We had a weird week last week. Ultimately, we ended up breaking even, so I can't really complain about it too much, but it was a bit of an unfortunate ending. We're back this week with international fight week and also my first week of my grad program. It has certainly been kicking my ass so far, but I should be able to get this in. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Kamuela Kirk defeats Esteban Ribovics Result:
A bit of a weird one to kick off the night. This is an interesting matchup because both men are similar in a lot of ways. Both guys have above average power, poor standing defense, and below average cardio. Standing, I think Kirk is a tad more technical offensively. However, I refer Ribovics' power and I think his cardio may be just a small amount better. The difference for me is Kirk's ability to grapple in this fight. Ribovics just doesn't stop takedowns that well and his ground game isn't very good either. He is pretty consistent to give his back to try and get up and if he does that, I think Kirk jumps on it and will have a very real shot at submitting him. If we see this fight go late, Ribovics probably looks better and will have the better output late. It's just that his defensive grappling is so bad that I think even a gassed out Kirk could probably hit a takedown and get significant top time. Kirk has been pretty durable by and large, but with the power of Ribovics combined with the the lack of defense from Kirk makes me think a knockout is very live. Early, I think this fight is competitive on the feet and I think all of the upside is really on Kirk's ability to get this fight to the ground. I lean his way slightly here.
Bets to consider: Kirk ML +126
This is a tough fight to bet. Ultimately, I would rather be on the Kirk side. It's not a great number, but I do think this fight should probably be closer to -110/-110 than Ribovics around -155. I'm just not sure exactly where the upside is to get him to a number like that. His cardio is slightly less bad, but it's definitely not a strength. Kirk has power and Ribovics' own defensive issues make a knockout somewhat likely. I don't think the number is in the right spot as of this writing, but if we get some movement back towards +140 or better, I would jump in.
Jesus Aguilar defeats Shannon Ross Result:
I don't really have a ton to say about this fight. I guess I prefer Aguilar? I don't really know. Ross is a better striker and I think it's by a noticeable amount. He's going to have a volume edge and a technical edge. I just kind of think Aguilar's ability to get takedowns wins out here. He's not a great wrestler, but I do think his overall grappling is better, despite it not being amazing in the grand scheme of things. Both guys have pretty good cardio, so that really shouldn't be an issue. Ross has been knocked out a couple of times now and he's obviously not the most durable guy in the world, but I wouldn't go as far as to call him chinny and I don't really think Aguilar has that kind of power. Aguilar has been pretty durable in his own right. I don't know. I think this fight is probably competitive, but I guess I side with Aguilar and his ability to grapple.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds +116
I'm certainly not laying -154 on Aguilar, that's for sure. I suppose I would rather be on Ross at +126 because his striking is very obviously better, but I still don't really trust him. I would much rather be on the over. I don't really understand this being at plus money. I get that Ross has his history of knockouts, but Aguilar isn't that level of striker and doesn't have that kind of power. His overall submission game isn't all that impressive either. Ross could find a knockout I suppose, but Aguilar has been a durable guy. I just don't really see much of a path to a finish for either guy in this one.
Cameron Saaiman defeats Terrance Mitchell Result:
This fight is very likely to be pretty one sided. Saaiman should end up looking pretty good as he's just a much better fighter. Mitchell is making his UFC debut and I can't say that I really think he's a true, UFC level talent. He has some ability to wrestle and grapple, but it's nothing particularly impressive. Saaiman isn't the greatest grappler of all time and we've seen him have his troubles there, but I don't really think Mitchell will be able to give him trouble. Saaiman is probably better than I initially thought he would be. Maybe he gets taken down once early, but I would be really surprised if he got held down consistently. On the feet, I think Saaiman handles him and probably finishes him somewhat early.
Bets to consider: Saaiman by KO -150
I'm never the guy to lay minus money on props, but I suppose this is the best way to play this fight if you really want to. Most spots are juiced into oblivion, so it's not easy to find a play. I don't think playing Mitchell is tempting at all. I'm not really interested in playing an under 1.5 at -180. I guess you could take a shot at the over and hope Mitchell can have some grappling success, but I don't know that's really worth it. For someone who is -600 on the money line, I think -150 for a knockout is ok.
