The last two weeks have been tough sledding after a positive month of March, so we'll look to get back on track before we get into May. This isn't the greatest card in the world, but like always, there are some spots to make some plays. This has been a real slog in the UFC schedule, but as we get closer to the summer, it should start to pick up, at least a little. While the UFC has taken a down swing in the last handful of cards, the rest of combat sports has picked up the slack, so at least there's that. I'm not the guy to complain about cards often, but putting all of these consecutively has been a bit rough. Anyways, let's get into this one. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Hailey Cowan defeats Jamey-Lyn Horth Result: Horth by decision (0-1)
This fight isn't great. Horth is extremely inexperienced. While I don't think she's the worst fighter who's ever lived or anything like that, I'm really not all that high on her. It's really hard to even get a grasp on her skills because most of her competition is at an extremely love level. Normally I would have some more to say, but she just really doesn't have a ton to show for right now. It wouldn't surprise me if she were able to compete her skill wise, but it also wouldn't surprise me if she were just in over her head. The reason I'm not more definitive here is because I don't think Cowan is anything special either. She's another one of those fighters who is moderately well rounded, just at a low level. The reason I prefer her is that she is slightly more experienced and should have physical advantages. She's going to be larger and will have athletic advantages in quickness and power. We've seen physicality advantages make up larger skill gaps in women's MMA before, so I think that may be what we see here.
Bets to consider: Cowan ML +128
I can't say I'm dying to play Hailey Cowan here, but I just don't really understand how you get to Horth -150. I'm just really not sure what skill she even has that give people the impression that she has a clear edge in this fight. I don't particularly want to play Cowan, but this is just sort of too far for me. I think lining this around -110/-110 is probably where it should be, or at least close to it. +130 for Cowan just seems wide.
Journey Newson defeats Marcus McGhee Result: McGhee by submission (0-2)
This is another fight that I can't say I'm particularly excited for, but here we are. Mcghee seems like he could be a decent fighter, but I don't think this is the spot. He's not old, but he's certainly not a young guy either. Combine that with his relative inexperience and weak strength of schedule and I don't think that's a great sign. He's looked fine against who he's fought, but that's really not a whole lot. I don't think Mcghee has great defense standing and I suspect he isn't much of a grappler either. Now, it's not like Newson is a future champion, but I think he should be fine. For his relative level, he's well rounded and he has real experience against real competition. Newson is low output on the feet, but he's not really a poor striker necessarily. He is a competent grappler as well and I think he could probably have a lot of success there in this one.
Bets to consider: Newson ML -184
Again, I don't really love this spot, but it's fine. Newson isn't outstanding, but he really should be ok. Mcghee may be a decent fighter, but his level of competition leaves a lot of question marks. He's so inexperienced in terms of overall fights as well. Him taking this fight on a few days notice definitely isn't going to help matters. If Mcghee keeps taking on money and the line continues to come in, I could get involved on Newson.
Stephanie Egger defeats Irina Alekseeva Result: Alekseeva by submission (0-3)
For the third fight in a row, we're getting someone coming in with extremely limited experience. Alekseeva doesn't really strike me as being anything all that special. She's only 4-1 in her career and the level of competition is pretty thin. She comes from a judo background but her grappling really isn't anything that I'm overly impressed by in terms of true UFC level skills. Egger may be a limited fighter in her own right, but in much the same way Alekseeva is. She will also be looking to initiate the grappling, but I just think she's better. I think her grappling is better and she's fought better competition. She is also likely to be the larger and more physical fighter. I think Egger is in a pretty good spot.
Bets to consider: Egger by submission +210
I generally think that Egger is the better fighter in almost all aspects of this fight. I suspect that she will be able to get the fight to the ground and be in dominant positions. I'm not convinced that Alekseeva is really all that great of a grappler and if Egger is spending extended minutes on top, she's probably going to find a submission. This number isn't anything special, but it's certainly better than laying the -300. Probably a pass spot though.
Charles Johnson defeats Cody Durden Result: Durden by decision (0-4)
I like Charles Johnson more than most and it has hurt me in the past, but I'm going back to the well here. The issue with Johnson is that I think his game is actually less than the sum of his parts. I don't think he has any huge weaknesses. He's a good defensive grappler, a good striker with good cardio. The hole in his game is that he is really content to let his opponent dictate the pace and style of the fight. If Johnson fought with more of a purpose and worked harder to keep the fight where his advantages could shine, he would likely have a few more wins. He just isn't willing to push the pace often enough for whatever reason. Durden is probably going to have some success early on, but I don't think he can maintain it. Johnson didn't let Mokaev really dominate him in the grappling, he just couldn't create space. However, Johnson was able to consistently work back to his feet. I think Mokaev is a better grappler than Durden, so I don't see him just holding Johnson down for long stretches. If Johnson forces Durden to attempt a bunch of takedowns, I think Durden probably slows pretty badly. It's just a matter of if Johnson actually puts it on him after he's tired. I'm going with Johnson, but it should be a competitive fight.
