While it hasn't been big money, we've been in the positive for two consecutive weeks, so that's progress. Now, we have to start building on that to get some more productive weeks and with a very large card, we should have some opportunities to do just that. We have an extra PPV this month and it's a pretty big one with the completion of the Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman trilogy. Their last fight created the moment of the year in 2022 and this one projects to be a fun one as well, this time in front of the UK fans. We also get the return of Justin Gaethje, which is always fireworks. We have some other pretty good and/or interesting fights to get into, so let's not waste any time. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Julianna Miller defeats Veronica Hardy Result: Hardy by decision (0-1)
We get things started with a very strange fight. Hardy is making her return after being away for about 3 years and it's hard to project what we could even see from her at this point. When we saw her last, she wasn't a horrible fighter, she was just a low level one. She didn't necessarily have huge, glaring holes in her game, but it's hard to say she had any strengths either. She's definitely more of a striker than a grappler, but it's hard to rate her striking as any more than mediocre. She's ok there and she's tough, but she doesn't throw a ton of volume and she takes way more damage than you would like. Her grappling hasn't looked very good and she gets taken down far too easily. Now, she could have definitely improved quite a bit in her time away, but it's really just speculation as to how much better she is and how that gets offset with being away from competition for so long. At the same time, I'm not super high on Miller either. She needs to refine her game before she is capable of making any sort of run, but she does bring a skill set that generally translates to wins at her current level. She's an ok grappler and brings legitimate physicality. She's not a great striker, but she is aggressive and has decent cardio to go with it. If this fight were to be all striking, it's probably a moderately competitive fight, but Miller's cardio, volume, and power edge slide it in her favor. The more likely outcome is that Miller is able to get some takedowns and she's able to look really good on top. She's aggressive with her ground and pound and Hardy hasn't always looked great on bottom. It wouldn't shock me if Hardy were able to find some sort of submission, but it feels like a longshot. I think Miller ends up looking decent in this spot.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -118
For the second week in a row, I don't have any props on the prelims when I started writing, so I'll have to wait for the numbers. However, I can't really look at this money line and see any value. Miller really isn't the caliber of fighter where I would feel confident in laying a huge number. She's only 5 professional fights in against not great competition, so I need to see more of her before I'm looking at anything juiced for her. At the same time, it's hard to want to bet a fighter at any number with as many unknowns as Hardy has in this fight. I guess if I had to go a way, it may be the under, depending on what that number looks like. Miller should be able to get on top and be aggressive with her ground and pound. She can probably get a stoppage and the only way Hardy would have a chance would be to find a submission from guard. If we get a decent plus number here, I think that's the way to go. At -118, I don't think I'll be particularly interested unfortunately.
Ludovit Klein defeats Jai Herbert Result: majority draw (0-1-1)
This fight is a bit more interesting, at least on paper. On the feet, I like a lot of what Herbert does. He's long and is a pretty technical striker. He has decent output, at least when he's going good, and he has pretty good power to go with it. His cardio isn't great, but it's not completely horrible either. There are two main things that continue to hold Herbert back. I think his defense relies too much on his length and when guys get inside on him, he is there to be hit. On top of it, his durability hasn't really been there and he's been on the wrong side of a few pretty ugly knockouts now, which isn't going to help matters. His grappling has also been pretty bad, to say the least. He doesn't stop takedowns well and he hasn't looked very good off of his back. At the same time, Klein has some issues of his own. He's a decent striker in his own right, but he relies a little too much on big actions. I don't think his cardio is great anyways, but that only makes it worse. He doesn't have great output and slows down as the fight progresses. After his last fight, it seems pretty clear that he would have the grappling advantage here. With how much Herbert has struggled there, it really is hard to pick him, even though I think he probably wins the striking as long as he stays conscious. I just have to assume Klein can come out and get takedowns and maintain control basically whenever he wants to though.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -148
This is one where I can't even list anything until we get numbers. Depending on exactly what I get for an over or under, I could see myself playing either side. If Fanduel gives an over 1.5, I probably play the over there with a decent number. I don't trust Herbert's durability and I don't doubt that Klein could get knocked out himself, but I really just expect Klein to shoot takedowns here. If that is the case, he probably just rides him out and top times him over 3 rounds. I don't think I can really bet Klein at close to -200 just because I do prefer Herbert standing. A heavy grappling game plan could slow Klein down even faster than usual, so I'm not looking there. If I knew we would get mostly striking, I would play Jai at +154, but I just can't reasonably expect him to stay upright and once he goes down, he probably gets held down. I guess I was hoping for a little bit better of a number on the over, but I think this is playable.
