The break came at a pretty good time for. I was starting to feel a little burnt out and have also been extremely busy. I had a wedding to go to last weekend, so I managed to not miss a card for it. I'm going on vacation starting Sunday, so I'm not sure how next week's post is going to look. I'll probably at least make the picks for continuity, but I don't believe I'll have any bets in. I don't think FanDuel is even set up in Florida and I'm not sure what time I'll be back in Pennsylvania to even get anything in. I don't think I'll have any super detailed breakdowns either. Maybe just a sentence or two for each fight. Anyways, we have to get through this very odd card first, but I don't hate it. The main event isn't anything crazy, but it should be a decent enough fight. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Maxim Grishin defeats Philipe Lins Result: Lins by decision (0-1)
We should be getting a fairly competitive fight to kick things off. Unfortunately, it's kind of a hard fight to have a really sizzling hot take on, at least for me. On one hand, it kind of feels like Grishin has a slight edge in most aspects. However, I still don't really feel super confident in him. Grishin is one of those fighters who isn't really good at any one thing, but he's not really bad anywhere either. Grishin is a competent enough grappler and an ok striker. He's a bit stiff athletically and it limits the danger aspect a bit, but that's about it in terms of negatives. Lins is sort of the opposite to a degree. He should have the physical advantages in this one. He'll be faster and probably stronger, but skill for skill, I think he ends up a little behind. I think we probably see mostly striking in this fight. It will come down to the speed for Lins and technical ability for Grishin most likely. I think Grishin probably has a slight cardio advantage as well, so I give him the overall edge in the fight, but not by a ton. It's probably a pretty competitive fight.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -164
This is kind of a hard fight to bet. The over is a bit juiced, but there may be some value to be had. I just don't really value either fighter's finishing ability. They have some finishes on their resume, but not against anyone especially impressive. Lins got finished by Boser where he sort of quit, which is concerning, but I don't really think Grishin is going to come after him the way Boser did. I think the line is starting to get a bit steep on the money line though. Grishin out at -140 is probably the high end of being ok, but definitely not playable. I think Grishin is closer to -130ish, but it is absurd yet. If it continues to grow, I think playing Lins is fine. I don't hate anyone jumping in on Lins now just due to the fact that Grishin isn't the kind of fighter who can really be a solid favorite often, but I don't really have any interest.
Luan Lacerda defeats Da'Mon Blackshear Result: Blackshear by KO (0-2)
I've gone back and forth on this fight, but as of this writing, I'm leaning Lacerda. This is actually a pretty interesting matchup and I'm having trouble pinning down exactly what I think the most likely outcome is. I do like aspects of Blackshear's game, but he hasn't really put it together yet. He's an ok wrestler offensively, but he's had trouble defensively. He hasn't stopped takedowns well and he has been too willing to accept the bottom position. On the feet, he's probably the more technical fighter. He doesn't have great output and his power sort of lacks too. I think I prefer Lacerda on the feet. He's not as technical and he really lacks defensively, but he is going to be throwing the more damaging strikes and he'll have the output advantage. Lacerda's grappling also leaves a lot to be desired. His ground game is fine, but his wrestling lacks. He is also very willing to accept the bottom position. It wouldn't surprise me to se Blackshear get a lot of top time here, but if it stays standing, I think I prefer Lacerda. It should be an interesting fight though.
Bets to consider: Blackshear ML +126
With all that said, I'm not sure how we get Blackshear at almost +130. I struggle to get much beyond -115 for either side. I'm not sure if I will pull the trigger or not, but getting the better technical striker and better offensive wrestler at dog money seems like the side you would want to be on. The general aggression of Lacerda combined with the lower output nature of Blackshear is the main drawback, but that could end up just getting Lacerda taken down. If it actually gets to +130, I'll probably make the play.
