. His durability is starting to go as well. His striking isn't great as it's a bit rudimentary and the volume isn't really there. Pearce really should have the skills to win this fight a majority of the time. His wrestling is probably better even though I do have some concerns about his submission grappling. He has a tendency to stick his neck into guillotines, which is a very live outcome here. However, I think the youth and athletic advantages should have Pearce getting most of the takedowns here. I do worry that he could get outscrambled, but I'm not sure exactly how likely it is that Elkins does it for the entire fight or that he has the quickness and strength to pull it off consistently. On the feet, Pearce will be faster and more powerful, but his striking defense really doesn't exist. I don't think Elkins is the guy, but if he keeps winning, he's going to get knocked out badly at some point. He has to clean it up and Elkins certainly could clip him and knock him out. I just think JSP is the better fighter right now, but these are the fights that Darren Elkins has made a living winning, so we'll see.
Bets to consider: Elkins ML +350
This is kind of a tough fight to bet. I'm not really convinced that this fight finishes, but I'm not passionate enough to bet the over at +105 either. The one thing I do believe is that -520 on Pearce is asking to get burned. These guys are just way too similar for me to have any interest in that. Seeing Pearce have a problem with guys creating scrambles who aren't as good there as Elkins is a big concern. I don't think Pearce will look -500 in this fight. Even though I am generally confident in Elkins covering his price, I really don't think he wins this fight at any significant clip either. I think you're really trapped by the number on the Elkins side, but I really don't feel the need to play it either. It's just a strange spot.
Michael Johnson defeats Marc Diakiese Result: Johnson by decision (4-1)
If you've been reading for any period of time, you probably know that I'm a bigger fan of Michael Johnson than is good for my health. I just think Johnson is way more talented than his career record would suggest. I think his boxing is really good and when he's on, he really looks unbeatable. His jab is incredible and when he's using it, he looks like one of the best boxers in the UFC. Johnson hasn't always looked his best against grapplers, but his takedown defense is actually pretty solid. I think if this fight stays standing, then Johnson, should, at least in theory, win this fight a majority of the time. My one concern about Johnson is that I am starting to think age may be catching up with him. His last fight with Jamie Mullarkey was a bit strange and seeing Johnson losing a striking battle to Mullarkey is not a great look. What makes me want to pick him is that I just don't really trust Diakiese. He's extremely inconsistent in what he even will actually do. Sometimes he wrestles, other times he doesn't. Sometimes he's aggressive, sometimes he doesn't throw strikes at all. If Diakiese decides to stand and strike, I think I like Johnson there. He could try to wrestle, but I kind of feel like Johnson can stuff those early attempts. If he doesn't get to those takedowns early, I kind of think he'll gas out. I don't know, Diakiese is just so hard to predict and I like Johnson's striking.
Bets to consider: Johnson ML +250, O2.5 -215
I know I'm biased on the Johnson side, but betting Marc Diakiese at -300 is asking to have your heart broken. Johnson really is the only side here in my opinion. I don't know that I'll actually play Johnson just because his last fight has me wondering how much he has left in the tank, but he's the only side. I think the over 2.5 is actually an interesting look despite the juice. I just don't really see the path to a finish besides something wild. Diakiese couldn't get a submission in his last two against some of the worst grapplers in the division, so I don't see why he would submit Johnson. Diakiese hasn't had the most consistent chin in the world, but I do think Johnson may be losing some of the snap on his punches and he's not the biggest knockout threat in general. This should go the distance and vast majority of the time.
