We're back with UFC action this weekend in the final week of a really long run. We have next week off, so that's when the post about Colby Covington and the welterweight title picture will come. It took me a bit longer than anticipated, so I had to table it for now in order to have this come out on time. I think UFC San Antonio is going to be a pretty fun event. I think a lot of these fights are going to be close, competitive fights. I also believe we have quite a few fun matchups on our hands. I'm a proponent of idea that not every fight needs to be high level to be good, but making competitive matchups goes a long towards making even low level fights good to watch. This card does just that maybe better than any Fight Night we've seen so far this year. That leads us to a tremendous main event between Chito Vera and Cory Sandhagen. They're two fighters who I root for quite often, despite the fact that I pick against Chito every time he fights. It should be a great event and I'm genuinely looking forward to it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Victor Altamirano defeats Vinicius Salvador Result: Altamirano by decision (1-0)
With Hailey Cowan vs Tamires Vidal falling off, this is now our first fight of the night and it's a pretty interesting one, in my opinion. This fight should be pretty competitive and I've kind of wavered on which side I want. I think Altamirano is a bit better as an all around fighter, but there are some style concerns in this matchup for him. In general, I like a lot of what Altamirano does. His striking isn't other worldly or anything, but I think he's pretty solid there. His power is pretty average for the division, but he fights with a good pace and has good cardio to back it up. He puts a lot out there and he works the body pretty well. Altamirano also has the potential to grapple in this fight. I don't think he's the best wrestler in the world or anything, but he's the only one who's going to attempt takedowns in this one more than likely. I don't really know that he has any success there, but if there's any grappling success in this one, it's likely to be him. The one big thing that has me worried for Altamirano in this fight is his striking defense. He just takes way too much damage and absorbs clean shots. He's been pretty durable to date, but Salvador has very real power. Salvador has really good power for the division and if he's landing clean, Altamirano could be in some trouble. Salvador isn't a particularly technical striker though and relies more on some wide hooks. I think his best chance to win here is early though as I don't trust his gas that much. I don't think Salvador has poor cardio necessarily, but he doesn't pace himself at all. He's going to come out hot and go as hard as he can for as long as he can. It's been good enough a lot of the time so far, but if he doesn't knock Altamirano out early, I don't think this goes well for him. Altamirano will be able to push a pace on him late and could find a late finish, depending how gassed Salvador is down the stretch.
Bets to consider: Altamirano ML -106
I agree that this fight should be competitively lined, but I kind of think Altamirano should be the favorite side. He should be out towards the -135-ish range in my opinion. I just think the cardio advantage and the small grappling upside that he has needs to make him the favorite. His lack of striking defense combined with Salvador's power limits him to a small favorite though. If Altamirano's durability can hold up in the first round, I like him to get it done in the second half of the fight. Altamirano has some finishing potential of his own early as well, so that isn't to be ignored either. I wouldn't go big, but I think making a play on Altamirano as the underdog is the way to go.
Trey Ogden defeats Manuel Torres Result: cancelled
This is another fight that I'm interested in. I guess I like the Ogden side, even though I don't feel particularly great about it. I've never been all that high on him, but I feel like he has the style dynamics in his favor. Ogden is a grappler and while I don't know that he's a great one, it feels like he knows his strengths and weaknesses. Ogden has a wrestling background and I do sort of suspect that he can get takedowns here. There isn't a lot of video of Torres grappling, but what we do have isn't great. I think that an Ogden takedown is at least the end of the round. On the feet, Ogden is lacking, but like I said before, he knows his strengths and weaknesses. He's not going to stand in front of Torres and engage in a war with him. Because of that, I do think I like the Ogden side. I just don't know that Torres really has the tools if he's not being given the exact fight he wants. Now, he could just be too physical for Ogden and run through him. He has the power and aggression to potentially just melt Ogden right away and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. However, if he doesn't do that early, I think Ogden is very live. If Torres gets over aggressive, Ogden is going to take him down. I also like Ogden's experience in a fight like this as well. I don't have a great feel for this one, but a guy who has a grappling edge with more experience against a younger fighter who is probably going to be over aggressive? I don't know, just kind of a lean.
Bets to consider: Ogden ML +128, O1.5 rounds -136
From a betting standpoint, I think it has to be Ogden on the money line. I don't know that I'm really jumping at +128 though. I know I picked him outright and in that case, I probably should bet him at almost +130, but I just really don't know if I want to. Maybe I'll take a small shot on him, but I'm leaning towards no right now. Torres is younger with all of the athletic upside and he should still be getting better. If he has improved really even a little bit, he could very likely finish Ogden here. I think I like the over 1.5 rounds a little more though. If Ogden doesn't get nuked out of there in the first minute, I think the over looks ok. Ogden isn't the guy to just sit down on his shots and engage in the pocket, so an outside striking battle should go over. If Ogden is getting takedowns, he's really not much of a finisher. He is more likely to consolidate position on top and just ride out rounds. I'm not sure I'll make the move there, but I'm thinking about it.
