We're back and after a third really bad week in a row, I need to turn it around fast. Both the picks and the bets are suffering, but we have a PPV card to hopefully turn that around. PPVs haven't always been my strongest showings, but we'll make this an exception. We have the return of Henry Cejudo and he's not really a guy that I've had a chance to talk about very often since I started this. I have a love hate with CCC like most people do. I have an incredible amount of respect for Henry and what he's accomplished in his career. He's really one of the best combat athletes we've ever seen and I feel he doesn't get enough recognition for it. However, Henry's gimmick really grinds my gears. The King of Cringe thing really gets on my nerves and is probably the main reason I don't really call myself a Henry fan. That and seeing him beat Dominick Cruz hurts a lot. Anyways, this isn't the best PPV card you'll ever see, but it is certainly better than next month. We have some decent action and I'm looking forward to it since it is the best card we've gotten in what feels like forever. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Claudio Ribeiro defeats Joseph Holmes Result: Ribeiro by KO (1-0)
This is a tough one. I'm really not a huge fan of either fighter's game as of the last we saw them. If I had to pick a side, it would be Ribeiro, but I don't feel good about it. Ribeiro is very raw and as things currently stand, he's more of an athlete than a developed mixed martial artist. His striking isn't necessarily bad, but it's nothing Holmes hasn't come across before. It's really the athletic traits for Ribeiro that provide all of his upside. He's very fast and has legitimate power in his hands. The downside for him is the grappling. We've seen him out grappled in the past by guys who really don't rate out as UFC level fighters, so it is definitely in the equation for Holmes to do that here. Holmes is a grappler at heart, but he's not a special one. His actual ground game is fine, but he's really not much of a wrestler. If he got on top, he could have success and find a finish, but I really question if he could get the takedown. Ribeiro can't really grapple in any capacity, but he may be able to fend off the takedowns based on pure athleticism and strength. If that is the case, he probably beats Holmes up pretty badly and likely finishes him. This fight probably ends up pretty ugly looking, especially if it extends. I guess give me Ribeiro.
Bets to consider: Holmes ML +150
I'm not exactly excited about the possibility of losing money on Joseph Holmes, but I've at least been considering it. I don't favor Holmes, but it's hard to make him a sizable underdog at the same time. Ribeiro's grappling is so poor that if Holmes can have success, he probably looks -500. That potential for huge favorite upside at least has to make you think about a play at +150. However, I think there's an equal chance that Ribeiro can just stuff the takedowns based on brute strength and then go to town standing. This is probably a good spot to just wait and see.
Phil Hawes defeats Ikram Aliskerov Result: Alikserov by KO (1-1)
This is kind of a weird fight because Hawes is such a difficult guy to predict. In general, I like a lot of what Hawes does. I think he's a decent striker with respectable power and volume. He's not an amazing striker by any means, but he's solid. He's also a sufficient enough grappler defensively and mixes in takedowns of his own if he needs to. The problem with his game is that his holes are so glaring that it cancels out a lot of what he does well. His gas tank has proven over time to just not be there. He's going to slow down over the back half of the fight pretty consistently against anyone who pushes any bit of pace. His other main flaw is that his durability just isn't there. He's been knocked out his fair share of times, including being starched by Roman Dolidze his last time out. Ikram really isn't the guy that I think will test that second point though. His striking really isn't anything special and his power really isn't anything crazy either. It's not poor necessarily, just sort of requisite for the division. It's his grappling that is going to win him the fight. I just don't think he's as high a level of grappler as some people are making him out to be. He's good there, but Hawes doesn't get taken down. Early, I expect Hawes to look very good. It's a matter of if Ikram can survive until Hawes slows. Once he does start to gas, the takedowns may start to come for Ikram. It's not a super passionate take, but I like Hawes in this one. I think he keeps it standing and wins pretty cleanly at range. He just has to stay conscious.