Vitor Petrino defeats Marcin Prachnio Result:
This fight is kind of all over the place. Prachnio has his issues. His defense really lacks on the feet and his chin doesn't really have much left to give. His cardio is also not very good. He doesn't grapple offensively and his defensive grappling is only average at best. With that said, he is a moderately decent striker. He's also been a bit more safe in his last few fights because he has to minimize how often he gets hit. He just can't take damage anymore. Petrino isn't a world beater, but I do think he's relatively ok in this spot. I think he's probably a worse striker from a technical perspective, but everywhere else he should be fine. He has better power, he's more durable, he should have better cardio, and he's a better grappler. I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that he can get takedowns, but he probably can late. I just think the lack of upside in Prachnio's game limits him here. If this is a slow paced, outside kickboxing match only at kicking range for 15 minutes, then Prachnio probably wins, but I just don't think that is what we get. I think Petrino either forces a brawl or can get in on his takedown attempts.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds +108
I may end up regretting this, but I think the over might be the play. Prachnio could end up getting put out instantly and I look stupid, but I do think this probably goes over. Prachnio isn't really forcing the issue the way he used to. If that is going to hold, Petrino isn't really good enough technically to force him into a fire fight. He could just rush him and try to force it that way, but that's about it. I think the better chance of a finish comes after Prachnio gasses out in the second half of the fight. Getting an over 1.5 at plus money will always be tempting and I think this is one that I may take a small shot on. Only a small play though.
Tatsuro Taira defeats Edgar Chairez Result:
This should be a pretty good fight for Taira. I think he's just a significantly better grappler. I don't always trust his wrestling, but I don't really think Chairez has the takedown defense to stay standing the entire fight. Once this fight hits the ground, Taira should be able to have a lot of success. Chairez has been controlled before and I do kind of assume Taira could do the same. I haven't decided if I think Taira submits him or not, but he will have enough top time to try. Chairez has to keep the fight standing. However, even if he does, I don't think his advantage is significant enough. He is a better striker, but his volume isn't all that great and I don't really trust his defense either. Taira's grappling is the best skill in this fight by a very large margin and that has to win out a vast majority of the time.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds +108
I don't really think a finish is as much of a forgone conclusion as some are making it out to be. Chairez has defended submissions off of his back fairly well in the past before. Now, Taira is the best submission grappler he's fought to date, but I do think he can fend them off for at least a little bit. I don't know that Taira just instantly getting takedowns in this fight is an automatic either. Again, I'm not saying be the house on it, but I think a small to medium play here is justified.
Alonzo Menifield defeats Jimmy Crute Result:
We're getting a rebook after this fight ended in a draw last time and my opinion really hasn't changed a whole lot. On the feet, I think Menifield is a better striker. He also has more power and I don't really trust Crute's defense and I'm not sure about his durability at this stage either. Crute's advantages come in the grappling and his cardio. Menifield's cardio obviously lacks and a high pace will likely tire him out here. Crute had more grappling success last time than I anticipated because Menifield historically stops takedowns so well. I think we probably get another relatively competitive fight, but I think I still have to side with Menifield's takedown defense and his power standing. The only real difference in my opinion is that I'm confident enough to pick Menifield outright this time and my opinion of Crute standing is less. I said last time that I thought Crute as more talented overall, which I still believe to a degree, but his striking defense is so bad that it really caps any success he could have standing. He could potentially grapple again, but it isn't often that you see someone rip Menifield to the ground while he's fresh.
Bets to consider: Menifield ML +104
The number was much better last fight, but I still kind of feel like he has to be the side in this one. For all of the reasons I just said, I do slightly prefer Menifield. I'm not as excited to play him at only +104 and I am leaning towards not doing it as things currently stand, but I may still. We just saw this fight go the distance and the over 2.5 is at +200, but I don't think I can play that either. Menifield's power combined with Crute's defense is just too much for me to really want to take a shot at it. I don't want to really play the under either though at juice. Maybe I'll take a shot on Menifield, but I'm not pumped up to do it.