Jinh Yu Frey defeats Elise Reed Result: Reed by decision (0-3)
This fight probably ends up being pretty ugly. At this stage of their careers, it feels like both just sort of are who they are. It's the same thing with both of them every time they fight. Frey is a technical striker, but she really doesn't throw any volume. She absorbs too much damage and just doesn't engage enough to convincingly win minutes. Her grappling is ok at times, but she really never goes to it. We're now coming off of her getting viciously knocked out, so add that to the mix. Reed is a decent boxer with pretty solid power for the division. She can have output issues of her own at times, but that shouldn't be too much of an issue against Frey. The problem is that her grappling is probably some of the worst on the roster. She gets taken down far too easily and then really has nothing to offer from her back in terms of submissions or get ups. That kind of leaves us with a fight where Frey could probably take her down, but we've never really seen her aggressively pursue any grappling. If she doesn't then we'll get a low output kick boxing match where one side has a noticeable power edge and the opposite side was just knocked out cold. It's going to be messy, but I guess I'll go with the side that Frey does try to grapple some. If she goes to it, she really should top time Reed or even finish her.
Bets to consider: Frey ML +110
Betting Elise Reed at -135 in a professional MMA fight is probably asking for bad things to happen. While I want nothing to do with that number in terms of actually making a play, it's hard to passionately disagree with the line being about right. You really could only bet the fighter with the plus money next to their name and that's Frey in this case. The problem with Frey is that her finishing upside really isn't there. She doesn't have power on the feet and any finishing potential she has on the ground is as much about Reed's lack of ground game as it is with Frey's ability. When the grappling disparity is so significant, I have to at least consider a play, but there's no reason to touch this fight.
Daniel Santos defeats Johnny Munoz Result: Santos by decision (1-3)
This sort of feels like it should be a good spot for Santos. I don't dislike Munoz in the grand scheme of things, but his path seems a bit limited in this one. On the feet, he may be able to compete on a technical level, but the aggression and volume of Santos is going to make this one really tough on him. Santos doesn't have great defense himself, but I think his output will probably just overwhelm whatever Munoz is throwing back at him. The best shot for Munoz is to come up with a submission and it wouldn't surprise me if he were able to get one. The problem with that is that I don't really think Munoz can ground the fight consistently. Santos is a solid defensive grappler and even if Munoz gets him down early, I think Santos would be able to get up. I also don't think Munoz is a phenomenal wrestler and could see Santos just being able to stuff the takedown attempts. Santos should be ok in this one.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -166
This is a pretty big number, but it's still not the worst look in the world. It feels like this fight almost has to finish. Either Munoz can get on top and find the submission or he doesn't and eventually just gets melted on the feet. I find it hard to believe that Munoz would just be able to hold Santos down for long stretches and win on top time. I find it equally hard to imagine that this fight makes it to a decision on the feet. Santos is going to bring the pace and pressure. He could get caught on a counter, but if he doesn't, I think he just puts in on Munoz until he can get a finish. I don't know that I'll play it, but it's not horrible either.
Andrei Arlovski defeats DonTale Mayes Result: Mayes by KO (1-4)
This should probably be the standard Arlovski fight that we’ve seen time and time again in this latter part of his career. He is well past 40 now and he could come out and just be cooked, but assuming he’s not, Arlovski should be competitive for the most part. Outside of his age, the main concern for me is that his grappling has looked really bad whenever someone has tried to take him down in the recent past. Now, Mayes isn’t Curtis Blaydes, but he has been more interested in attempting takedowns recently and if he did, it feels like he could have some success. The question of if he has the cardio to aggressively grapple for 15 minutes lingers, but it’s not like Arlovski is a cardio machine either. On the feet, this fight probably ends up being pretty close. I would say Arlovski is the slightly better technical striker, but his upside is almost 0 at this stage of his career. He doesn’t really knock people out anymore and he doesn’t have the cardio to push enough of a pace to cleanly beat someone on numbers. Mayes is the bigger, longer, and more powerful fighter, so even with mediocre output, he should be in the fight standing. Arlovski has a way of winning narrow split decisions and I guess I’ll pick him here to do it again.
Bets to consider: Arlovski ML +114
In this spot, I could really only bet Arlovski, but the number isn’t all that tempting. I think what tempers my interest is that Arlovski has such limited upside in his game these days. A successful fight for him is almost always a competitive decision because he just doesn’t have the skill set to really pull away from anyone. His power has dropped off and he isn’t finishing fights anymore. He doesn’t have the output or cardio to really put it on guys and he doesn’t wrestle. Best case scenario for him is a low output kick boxing match where he’s able to steal the rounds late using his veteran savvy. I really don’t want to be Mayes though at favorite money. I don’t think Mayes is the worst fighter on the roster, but too many times have we seen him lose fights that he probably should have won. He could knock Arlovski out and probably should at least try to grapple him. However, I don’t trust him to even shoot a takedown and really don’t trust him in general at this stage. Probably a pretty safe pass spot unless this line takes a lot of late money one way or another.
