After a long week of finals, I'm probably looking forward to this card more than I should be. It's not the most amazing Fight Night you'll ever see, but I think it has enough interesting spots that it should be a decent watch even with the lower level nature of more than a few fights. It's also on at a decent hour here on the east coast, so I'll take what I can get. Rafael Dos Anjos vs Vicente Luque is kind of a random fight, but I don't see why it shouldn't be a decent main event. Let's get right into it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Juliana Miller defeats Luana Santos Result:
Things get off to a strange start as we get the return of Juliana Miller. I think everyone is sort of on the same page with Miller. Her MMA skills just lag way behind her physical traits. Her striking just isn't very good at all. She's also kind of low volume, which is odd because I don't think she has poor cardio. Her grappling really isn't all that great either in my estimation, but it is the better part of her game. She thrives based off of her size and strength. At the level of fights she's been getting, that has usually been enough. She just forces fights to the ground and is too physical for her opponents to really do anything about it. Santos is making her UFC debut and I'm not really sure what I should make of her. She's pretty inexperienced like Miller, but I guess her skills are a bit farther along. I'm just not sure the gap is wide enough to overcome the physicality that Miller is going to bring. I am going with Miller here, but I think we largely see a competitive fight.
Bets to consider: Miller ML +134
This is one of those spots where I sort of just have to close my eyes and hope for the best. While I am fully aware that Miller isn't anything special, it's not like Santos is someone that everyone is projecting to become a future champion either. We've seen these low level fights play out before and especially in women's divisions, we've seen the more physical fighter just be able to dominate regardless of whatever gap in skill there is. Getting Miller at +130 seems like an ok spot and I might make a small move on it.
Da'Mon Blackshear defeats Jose Johnson Result:
This fight really should go Blackshear's way, but that doesn't mean it will. Blackshear is just a much better grappler. Johnson doesn't stop takedowns well and once Blackshear is on top, he really should be able to get to dominant positions and probably submit him. There are two things that are potentially preventing this. The first is Johnson's power. He has significant power for his size and he's going to throw it. The second thing is that sometimes Blackshear just doesn't attempt takedowns as aggressively as he should. He gets stuck in long stretches of striking when he really shouldn't. If he does that here, he's only going to be exposing himself. If Blackshear comes out with the right game plan, he really should be fine, but that hasn't always been a strength of his, so we'll see.
Bets to consider: Johnson by KO +420
I just don't really trust Blackshear enough to be interested in him at where the line currently is. I don't necessarily want to be Johnson either, but it's starting to get to the point where you may want to consider it. The path is there and given some of the inconsistencies we've seen from Blackshear, I don't necessarily hate a shot. By KO seems to be a bit better to me right now since that is going to be a vast majority of Johnson's win equity, but at +220, the money line is fine as well if you want to cover some more scenarios. I don't really like Johnson's chances of winning a decision though, especially taking this fight on short notice.
Jaqueline Anorim defeats Montserrat Ruiz Result:
I guess this one will at least be entertaining. I think Anorim winning this fight by submission is the most likely outcome. Her ground game is the best individual skill on either side in this one. I think she probably gets takedowns and when she does, she should be able to submit Ruiz. The big thing with Anorim is that she has about a round of cardio. If we get deeper into this fight, she's probably going to gas pretty hard, but even then, I'm not really sure Ruiz has the skills to do much about it. Ruiz will probably want takedowns, but that is only going to be putting herself in harms way. Anorim probably submits her a vast majority of the time.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -164
This feels like a fight that pretty much has to go under. Everything is sort of aligning for Anorim to get the submission. She has a significant advantage there and Ruiz's game is going want this fight on the ground anyways. If for some reason that doesn't happen, Anorim's cardio is bad enough that she can get finished by just not being able to get up if Ruiz throws even 10 strikes in a row. It's a decent sized number, but I really don't see how this goes any other way.
Martin Buday defeats Josh Parisian Result:
I don't really have a ton to say about this fight. Buday pretty much needs this fight to take place in the clinch for 8+ minutes. I do kind of think it is possible that we see that. Anywhere else and it's kind of a 50/50 fight for me. Buday doesn't really attempt takedowns. He isn't a great striker. He has ok volume for heavyweight, but he has 0 defense. While Parisian has more of a definable, well rounded skill set, he just doesn't do anything all that well. He also has ok volume and not much defense. He's not a particularly great striker, but he's probably better at space than Buday. He's the more likely of the two to attempt a takedown, but I don't really think he grounds Buday here. I don't know. This is probably a sloppy, slow paced, close fight where Buday probably wins just because he's on the outside of the clinch landing knees to the thigh for long stretches.