Scott Holtzman defeats Clay Guida Result: Guida by decision (4-2)
This is a bit of a strange one. I don't really feel great about it, but I do like Holtzman here I think. Holtzman is a pretty good striker and he puts out decent volume with solid power behind it. He isn't the best grappler in the world, but he's good there as well. He can mix in some takedowns when he needs to and stops takedowns fairly well too. His get up game is generally pretty solid whenever he has been taken down in the past. The red flags in Holtzman's game are kind of secondary things. The one in cage concern is that Holtzman has struggled in the clinch and has been held against the cage at times and Guida is certainly capable of doing just that. The next is that Holtzman is coming off of a long layoff and it's hard to say exactly what he'll look like now. The final thing is that Holtzman is coming off of two very ugly losses. Now, those came to Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot, so that's not nothing as well. Holtzman was beaten up pretty badly both times though, so that takes a toll on someone. I think father time has finally caught up with Clay Guida. He's never been the best striker in the world and his volume is on the lower side. He gets hurt more often now as well. He's kind of backed off the wrestling to a degree on top of that too. He isn't attempting as many takedowns as he used to and he has been submitted his fair share. I like Holtzman here in a perfect world. He should be the better fighter, but maybe time has just caught up to him as well.
Bets to consider: Holtzman ML -168
I really think that Holtzman should be the side here. I think the time away should do him well as he has had time to recover from those knockouts. Holtzman is going to be better on the feet and as long as he doesn't get stuck on the cage, I think he's fine. He should stuff the takedowns and even if he goes down, I trust him to get back up. I don't think Guida presents the speed or athleticism that Gamrot and Dairush brought that knocked Holtzman out, so I really don't see much of a path for Guida. The one real route is him controlling long stretches of the fight against the cage and while I do think it is possible, that's not really the upside I'm looking for when placing a bet.
Angela Hill defeats Emily Ducote Result: Hill by decision (5-2)
This is a bit of a strange one, but I'm here for it. I've gone back and forth on it, but I think I slightly prefer Hill. Her experience is the main factor for me against the lower level competition of Ducote. I like Hill's striking and footwork in this fight for her. Hill strikes with good volume and she is usually able to move around the outside of the cage pretty well. She doesn't have great power, but that's not out of the ordinary for this division. Hill has struggled with grapplers in the past, but I don't really think that is too much of a concern here. With Ducote, I like her striking as well. The difference is that I think she is a bit flatfooted and I am concerned that Hill's movement is going to give her some serious issues. There's also the issue I talked about earlier where a young fighter gets a huge step up and that is happening here. Hill is easily Ducote's toughest fight to date and the best striker she's faced by far. Ducote does have the potential upside to wrestle, but she's really never done that in the past, so I don't see why she would start now. It should generally be a competitive fight, but I just lean towards the experience of Hill.
Bets to consider: Hill ML +116
I just don't really see how Hill ends up being an underdog here. This feels like the Rojo vs Marshall fight all over again. I just don't really like how the veteran in a competitive fight is being looked at as an underdog. It isn't an especially passionate take on my part, but if anyone should be a small favorite, it should be Hill. I don't know if I'll actually end up playing it, but I very may well. Angela Hill fights really close fights against basically everyone, so to get her a small plus money seems like it could potentially be worth the poke to me.
Phil Rowe defeats Niko Price Result: Rowe by KO (6-2)
This is a very odd fight, but I kind of like it. I originally was thinking I was going to pick Price here, but he's another guy where it seems like age is catching up to him. At his best, Niko was a guy who was going to create chaos and rely on his huge power to hurt guys and get knockouts. He's been hyper aggressive and he won a lot more brawls than he lost. The problem is that I think Price is starting to lose a lot of that juice. He's just not doing the same things he used to do. His power doesn't really seem to be there anymore. His volume is still there, but he also absorbs a ton of damage. He's started to look a lot slower recently as well. I just think the things that once made Niko great are starting to fade on him. I think it should still be a good fight though as Rowe is much less experienced. The difference is that Rowe is bigger, longer, and much faster at this point. Rowe has really good power and I think he can probably knock Price out. Price is there to be hit and when Rowe starts connecting, it could get very ugly. I think Rowe is probably just the better striker and he may even be the better grappler, but I'm not really sure we'll see much there. The problem with Rowe is that he always seems to take so long to get into the fight. He's struggled to have good first rounds and always falls behind. He gets finishes, so it hasn't hurt him too much yet, but he really needs to get that ironed out. I do prefer Rowe though as his athletic advantages should shine as Price is going to allow Rowe to connect.