Joanne Wood defeats Luana Carolina Result: Wood by decision (1-1-1)
Next up we have a somewhat curious fight as we have a couple of women coming off of down performances. The difference to me is that Wood is taking the biggest step down in competition that she's gotten in years might be coming into the best opponent she's ever fought. Wood certainly hasn't looked her best of late, but I think the gap here is fairly significant. Wood is more experienced and I think she's just better everywhere. I think she's the better striker, with better output, and better cardio. I also think she's the better grappler, although I'm no so sure she chooses to go to it. Carolina is big and she's a fine striker in her own right, but I think there's just a clear skill gap. Wood's last 5 fights have been against Jennifer Maia, Jessica Eye, Lauren Murphy, Taila Santos, and Alexa Grasso, who have all challenged Valentina Shevchenko for the title over the last few years. Carolina is coming off of getting dominated and then put out cold by Molly McCann. While I'm sure Wood is starting to decline and Carolina may still be improving, I just don't think we've seen that gap close at all. This should be a good spot for Wood in my opinion.
Bets to consider: Wood ML -184
I think this is a good buy low spot on Wood. Even if you think Wood is declining, assuming she loses or is in a 50/50-ish fight with Carolina is a big leap to make. I'm not sure what the path is for Carolina here. Could she sneak out a greasy 29-28 split based on landing a few big shots? I guess. However, she's going to be behind on the strike totals and I think pretty significantly. Carolina has never landed a takedown in the UFC, so she isn't going to get any top time. Could she armbar Wood from guard if she gets taken down? I suppose, but we saw Carolina getting out grappled by Molly McCann and we saw where her grappling ranks when she fought Blanchfield. I just think Wood has virtually every path outside of some flash knockouts, a hail mary submission attempt, and moment based narrow split decisions.
Jake Hadley defeats Malcolm Gordon Result: Hadley by KO (2-1-1)
I think this should be a pretty good spot for Hadley. Gordon can be dangerous, but I don't think he can get himself in the positions he'll need consistently enough in this matchup. Gordon is a competent enough grappler and he does a good job of creating weird scrambles where he can get into a dominant position. However, he's really not much of a wrestler and he ends up on bottom too often. I suppose he could find a submission here, but I think Hadley has the advantage in that department. Gordon gives away position too consistently as well. Even if he scrambled to an advantageous spot, I don't trust him to maintain it. On the feet, Gordon is fast and he has some pop for his size, but he is pretty low output and his durability is a huge problem. Hadley really should have him covered. He's the better wrestler and he has the better submission game. While standing, he has the better pace and cardio. With Gordon's chin, I think Hadley should probably just strike with him. He should be able to out work him and then put him down at some point.
Bets to consider: Hadley ITD -165
This is another fight where I have no interest in the money line. Hadley is a huge favorite, but it's mostly justified. I could take a look at the under in this one. I just can't really expect Gordon to fight to a decision, especially against someone who is going to force the action as much as Hadley. His only real path is if he's able to attack a submission, so I think this fight probably should finish, it's just a matter of what number we get on the under. We ended up with an under 1.5, which is sort of a non starter for me. I think I would rather go with Hadley ITD, even though it's a bit inflated at this point.