John Castaneda defeats Muin Gafurov Result: Castaneda by decision (2-4)
We have kind of an interesting one up next as Gafurov is jumping in on short notice. From what I can tell, Gafurov seems more or less like a stereotypical grappler base skill set. He looks to be a pretty solid wrestler, but the rest of his games lacks refinement. On the feet, his striking is pretty rudimentary and relies more on his natural power than anything else. He throws hard, but he’s not technical at all and leaves himself very open to be countered. That is sort of what I think Castaneda will do. He’s a better striker and his straighter punches should get to the mark first. Gafurov could and probably will have at least some wrestling success early, but I don’t really suspect that he will be able to grind out long stretches on top of Castaneda. Castaneda is a decent enough grappler than I think he can stop some takedowns and get up whenever he does go down. I know we just saw him gas out badly, but I don’t suspect this fight happens at the same pace Castaneda’s last fight did. Especially given the short notice nature, I think it is much more likely that Castaneda has a cardio advantage and is able to have a lot more success late and potentially even finish Gafurov.
Bets to consider: Castaneda ML -136
I just don’t really think this line is right. Normally when we get a short notice replacement, the fighter on a full camp balloons out to -400, but the Gafurov side has taken a ton of money. I won’t say that I don’t get it at all because Gafurov can and likely will be able to have some grappling success and the visual of Castaneda gassing the way he did against Santos isn’t great. However, I just don’t think we see Gafurov able to push a pace like that and take damage that way on short notice. Maybe on a full camp I would be more understanding of Castaneda being -135, but with the current situation, I think the line should be at least in the -170 range, if not closer than -200.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos defeats Abubakar Nurmagomedov Result: Santos by decision (3-4)
This fight has a lot of parallels with the Arlovski fight from just a minute ago. Historically, I think I would like Santos in this spot. I would say he is the better striker and I think he’s faster. Nurmagomedov wants to wrestle and while I think he’s a pretty good one, we’ve never really seen someone just run over Santos in the grappling. I actually think Nurmagomedov’s striking is ok and I expect him to at least be somewhat competitive there, but I would prefer Santos. The problems with Santos are two fold. The first is that I have to imagine that he is deteriorating with his age. His game on the feet has especially relied on speed and big, explosive techniques, which is a lot harder to do when you’re older. On top of that, he was just popped for PEDs. It’s now hard to say what kind of athlete he even is without the juice. It is entirely possible that we just see the bottom fall out on Santos here. If he is largely the same fighter he was, I think he can be a decent enough grappler to keep the fight standing. When it’s standing, I think he’s the better striker with a speed advantage. I’ll pick Santos, but I don’t feel good about it at all.
Bets to consider: Santos ML -104
If this got into the plus numbers for Santos, I may pull the trigger. Betting this fight is similar to the Arlovski fight for me because while I do like Santos, all of the upside is on Nurmagomedov. Santos does have some ability to finish, but I don’t think it’s significant here. The best case scenario for Santos is a 15 minute kickboxing match and while I prefer him there, I think Nurmagomedov is competitive in the stand up. If it turns out that Santos looks old and over the hill without his secret juice, then Nurmagomedov could look -500 in this one. I think I just have to pass this fight because there’s so little solid ground to stand on in terms of anything in this fight.