Bets to consider: Hawes ML +166, O1.5 rounds -128
I just don't really see how Hawes is all the way out at +166. I think the first half of this fight should be his without a ton of issues. I think Hawes will stop takedowns while he's fresh and he is obviously a better striker to me. It really comes down to when Hawes starts to fade. If he can hold up for most of 2 rounds, then he's fine. If Ikram forces it to happen sooner, he'll be in trouble. I think Hawes will cover +170 here pretty consistently though. The over 1.5 is interesting as well. I know Hawes gets knocked out his fair share, but is Ikram really the guy to capitalize on that? I expect a lot of grappling early, so that should keep the danger factor relatively low. I don't think this fight finishes quickly all that often.
Parker Porter defeats Braxton Smith Result: Porter by KO (2-1)
Another kind of weird fight, but this one should actually be kind of fun. Braxton Smith, for better or for worse, is going to bring the action. He's going to be aggressive and force the fight. That's probably his best trait. He's just going to go for it and see what happens. He has decent power and has gotten some knockouts, but he's done it against competition that I don't really think means a whole lot. That isn't to say he couldn't knock Porter out because he certainly could. However, if he doesn't do so within the first 3 minutes, his paths to victory are pretty slim. Porter is the much more well rounded fighter. He's a better grappler, probably a better striker, with better cardio, more experience, and has faced and beaten much better competition. The only thing is that he's on the older side coming off of a pretty bad knockout not too long ago. If Porter's chin is gone, he can certainly be knocked out here. As long as he stays alive for a round, he will probably take over this fight. I have to assume he can do that here.
Bets to consider: Porter ML -166
This sort of feels like a trap. I think Porter has to be the side though. He's likely equal or better in virtually every aspect of MMA. If he doesn't get knocked out in the first few minutes, he wins this fight at a very high rate. It's just given Smith's style, an early knockout is very much in play. Porter has a lot of things working against him in terms of age and recent signs of durability. It's definitely a risk, but Porter really should be fine.
Marina Rodriguez defeats Virna Jandiroba Result: Jandiroba by decision (2-2)
I'm definitely a Marina fan, so take this with a grain of salt, but I like this spot for her. We know the story with her by now. She's a really good striker who has struggled against grapplers. Virna is a grappler and while she's a decent one, I'm not sure that she has the game to actually get to it. I just don't really know what path she uses to consistently close the distance without getting beaten up badly. If she can get on the inside and work for takedowns, she probably can get them. If she is on top, she probably controls the rest of the round. However, on the outside, Marina is going to be in complete control. I don't think Virna has the technical ability or the athleticism to get on the inside without taking a ton of damage. Marina moves better on the outside and I think keeps her at range. Virna's striking leaves a lot to be desired both offensively and defensively. She's either going to get the takedowns and win or not get them and lose. I don't think she gets them here.
Bets to consider: Rodriguez ML -130
I think my simplified breakdown really presents the fight as it is. It really is that simple. One added layer is that Marina has much better cardio. Even if Virna can win a round early, she is likely to fade over the second half of the fight. I think Rodriguez can stay standing long enough to do real damage. She's on a different planet striking and I think her footwork keeps her safe at range. I'll be on Marina. I think this is a pretty good buy low spot.
Khaos Williams defeats Rolando Bedoya Result: Williams by decision (3-2)
I don't know why this fight exists, but here we are. In short, Khaos should knock him out. I don't think Williams is going to win a championship any time soon, but he seems to be multiple levels above Bedoya to me. Bedoya isn't the worst fighter I've ever seen, but he seems like a regional level fighter to me. He's aggressive and he has power. He has some ability to grapple as well I suppose. Williams is just better. He's probably a better technical striker with better power. He has had real success against legitimate competition as well. If they stand, Bedoya just doesn't have the defense. In that case, he's going to get knocked out. I guess Bedoya could wrestle his way to success, but I don't really think he's that great of a wrestler. Even if he did have that early success, I don't buy that he has the gas to fight that game plan for a full 15. Williams should be fine.
