After what will probably go down as one of the best cards of 2023, we are following it up with UFC Vegas 77. It is certainly an event and I think that is probably the best thing I could say about it. With the amount of events the UFC is putting on every year, you're going to get some lackluster events, but even then, usually the main event is intriguing enough. This doesn't even give us that. We have someone making their promotional debut in the co-main event, so that is really all you need to know. I'm not going to waste any more brain capacity on an intro, let's just do it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Ailin Perez defeats Ashlee Evans-Smith Result:
In a card that is mostly messy and/or weird fights, this one may take the cake right off the bat. I sort of have to pick Perez, but it's virtually impossible to feel good about. Perez just isn't particularly good at MMA. She's a grappler by base, but her wrestling just isn't at the standard it needs to be to consistently land takedowns at this level. Her ground game isn't particularly great either and her striking is worse. With that said, she is aggressive and that is probably the most reliable thing on either side of this fight. Evans-Smith is more reliable historically, but her recent history completely negates that. We haven't seen her since 2020 and she's coming off of injuries. I'm not someone who typically puts a lot of stock into narrative, but she really looks like she has her mind on everything but MMA at this point. She's also starting to get up there in age. At their best, I think Evans-Smith wins this fight pretty easily. It's just so hard to imagine that we get Evans-Smith at her best or, quite frankly, anywhere near it. I have to pick Perez, but nothing would surprise me in this fight.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +150
I think a poke at the under here is fine. There's a very real possibility that Evans-Smith is just too far gone. Injuries, age, time away, and aggressively pursuing other avenues is not a good recipe for winning a professional MMA fight. It wouldn't surprise me if the pressure from Perez just melted her at some point. I think there is also a world where Evans-Smith comes out and just runs Perez over. She just doesn't really have the high end skills to compete with many at this level. If Evans-Smith is truly prepared to fight, she really should finish this fight. It goes without saying that betting Perez at over -200 is asking to go bankrupt. I have almost no confidence to bet Evans-Smith though. The under is the way for me.
Alexander Munoz defeats Carl Deaton Result:
I do kind of think Munoz should be ok, but I also don't really trust him. The thing with this fight is that Deaton is a poor defensive grappler and his takedown defense is not very good. Munoz is a pretty good wrestler, which means that he should get takedowns whenever he wants. The issue lies in that Munoz really just doesn't hold anyone down and control them and I don't really suspect that we see that start now. If Deaton is able to consistently get back to his feet, then I don't see why this wouldn't be a competitive fight. It's not that Deaton is some amazing striker because he's certainly not, but Munoz is just kind of meh on the feet himself. His defense lacks enough that it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up losing a kickboxing match. I have to favor and pick Munoz just because of how sideways this could go in the grappling, but it's hard to have any supreme degree of confidence in.
Bets to consider: Deaton ML +176
This is sort of one of those spots where you may just have to close your eyes and hope for the best. I do sort of think that Deaton makes this a close-ish fight pretty consistently. I'm just not sure how many times I actually think he pulls it off. The ability to get takedowns, even if he doesn't get much control, is probably enough to swing otherwise competitive rounds. This line is probably wide, but I really don't know if I can sleep at night after losing money on Carl Deaton.
Azat Maksum defeats Tyson Nam Result:
I tend to believe that Maksum is safe in this spot. I have my questions abut him over the long term, but I don't think too much of it applies to this fight. I do worry about his striking defense and Nam's best trait is his power, but his volume is nonexistent. If Nam doesn't connect with a big shot, he virtually has no chance. Maksum is a grappler and he's going to push it pretty hard. I don't think his wrestling is anything out of the ordinary and I think his overall ground game is pretty average as well. He does have pretty good cardio though and he should be able to attempt as many takedowns as he needs. Nam has stopped takedowns pretty well for the most part, but it kind of feels like he's going to go down at some point just based on the volume of attempts coming at him. Maksum does seem to have some power of his own and Nam does take damage, so it wouldn't complete shock me to see him knocked out here. Maksum should look pretty good.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -144
I think the under is probably the best look, but I also don't think it is really all that great of one. This probably is lined about right, maybe a little short. Almost all of Nam's win path is via knockout. His low output just doesn't allow him to win decisions. I also kind of think that Maksum could push the pace on Nam a bit. He should be a better overall grappler as well. If he can get Nam down, he has a chance to submit him or potentially even finish him by just wearing him out. It's just a pass spot though.