Bets to consider: Fight goes the distance -180
The number isn't great, but this fight probably goes to decision a vast, vast majority of the time. The paths to a finish here are pretty slim. Durden submitting Johnson seems very unlikely given that Mokaev couldn't get close. Durden has power, but Johnson has never had a durability problem. A knockout for Johnson isn't likely even with Durden's questionable chin because Johnson doesn't have much power and I don't think he's going to turn up the volume enough to just melt Durden late. If the number comes down a little, then I'll jump on it.
Jake Collier defeats Martin Buday Result: Buday by decision (0-5)
Kind of a weird fight, but I'm going with Collier. It's not that I think he's an outstanding fighter, but Collier presents some unique issues at the weight. Last fight aside, he has pretty good cardio and elite output for heavyweight. His striking is just ok, but his volume makes up for whatever deficiencies his has technically. His grappling is fine as well. It's not special, but it's solid. Buday isn't a bad fighter in his own right, but his path is a bit more narrow. He does well in the clinch, but beyond that, he's just sort of meh. He has ok power, but he lacks in technical striking and his defense standing is porous at best. His actual grappling isn't that great either and he doesn't get a lot of takedowns. He really just relies on controlling fights in the clinch and while it's possible he could do that here, I don't think it's likely. When the fight is at space, Collier is going to throw volume and he's going to land on Buday. With how the judging has been going lately, I'm liking Collier here.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -134
This is another fight where I just struggle to see a finish. Collier did gas badly last time, but he doesn't have a history of it. Even if he did tire late, Buday just doesn't really fight in a way that lends itself to consistent finishes. Collier doesn't really have true heavyweight power and even though Buday does take a lot of damage, he hasn't really shown durability issues to this point. Either way, this fight should go over pretty consistently.
Josh Quinlan defeats Trey Waters Result: Waters by decision (0-6)
I'm not particularly high on Quinlan in the long run, but I think this spot is fine for him. Waters is just a bit limited in my opinion. If given the perfect fight, he's reasonably dangerous, but outside of that, he's just ok. He needs to be striking at range. If Quinlan gets on the inside, he probably clips him and knocks him out. Quinlan could also probably grapple him rather easily if he actually wanted to. I don't think Quinlan is anything special on the feet from a technical standpoint, but he very clearly has real power. Quinlan should shoot for takedowns and just wipe Waters out on the mat, but he probably chooses to stand and bang. In that case, Waters is live, but I still prefer Quinlan there.
Betting thoughts:
If Quinlan comes out wanting to grapple. He probably looks like a good bet at -180. The more likely scenario is that he chooses to slug it out with Waters. In that scenario, I don't want to be anywhere near a -180 ticket. With that said, I don't think I'm really looking to play a side here. I'm not a fan of playing O/U 1.5 rounds in general and the numbers here don't change that. This is a pass for me. Too much volatility for me to feel good about anything in this one.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima defeats Waldo Cortes-Acosta Result: de Lima by decision (1-6)
This is kind of a weird fight, but I think de Lima should be ok. I've obviously been a bit lower on Waldo than I should have been over his last few, but I think this may be a tough one for him. De Lima probably should grapple Acosta and if he chose to do so, he could probably just lay on top of him for 3 rounds if he wanted. I don't doubt that he could submit if he really tried to as well. On the feet, Waldo is a better striker and has pretty decent output for his size, but I think de Lima does some good things there as well. The low kicks should be a good weapon for him and I think he could potentially land some big counter shots as well. I don't really expect Acosta to just get off free volume here and if he doesn't, his striking advantage may be more limited. The ability to grapple and probably being able to just wipe Acosta out there has me on the de Lima side.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -142
This line kind of surprised me a little. Acosta has decent enough power, but de Lima doesn't really have a history of getting knocked out. de Lima could find a knockout himself, but he's low output. de Lima could submit him, but he's not a particularly active submission grappler. Seeing this lined at 1.5 rounds was surprising and not even getting that bad of a number seems like a solid spot to me. From a money line perspective, I think it's more or less accurate. De Lima is hard to get behind at a biggish favorite number, but he should be a pretty solid favorite here in my estimation.
Julian Erosa defeats Fernando Padilla Result: Padilla by KO (1-7)
This fight, like most Erosa fights, should be pretty fun. Erosa is actually a pretty good fighter, he's just extremely reckless. He's high output in everything he does. His striking and grappling are both decent, but his willingness to engage and force the fight is what makes him successful. His biggest draw back has been his durability and I think that probably has more to do with the sheer amount of damage he takes than any actual issues with his chin. I think Padilla is a lot of the same. His defense seems equally as porous. The power is there and he could certainly knock Erosa out, but if he doesn't, I think he'll just be behind. Erosa is probably the better grappler here as well. He's hard to trust, but Erosa is probably just better.