Bets to consider: Williams by KO -120
As strange as this sounds, I guess this is how I would play it. I can't in good faith recommend that anyone play this number, but it's probably the best line you're getting. I can't really bet Bedoya at almost any number and Williams over -300 isn't it either. This is just a pass spot.
Kennedy Nzechukwu defeats Devin Clark Result: Nzechukwu by submission (4-2)
This is kind of an interesting clash of styles. Kennedy is an odd fighter. He's more skilled than I have probably given him credit for in the past, but he does have some holes. He's massive and, while his striking is a bit clunky, he's effective with it. He has good power and he has pretty good output while he's fresh. He's improving as a grappler as well. At his size, I'm not sold that his cardio is outstanding, especially if he's the one on the back foot. Kennedy has had some problems with aggressive grapplers in the past and that is what Clark is going to bring. He's not the most amazing fighter that you'll ever see, but he is pretty reliable. He has decent physicality, he's a solid grappler, and his cardio is solid, but unspectacular. I feel pretty good about Clark getting takedowns while he's fresh, but once both guys start breathing heavy, this one could get messy. If Kennedy can keep it standing, his volume, technical striking, and power is all better than Clark. I think he probably does some real damage in the second half of the fight and maybe even finds a finish.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -124
I've seen a lot of split action on this fight. With Kennedy sitting around -180, I think that is more or less correct. I think you have to make him a favorite because he is clearly better at range and he has a lot of the athletic advantages as well. When he was out at -200, I definitely get people jumping on Clark as the grappling path will certainly be there. At his current price of +144, I'm not too tempted by it. I guess I would rather still bet Clark than Kennedy as it currently stands, but that's a pass for me. I think the over is a bit better. Clark is a pretty tough guy and isn't someone who is getting knocked out by jabs or anything. Kennedy could knock him out, but I think it will be late if it happens. If Clark is having success, it's going to be from grappling. He's not a particularly dangerous grappler though, so I think a finish on top from Clark is unlikely. It's not a strong opinion, but just something if you're looking for action on this fight.
Drew Dober defeats Matt Frevola Result: Frevola by KO (4-3)
This is when the card really starts to feel important. Dober vs Frevola was made to be in front of fans. Dober is a guy who is going to be in exciting fights with the right opponent. He doesn't have much defense, but he's willing to stand in the pocket and trade. He's been pretty durable throughout his career and while that may be fading a bit on him, I think he's still fine for now. He's got pretty decent power as well. His grappling defense has been pretty bad and he gets taken down far too easily. He is generally able to get up, but the takedown defense has been a problem area for him. If he was dead set on winning, Frevola would try to get takedowns. He's a much better wrestler and he would likely get them if he tried. I'm not sure he would just ride Dober out on top, but he has the wrestling and cardio to land multiple takedowns if he wanted to. The problem is that he probably doesn't want to. Matt is a guy who also prefers to stand and brawl. He can certainly win a fight like that, but I don't prefer him there. His power is fine, but his defense lacks. The difference between the two is that Frevola has very little chin left. He's been put out badly multiple times before and I kind of think that is what we're going to see here.
Bets to consider: U1.5 rounds +104
I hate betting O/U 1.5 rounds, but this really feels destined to go under. If they're going to stand in the center and just bang it out until someone falls, this won't last long. Frevola has the power to hurt Drew in that kind of fight and it wouldn't be completely shocking to see him win that kind of fight. The much more likely outcome is that Dober cracks him and puts him out cold. Either way, I don't really think Frevola is going to come out desperately looking for takedowns. He either has to get the quick knockout or he's going out himself not too long after.