Bets to consider: FGTD -116
I don't hate anyone taking the shot on Parisian. Buday at -215 seems like a stretch. He just doesn't have the skill set to look like a massive favorite against anyone of consequence. With that said, I think the fight goes the distance might be the spot. Both guys seem pretty durable to this point and I just don't really see where the finishing scenarios are going to come from. At space, the volume is ok for heavyweight, but nothing crazy. Neither guy really has crazy power either. I don't really suspect a takedown either. This fight seems pretty well set up to go to decision.
Francis Marshall defeats Isaac Dulgarian Result:
There's just way too many unknowns on the Dulgarian side for me. What we do know about him is that he's really aggressive and he's a pretty solid wrestler. Outside of that, it's really all question marks. It's not that I think Marshall is the second coming, but I do at least feel like I have a grasp on his skill set. He's just a solid fighter. He's more than likely the better striker in this one. He is a decent wrestler in his own right. Now, we don't know much about his defensive grappling, but he's a good enough offensive grappler that I have to assume he knows what he's doing. The interesting part is going to be the cardio. Marshall has good cardio and fights with a good pace. We don't really know anything about Dulgarian's cardio, but he's so aggressive that he has no choice but to slow later when he gets there. If Marshall can survive early, I think he probably looks good down the stretch. I think this is an ok spot for him.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds +130
I think you can consider playing Marshall at around -180, but I think I like the over a bit better. I really don't expect to see Dulgarian come out and just run Marshall over. Marshall is good enough and well rounded enough that even if he is losing, I expect him to stay competitive and stay in the fight. The one real path for a finish, in my opinion, is if Dulgarian can't finish the fight early, he just wilts. While that is possible and wouldn't surprise me, it's not really like Marshall is a guy who puts his foot on the gas to try and finish fights. He just sort of sets his pace and goes. At +130, I think I'm willing to take a shot.
Terrance McKinney defeats Mike Breeden Result:
I don't really have much to say about this fight either. We know McKinney is what he is at this point. I do think this is a decent spot to get him back on track though. Breeden's defense just isn't really there and against someone as dangerous as McKinney, that's really not a great recipe. McKinney has the power to knock him out. He is a better grappler and could probably submit him as well. With Terrance, it's always just a matter of him not getting finishes himself and his cardio if the fight extends. I don't really think this fight has a great chance of extending, but if it did, it really wouldn't surprise me if McKinney could get takedowns even while gassed. Breeden is a tough guy and if he can survive early, he obviously becomes live later, but I think the grappling is probably his undoing in this fight.
Bets to consider: Breeden ML +220
It's really hard to bet McKinney fights. He's a big favorite and all of the under and round one props are juiced as you may expect. The only way to go would be the Breeden side. It's hard to make someone a huge dog against McKinney unless they have obvious durability problems. Breeden doesn't have that, so he should be live, but his defensive grappling worries me a lot. I don't think I can pull the trigger, but it's not the worst look ever either.
Marcus McGhee defeats JP Buys Result:
I wasn't super high on McGhee when he was making his debut, but I do like him here. This is going to be a tale of two fights though, due to Buys cardio. The first round is going to be where he is most dangerous. He's an ok wrestler with a dangerous submission game. McGhee's struggles have come against grappling heavy styles. If Buys gets an early takedown, his chances of finding a submission are very, very real. There are two major issues though. The first is that he can only maintain that for a round. His cardio just doesn't hold up and he ends up getting finished pretty consistently after that. The other huge issue is his durability. The guy just doesn't take shots well at all and gets hurt almost every time he takes a clean shot from someone with any power at all. McGhee's grappling will have him in trouble early potentially, but if he can connect, his power is more than enough to put Buys away. That is what I think happens at some point in this fight.
Bets to consider: Buys by submission +650
The lines on everything McGhee are just sort of gone at this point. The only way to go is with Buys and even at +300, I just don't feel the need to play the money line. By submission feels like his only way to win. He's not going to be able to strike with McGhee and he doesn't have the cardio to win a decision. Even if he did, Buys is a better grappler by enough that if he were doing things that would win him a decision, he probably submits McGhee at that point. If you want to take the dart throw then that's fine, but that's really all it is.