Evan Elder defeats Genaro Valdez Result:
Evan Elder pretty much has Valdez covered here in my estimation. He really should be able to do whatever he wants. I think he's a better striker even though his defense isn't always the greatest. He's a bit too willing to go into the fire even though he doesn't always need to, which could hurt him at some point. Elder has the cardio advantage and he's the more durable fighter in this one as well. The even bigger difference is the grappling. Valdez lacks there in a noticeable way and Elder really should be able to get takedowns whenever he wants. If he wants the path of least resistance, that is it. If Elder chooses to keep this standing, he should still win at a high rate, but that at least gives Valdez a chance. He's got some power and he's not an awful striker. Pair that with Elder's lack of defense and that at provides the opportunity for a knockout.
Bets to consider: Valdez ML +245
If this fight stays at range, there's no way Elder looks -300. Elder is pretty content to trade standing and it's hard to say anyone who's even close to UFC level is +250 if they're just swinging in the pocket. With that said, the grappling differential is so significant that it's hard to pull the trigger on Valdez. Elder could and should wipe him out on the mat. The fact that I trust Elder's cardio and his chin more only make it a tougher pill to swallow. At +250, I think a dart throw is fine because no much has to go right to cover the price, but I do kind of think Elder is justified in being in the -300 range.
Melquizal Costa defeats Austin Lingo Result:
This was kind of a hard fight for me to really nail down an opinion on. Lingo has a very, I don't even know how to describe it, maybe unfortunate skill set. He's not the worst fighter I've ever seen and I would go as far as to say that his boxing is decent. He just doesn't really have much else to offer and he doesn't even have the skills to force the kind of fight that he wants. His grappling isn't particularly good and he really needs his opponent to stand in front of him. He struggles when his opponent can fight him out at range and I do think Costa can probably do just that. He should be able to just kick him from the outside without a ton of resistance. Costa really should grapple him, but he never really pursues grappling actively so I don't really expect him to do that here either. If Costa decided to stand in the pocket and trade then Lingo has a chance, but if he doesn't, his path is very, very limited.
Bets to consider: O2.5 -122
I just don't really think the way this fight plays out is going to lend itself to a finish. If Costa decides he is ok turning this into a war, then I guess he could get knocked out, but I don't really see that type of fight happening. If Costa really went for takedowns, he would likely get some and have a very real chance to submit Lingo here, but that's just not really his style. He just doesn't really attempt takedowns at that kind of rate. I think the most likely outcome is that we see Costa controlling this fight from range and we get a below average paced kickboxing match where Costa wins just because Lingo can't really get to him.
Istela Nunes defeats Viktoriia Dudakova Result:
This, unfortunately, is probably one of the more interesting fights on the card. This fight is going to be very clearly split into grappling and striking. On the feet, Nunes is going to be ahead by a noticeable margin. I don't really think there is much room for Dudakova to have much success standing in general. She's not particularly technical and her output just isn't really there. Nunes isn't necessarily going to wow you, but she is at least competent from a technical standpoint and throws decent output while she has energy. The grappling is pretty much the exact opposite. Nunes has just ok takedown defense, but has struggled off of her back at times. Dudakova is going to try and get this fight to the ground, but I'm not really sure if she actually does it. I don't think her wrestling is all that great, but I'm not convinced it really has to be in this matchup. It wouldn't shock me if she was able to just brute strength Nunes to the mat a time or two either. If she does, she can probably control or potentially even submit Nunes. The wrinkle in this fight is the cardio for Nunes. She has pretty consistently slowed down in the second half of fights. Now, they were all pretty high pace and Dudakova isn't really one to come out guns blazing, so maybe that helps her a bit, but if Dudakova can make Nunes work early, it should pay off later. Ultimately, I just kind of think what Nunes is going to be able to do on the feet in the first half is going to be more significant and a slower paced fight will help her maintain her cardio a bit longer.