Charles Jourdain defats Kron Gracie Result: Jourdain by decision (5-3)
I know I say this every week, but I would have loved to see what conversations took place to allow this fight to be made. We're approaching 4 years since the last time we've seen Kron Gracie and I couldn't even begin to predict how he looks here. We know his jiu-jitsu is very good, obviously, but outside of that, it's anyone's best guess. He's going to be behind in the striking. He's never really been that good of a wrestler either. He could be significantly improved as a wrestler and/or a striker, but there's no way of knowing. Jourdain is, by and large, better at MMA. The one issue is that Jourdain has a really bad habit of giving his back when he gets taken down. If he gets his back taken by Kron, he's either getting submitted or held there until the end of the round. Jourdain really should be able to stay standing. He has all of the skills necessary. He has the movement and the cardio to stay at it. He should just land jabs and low kicks for 15 minutes. The issue there is that Jourdain just isn't that guy. He's going to want to throw spinning kicks and jump knees. He's going to give Kron the chance to get him down. I just couldn't pick Kron here out of principle, but it wouldn't completely shock me if he won either.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -128
Everyone expects this fight to finish and I sort of get it, but having it at 1.5 rounds is a bit strange to me. Jourdain does have the problem with giving his back, but he doesn't have a history of being submitted all the time. Kron is a very good BJJ practitioner, but I don't think his wrestling is good enough that he's for sure going to get an early takedown. At the same time, I don't think it's a given that Jourdain finishes early either. Kron doesn't have durability problems, at least from the last we saw of him. I don't think getting to the 7.5 minute mark is close to a 50/50 proposition.
Movsar Evloev defeats Diego Lopes Result: Evloev by decision (6-3)
Lopes is stepping in on short notice into a very tough situation. I don't think he's an awful fighter or anything like that, but giving Evloev problems is a much tougher task. I think Mosvar is probably just a better fighter everywhere. He's the better range based striker with better volume. He's a better wrestler. Lopes has some submission ability, but I kind of doubt he's at the level where he is submitting Evloev from bottom. I don't expect Lopes to be getting takedowns of his own. Even if he could get one or two early, I doubt his cardio is in a place where he could keep that kind of pace for an entire fight. Movsar should be fine.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -112
I would take a shot on the under if anything. Movsar isn't the most dynamic finisher or anything, but I think the short notice nature puts Lopes in a bind. I guess Movsar could just jab and low kick him for 15 minutes and make this look like a stupid play, but that has never really been his game. He wants to look for the takedowns and mix them in. If he gets on top, I think he probably beats Lopes up pretty badly. Lopes can be aggressive enough from guard while he has energy, but once he starts to tire, Movsar may be able to really tee off on him. Not sure I'll do it, but the under is the only thing that even remotely catches my eye.
Jessica Andrade defeats Yan Xiaonan Result: Xiaonan by KO (6-4)
This is an actual good fight. I do prefer Andrade, but it's not by a ton. In terms of technical skills, I don't think the gap between the two is wide. Yan is the better technical kick boxer and it really isn't that close. She could really do some damage on the counters if Andrade is blindly coming forward like she typically does. Yan isn't necessarily a bad grappler, but she's not a great one either. Andrade is the exact opposite standing. She isn't technical at all, but she is going to create chaos. She is going to come forward and throw power shots. She also isn't a fantastic grappler in her own right. The glaring difference is that Andrade is one of the most physical women we've seen in MMA history and Xiaonan offers next to 0 physicality. Andrade is powerful and strong. She is going to get the fight into the pocket and either trade shots or fall into the clinch. She should be able to get Yan down from there. I just think the size and strength of Andrade is what gives her a very slight edge.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +134
I think the style dynamics of this fight lend to a potential finish. Andrade is going to come forward and she's going to do so pretty recklessly. Her defense really isn't there. Whether she's having success or not, she's going to force the action. If she is having success, she's going to be hitting Yan with some big shots or going to have extended minutes on top of her. If she's not, Andrade is going to be eating some slick counter shots. Either way, I think getting the under at +130 is an interesting look.
