We’ve made it to UFC 289 and while PPVs are usually much needed after a long stretch of Fight Nights, this is probably the worst PPV of the year for the UFC. This card is shallow in terms of both quantity and quality. Beneil Dariush vs Charles Oliveira is good enough to justify its existence, but beyond that this just looks like a slightly beefed up Fight Night. I mentioned it last week, but I’ve been on vacation all week and haven’t had the time or means to put as much time into this as normal. I’ll be making picks for continuity purposes, but there won’t be any bets this week. I’m still not in a state that has legal sports books like Pennsylvania does even though I’m currently on my way back. I’m also typing this on my phone, so if the formatting is all over the place then that’s why. I’m going to make a pick for each fight and maybe throw in a sentence or two as to why, but it won’t be my normal breakdown. I’ll adjust the formatting to look more like normal whenever I’m in front of my laptop. Let’s go.
Diana Belbita defeats Maria Oliveira Result: Belbita by decision (1-0)
This is pretty low level stuff. This fight is likely all striking. I think Belbita probably has a little more power and a slightly better gas tank that should allow for a little better output. Belbita is probably the better grappler too, but not confident she tries to use it.
David Dvorak defeats Steve Erceg Result: Erceg by decision (1-1)
I haven’t had time to really dig too deep into Erceg, but I don’t really see anything that should give Dvorak any significant issues. Dvorak should be better everywhere on a technical level. His striking is low volume, which is an issue for him in general, but the technical gap in this fight should allow him to touch Erceg without taking too much damage and counter pretty cleanly.
Blake Bilder defeats Kyle Nelson Result: Nelson by decision (1-2)
I don’t trust Bilder in the long run, but I think he’s ok here. His striking defense is poor and against someone with the kind of power that Nelson has, he may certainly get himself knocked out. The problem is Nelson only has a round of cardio before he is basically unable to do anything. Bilder should be able to push a hard enough grappling pace early to stay safe and the break Nelson down over the final two rounds.
Aoriqileng defeats Aiemann Zahabi Result: Zahabi by KO (1-3)
Weird fight, but prefer the power and aggression of Aoriqileng. This fight should stay standing and Aoriqileng is going to throw with significantly more volume and also has the better power. Zahabi is the more technical fighter, but he is so low output. He will probably land counters, but without big power to sway rounds, he probably just ends up getting out done on the numbers. I don’t really trust Aoriqileng’s cardio, but he is going to be controlling the pace in this one, so I think he’s fine.
Miranda Maverick defeats Jasmine Jasudavicius Result: Jasudavicius by decision (1-4)
I think I’ve been a bit higher on Jasudavicius than most in the betting community, but I don’t think this is the spot for her. She’s a pretty solid grappler, but her wrestling really lacks and we saw that last time out. Maverick is a significantly better wrestler and I think it will show. Jasudavicius will likely be behind in the striking both in terms of technical skill and volume. Feel fairly confident in maverick in this one.
Nassourdine Imavov defeats Chris Curtis Result: No contest
I don’t like this matchup for Curtis. He struggles against opponents who won’t just stand in front of him and Imavov isn’t likely to do that. Curtis won’t be able to get off his normally solid volume because Imavov just won’t be there to be hit. The only real concern is that Imavov doesn’t have trustworthy cardio, but I expect him to largely be controlling the pace in this one. He could probably grapple successfully in this one, but I’m not sure that I expect him to really try it. Curtis may come on late and make the fight feel closer than it really is, but I do think Nassourdine looks pretty good for as long as his cardio is holding up.
Marc-Andre Barriault defeats Eryk Anders Result: Barriault by decision (2-4)
I don’t have a great feel for this one, but guess I prefer Barriault. His best qualities are his cardio and output and I do think that gives him an edge. Anders has the power and wrestling to potentially slow the pace down, but I think a high wrestling pace from Anders could end up hurting his cardio down the stretch. I think this is probably a pretty competitive fight and just slightly prefer the output on the MAB side, but don’t feel good about it.
Dan Ige defeats Nate Landwehr Result: Ige by decision (3-4)
Kind of a weird fight, but I think I like Ige. Dan is the cleaner striker and I trust his durability a lot more. Nate is going to force the action and while he most certainly does have that dog in him, he does get hurt somewhat regularly. He has the cardio to push a high grappling pace if he wants to and I suspect he could have success there, but he’s just never really been the guy to come out and shoot takedown after takedown. He probably should, but I don’t think he will. He’s live on the feet and he will have better output, but he has the worse chin and his defense lacks. Ige is the cleaner striker and I think he has a better chance of hurting Nate. I lean his way.
Mike Malott defeats Adam Fugitt Result: Malott by submission (4-4)
I have questions about Malott in the long term, but as for this fight, I think he should be relatively ok. I suppose Fugitt could come out and grapple him hard and I wouldn’t be all the surprised, but at the same time, I kind of think Malott is able to have success standing. Fugitt is aggressive and that’s not nothing, but his defense suffers because of it. With the power of Malott coming back, I don’t think that’s a recipe for success. Kind of interested to just get more data on both of these guys though.
Beneil Dariush defeats Charles Oliveira Result: Oliveira by KO (4-5)
This really is the main event and it’s an awesome fight. We all sort of know the dynamic by now. Oliveira is the better grappler, but Beneil is the better pure wrestler. On the feet, it’s competitive, but Oliveira is probably a touch faster. It’s hard to imagine this not being back and forth most of the way. I just think there’s a couple of things that swing the fight in Beneil’s favor. If this is grappling heavy, Beneil is likely the one on top. Gamrot couldn’t taken him down, so I don’t think Charles can. I think Beneil is too good to get swept or submitted from guard despite Do Bronx having elite BJJ. On the feet, both guys have been cracked, hurt, and finished before, but I trust Beneil’s durability more. Oliveira gets hurt and goes to his back almost every fight. With Benny more likely to get the top time and more likely to find knockdowns standing, I think that can swing rounds in his favor. Charles could obviously finish this fight both standing or on the ground though. This is a great fight, but I have to make a pick, so I’ll go with Beneil.
Amanda Nunes defeats Irene Aldana Result: Nunes by decision (5-5)
We know Amanda is getting older and will be increasingly more vulnerable, but I don’t see the upset here. Aldana is a good striker and her volume will have a chance to put it on Nunes down the stretch, it’s just a matter of getting there. Aldana just absorbs way too many strikes for me to think she is going to be able actually survive until rounds 4 and 5 without being severely compromised. Aldana has pretty solid takedown defense as well, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Nunes take her down and have success there either. It’s not that the path doesn’t exist for Aldana, but it’s pretty narrow. We’ve seen her lose to an aging Holly Holm not too long ago and she was going to lose to Chaisson in her last fight if not for a freak up kick to the body TKO. Amanda should pick up another title defense.
That’s it for me on this one. It’s unfortunate that the compromised post had to come on a PPV week, but at least it’s this PPV. I’ll be back to regular posts next week. The next PPV will be the Saturday following my first week of my new graduate program, but I suspect that it will be mostly normal. I’ve ran this through school before, so it should be fine. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card.
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: 0 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 8.01 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 8.01 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 5 - 5
Previous Year to Date Record: 128 - 85 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 133 - 90 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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