Dusko Todorovic defeats Christian Duncan Result: Duncan by KO (2-2-1)
Bit of a weird fight here, but it should be a fun one nonetheless. Duncan is making his UFC debut and while he has some talent, I think there's still a lot of work to do before he becomes a real threat to higher level competition. Right now, Duncan is more physical traits than developed skills. He's a fast and explosive athlete, especially at his size, but that's sort of it. He has very real power and a knockout wouldn't surprise me one bit. Dusko doesn't have good defense and his durability hasn't been great recently either. If Duncan starts connecting, it's really only a matter of time before Dusko goes down. While I haven't been particularly high on Dusko since he came over to the UFC, I think this should be a decent spot for him for the most part. I don't know that he's more technical, but he will definitely be the more active striker. He doesn't have special power, but he doesn't have pillows for fists either. We know Dusko has the better cardio as well. I think Dusko is the better grappler, even though I don't think his wrestling is anything more than ordinary (at best). If Dusko doesn't get knocked out, I really don't know how he loses. It's just a matter of Dusko staying safe enough while Duncan's fresh and then turning up the heat once he starts to slow. I think Dusko can clinch here and really where Duncan down if he wants, he just has to stay awake long enough to do it. I think he can though and his experience should be an advantage. Dusko has almost as many UFC fights as Duncan has pro bouts and has wins over opponents better than anyone Duncan has fought.
Bets to consider: Todorovic ML +164
I think this line is just kind of out of whack. I just don't really see how you can line Duncan anywhere past maybe -125ish. For as dangerous as he is early and as live as Dusko being knocked out is, the fight really flips in the opposite direction after a round. Dusko has the better pace, better cardio, and he's the better grappler all with more experience against better competition. The defense and durability combined with the power of Duncan is a big equalizer, but I just don't see how that puts Duncan out towards -200. I think this fight needs to be lined, at worst, competitively, if not having Dusko as a small favorite. I'll probably hate myself when I watch Dusko get flattened 90 seconds in, but I just think you have to play it and hold your breath.
Lerone Murphy defeats Gabriel Santos Result: Murphy by decision (3-2-1)
I like Lerone Murphy, but he really needs to take some steps forward if he wants to make a push. I think he's a very talented striker with good speed and power, but he just doesn't throw enough. That's made to be a bigger issue because his grappling is very weak. He doesn't grapple at all offensively and he can't stop takedowns well at all. With that said, I think he should be mostly ok here. Santos is jumping in on short notice, so it's hard to say what kind of condition he'll really be in. He seems like a solid enough all around fighter, but he has limited experience against low level fighters. On the feet, I don't think he's a better striker than Murphy, but the volume component could make things close there. Murphy has been susceptible to grappling, but I also don't really know that Santos can give him trouble there. Even if he does go down, I think Murphy can probably get back up. Murphy certainly isn't a cardio machine, but given just how little notice Santos is getting, I have to think Murphy has an edge there in this fight. I think Murphy is probably ok here with the potential that he's just a level higher than Santos.
Bets to consider: Murphy ML -176
This isn't really a fight that I'm looking to play. The unknowns with Santos paired with the inconsistencies in Murphy's game just leaves too much up in the air. Murphy could just end up being too good and he just washes Santos out and looks -500 and the under cashes easily. Santos could be just fine and grinds his way to decision and makes this fight really competitive with the over cashing without issue. I just think there's too many variables that I don't have enough of a feel on to really have an inclination to go in any direction here.
Muhammad Mokaev defeats Jafel Filho Result: Mokaev by submission (4-2-1)
This is a weird fight to put together, but I guess the UFC was concerned after Mokaev got pushed by Malcolm Gordon last time out. They made sure to give him a fight where he really should be able to handle things without issue. Filho is coming off of the contender's series and he really wasn't even especially impressive there. He's got some power for his size, but that's really about it. His volume really fades off after the first round because his cardio isn't great. His grappling really isn't anything special either and drops off as he slows down. Maybe Mokaev isn't quite as polished as we thought he could, but he still does a few things pretty well. He's an aggressive grappler and he has the cardio to push. That really should be enough here. As long as he doesn't get clipped and knocked out, he should be just fine. He should either pick up a finish over the back half of the fight or grind out a decision.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 3 -110
This one doesn't come without risk, but it is a decent enough number. Mokaev should be able to get takedowns without too much of a problem in this fight. He's going to get a lot of top time, but he's been more content to maintain position than actively look to finish so far in his UFC run. I think a Mokaev finish would come late after Filho is too tired to defend himself. That could potentially come in the late second, but I think having this fight be a 50/50 proposition to just begin the third is a decent look.