Bets to consider: Nunes ML +168
This bet would sort of go against everything I normally do. In a striker vs grappler, I'm not backing the striker a ton, at least recently. I'm also not betting fighters with known cardio deficiencies very often, but I feel like this price is just wide. Maybe Nunes gets herself submitted again, which wouldn't surprise me one bit, but I just don't really see how this isn't a competitive fight while she's fresh. Early, I think Nunes is able to control the fight and get her volume off. She will probably slow late, but I think she can hold up a bit longer and that her takedown defense problems are being a little overstated. I just think this line needs to be closer to around -110 each.
Melsik Baghdasaryan defeats Tucker Lutz Result:
This is another fight that is actually almost interesting. Melsik is one of those guys who looks great on a highlight tape, but it just doesn't really translate well to consistent wins. He's fast and explosive. He throws some crazy strikes and his volume is decent while he has the energy. He just doesn't have the gas to maintain it for very long. His grappling also isn't particularly good. The reason I do side with him here though is that I think he has an elevated chance of finding that knockout blow in this one. Tucker Lutz isn't the worst or all that close to it, but I don't like how his weaknesses match up here. His striking is very limited and his defense lacks because of it. I don't really trust his durability and if Melsik is going to be landing, he probably gets knocked out. There is a path for Lutz though. If he can come out and push a grappling pace early, he has a chance. I don't trust Melsik's grappling or his cardio. Lutz may not have the best cardio himself, but it is certainly better. I just kind of think Melsik knocks him out, but if he doesn't, this fight probably is pretty competitive.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +108
This fight going over is probably messy. It wouldn't surprise me if the pace just falls off a cliff and the fight goes over because both guys are completely gassed out and can't really do anything. While they have energy, I do expect some action at least. Melsik is going to throw a lot with power while he can. If Lutz takes him down, he can probably submit him or get a later finish due to exhaustion. I wouldn't go huge, but I think an under at plus money for this fight is fine.
Nazim Sadykhov defeats Terrance McKinney Result:
The double edged sword that is a Terrance McKinney fight makes them almost impossible to pick. The way he generally fights really limits any skill gap, whether it would be in his favor or not. I kind of assume we're going to see the old Terrance who will just come out hot and let the chips fall where they may. I actually like a lot of what Terrance presents skill wise, but he caps himself. I don't think his cardio is that good and even if it was, he doesn't really try to manage or extend it. He just fights as hard as he can for as long as he can until he death gasses. He has about a round to a round and a half before he just has nothing left and he folds. I think he's an ok striker overall and he's very fast with a lot of power. I think both his wrestling and grappling are actually pretty good. He just doesn't fight in a way that allows him to maintain any of his skills beyond 6 or so minutes. Sadykhov has his issues, but the only thing he really has to worry about in this one is if he can survive the early onslaught. If he does, he is very likely to win. He has decent cardio and can push a pace. He finishes a gassed out McKinney with little issue. I do kind of worry about his grappling and it wouldn't surprise me if even a tired McKinney could hit some takedowns in this one though. I think you have to favor Sadykhov though. McKinney is so reckless early that you can't really favor either side, but if this fight extends, every passing minute pushes it more dramatically in Sadykhov's favor.