Bets to consider: Rowe ML +104
Another tough fight to bet here. My props are currently locked on my sportsbook, so I'll have to come back to that. I would have to lean Rowe on the moneyline, but it isn't really wide enough that I'm running to the window. I just think Rowe's length and speed are going to really give Niko some issues and his lack of striking defense is going to be a problem. I think Niko may just be nearing the end and the youth and athleticism of Rowe is what has me thinking he should be a small favorite.
Eryk Anders defeats Kyle Daukaus Result: Anders by KO (7-2)
Another upset here, but Daukaus is just a guy that I've had a hard time figuring out. He's one of those fighters who I always say has some decent skills, but sort of lacks the intermediate things that link those skills together in a way that consistently translates to wins. Daukaus is a base grappler and he's a pretty talented one. His submission game is pretty solid and he's dangerous from a variety of positions. What holds him back there is that he's not the best wrestler, so he can't always get the fight to the ground. He's not the strongest guy ever either, which only makes things more difficult for him. On the feet, I wouldn't say he's a poor striker, but he's just not very interesting there. He lacks a bit of power, but he does have length. He's fine technically, but he's so low volume that he often falls behind on the numbers. I'm not sure that his defense is all that great and he's not particularly durable, so that holds him back as well. Daukaus has good MMA skills, but the lack of athletic traits and volume in his striking prevent him from elevating right now. Anders is sort of the opposite in a lot of ways. He has all of the athletic traits you would want, but the MMA skills have held him back. Anders is probably a base grappler as well and he is more of a wrestler. I think Anders probably has the better chance at getting takedowns of the two, but he's a worse grappler once it hits the floor, so I'm not sure that's the best route for him. I could definitely see him getting guillotined or caught in a D'arce choke here. I think Anders best route would be in the clinch. He should have a significant strength advantage in this fight, so he probably could hold Daukaus on the side of the cage and land some strikes there. We've seen Daukaus struggle in the clinch at times, so that's a spot for Anders to exploit. At space, Anders isn't the best striker ever, but also not the worst. He has power, but he's just so low volume that it really hasn't meant a whole lot. I think Anders could use his size and strength to control this one along the fence and as long as he doesn't get submitted, he would probably be the guy in top position if the fight goes to the mat.
Bets to consider: Anders ML +172, U2.5 rounds +142
Couple of interesting spots here. I think the Anders money line is a fine spot to look. I'm just not all that high on Daukaus unless he can make significant improvements to his striking or wrestling. A BJJ based approach has it's limitations in 2022, especially when it's lacking the high end athleticism. It wouldn't surprise me if Anders got submitted though, which is why the under is tempting. It would also cover Daukaus getting knocked out because I really don't trust his durability, especially against someone like Anders. I'll probably play Anders here and then consider the under.
Jack Hermansson defeats Roman Dolidze Result: Dolidze by KO (7-3)
In short, I just think Hermansson is the better fighter here. He's more experienced against a higher level of competition with a more well rounded skill set. He's going to be the better striker in this one by quite a bit. He has the better footwork and movement then pairs a high output style to go with it. He doesn't have the most power in the world, but he hasn't really needed it for the most part. I think Jack is a pretty good grappler as well. He's not the best in terms of offensive wrestling, but when the fight hits the ground, I think he's better in this one. His scrambling ability is really good and he's shown off his own submission game at times as well. Hermansson has been knocked out and knocked down in the past, so that could be a concern against someone with the power of Dolidze, but that's really about it in terms of worries. Dolidze is a guy who relies on big moments over a process based approach. He's incredibly low volume on the feet and is just hoping to land the big counter shot and find the knock out. Hermansson should be able to move along the outside and just land jabs and kicks like he did against Chris Curtis if he wants. Dolidze has some wrestling, but I don't know that he'll be able to get Jack down. Even if he did, I think Jack out scrambles him and either ends up on top or gets back to his feet. The knockout is a potential outcome, but it's really the only path for Dolidze in my mind. This should be a pretty good fight for Hermansson.