Jamie Mullarkey defeats Muhammad Naimov Result: Naimov by KO (3-5)
In short, this should be a pretty good spot for Mullarkey. This is a bad matchup for Naimov under normal conditions, but the fact that he only jumped into this fight a few days ago is really putting himself behind the 8 ball. There really aren't a ton of good matchups for Naimov in general though. His style just makes it tough to have prolonged success. He's a striker by trade and I don't really think he's a special one, at least from a technical stand point. He's got some power, but it doesn't last because his cardio is just not there. Being on short notice up a weight class isn't going to help matters. His defensive wrestling is also pretty poor. Mullarkey really should just grapple him until he gasses out and then finish him. Even if they decided to stay standing, Mullarkey could probably out striker Naimov just based on pace alone. The one thing about this fight is just that Mullarkey has little in terms of striking defense. If Naimov connects while he's fresh, he could knock him out, but if he doesn't within the first few minutes, this fight is likely to see Mullarkey find a finish down the stretch.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -154
You can kind of go one of two ways with this fight. You can either play the under at -154 or Mullarkey ITD -150. The decision you have to make is if you want the extra 2.5 minutes that comes with Mullarkey ITD or if you want to include the option of an early Naimov KO with the under. In this case, I think the under is the move. I kind of just think that there is a greater likelihood of Naimov getting a knockout in the first 2 minutes than him actually lasting until late in the third. I don't really think that Naimov makes it out of the second round given his own cardio problem and the pace Mullarkey is going to bring.
Karine Silva defeats Ketlen Souza Result: Silva by submission (4-5)
This feels like it should be a pretty comfortable fight for Silva. Silva's game isn't perfect, but she's getting good results. Her ground game is pretty solid and she has very real power for her size, which isn't something you say very often for women's flyweight. It just sort of feels like she has Souza pretty much covered. We've seen Souza out grappled in the past by women who aren't as good as Silva. Her game seems kind of average at best and she hasn't looked all that impressive even against the very limited competition she's been facing. This is going to be the best opposition of her entire career by a noticeable amount. Silva really should be able to beat her wherever she wants, but I think their grappling skill sets are really far apart. If she gets a takedown, she probably submits her without too much of an issue.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -120
I'm not particularly sure why this line is where it's at. I get women's MMA isn't known for astronomical finishing rates, but the finishes we do get are in lower level fights like this one and Silva is a finisher. Souza has been very cleanly out grappled in the past and Silva is the best ground game she's ever faced. I suspect Silva finds a submission if this hits the mat. On the feet, Silva should be fine as well and her power is enough to find a knockout. Souza just kind of seems like more of a regional talent to me than a true UFC level fighter, so I think Silva probably finishes her a fair amount.
Tim Elliot defeats Victor Altamirano Results: Elliot by decision (5-5)
I think this is very likely a good fight for Tim Elliot. I have one major concern and I guess one and a half minor concerns. The biggest issue for Tim is just his age. He's starting to approach 40 now and age isn't the friend of any fighter, especially at these smaller weight classes. The minor one is that we've seen Elliot get submitted his fair share and Altamirano does have a competent enough submission game. I don't think it's a likely outcome, but it wouldn't completely shock me either. There's also the question mark about how Tim's personal life took a wild turn and how that may be in his head coming into the fight, but I don't really expect Tim to come out and do anything out of character here. Besides those things, I really expect Elliot to be just fine. Altamirano throws volume, but he doesn't have much power and unless Tim is really over the hill, he's never had a durability issue. Altamirano just doesn't stop takedowns very well and Tim is a pretty good wrestler. He's going to be able to get takedowns pretty much when he wants to and he can probably finish on top. Tim Elliot just isn't an easy guy to look good against and these are really the fights he has made a career of winning. This is a step down in competition for him and I expect him to look good here.
Bets to consider: Elliot ML -180
-180 isn't the best number ever, but I still kind of think there could be some value to be had. I just have a hard time believing that Tim Elliot loses this fight. I guess he could just be cooked, like I said about Arlovski earlier, but if he's not, then he should be safe. This is the toughest fight of Altamirano's career and a step down for Elliot. That usually adds up to the veteran fighter having success. The wrestling aspect of this fight is wide enough for me to think Elliot can get a lot of top time or probably even a finish from top.
Jim Miller defeats Jesse Butler Result: Miller by KO (6-5)
I don't know what you really want me to say. There's taking fights on short notice and then there's doing what Butler is doing. He jumped into this fight on Thursday afternoon and is coming up a weight class. He's pretty experienced for a guy making his UFC debut, but that doesn't really mean much when it is Jim Miller on the other side of the cage. Butler doesn't seem like he's the worst fighter of all time or anything based on the limited research I've been able to do on him, but this is just a tough spot. It seems like he's got some power and has his fair share of submissions, but he hasn't really fought anyone of extreme significance. At the same time, it's not like Miller is unbeatable. He's old, doesn't have great cardio, and has never stopped takedowns all that well. I just can't really imagine that Butler has the cardio to really push much of a pace here. If he's fighting low output, Miller's cardio will hold up better. This would also be the worst loss of Miller's career by a significant margin. I can't imagine he doesn't pick up another win here.