Bets to consider: Sadykhov ML -148
I think I missed the boat on this one. Better numbers on Sadykhov was probably the move on this fight. Anything beyond a round is very likely to be all Sadykhov and it's not like he doesn't have the skills to finish McKinney early. The question that I keep coming back to is do I actually think that Terrance can finish this fight early with any consistency. The answer that I've come to is that I kind of do. He's reckless and dangerous enough that he could knock Sadykhov out or submit him. Betting this fight is probably not the way to go at this stage. Throwing a dart on McKinney at plus money isn't awful, but he's so limited to round 1. Sadykhov has the path to look so much better than his price, but the early going is likely to be so hairy that I don't think you can pull the trigger on -150 either.
Norma Dumont defeats Chelsea Chandler Result:
This fight sort of has some parallels to the Nunes vs Dudakova fight for me, to a degree at least. I'm a bigger fan of Norma than the general consensus overall and I kind of think this is a decent spot for her. I guess the striking could be somewhat competitive. Chandler can box a bit, although I don't think it's anything out of the ordinary. I do think Dumont is probably a bit cleaner of a striker though and I like the speed and power she has on her shots a bit more. I also think Norma could really take over this fight if she chose to use her grappling. I don't really think Chandler is a good grappler and wouldn't be surprised if Dumont was able to really dominate her there if she tried. The one thing and where I draw the comparisons to the Nunes fight is that the cardio may really be the undoing of Norma here. I'm a little bit less worried because I don't really think Chandler has the path to really push a crazy pace, but it still wouldn't surprise me if Norma ends up losing down the stretch after she tires out. The issue is that I think Norma is better everywhere, so there's not really a clear space for Chandler to push a pace while also staying relatively safe.
Bets to consider: Dumont ML -142
It's kind of weird because the only thing making me second guess playing this is the cardio aspect. Dumont is the more skilled fighter in virtually every realm and she's only -140. I think I am ultimately going to pull the trigger though because the grappling edge is so significant that I think even a gassed out Dumont could probably just lay on top of Chandler for long stretches.
Jun Yong Park defeats Albert Duraev Result:
I think Park is actually in a good spot coming into this fight. Duraev is just a very limited fighter. His grappling is ok, but if he can't get to it, then he really has nowhere else to go. His striking is poor, his durability isn't the best, and his cardio isn't great. The issue that often arises is that even if he can have some grappling success early is that he doesn't have the cardio to maintain it. Park is a much more established fighter and he should be able to have a lot of success. He has had his struggles with grappling heavy styles in past, but I don't really think Duraev holds him down. Park does give his back often, but I'm not sold Duraev jumps on it. If this fight stays standing, Park is going to be able to do whatever he wants. The cardio aspect only is going to allow Park to have more success as the fight goes on. I feel pretty good about Park in this one.
Bets to consider: Park round 3 or decision +150
I think the Park money line is fine actually. You could probably play it and end up looking fine. I think the round 3 or decision is a much better way though. Any success Duraev has is going to happen early and it will fall off after that. Park really isn't a finisher at heart, but he could find one here. He doesn't have a ton of power, but once Duraev starts to fade, it wouldn't surprise me if Park just kind of melted him with pressure and volume. I think it's potentially a 50/50 fight in the first and Park wins rounds 2/3 very consistently.
Ottman Azaitar defeats Francisco Prado Result:
This card is really starting to wear on me. I think this fight probably just turns into a swinging contest. I'm not too high on either of these fighters, but in that kind of fight, they are at least being given what they want. I just think Azaitar is a bit more equipped in that style of fight. I trust his power more, I think his close range striking is a bit better, and he's just in general more experienced. I suppose that Prado could have some grappling success but I think the potential of that is pretty limited. I don't trust either fighter's gas and I don't really trust their durability either. This one won't last, but I'll lean the Azaitar way.
Bets to consider: Azaitar ML +100
I'm just not sure what Prado has done that dictates him being a favorite here. Like I said, I guess there is the potential to grapple, but I don't really suspect that he even goes for it, let alone has prolonged success. I think Azaitar has a small edge everywhere else. I just think he needs to be a small favorite instead of being the dog in this fight.