Yazmin Jauregi defeats Denise Gomes Result:
I largely think Jauregi is probably fine in this fight. Jauregi is the better prospect by a decent amount, but she's not particularly refined. She does have a really tough core skill set though and it's going to be tough to overcome until she gets a significant step up in competition. She has pretty good power, good cardio, good output, and has been pretty durable. She's just not that technical and it is going to cause her problems at some point if she doesn't clean that up. She's so aggressive with her striking that she leaves herself open and can be hit really hard. I don't think her grappling is particularly great either. The biggest hurdle for Gomes is that I just think Jauregi is on a level above her. Stylistically, I think she should have a shot. Jauregi is porous enough defensively that Gomes is very likely to land some hard shots of her own. I also do kind of think Gomes may be able to hit some takedowns. The difference for me is the cardio and output from Jauregi. She's going to bring the fight and even if Gomes can have some good moments, a majority of the fight is going to be Jauregi out landing her.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -164
I think that taking a shot on Gomes is pretty justifiable at these prices. Her path isn't great, obviously, but it does at least exist. That's really all you need when someone is over +300. It's not like Jauregi is some battle tested known commodity either. She's still a young and inexperienced fighter with poor defense. However, I do think the over is a better look. Seeing a women's MMA fight in general having an over less than -200 doesn't happen very often and I think this is a spot where you have to consider jumping in. Jauregi could finish in theory, but Gomes has never shown any durability problems. I suppose Jauregi could just ovewhelm her late, but I don't know how likely that is either. Jauregi could get herself knocked out, but I don't really think this is the spot. Jauregi is very durable herself and Gomes, while she has some power, isn't anything too far out of the ordinary. I just think -164 is a good spot for a fight like this.
Niko Price defeats Robbie Lawler Result:
This fight honestly made me kind of sad. We know Lawler is retiring and Niko really doesn't look too far away from retirement himself. We do sort of at least know the story with Robbie at this point. He's just old at this point and doesn't have much left of what made him great once upon a time. His speed has fallen off, his power has fallen off, his cardio has fallen off, and his durability is fading too. He's never been the best at stopping takedowns and that is taking a step back as well. He's still a fine enough striker with some pop early on, but he just doesn't carry any of that deep into the fight at this stage. Despite being 7 years younger, Niko Price is undergoing a lot of the same. His cardio is no longer what it used to be. His physicality and dynamic athleticism is fading badly and he looks noticeably slower and just older recently. His defense has never been great and now his durability seems to be taking a step back. I do have to lean the Price side though. He is much younger, when they're fresh, he should have the better output. I think he may carry a bit more of his power still. I think the real key for Niko is going to be his grappling. He can probably take Robbie down and control him enough to steal otherwise competitive rounds, even while they're both gassed. I don't feel great about it, but that's where I'm at with this one.
Bets to consider: Lawler ML +188
If you're betting a side, it has to be Robbie. Betting this version of Niko Price at over -200 is just asking for trouble. I do kind of think Robbie is competitive in this fight if it is standing, but I'm not sure how long he stays upright. It also wouldn't surprise me if Price bought into the hype around it being Lawler's last fight and chose to stand and trade with him. I guess I would prefer Price in that fight as well, but I wouldn't feel great about it. The under is a bit juiced at -172, but I don't really trust the durability or cardio of either side to make it to the over. The pace of this fight probably goes off a cliff after a round, but it might only take one shot on either side for someone to go down. I kind of want to bet the Lawler side, but I'm not sure if I will.