CJ Vergara defeats Daniel Lacerda Result: Vergara by KO (2-0)
This fight may get a little wild for as long as we get to see it. Lacerda is an all or nothing kind of guy. He is pretty dangerous for the first few minutes of the fight, but after that, his chances diminish pretty quickly. Lacerda kind of just comes out as hot as he can and if he doesn't get a finish in the first 3 or so minutes, he's sort of done. He does have skills, but he just doesn't pace himself and I don't think he has the cardio to go long even if he did pace himself better. His striking is fine. He throws volume while he can, but the it really tails off. His grappling is also pretty slick. He's not a great wrestler, but he does have some submissions if he can get position. Vergara isn't a great grappler either, but he's an ok one defensively. He's had his struggles at times, but against much better grapplers than Lacerda is. Even if Lacerda can have grappling success early, I think Vergara is good enough to survive the few minutes he needs to. On the feet, Vergara is the better striker. He brings the pressure with decent volume behind it. Once the fight starts to go his way, he's going to really put the pace on Lacerda and should finish him if this fight gets beyond the first round. I think Vergara is good enough and durable enough to survive the early onslaught and then puts it on Lacerda for the knockout win.
Bets to consider: Vergara ML -260
I'm not the guy to bet juiced favorites, but I'm starting to look to attack more favorite spots than I have in the past. I did it last week with Vettori and that worked out. I'm not advocating for that same level of confidence here, but I'm honestly considering playing Vergara here. Almost all of Lacerda's win equity comes inside the first 4 minutes. Even then, it's hard to project Lacerda actually finding that quick finish more than maybe 10% of the time. After that, Lacerda's chances are virtually 0. I don't know that Lacerda can even make it to a decision, let alone win a decision, especially in a fight like this. Vergara is going to bring the pressure and really put it on Lacerda once he tires. I'm not running to the window to play Vergara at -260, but I'm really considering having something on it. His style really should work well against Lacerda. Pace, pressure, cardio, solid boxing, and competent defensive grappling sounds like a recipe for success here.
Trevin Giles defeats Preston Parsons Result: Giles by decision (3-0)
This is a bit of a strange fight, but I think I like Giles here, as hard as that is to say. Giles is a hard guy to trust, but he really should be ok here. I just think Giles is the better mixed martial artist. I really just don't see the path for Parsons here. I get he had grappling success last time out, but out grappling someone coming up a weight class on short notice isn't exactly a sign of future success. Giles has been out grappled in the past, but by significantly better grapplers than Parsons. On the feet, Parsons is the more active striker, but I don't like his chances there. He's at a technical disadvantage and a power disadvantage. Giles has some grappling ability of his own as well and I think he's going to be the stronger guy in this one. If Parsons is forced to strike, I think he probably gets finished. He's less technical and I think he ends up getting clipped pretty badly on the counters. Parsons defense isn't great in general, so I think Giles will be able to land quite a bit. The only real drawback is Giles lack of output. He just doesn't throw enough strikes and if he isn't able to hurt Parsons, things could get a bit hairy for him. The real biggest issue in Giles game has been his decision making though. He pretty consistently makes some strange choices that have cost him fights in the past. As he gets more experience, the hope is that you see some of those things start to be corrected, but that remains to be seen. I think Giles strength keeps this fight standing and I don't really think Parsons is anything special as a wrestler or grappler. On the feet, I think Giles power and counter ability wins out and he could potentially even finish Parsons here.
Bets to consider: Giles ML -110
Much like the other money line bets I'm considering on this card, it isn't necessarily any supreme degree of confidence in one side, it's more just that the questions I have on the other don't warrant the line being where it is. In short, I think Giles is just the better fighter. I don't think seeing Parsons have grappling success in one very favorable scenario is enough to make him -110/-110 with Trevin Giles, despite all of the flaws in his game. I just think this line is incorrect and Giles should be out towards -140 or -150, that's all.