Bets to consider: Hermansson ML -194, O2.5 rounds-158
I think Jack really is the side here if you want to go money line. He really has a vast majority of the paths to victory in my mind. Dolidze has to be hoping for a quick knockout. I don't think he's a good enough wrestler to just ride out top time. I don't think he throws with enough volume to win a decision that way. On top of that, his cardio isn't really good enough to keep a high pace in either realm and he's taking this fight on short notice. This should be Jack's fight without too much drama in all likelihood. This fight goes over a vast majority of the time as well. That Dolidze knockout is the best chance for a finish unless he just completely gasses out late and Hermansson finishes him late. I think playing Jack is really the way to go though.
Tai Tuivasa defeats Sergei Pavlovich Result: Pavlovich by KO (7-4)
This fight is kind of weird, but it should be a great time while it lasts. We all know who Tai is at this point and he's going to do his thing. He's going to come forward, bite down on the mouth piece, and throw hands until someone goes down. He has solid leg kicks as well, but the size difference here may minimize that for him. I've seen some people call into question Tai's durability and I don't really get it. I know he's been knocked out, but he went to war with Gane before he finally got put out. We saw him eat bombs from Derrick Lewis against the cage and he was just fine. Tai is going to get hurt and go down sometimes due to the nature of the way he fights, but I don't think he has a durability problem at all. Pavlovich is on the other side and he's sort of what people think of when they think about heavyweight combat. He's a huge guy and he's got tremendous power. He may be a better striker than Tai, but I think this fight turns into a bar fight pretty quickly. The big difference is that he's significantly bigger and longer than Tai, which, if he can use it, should be a massive advantage. I just think there's a ton of unknowns about Pavlovich. To me, he's largely faced opponents who have been willing to do what he also wants to do. Tai is going to come after him, push a pace, and test his durability. I'm not sure what Pavolovich's cardio or durability are like at all. I'm not sure how he will react to adversity or how he responds to someone pressuring him. This fight will probably divulge into chaos before too long, but there's just too many questions on Pavolovich side for me to pick him here.
Bets to consider: Tuivasa ML +180
I find myself wondering what people have seen from Pavlovich that make them so confident to bet him up to -225. He's big and powerful, but we already knew that. I get that he may be able to flatten Tai early, but if he doesn't, he's almost all question marks. Tai could beat him up with low kicks. Tai could also easily knock him out. I just don't want to be on the -225 side when I'm watching and these guys are standing in the pocket trading over hands. Give me the +180 side on the more proven commodity every time.
Matheus Nicolau defeats Matt Schnell Result: Nicolau by KO (8-4)
This is an interesting fight, but I think I like Nicolau here. Nicolau is a fighter who I actually think is very good in most areas. The problem is that he just doesn't really do all that much. I think he's a very technical striker with good power, but he doesn't really throw strikes. He minimizes exchanges well and thus limits the damage, but he doesn't land enough. He's a pretty solid wrestler and overall grappler, but he just doesn't really attempt takedowns. He's also a guy who is very willing to accept the backfoot on the feet, so his optics aren't great either. However, I think he should have enough advantages here to get it done. Schnell is a decent striker at times and he has good power as well, but his durability is scary to watch at times. His chin just really isn't there and I think Nicolau could knock him out at any time. Schnell is a competent grappler, but he's not much of a wrestler. I think Nicolau could somewhat easily get him down and then stay safe on top. If Schnell came out and tried to create chaos, I think he would probably get knocked out, but volume is really the only edge that he has here. I think Nicolaue should win a majority of the time.