Betting thoughts:
You can't really bet this fight. Given what I just said, you can't play Miller at -240. There's also the possibility that he just goes off the cliff and his durability is shot at his age. His cardio also doesn't allow him to be a large favorite most of the time. At the same time, I can't play Butler because he's fighting the all time UFC wins leader when he took the fight for his UFC debut like 16 hours before weigh ins up a division. I don't have access to props, but even if I did, I just don't feel the need to lose money on this fight.
Alex Caceres defeats Daniel Pineda Result: Caceres by decision (7-5)
This is kind of a weird fight, but I do like Caceres. I'm just not really into the idea that Pineda is going to have a ton of success here. He could and maybe even will have some success grappling early, but I don't think that's a given. Even if h does, Pineda has a history of having poor cardio. While it looked a little better in his last fight, I'm not ready to say that Pineda has suddenly solved his cardio problem in his late 30s after an entire career of a poor gas tank. Once Pineda slows or if he can't get takedowns at all, Caceres really should be able to do whatever he wants on the feet. He's just a much better striker and will have better output. Even if Pineda can get those takedowns early, I don't really expect him to have prolonged success or massive amounts of top time. Caceres is a solid defensive grappler and I think he probably wins this fight late even if it looks competitive early. Caceres can probably finish if he pushes for it.
Bets to consider: Caceres ML -180
Alex Caceres at -180 does make me a bit uneasy, but I kind of having a feeling that he's going to look better than that. It just feels like a matchup that is probably going to play into what he wants to do. If Pineda doesn't submit him in the first round, Caceres probably wins the second and third at a very high rate, if he doesn't finish Pineda.
Kai Kara-France defeats Amir Albazi Result: Albazi by decision (7-6)
This is an interesting fight, but I do feel decent about Kai in this one. Albazi is clearly talented, especially as a grappler, but I'm just not sure this is the matchup for him. Albazi has a really slick ground game, especially while he has energy and it's the best attribute of his game. His striking isn't awful, but it's not really special either. He doesn't really have power of note and his output is just sort of meh. He's not doing anything out of the ordinary from a technical standpoint on the feet either. The question really becomes how often can he get this fight down and I'm not convinced he does it consistently. He's not a special wrestler and Kai has done pretty well at stopping takedowns and working back to his feet when he does go down. On the feet, Kai is clearly the better striker and has more power. He's probably faster as well. I think the cardio situation is more or less a wash as we've seen both guys slow down at times, but overall I think their cardio is fine. I'm sure Albazi could submit Kai if he got into a good position, but I'm not convinced he gets the fight down and if he does, I'm not sure he can solidify position. I like Kai in this one.
Bets to consider: Kara-France ML -102
Beyond what I already said, this line seems off to me because of the level of competition disparity between the two. Kai has been fighting really tough competition for awhile now. He has already fought Moreno twice, Brandon Royval, Askar Askarov, and others. He has legitimately earned a spot in the top 5 of the division. Albazi feels like he's kind of had a pretty smooth ride to his spot in the rankings. Kai is pretty easily the toughest fight of his career in my opinion and no one is a close second place. Albazi needs takedowns and I don't think his wrestling is anywhere near Askarov's and he had trouble getting Kai down and solidifying position. It's not that I think Kai is miles better, but I think he needs to be lined more of a solid to moderate level favorite rather than a small dog.
That's it from me on this one. It feels good to be back. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Maxim Grishin ML .75 units at -122 to win .61 units
DaMon Blackshear ML .5 units at +132 to win .66 units
John Castaneda ML 1.5 units at -124 to win 1.21 units
Mullarkey/Naimov U2.5 rounds 1.54 units at -154 to win 1 unit
Karine Silva ITD 1 unit at +110 to win 1.1 units
Tim Elliot ML 1 unit at -180 to win .56 units
Alex Caceres 1 unit at -180 to win .56 units
Kai Kara-France ML 2.04 units at -102 to win 2 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 2.29 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 10.30 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 8.01 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 7 - 6
Previous Year to Date Record: 121 - 79 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 128 - 85 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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