Jack Della Maddalena defeats Bassil Hafez Result:
Well, at least we do end up getting to see Jack fight. I think there are aspects to this fight that are interesting, but not quite enough to make it very interesting. I think it is pretty well known at this point that I am very skeptical of Jack's grappling. I think someone who knows what they're doing on the ground could and would submit him. Hafez does bring part of that. His grappling seems to be pretty solid. I'm not 100% convinced his wrestling is at the same level, but he is a pretty physical and athletic guy, so he can probably force some takedowns at times. The issue in this fight and all of his fights is that his cardio is really nonexistent. He's also stepping in on short notice for this fight. Hafez really needs to get on of his first 2-3 takedown attempts and get the submission pretty early because if this fight sees round 2, it's going to be all JDM. Even if this fight doesn't make it out of round 1, it could still be all JDM. For as long as this fight is at range, Jack is going to be lighting Hafez up. This is probably a pretty quick fight one way or another. I have to trust Jack here though.
Bets to consider: Hafez round 1 submission +2600
I'm not normally one for the really specific dart throw props, but this really is the way to play it. Round 1 submission is a bulk of how Hafez wins this fight and it's not that I think it is impossible. Hafez is a good grappler and Jack isn't. If he gets on top of him, he'll have opportunities to submit him. If he doesn't, I don't think his gas tank holds up and he gets knocked out. The lines on Jack are just juiced out of any playable range and even the under is kind of smoked.
Holly Holm defeats Mayra Bueno Silva Result:
In short, I think Holly should win this fight. This is probably the biggest step down she's had in quite awhile and is also the biggest step up that Bueno Silva has had in awhile. It's not that Silva doesn't have a path, but it seems very narrow to me. She has a decent submission game and it's not like Holly doesn't have her history of being submitted, but I don't really know how we get there. Mayra doesn't really even shoot a ton of takedowns and when she does, she doesn't convert a ton. Holm has largely had pretty good takedown defense over her career as well. Standing, Mayra is more aggressive, but she is going to be significantly behind Holm from a technical perspective. The striking defense is going to be a huge difference. Holm doesn't really get hit, while Silva gets hit more than she lands. Silva does have some power, but she doesn't get knockouts either so, I don't see why that would start now. I really think Holly is able to control this fight on the outside and pretty cleanly out strike Silva without too much of an issue. The only real question mark is Holly's age. She's going to go over the hill at some point and that could be here. If that is the case, could she get knocked out? Sure. However, she looked just fine a few months ago, so I don't see why she would just suddenly fall apart, but stranger things have happened.
Bets to consider: Holm ML -172
I feel pretty good about betting Holm here to be honest. If Holly wasn't over 40, I don't think we would be seeing as many people be worried about her in this fight. Now, we can't completely ignore her age either, but her recent showing was enough for me to feel comfortable about where she's at in that regard. The gap in level of competition is what stands out to me in this fight. Mayra beating Egger and Lansberg doesn't make me think she's going to all of the sudden step in and beat Holly. At the same time, Holly being over 40 doesn't make me thing she's going to randomly start losing to a level of fighter that she hasn't been competing against for the better part of the last decade.
That's it from me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card or at least try to. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Evans-Smith/Perez U2.5 rounds .5 units at +150 to win .75 units
Costa/Lingo O2.5 rounds .75 units at -122 to win .61 units
Istela Nunes ML .5 units at +168 to win .84 units
Baghdasaryan/Lutz U2.5 rounds .5 units at +108 to win .54 units
Norma Dumont ML 1.25 units at -142 to win .88 units
Jun Yong Park round 3 or decision 1 unit at +150 to win 1.50 units
Ottman Azaitar ML .5 units at +100 to win .5 units
Holly Holm ML 2.5 units at -172 to win 1.45 units
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