Sam Patterson defeats Yanal Ashmouz Result: Ashmouz by KO (4-3-1)
This is the fight that I probably care the least about on this card. In general, I think Patterson has a lot of holes in his game that need to be patched. I don't think he has great cardio, his striking defense lacks, and his grappling defense isn't really much better. He's much more dangerous offensively as he brings real power on the feet and even has a tricky submission game, at least at times. While Patterson has some growing to do, Ashmouz may not be the guy to do it. On the feet, I prefer Patterson. I don't really think Ashmouz has the power to make Patterson pay for his lack of defense and I'm not sure Ashmouz can hold up to the power coming back at him. His striking is equally as raw as Patterson's but without the athletic traits. Ashmouz can grapple a bit and Patterson is weak there, but I don't know that Ashmouz is good enough. He could get him down, but I don't know that he holds him down. Even if he can early, I don't trust that he has the cardio to do it consistently. I just think Patterson either knocks him out early or Ashmouz dives into a guillotine after he gets tired.
Bets to consider: Patterson ITD -130
Patterson is definitely a finisher. If he's going to win, it's likely to be inside the distance. I think we may end up seeing that Ashmouz just isn't UFC caliber right now. Patterson has the power to do damage at range and then the submission game to finish chokes on the ground. I think the path for Ashmouz is having to control the fight from top, but I'm not convinced he has the grappling to do it or that he has the cardio to hold up to the pace. His experience level and strength of competition don't provide any reason for me to feel confident either. The size disadvantage for Ashmouz isn't going to help matters either
Omar Morales defeats Chris Duncan Result: Duncan by decision (4-4-1)
I think this fight actually sets up well for Morales. I am a bit worried that Morales may be ready to fall off the cliff, but if he has anything left, this should be a decent matchup for him. Chris Duncan is a guy who just wants to box and while he's not awful by any means, he's nothing special either. He wants to come forward and throw power shots. His power is good, but that's really the only part of his game that stands out. Otherwise, Duncan is sort of reliant on his opponent to give him the style of fight he wants. If someone isn't going to stand in front of him, he will probably struggle. He mixes in a takedown here and there, but I don't really expect him to try it. Even if he did, I'm not sure he holds Morales down or has the cardio to sustain it even if there is some success there for him. His defense isn't great and his durability isn't anything special either. The problem is that is also the main concern for Morales. His durability has started to fade a bit with age and he's not getting any younger. If he has anything left in the tank, I think he's alright. Morales normally does a decent job of staying on the outside. If Duncan is going to walk forward, Morales should be able to have success countering and eventually put Duncan down. If Duncan can land, he can find the knockout of his own, but I don't really think he has the skills to force Morales to trade with him.
Bets to consider: Morales ML -108
I think Morales should probably be a smallish favorite here. I think, in a fight that projects to be all standup, that he has a style that gives Duncan trouble. Neither guy has great durability, so that kind forces a closer line, but I think Morales needs to be closer to the -150 ish range. I'll probably be on him here, but not too large as he is getting up there in age now.
Jack Shore defeats Makwan Amirkhani Result: Shore by submission (5-4-1)
I've never really been a Makwan guy and I don't think this is the matchup to start. Makwan has dangerous elements to his game, but I would be pretty surprised to find out that any of them pose a real threat to Jack Shore. Makwan is a submission reliant grappler with cardio problems. That's just not a skillset that is ever going to translate to consistent wins. He's not much of a wrestler, so he doesn't reliably end up on top. On top of that, he has about 7 minutes of gas before he starts to fade rather badly. While I respect Makwan's submissions, he's not a better overall grappler than Shore. I think Shore could get takedowns and ride out rounds on top if he wants them, but I don't know that he'll feel the need. He would probably be much safer to stay standing. Makwan doesn't offer much in the striking as he's low volume and doesn't have much power. Maybe Makwan throws up some interesting submissions early, but Shore really should have him covered.
Bets to consider: Shore ITD -135
I guess Shore could just ride out the fight on top, but it just doesn't feel likely. If he's having success, Makwan is likely going to start to fade and gas out. Makwan is more likely to get finished late than early, which is why I'm staying away from an under here. I wouldn't be looking to play an over 1.5 though as I think Shore could potentially just overwhelm Makwan or maybe Makwan finds the hail mary submission early. I don't really have a great feel for anything on this fight from a betting perspective though.