Bets to consider: Erosa ML -158
It's hard to ever really line Erosa as a heavy favorite since he can be clipped and knocked out so easily, but he is just the better fighter in this one. Padilla is much less experienced and this will be the toughest fight of his career. If he doesn't knock Erosa out, he probably just falls behind on output or potentially gets out grappled. This number has crept back up and isn't great anymore, but it's fine.
Rodolfo Viera defeats Cody Brundage Result: Viera by submission (2-7)
This is another strange fight. I'm really not a huge Brundage guy. He's not awful or anything, but he's just not the kind of fighter that I really enjoy backing. His striking isn't very good and he's low output. I don't think his power is that special either despite him flat lining Tresean Gore not too long ago. His wrestling is ok, but his cardio is so bad that I don't think he can actually push it for more than about a round. Viera isn't an amazing fighter either, but he actually is skilled in most areas. His BJJ is world class and he probably submits Brundage if he is able to get extended top time. His physicality is a major plus. His striking is actually better than I thought it would be and with Brundage's striking, I even expect him to have the advantage there. I'm not confident enough in Vieira due to his own cardio issues, but skill for skill, I think he's in a good spot here.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -108
another 1.5 round total and I'll take these overs every time with a decent number. Neither of these guys are high enough output for me to think a knockout is in play. Their striking just isn't there in general. I expect the pace to be pretty slow in this one, so even if Vieira does get on top, I don't think he's looking to force a finish. I may pull the trigger on this one.
Caio Borralho defeats Michal Oleksiejczuk Result: Borralho by submission (3-7)
This fight is probably going one of two ways. The first option is that Michal keeps this fight standing and is able to handle Borralho standing. Michal is the better striker from a technical standpoint and he has better output. The much more likely scenario is that Borralho comes out and lands takedowns. If that is the case, he'll dominate Michal. Michal's grappling has just been so poor over his career that it is hard to imagine him all of the sudden stopping the takedowns here. If Borralho is on top, he will advance position rather easily and then likely find the submission. This is about as bad a matchup for Michal as you can find.
Bets to consider: Borralho by submission +135
If Borralho is actually winning this fight, he's going to be in top position. If he's on top, he's going to get to dominant positions. If he's doing that, he's submitting Michal at an extremely high rate. If he's not getting a submission, then he was probably never the side to begin with. If he gets 8 minutes of back mount and doesn't get the sub, then I guess I'll have to live with it. The number isn't great, but it's better than I expected it to be.
Ricky Simon defeats Song Yadong Result: Yadong by KO (3-8)
This fight should be pretty interesting early, but then it's going to really turn in Simon's favor. Song is a pretty good striker and his power is for real. When he lands, it is likely to have an impact on Simon and I think an early knockout is very, very live. It's just if that doesn't happen in the first 7-10 minutes or so, Simon is really going to put it on Song late. Ricky has the grappling advantage and a huge cardio advantage. Song has slowed down late pretty consistently, so getting someone like Ricky Simon over 5 rounds isn't a great spot. Seeing Song get taken down and held down by Cory Sandhagen is a tough look given his grappling history compared to Simon's. I think we probably get a pretty competitive fight early and Simon hasn't bee the most durable guy in the world in his career, so the chance for a knockout is there. It's just once we reach the third round, Simon is pretty likely to just grind on Song. I don't trust Song's grappling to not get controlled early as well though. I think Simon gets a huge win in this one.
Bets to consider: Simon ML -120
I think this is just a bit short on the Simon side. I think the early rounds are pretty competitive. You have to factor in the Yadong finish as well, but even then, there's also a chance that Simon out grapples Song early. Once Song starts to slow, it will turn into one way traffic. I'm willing to put some money down on Simon at close to -110/-110.
That's it from me on this one. Thanks for reading and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Hailey Cowan ML .5 units at +138 to win .69 units
Journey Newson ML .75 units at -164 to win .46 units
Durden/Johnson FGTD 1 unit at -180 to win .56 units
de Lima/Cortes-Acosta O1.5 rounds 1 unit at -142 to win .70 units
Julian Erosa ML 1.25 units at -158 to win .79 units
Vieira/Brundage O1.5 rounds .75 units at -108 to win .69 units
Caio Borralho by submission .5 units at +135 to win .68 units
Ricky Simon ML 1.2 units at -120 to win 1 unit
Ricky Simon 4, 5, or decision .5 units at +160 to win .80 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 3.02 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 5.38 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 8.40 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 3 - 8
Previous Year to Date Record: 98 - 58 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 101 - 64 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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