Bets to consider: Schnell ML +290, U2.5 +108
I'm not that high on Schnell here, but he has to be the side. Nicolau just isn't the kind of guy who I think can be that big of a favorite because his output is just so low. His low strike totals and low takedown attempts just don't allow him to be -400 against anyone of significance. He fights way too close and almost any time he goes to decision, it's going to be a competitive fight. He doesn't have the finishing ability to justify it either. Schnell really is the only side, but I'm not running to the window to put my money down on him either. I think the under is a bit interesting though as Schnell is going to have to go for it in order to win and his durability could very well result in him being finished. Schnell is going to have to go with a kill or be killed game plan and I think this fight finishes at a very solid rate.
Rafael Dos Anjos defeats Bryan Barberena Result: Dos Anjos by submission (9-4)
I have no idea how this fight came together, but it should be a good fight for RDA. Dos Anjos is getting older now, but he's not really showing many signs of slowing. Maybe he's aged out of the true title picture and top 5, but he's still really good. He's not the highest output striker in the world, but he is a pretty solid one and when he starts mixing in the takedowns, it's an incredibly dangerous combination. I think the ground is where he can really take control though. He should be able to get takedowns, it's just whether or not he can maintain control. I think RDA really has him covered and should win without too much of an issue unless his chin is just gone. Despite being noticeably younger and fighting lower competition, Barberena is actually the guy who has looked like father time is catching up to him. He just doesn't look like the past version of himself at all. He's started to look a bit slow and the power doesn't seem to be there against opponents he should have knocked out. He has a volume striking advantage, but RDA is more technical. Barberena doesn't stop takedowns well and even though his get ups are historically good, I don't know that he's ready for someone with RDA's top game. Dos Anjos didn't look great when he went up to welterweight before, but I just kind of think that he's better right now and he should be ok.
Betting thoughts:
This is a tough spot to bet as things are kind of inflated. You obviously can't bet RDA at -600 as there's just no room for any value there at all. At the same time, Barberena hasn't done anything recently to instill any confidence in playing him either. RDA inside the distance is +155 and that's just not big enough for me to really want to get involved. The under is at +152 and RDA is the only guy with finishing upside. The over is around -190, but there's a good enough chance that RDA can submit Barberena to keep me away from that. I think this is a pretty safe pass spot.
Stephen Thompson defeats Kevin Holland Result: Thompson by KO (10-4)
This is a bit of a weird one, but it should be interesting. It's two guys who want to strike, but who are primarily counter strikers. Thompson probably has the technical advantage as well as significantly more experience against higher level competition. Holland lacks there, but he has most of the physical traits. He's bigger, taller, longer, faster and more powerful. That puts most of the finishing upside on his side as well. The thing that makes me lean Thompson is that no matter how bad he looks on the ground, he's just not a guy that people look good against on the feet. No one has extended success standing with Thompson and I don't see that starting now. Unless his chin is just cooked, which it could be, then I think this fight will be close. In a close fight, I want the experience and fight IQ of Thompson. Maybe the athletic traits are just too much to deal with, but if they're not, then I like Thompson here in a close one.
Bets to consider: Thompson by decision +390
To build off of what I just said, if you're like me and think Thompson has a real chance, then by decision is the way to go. Thompson doesn't really finish guys and Holland is extremely durable. I think the overs are a good look here as well. Both guys look to counter, so we could get a slower paced fight with both guys doing a bit of staring.
That's it for me on this one. Enjoy the card and the rest of your weekend. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Marcelo Rojo ML .5 units at +136 to win .68 units - .5 units
Michael Johnson ML .25 units at +250 to win .63 units + .63 units
Phil Rowe ML .75 units at +104 to win .78 units + .78 units
Eryk Anders ML .5 units at +172 to win .86 + .86 units
Jack Hermansson ML 3 units at -194 to win 1.55 units - 3 units
Tai Tuivasa ML .25 units at +180 to win .45 units - .25 units
Stephen Thompson by decision .5 units at +390 to win 1.95 units - .5 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: -1.99 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 10.53 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 8.54 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 10 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 295 - 174
Updated Year to Date Record: 305 - 178
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