Steven Peterson defeats Lucas Alexander Result: Alexander by decision (3-1)
This is a fight that I'm looking forward to. Steve Peterson really doesn't do anything fancy, but he's really reliable to do exactly what he does. He's going to come forward, bring the pressure, and turn it into a dog fight. He has 0 defense on the feet, but he's been extremely durable to this point in his career. He's not an amazing grappler, but he has mixed in takedowns at times and he should have a path here. Alexander is a decent enough range kickboxer, but if he isn't given that style of fight, his chances start to decline pretty rapidly. If Peterson does get stuck at range, it's probably going to be a bad night for him. Alexander is much more technical and with Peterson's lack of defense, that's a tough situation. However, Peterson just isn't the guy to get stuck at range. He's going to get in Alexander's face and I kind of like him in that spot. The grappling is where Peterson could really separate himself though. While Peterson isn't a great grappler, Alexander has looked very lost there in the past. I really believe Peterson could wipe Alexander out on the mat and submit him if he really wanted to. Peterson has more ways to win. I think this is a good spot for him.
Bets to consider: Peterson finish only -140
This feels like a good spot. I think a vast majority of the finishing upside is for Peterson here. Alexander could finish if the fight stays on the outside, but Peterson isn't likely to allow that. On top of that, Peterson has always been extremely durable. With the amount of damage that he's taken, that won't last forever, but I don't really know that Alexander has that kind of power either. The much more likely scenario in my opinion is that Peterson brings the pressure and really damages Alexander on the inside. He could probably submit him somewhat easily on the ground as well. Peterson finish only at -140 feels a bit off to me.
Tucker Lutz defeats Daniel Pineda Result: Pineda by submission (3-2)
This is probably the fight that intrigues me the least on this card. This just sort of feels like two fighters trending in the opposite direction. Lutz is the younger, faster, more athletic fighter, who should still be making improvements at this stage of his career. Pineda is clearly a guy on his way out of the sport and may only have this fight left in him. Skill for skill, I think Pineda is at least competitive, if not better in almost every category. Pineda is probably the more technical striker and while his volume isn't great, it's not like Tucker Lutz is Max Holloway either. I think Pineda is probably the better grappler as well. The real difference for me is in the physical and athletic traits though. Pineda has really started to fade in those areas recently. His cardio really isn't there beyond a round and once he starts to slow, his durability fades with it. Lutz has that explosion and carries it, as well as his power and output, throughout an entire fight. I just kind of feel like this is a spot where Lutz finds the finish after a pretty competitive first round.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -120
From a money line perspective, it would have to be the Pineda side. I do think he has more MMA skills, but I just don't really trust him at this stage of his career. Even if he were able to win the first round, I don't really trust his cardio and durability down the stretch. I kind of think Lutz takes over down the stretch and can find a finish. With that said, I do think Pineda competes pretty well early. The first round should be a good one though and I think seeing an over 1.5 this close to plus money against two guys who aren't inherently finishers is at least moderately interesting. It may be a sweaty one, but I think this is playable.
Chidi Njokuani defeats Albert Duraev Result: Duraev by decision (3-3)
It's no secret that I'm a fan of Chidi, so I'm going to back him here. All things considered, I do believe this is a decent enough spot for him. I used to think Duraev had some degree of potential, but he's really disappointed in his real UFC fights so far. Chidi isn't perfect, but he at least does some things well. Chidi is a decent enough range based striker and he has real power. That really should be enough to handle Duraev here. Duraev is supposed to be a heavy grappler, but he just doesn't hit his takedowns consistently enough. Part of that is due to the fact that he just doesn't have the cardio to push hard for more than a round. Once we're beyond that point, he fades pretty badly. Chidi doesn't have a good gas tank either, but I think he pushes through his fatigue a bit better. Unless Duraev hits an instant takedown and can submit Chidi quickly, I think he's pretty behind the 8 ball here. Chidi really should finish him as I don't really trust Duraev's durability against legitimate power.
Bets to consider: Fight goes the distance +270
This is a weird fight to bet. I'm not really looking to take Chidi at -170, but I'm not looking to play Duraev either. Chidi by KO is around +120, so I don't see a ton of value there either. One very interesting way to take this would be fight goes the distance at +270. Chidi could flatten Duraev early, but if this fight makes it out of the first round, it probably gets to a decision. Neither guy has the gas to push beyond that. Duraev is going to be gassed shooting desperation takedowns with Chidi striking with a very uninspiring pace. I'm not saying I'll do it, but it is at least any interesting look.