Josh Fremd defeats Jamie Pickett Result:
This is a weird fight. I believe Pickett is a better fighter than what he has shown at times. He's big, he's strong, he's got some power, and he's shown an ability to get takedowns at times. He's just really struggled with decision making at times and it gets worse when someone is putting the pressure on him. It's as if the fight is happening too quickly for him to process and he just sort of shuts down. That is sort of what I think is going to happen here. If nothing else, Fremd is going to force the action. He has his issues, but he's well rounded enough that he can hang both striking and grappling. He has power and cardio. His biggest issue for me is his defense. I think that, at least in theory, Pickett could take advantage, but if Fremd starts putting the pressure on, Pickett probably gets finished.
Bets to consider: Fremd ITD -130
This is just kind of a strange line to me. Fremd is a guy who finishes almost all of his fights, win or lose. Fremd is also -350. However him to win inside the distance is -130? I just don't really understand I guess. The line is telling us that he should win a vast majority of the time, but it's almost 50/50 that it happens via decision? For Fremd's style and Pickett's history, that just doesn't really make a ton of sense to me. What does a Fremd decision even look like?
Tafon Nchukwi defeats AJ Dobson Result:
This fight is actually sort of interesting. I imagine that this is a pretty close fight. I don't really expect that we see a ton of grappling on either side in this one. Maybe Tafon works this fight into the clinch, but I don't think either side is getting any takedowns and even if they did, I don't think we see any extended control. On the feet, I think I prefer Tafon, but just slightly. I think his output will put him ahead on a minute to minute basis. Dobson's defense also isn't great, so I think Tafon can land with his high volume style of striking and maybe do some decent work in the clinch. There's a few things that worry me though. The first is Tafon's own defense. He is there to be hit at times and he hasn't taken strikes very well recently. His durability is a bit of a concern and Dobson has some power coming back. Tafon's lack of power sometimes hurts the optics of his performances. He's just not really doing the damage you would expect from a guy his size, so if Dobson is landing the harder shots, that could make a decision a bit messy. I do prefer Tafon slightly as a technical striker and on volume, so I'll go with him, but Dobson should be able to make this a competitive fight and he has the more upside of finding a finish, so it should be a good fight.
Bets to consider: Nchukwi ML -142
I think this could be a decent spot to buy low on Tafon. He's gotten knocked out twice in a row and the last one wasn't a great look. I do think his ability to win minutes and rounds in this fight is there, he just has to actually make it to decision. Dobson is there to be hit, so as long as Tafon doesn't get himself knocked out, I do think he is ok. The number isn't as good as I would have wanted, so I'm leaning towards passing, but I think Tafon bounces back.
Iasmin Lucindo defeats Polyana Viana Result:
This should be a pretty fun fight. Both women are going to come to fight and I'm here for it. On the feet, I think most people give Lucindo the edge, and while I'm not saying I disagree, I don't think the gap is as wide as some are making it out to be. Lucindo has power and she throws bombs, but that's kind of it. Viana is a bit more refined standing and is going to throw the straighter shots. She also does a better job of limiting damage and getting hit less. Lucindo brings the better output, but she does get hit more in return. In the grappling, Viana is the much more dangerous submission threat, but she's not really a wrestler and is willing to fight off of her back. Lucindo is a better wrestler and could probably get takedowns here, but she would be putting herself in danger. I think all of that kind of leads to Lucindo being just a slight favorite, but nowhere near where this line is right now. Her pace and cardio I think could end up being the difference though.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +132
I considered betting Viana and still am to an extent. I think Viana is a better technical fighter in most spots, but the aggression, power, and pace of Lucindo is what is holding me back. I think the under is a much better spot for me. Both fighters are going to be willing to engage standing. That will make a knockout a live outcome on both sides. Both women will be willing to trade and we've seen them finish opponents standing in the past. Viana also has the potential to find a submission in this one. I just think a high action fight with two women are game and dangerous makes for a decent bet when the under is plus money.