Marvin Vettori defeats Roman Dolidze Result: Vettori by decision (6-4-1)
I've been fairly critical of Dolidze in the past, but this is probably the worst possible matchup for him outside of the elite fighters in the division (Adesanya and Whittaker). I really struggle to see how or where Roman wins this fight. Dolidze has shown himself to be an incredibly high level finisher, but I just don't see that here. He has power standing, but Vettori is as durable as it gets. He has some submissions, but I don't think Roman gets on top of Vettori and don't think he sweeps him either. All of that really limits Dolidze's best traits. Roman does have serious weaknesses too in his output and cardio. He is extremely low output both on the feet and in terms of takedowns. I think that is mostly because his cardio though. He just doesn't have the gas to push any kind of a pace at all. Even in fights that don't have a pace, he's looking gassed as they go on. Vettori has elite durability, elite cardio, and fantastic output for his size. That is pretty much the recipe to beat Dolidze and I think we see that here.
Bets to consider: Vettori ML -275
I'm never the guy to bet the big juiced favorites and especially on Vettori, who I am generally not a fan of, but this is really his fight. The styles set up perfectly for him to dominate. I think he could very easily look -500. I don't want to touch any props here though. Vettori isn't historically a finisher, but given the Dolidze cardio, he could just finish him based on Dolidze gassing out. Just play the money line here.
Casey O'Neill defeats Jennifer Maia Result: Maia by decision (6-5-1)
This is a very interesting fight and one that I'm looking forward to. I'm sort of split on how I feel about it though. If the fight stays standing, I feel good about Maia. She should just be the better striker in this one. She's the more technical boxer with much more experience and reliable output. I also feel pretty confident that this fight isn't going to stay standing for the full 15 minutes. In that case, O'Neill is going to be the one on top. Maia just doesn't stop takedowns well enough. Casey is very aggressive with her ground and pound and while that could create an opening for Maia to snatch an armbar or a triangle, I don't think that's likely. The question mark is that Casey is returning from injury. I ultimately come down on the O'Neill side because I know she's going to get takedowns and I know she's going to be aggressive on top when she does. Maia just hasn't looked great recently, but I do recognize that it's against tough competition. I think O'Neill's ground and pound is the most impactful thing that happens in this fight and I don't trust Maia to stop takedowns or even work her way up, so I lean that way.
Bets to consider: O'Neill by decision +125
This fight is pretty much guaranteed to go to decision unless something weird happens. If you want to go Maia, I don't blame you though, but stick with the money line on her. She's a big enough dog that I don't think the extra juice is worth the squeeze. Maia's willingness to fight off of her back at times has me thinking that Casey can get it done and it would most likely come via decision. I'll probably be on this one.
Gunnar Nelson defeats Bryan Barberena Result: Nelson by decision (7-5-1)
This is a strange fight, but Barberena jumped in on shorter notice after Daniel Rodriguez had to pull out. This is just a terrible matchup for Barberena and I don't think it goes particularly well for him. Barberena is a guy who needs to be able to stand in the pocket and trade with someone and that's the last thing Nelson is going to do. Bam Bam is the better striker with better power, but I just kind of doubt he gets to use it much. Nelson won't stand in front of him and is eventually going to shoot for a takedown. Once he does, Barberena is going to go down because he really doesn't stop takedowns at all. He has been able to get up at times in the past, but he has a bad habit of giving his back and that is a really bad idea against Nelson. If Barberena gives his back, Nelson is going to take it and likely submit him. Nelson isn't the most durable guy in the world, so if Barberena can somehow keep it standing, he could very well knock him out, but I just don't find that particularly likely.
Bets to consider: Nelson ITD -140, U2.5 rounds -142
I guess this is a matter of personal preference. Do you want the extra 2.5 minutes, but you lock yourself into a Gunnar submission? Or do you sacrifice that half a round, but cover a potential Barberena knockout? The number is the same on both, so you really just have to decide which is more valuable to you. I think either way is a decent enough look though. If Nelson is getting the fight down, then he should finish. If he's not getting takedowns, then he was never the side anyways, so the ITD is a decent way to shave the number down.