Manel Kape defeats Alex Perez Result: cancelled
This is an intriguing matchup that I've gone both ways on. I think I do come down on the Kape side though, mostly because of recent trends for both. Kape's output does scare me though. He's so committed to being a counter striker that he has ended up just getting into staring contests at times. Kape's speed and technical striking are very real though, especially at 125 lbs. His power is there too for his size. Perez doesn't have great striking defense, which means Kape should be able to land. Perez does like to be aggressive on the feet, but I think that only lead him into being countered pretty dramatically. I was considering going with Perez though because of the grappling. Kape isn't really much of a grappler, especially off of his back. Perez is a decent enough wrestler and once he's on top, he's aggressive with his ground and pound. He does have a weird tendency of getting guillotined, but Kape really isn't much of a submission guy. If Perez commits to wrestling, I think he can pull the upset. The reason I came down on the Kape side though is I just don't really like where Perez is trending coming into this one. He didn't look great against Figueiredo and then he pulled out of a bunch of fights. When he eventually retured against Pantoja, he sort of just got run over. Kape is a guy who seems to be finding his footing in the UFC, so seeing both guys trending in opposite directions is really has me more firmly on the Kape side.
Bets to consider: Perez ML +154
If I was going to play it, I think I would rather be on the Perez side. -190 kind of feels like the upside for Kape. He has the power and technical striking advantage, but I think Perez should be able to hang with him volume wise. That means Kape has to rely on impact and the optics of landing the more powerful shots. I think he does that more often than not, but it isn't a given. He could finish Perez too as Perez just absorbs way too much damage. However, Perez has a lot of upside in the grappling department. If Perez gets him down, I kind of think he can do significant damage there. If Perez had been showing some better life lately, I may actually play this, but right now I'm waiting to see if the line can push out closer to +175 on him.
Maycee Barber defeats Andrea Lee Result: Barber by decision (4-3)
Another fight that I'm looking forward to. I really considered picking Lee here. I think she has the skills to give Barber a lot of issues. Lee is the better striker in this one and I don't particularly think its close. She's better on a technical level and in terms of output. Lee has had some struggles grappling and I do kind of think Barber can get her down, but I don't suspect that she can keep her down. What worries me more for Lee is her gas tank. She's pretty consistently slowed down in the third round of fights and Barber is going to be there to force her into a fight. Barber may not be the phenom some thought she would be, but she's still a quality fighter. This isn't an easy matchup for her either. She's going to be behind while this fight is at space. Barber does have a lot of physical advantages though and I think they probably get her to the point where she's a smallish favorite. Barber is the much more physical fighter. I think Maycee may be able to control long stretches of this fight along the cage. She could beat Lee up in the clinch and really stall this fight out. On the mat, I don't think Barber is leagues ahead, but she is likely to be the one with top time. Her cardio is better, which should allow her push harder down the stretch. I think the cardio and physicality give Barber an edge, but not a large one. She needs this fight to be grappling heavy, be it in the clinch or on the mat.
Bets to consider: Lee ML +220
I just think this line has gone way too far. Barber should be a small favorite, but nowhere near this. Her striking is significantly behind that of Lee. If this fight takes place at space for any length of time, Lee is going to win those portions of the fight. Barber could probably control this fight in the clinch if she wants. However, if it hits the ground, I think Lee should be able to get back up. The worry is that she has to work up too many times and it just takes all of her cardio away. I think this is one where I just have to play the number out of principle more than anything else.
Nate Landwehr defeats Austin Lingo Result: Landwehr by submission (5-3)
This should be a pretty fun fight. I do prefer Landwehr here, but not by as much as a lot of people are seeing. Nate sort of just is who he is. He's a crazy guy who's going to come out and do his best to turn things into a bar fight. He's hyper aggressive and he has really good cardio. He's decent enough all around that he can do a little bit of everything and mix it up well. He doesn't have great power, but he lands so often that he gets a lot of finishes based on accumulated damage. I think the real edge for him here would be on the ground if he decided to go for it. If they're just standing and trading in the pocket, I think Lingo is ok there. He's got more power than Nate and Landwehr's durability is fading on him. Nate pretty much gets hurt or wobbled in every fight he's in these days. He pushes through it well, but Lingo has the pop to put him out. As the fight progresses, Nate should be in a better spot as he's able to put it on Lingo, but he'll have to weather the storm early. I prefer Nate, but the first round will probably be a bit hairy. I don't think Lingo has the cardio to keep up with Landwehr for a full 15 though.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -124
With the pace and aggression Landwehr brings, I think you have to go with the under here. He's going to bring the fight and he'll probably get clipped early. If he survives it, he probably puts it on Lingo and finds a finish of his own. He could probably submit Lingo if he pursues the grappling aggressively, but I'm not convinced he does. He probably will look to trade on the feet, In that case, Lingo could knock him out or the constant onslaught from Landwehr eventually melts Lingo for a finish of his own.