Bo Nickal defeats Val Woodburn Result:
I mean, what do you really want me to say here? Bo probably wins this fight somewhat early. Woodburn is much shorter, he's not very experienced, and is probably just a regional type fighter. Bo Nickal has the wrestling ability to have huge success against a vast majority of fighters, especially ones at this level. I have my questions about Bo in terms of him being ranked or how high he reaches, but I don't really think this is the fight where we get answers to them. We have know idea about what he looks like defensively or how durable he is. We've never seen him fight a hard 15 minutes in MMA, although it is probably somewhat safe to assume his cardio is in at least an ok spot. I would be surprised if we see any resistance here, but maybe eventually.
Bets to consider: Woodburn ML +1400
I get how stupid this looks on the surface, but you do have to at least think twice about it right? I mean, this is still MMA. Crazier things have happened than Bo Nickal losing this fight. The guy still only has 4 MMA fights in his career at the end of the day. At prices like this, not much has to go right for Woodburn to cover his price. The possibility of Bo having his leg shut off by a calf kick and not being able to continue is probably enough to justify a bet if you really wanted to. I don't think I'll do it, but there's really nothing to lose with throwing a dart at Woodburn at that kind of number.
Jalin Turner defeats Dan Hooker Result:
This fight should be a good one for as long as we get to watch it. Turner's size and speed are really the difference in this one for me. Hooker is clearly declining a bit and a matchup like this isn't going to help matters. I do think Dan is live to a degree, but it is going to have to come late in the fight. The issue there is that he actually has to make it to that point. His durability is starting to fade on him a little and Turner has the power to put him out. I suppose Hooker could also have some grappling success in this one, but I don't really foresee him being able to swing the outcome of the fight with it. The biggest problem is going to be closing the distance. Dan has to get on the inside and with Turner's size and speed, he's probably going to have to eat some really hard shots to do it. I just don't know that Hooker has that in him anymore. Turner does have his holes though. I don't really trust his striking defense and now that we know he missed weight, you have to wonder what kind of condition that leaves him in. If Hooker survives early, he'll have a chance late, but it doesn't really feel like he'll make it to that stage.
Bets to consider: U1.5 rounds -106
Again, I'm not a big fan of going under 1.5 rounds, but this one is a bit more tempting than most. I kind of assume Turner is going to come out and force the issue in this one. That will force Hooker to engage with him and if they start swinging, it shouldn't be too long before someone goes down. I don't know if I'll be able to pull the trigger since minus numbers on 1.5 totals just aren't my thing, but it does feel like an ok number.
Robert Whittaker defeats Dricus Du Plessis Result:
This is such a weird fight, but it should be pretty good. On one hand, Whittaker is probably better at almost every single aspect of MMA. On the other, Dricus is just so physical that it wouldn't completely shock me if he pulled something off. On a technical level. Rob is just significantly better everywhere. He's a much better striker and grappler. Dricus has relied on his athletic traits through his run so far and it's clearly working for him. He's big, he's strong, and he doesn't stop coming forward. Despite the fact that he always looks like he's about to die, his cardio actually seems somewhat ok. He has to come out and force the issue in this fight, which he always does. He can't stand at range with Rob and he probably doesn't have the skills to grapple with him either. He has to somehow turn this into a brawl, which won't be easy. Rob moves well on the outside and will probably be able to keep himself safe for long stretches. The best chance for Dricus is to catch Rob and knock him out and while it's not impossible, it doesn't feel particularly likely either. This should be a good fight for Rob as long as he keeps himself safe. He probably should grapple in this one, but he'll probably kick box on the outside.
Bets to consider: Whittaker round 3 or decision +150
This is a tough fight to bet. Rob is my favorite fighter, so I don't really want to bet against him, but I don't hate the idea. Dricus at +265 is probably worth a dart throw. He doesn't have to do much to cover that cost and the fact that we know he's going to bring the fight for a full 15 and is pretty durable is a decent enough look. The way that I would bet Rob is round 3 or decision, but it may be a nail biter. Dricus really has no defense and I could see Rob hurting him early. Whittaker just doesn't really sit down on his shots, so I would more expect a finish to come later for him. It's not the best number ever, so I may just pass it.