Belal Muhammad defeats Gilbert Burns Result: Muhammad by decision (7-4)
This is a very interesting fight to me. Belal is a very well rounded fighter. He's a decent striker and grappler from both an offensive and defensive perspective. He's very strong and has good cardio to go with it. The biggest negatives to his game are that he lacks a danger component to his game. He isn't much of a submission artist and his power isn't really there. He's just a really tough guy to beat if his opponent has a noticeable weakness. Burns is a guy who has a very unique skillset as well. He's really fast, powerful, and athletic. He also has some of the best BJJ in the sport. The problem with Burns game is that I don't trust his cardio and he's not the most durable guy ever. It's more the cardio that concerns me in this matchup. He's kind of damned if he does and damned if he doesn't in my opinion. Top position is where he would have the most success. However, Belal stops takedowns well. That means Gilbert is going have to expend a lot of energy to get him down and may gas himself out. If he choses to stand, it probably ends up being a really close fight. Gilbert has the power and speed edge, but Belal will have the volume edge, especially as the fight progresses. We've also seen Gilbert struggle with guys who fight behind their jab in the past. Gilbert fighting on another quick turnaround also gives me a bit of a pause. It's only a lean, but I just think Belal pulls out a win.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 5 -140
I really don't see a reason that this fight shouldn't extend. I guess Burns could just nuke Belal early, but we haven't seen Belal getting knocked out consistently. I guess he could also submit him early, but Belal stops takedowns well and even if he does go down, Belal is no slouch on the ground either. Even if Belal starts to take over in the 3rd and 4th, he's not much of a finisher. He's certainly not going to submit Gilbert and he doesn't really have knockout power either. This seems like a pretty safe bet to go long in my opinion.
Aljamain Sterling defeats Henry Cejudo Result: Sterling by decision (8-4)
This isn't a fight that I was especially excited for when it was first announced. As we've gotten closer, I've gotten really into this fight and am legitimately excited for it now. My conclusions also aren't exactly what I expected either. In general, I think Aljo should be ok in this fight. I simultaneously believe he holds most of the advantages, but I also expect this fight to be mostly competitive. I think Aljo is just at his best while Henry is on the wrong side of his prime. He's been away for 3 years now and I just don't really think he's the same guy anymore. The size difference is a big thing for me. Aljo is just going to be so much bigger and longer that I don't see many clear paths for Henry. Henry has never thrown much volume on the feet and with Aljo having a huge reach advantage, I don't see that changing. Aljo isn't an amazing striker, but he does put out volume. Both guys are primarily grapplers and I think it's kind of a wash. Henry is a better wrestler, but it's not night and day differences. Aljo is the more well rounded grappler once the fight hits the mat. Aljo is going to have a significant strength advantage and I think that could allow him to control the clinch. I don't really see either guy having a ton of grappling success. The one spot that Henry does have a clear advantage is in the cardio department. Aljo has slowed down late in fights before, but I don't really think Henry is going to push the pace necessary to force the gas issue for Sterling. I'm sort of just left to think that Aljo wins a moderately competitive decision more often than not.
Bets to consider: Sterling ML -102, FGTD -134
I just think Aljo needs to be a favorite here. He has most of the advantages. Seeing him be a small dog just doesn't really add up to me. I think he needs to be in the -150 range. The fight going the distance seems very likely to me as well. Henry really isn't a finisher, especially at his current age. Aljo has some submissions, but that seems to be nullified by Henry being a better wrestler. I'll be on both of these.
That's it from me on this one. Thanks for reading and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Phil Hawes ML 1 unit at +166 to win 1.66 units
Hawes/Aliskerov O1.5 rounds 1.28 units at -128 to win 1 unit
Marin Rodriguez ML 1.30 units at -130 to win 1 unit
Dober/Frevola U1.5 rounds .75 units at +104 to win .78 units
Jourdain/Gracie O1.5 rounds 1.28 units at -128 to win 1 unit
Andrade/Xioanan U2.5 rounds .5 units at +134 to win .67 units
Muhammad/Burns Fight Starts Round 5 1.5 units at -140 to win 1.07 units
Sterling/Cejudo FGTD 1.5 units at -134 to win 1.12 units
Aljamain Sterling ML 1.5 units at -102 to win 1.47 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: +2.53 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 8.40 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 5.87 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 101 - 64 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 109 - 68 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
Comments
Post a Comment