Rafael Fiziev defeats Justin Gaethje Result: Gaethje by decision (7-6-1)
This should be an awesome fight. I've kind of been talking myself in circles, both pick and betting wise, but I think it sort of has to come down to the fact that Fiziev is trending up and Gaethje is sort of trending down. In a fight that projects to be a standup war for however long it goes, I do generally want to be on the side of the younger, faster fighter who has taken less damage. That is what Fiziev is here. I think he has the athletic advantages in this fight as well as being the more technical striker. The questions with him are still his cardio, especially if his opponent can push a pace, which Gaethje will. The other question is his durability against more powerful fighters, which we haven't gotten to see yet. We sort of know what Gaethje is by now, I just think he's diminishing a bit. He's always taken a lot of damage and fought through it, but it just seems like his durability is starting to fade just a bit. If he can survive this one early, I think he can still turn it into a dog fight and win. I'm just not sure he makes it deep into the fight without being severely compromised. I do prefer Fiziev slightly, but I'm not ruling out Gaethje at all.
Bets to consider: Gaethje ML +190
I'm not sure that I'll actually pull the trigger here, but this kind of has to be the side right? Just the generally dynamics of this fight don't really allow someone to be over -200 in my opinion. No one is going to grapple, so if they're just standing and trading, it has to be at least close to a 50/50 fight. I do prefer Fiziev slightly due to his speed and technical advantages, as well as Gaethje's potential durability concerns, but not by this much. I don't know that I'll play Gaethje, but he has to be the side at almost +200.
Kamaru Usman defeats Leon Edwards Result: Edwards by decision (7-7-1)
I am badly torn on this fight. The statistics and analytical side of me tells me I have to go Usman, so that's what I'm going to do. Historically, Usman is just kind of better everywhere. He's not as technical as Leon on the feet, but the volume and power makes up for that. Usman is a much better wrestler and was taking Leon down really whenever he wanted. He was pressuring well and if he didn't get the takedown, he was clinching Leon against the cage and beating him up there. Outside of hitting the takedown in the first round, Leon wasn't having sustained success in any aspect or at any point. Nothing has really changed since August that should dramatically change any of that. The other part of me is really sort of buying into the narrative though. Usman's health, especially that of his knees, has been a talking point for years now and is coming up again. Add in the hand injury to that and he seems like a guy who's body is sort of starting to break down on him as he ages. He is starting to get up there in age now and every training camp is probably getting a little harder on him. We've seen his durability start to take some smaller steps back too. Being brutally knocked out certainly isn't going to help matters. He's also brought up retirement and the "one foot in, one foot out" approach never goes well. It's all narrative based, but there's something about it that just feels very real to me. I would have to see it to believe it, so I'm assuming he's the Kamaru Usman that was approaching all of Anderson Silva's records until proven otherwise, but there's a little doubt seeping into my mind.
Bets to consider: U4.5 rounds +152
I guess to mix both of those sides, the under at +150 is decent. If Usman is going to dominate the fight like he did most of their first two fights, he really should finish right? He has the power and Leon's been hurt before. On the other side, if Usman is just cooked physically and the knockout has him mentally in shambles with his durability gone, then he gets finished again, right? Either Usman is just a shell of himself or it's the same fight we saw last time and I'm not sure Leon really survives that kind of beating again. I'm really considering betting Usman at around the -240 line he's at right now as well.
That's it for me. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Joanne Wood ML 2 units at -174 to win 1.15 units
Dusko Todorovic ML .75 units at +172 to win 1.29 units
Omar Morales ML 1.08 units at -108 to win 1 unit
Jack Shore ITD 1 unit at -135 to win .74 units
Marvin Vettori ML 5 units at -275 to win 1.82 units
Casey O'Neill by decision 1 unit at +125 to win 1.25 units
Gunnar Nelson by submission .5 units at +105 to win .53 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 1.40 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 8.62 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 7.22 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 7 - 7 - 1
Previous Year to Date Record: 67 - 29 - 2
Updated Year to Date Record: 74 - 36 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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