Holly Holm defeats Yana Santos Result: Holm by decision (6-3)
I'm not sure why this fight is the co-main and I'm not sure why Holly just got a 6 fight deal, but sure, let's go with it. This fight probably will be pretty boring to be honest, but I think Holly is ok for the most part. She's already on the wrong side of 40, so she could just go over the cliff at any moment, but assuming that isn't the case, she should be able to do what she wants. Yana is going to want to clinch Holly, but Holm is just better there in my estimation. She's just bigger and stronger, so I think Holly puts Yana's back on the cage and holds her there for long stretches. Holly is still a technical kick boxer, but as she's aged, she isn't really the same. Not that she ever had crazy power, but that's tailed off as has some of the output. I just don't really see a path for Santos to be honest. She is coming off of a year and a half layoff after having a child. She didn't look all that great before she left to begin with. I guess Yana could beat her on volume striking? But that seems unlikely. Unless she's able to get takedowns and ride out rounds on top, I don't know what her path is and even that seems hard to imagine.
Bets to consider: Holm by decsision -110
Holly being such a large favorite, but only having her decision line at -110 is a bit strange. I know she's known for finishing Ronda, but any finishing ability she even had faded away several years ago at this point. Santos winning this fight would be pretty surprising, but seeing it end inside the distance would be even more surprising. Holly is sitting at -245 with the over 2.5 at -310, but her decision line is just over 50%. That just seems a bit off to me. By comparison, in a fight that is lined much closer than this one, Chidi Njokuani is lined +120 by KO, but Holm by decision is only 30 cents different in a fight where she's a significantly larger favorite that everyone agrees is going the distance?
Cory Sandhagen defeats Marlon Vera Result: Sandhagen by decision (7-3)
It's well known that I'm the biggest Cory Sandhagen stan you'll find and I've picked against Chito like 5 times in a row now, so keep that in mind. To keep this one short, I think this is just a poor matchup for Chito in a lot of ways, at least in regards to fighters who are going to stand with him. My biggest problem with Chito's game is that he has been so reliant on big moments without a consistent formula. There's only so many times you can left high kick somebody, front kick them in the chin, or push kick them in the nose. It's not that it is impossible for that to happen here as Cory isn't the best defensive fighter we've ever seen or anything, but those just aren't reliable techniques to land consistently. If he's not landing those, then it becomes extremely difficult for him to win fights. Chito doesn't have poor output, but he doesn't throw good volume either. He also doesn't have great defense, but he's extremely tough. Chito doesn't really wrestle much offensively and when he gets taken down, he fights off of his back. Now, I don't expect Cory to be looking for takedowns here, but if he does, he probably controls Chito for the rest of the round. On the feet, I think Cory is more technical with more tools. We know he is going to outland Chito in terms of total strikes, but it's a matter of if the numbers can out do the damage Chito does with his power. Cory has historically been very durable, so I don't expect him to go down as often as some of Chito's last few opponents have. We know Cory has the cardio to fight very tough opponents for a full 25 as well. He went 25 minutes with Dillashaw while being on the back foot the whole time. Add in the fact that I think Cory doing real damage to Chito is as likely as Chito doing the same to Cory and I just have to be on the Sandhagen side here.
Bets to consider: Sandhagen ML -148
I just think Cory needs to be farther out towards -200. The one thing we know for certain is that Cory is going to throw and land more volume. It all comes down to how you think the big damaging strikes play out. While Chito has a history of landing them, so does Sandhagen. It won't be easy for Chito to land those big kicks since Cory has the length and height advantage in this one. We also aren't going to see Sandhagen just standing in front of Chito and trading with him. He's going to move well on the outside. Sandhagen does a really good job of using his length and movement. While Chito is going to bring the pressure, I don't think he's going to give Chito what he wants. I think a big factor could be if either side decides to grapple. Chito has a history of just wanting to fight off of his back from guard when he gets taken down. Sandhagen hasn't historically stopped takedowns that well either. Mixing in some takedowns could be the key for either side in this one. I just think having Cory down at -150 despite some very clear advantages is a bit off.
Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are down below.
Official Bets
Victor Altamirano ML 1.04 units at -104 to win 1 unit
Trevin Giles ML .75 units at -108 to win .69 units
Steven Peterson Finish Only 1.64 units at -164 to win 1 unit
Andrea Lee ML .5 units at +220 to win 1.10 units
Landwehr/Lingo U2.5 rounds .75 units at -124 to win .60 units
Holly Holm by decision 1.5 units at -110 to win 1.36 units
Cory Sandhagen ML 1.5 units at -148 to win 1.01 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 4.18 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 7.22 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 3.04 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 7 - 3
Previous Year to Date Record: 74 - 36 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 81 - 39 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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