Alexandre Pantoja defeats Brandon Moreno Result:
This is a very complicated fight for me. I think both fighters have the necessary skill sets to win this fight. I also think, at least for now, that I prefer Pantoja slightly skill for skill. What I don't like is that I don't really know what to expect from Pantoja. He has come out super aggressive in most of his fights in the last few years and if he does that here, he could find himself in trouble. He's been able to come out hot and finish guys in the past, but I would be pretty surprised if he finishes Moreno. If he does come out hot and doesn't get the finish, he might be putting himself in a bad spot. Pantoja really isn't known for having the best cardio and if he spends it all in the first round or two, the final three may be pretty bad for him. Moreno also has pretty good cardio, so we know he isn't going to tire out. However, if Pantoja fought a little more composed, I think he would be just fine standing. I also think he's the better grappler. Moreno does have good cardio, but he really doesn't push much of a pace. He doesn't throw amazing volume by and large, but he really should be able to take over down the stretch. I don't always think he's the best defensive fighter either. I don't think Moreno really has the option to grapple in this fight, so he's going to have to do it on the feet. I think Moreno can obviously compete there early, but he's going to have to turn up the volume late. He just doesn't really do that normally and he should be able to pull away after Pantoja slows. If Pantoja comes out and fights the right gameplan, I think he can and maybe even should win this fight. I'm not 100% sure he will, but I'll go with him here.
Bets to consider: Pantoja ML +160
I don't think this line is absurd or anything, but approaching -200 on Moreno is a bit much in my opinion. He just doesn't really fight a style that lends itself to heavy favorite kind of money. He just doesn't really put the gas pedal down late like someone with his cardio should. He's a good striker, but not a great one. Pantoja is a better grappler so I don't like Moreno there. I just kind of think this fight ends up being pretty competitive fight and Pantoja likely looks a lot better than +160. The past success helps, but those fights are so long ago and so much has changed since then that I'm not really putting any stock into it though.
Alex Volkanovski defeats Yair Rodriguz Result:
I think this is probably a pretty good fight for Volk. He's just a much better fighter in almost every aspect. His striking is better and much cleaner. He's probably faster by a bit as well. I think the biggest edge in this fight for Volk is the grappling. He really should be able to take Yair down and hold him down for long stretches. Even if this fight does stay standing for the most part, most of Yair's winning ability comes early. Volk has some of the best cardio in the entire sport, while Yair pretty consistently slows down after about 2 rounds. Yair will have his chances to some degree though. He's very dangerous both standing and with his submissions, so he should have his chances early, but if he doesn't finish it, it won't be looking good for him. I don't think Volk has the best chin in the world, so if Yair can hit one of his crazy spinning or jumping techniques, he could pull it off, but that's really his best chance in this one. Volk really should and probably will grapple him here though in route to another pretty solid win.
Bets to consider: Volkanovski rounds 4, 5, or decision -110
This isn't an easy fight to bet. I don't really want to be on the Yair side of anything at this point, so most of that is out. Playing Volk is weird because I'm not sure if he will grapple or not. If he does, the fight becomes much more likely to go to decision. I do think Volk can finish this fight though, especially late. I think 4, 5 or decision is a solid way to play it though. Volk I think is more likely to finish after Yair slows down than to just put him out cold early. Yair is pretty durable for the most part and his cardio is likely to be the reason he gets finished than anything else.
That's it for me on this card. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Aguilar/Ross O2.5 rounds 1 unit at +116 to win 1.16 units
Petrino/Prachnio O1.5 rounds .5 units at +108 to win .54 units
Taira/Chairez O1.5 rounds .5 units at +108 to win .54 units
Alonzo Menifield ML .5 units at +116 to win .58 units
Jauregui/Gomes O2.5 rounds 1.25 units at -164 to win .76 units
Robbie Lawler ML .5 units at +188 to win .94 units
Robert Whittaker round 3 or decision 1 unit at +150 to win 1.5 units
Alexandre Pantoja ML .75 units at +160 to win 1.20 units
Alex Volkanovski rounds 4, 5, or decision 2.20 units at -110 to win 2 units
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