Khalil Rountree defeats Chris Daukaus Result:
This should be a good fight as well. I like Khalil in general, but he's just so inconsistent. This fight should be competitive, but I think I give a small edge to him here. The main thing that sets him apart for me is that I think his overall striking game is just a bit better and more diverse. With that said, this is a fight with very few places to look for an edge. Both guys are going to want to swing, neither has great defense, and neither wants to grapple. The plusses for Khalil are the more advanced kickboxing and Daukaus having a rough stretch with his durability. The plusses for Daukaus are his output and cardio. Daukaus is going to throw straight shots with good output. He's going to maintain his cardio as well, which is something Khalil has struggled with in the past. I just don't know how often we see that make a difference because it feels more likely that this fight ends early, one way or another. Both guys have power and lack defense, so it's probably a coin flip early with a slight lean towards Khalil for me.
Bets to consider: Daukaus ML +150
I mean, you could really only bet Daukaus here right. Betting Khalil at -180 just doesn't seem like a smart move given the up and down nature of most of his career to date. I think this is just one of those things where you have to blindly play the line and sort of try to forget about any of the narrative factors that are hard to ignore. Even if you don't prefer or even like Daukaus, the way this fight projects to play out just doesn't lend itself to one side being +150. I think in that regard, you almost have to have something on Daukaus.
Hakeem Dawodu defeats Cub Swanson Result:
This is kind of an unfortunate one. I think we all can kind of see that Cub hasn't been the same fighter for awhile now. His last fight was very strange as he went down in weight and got finished by leg kicks. In a different time, this was a fight Cub could and should win, but that time is well in the past. This version of Cub sort of feels stuck between a rock and a hard place. If he sits back, he probably eats a ton of low kicks and gets finished. If he bites the mouthpiece and goes for it, he probably gets countered pretty badly and finished anyways. I really don't see much of a path for Cub in this one and it is sad to say. I think Hakeem probably finishes this fight sometime in the latter half.
Bets to consider: Dawodu by KO +170
This is probably a fight to stay away from because all of the lines are so strange. This one also isn't great, but I do feel like Hakeem knocks Cub out pretty consistently. Whether that comes from accumulated damage over time or he clips him badly on a counter shot, I'm not sure, but the result is the same. I guess Cub could have some grappling success, but that seems unlikely as well. Just a pass spot for me.
Rafael Dos Anjos defeats Vicente Luque Result:
I've been a pretty big RDA fan for a long time and feel he is criminally underrated in MMA history. I really do think this is a nice spot for him. The grappling disparity is pretty clear. We saw Luque get out wrestled by Belal not too long ago and while Belal may be a better wrestler, RDA is much better once the fight hits the mat. On the feet, it's a bit more complicated. I wouldn't go as far as to say RDA is a better striker, but I think he may be a more effective one. Luque wants to brawl and RDA just isn't going to do that. He's going to limit exchanges and damage. Luque has taken a ton of damage in his career and does basically every fight. He had been historically durable until that fell apart on him last time out. He's now been out for an extended time with severe injuries from that fight. The one real question I have about RDA is his age and how that is going to impact his game going forward. He is getting up there in age now and at some point, he's going to start to diminish. He got knocked out by Fiziev, but I still do think his durability is largely intact. His defense should be good enough to not eat a ton of shots in this one, but Luque does throw a lot and does have real power. With that said, I do think this is a pretty good spot for RDA. I like his chances striking and he is clearly the better grappler.
Bets to consider: Dos Anjos ML -118
I'm not really sure how this line makes a ton of sense. I get that some people just want to bet Luque because of RDA's age, but is that really all it is? He is a better striker, but the defensive component makes it pretty close in my opinion. I'm not saying the RDA age concern isn't real, but I think the aging curve for Luque may be a concern as well. The age number isn't the same, but the guy has taken significantly more damage than RDA has, so I think that sort of cancels out any durability questions for me. I feel pretty good about RDA at this number.
That's it for me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Juliana Miller ML .5 units at +126 to win .63 units
Buday/Parisian FGTD .75 units at -126 to win .60 units
Marshall/Dulgarian O2.5 rounds .5 units at +130 to win .65 units
Josh Fremd ITD .75 units at -130 to win .58 units
Viana/Lucindo U2.5 rounds .5 units at +132 to win .66 units
Chris Daukaus ML .5 units at +150 win .75 units
Rafael Dos Anjos ML 2.4 units at -118 to win 2.03 units
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