Unfortunately, we are setting up for what probably ends up being the weakest PPV of the year, at least on paper. With that said, I think we do have the potential to see some pretty decent action, so it's not all lost. The main event doesn't really have a ton of steam on it though. With options like Dricus Du Plessis, Khamzat Chimaev, or a third fight against Alex Pereira, it's sort of hard to get up for a Sean Strickland title fight. I think I've been pretty clear on the fact that I find Sean to be kind of annoying, but on top of that, I just don't think he's all that interesting to watch and this matchup is pretty much the worst case scenario for him in my eyes. That doesn't mean he can't make it interesting, but I think our entertainment will likely have to come earlier in the card. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Kevin Jousset defeats Kiefer Crosbie Result:
This is kind of a weird fight to kick off the night, but it should be ok for what it is. I think the most likely outcome is that we get these two guys trading on the feet and in that case, I do think I prefer Jousset, although it isn't by a ton. If they're brawling, I don't think one guy has a significant advantage. Both have power and both lack defense, so it's kind of a coin flip in that regard. The difference for me is that I think Jousset has the better cardio and is a bit more durable. I don't really think we see a ton of grappling in this fight, so that just kind of leaves me with that to go off of. It wouldn't surprise me if Crosbie found a way to win or clipped Jousset and knocked him out, but I do think Jousset is just slightly better equipped to win the style of fight I expect to see.
Bets to consider: Jousset ML -156
It's hard for me to have a really strong betting take with this one. If I had to lean a side, I guess I would say I would rather have my money on Jousset. He's younger, bigger, longer, better cardio, and more durable. That is sort of the recipe for success in a fight like this one. -156 isn't a great number, but I do think I would feel more comfortable on him than Crosbie.
Shane Young defeats Gabriel Miranda Result:
Miranda is one of those first round all or nothing type of fighters, so this one should at least be interesting. I think it is pretty clear that Young is the better fighter skill for skill, but his style just isn't really definable enough to consistently win fights. He just doesn't really do anything well enough where he can really stand out and pull away in fights. He doesn't have big power, he doesn't wrestle, and his pace is just sort of mediocre. He also just hasn't looked very good lately. Miranda isn't nearly as good skill wise, but he is at least going to go for it. He's going to come out super aggressive. He'll throw a ton of strikes with some power, he'll absorb a ton of strikes, he'll try for takedowns and pull guard looking for guillotines. I do sort of think if he doesn't get a finish in the first that he probably gasses out pretty badly. My worry for Young is that even if Miranda does empty the tank, Young is never really the guy to step on the gas and try to push it. I have to go Young, but I can't really feel super strongly about him.
Bets to consider: Young ML -120
The line on Young has come down to the point where I think I have to jump in on him. Miranda's main path to victory is via finish, but I don't think he has super high chances of doing that here. Now, he could still just edge out a decision win just because Young doesn't really do anything, but that seems to be a lot of wishful thinking to get to a number like this. I think Young probably should sit out closer to the -140 range or -150. He's a hard guy to trust, but he is just the better fighter here.
Charlie Radtke defeats Blood Diamond Result:
With the third fight of the night, we have the return of Blood Diamond. I don't really know how or where the hype train on him started, but it is entirely gone now. The obvious issues have been that his grappling is so far from UFC level that there's really not much else to say about his game. However, his striking isn't nearly as good as we were told it was either. He throws a bunch of weird kicks and just kind of hopes for the best. With that said, it's not like Radtke is coming for the belt any time soon. Radtke is a primary grappler, albeit I don't think he's really anything special. His wrestling isn't that great, but I don't really think it has to be. At this point, I don't really even doubt that he could have some success on the feet. I have to go with Radtke here just because I think it only takes a takedown or two for him to win this fight.
Bets to consider: Radtke by submission +190
This is a big pass spot for me. I guess if you wanted to take a stab at something, Radtke by submission is the way? If he gets this down, there's really no excuse for him not finding a submission. The under is at -200 and I feel like a vast majority of that is Radtke by sub, so you're getting a much better price. You just can't bet Charlie Radtke at -300 and I really don't want to bet Blood Diamond at any number so, that's that for this fight.
Nasrat Haqparast defeats Landon Quinones Result:
This should be a pretty good fight for Nasrat in my estimation. He's just a really solid fighter. He has decent volume and ok power on the feet. He doesn't wrestle, but he largely does a pretty good job of stopping takedowns coming back his way. I'm not really sure what I'm supposed to make of Quinones at this stage of his career. I don't think he's a terrible fighter by any means, but it sort of feels like this fight is just levels above him right now. I don't foresee a ton of grappling success for him. On the feet, while he can be dangerous, Nasrat is a pretty durable guy and I think his striking is probably just better with better output. Nasrat is also just much more experienced against much better competition as things currently stand.
Bets to consider: Haqparast by KO +160
This is another pass spot for me as the lines are just sort of gone for this fight. I think Nasrat wins this fight a vast majority of the time, but he's just not really a -500 type of fighter. At the same time, I really have no basis upon which to play Quinones, so that's not an option. Nasrat has historically fought to a lot of decisions, but I think he can get the knockout in this one. Unfortunately, that number is also not great. I guess if there was a spot I would still go to that, but there's no real reason to play this fight in my opinion.
Jamie Mullarkey defeats John Makdessi Result:
This fight should actually be a solid one. I think a different version of Makdessi could make this fight really interesting and potentially even end up a favorite, but the current version...not so much. Makdessi has always been a guy who stuffs takedowns, keeps the fight at range, and strikes with high volume and he still does all of that. He's just lost a bit of his footspeed in his movement and he's getting hit a lot more. When he's getting hit, I don't think his durability is where it used to be. Offensively, he still has his volume, but he just has so little power that it doesn't really feel like he's doing much. Mullarkey is the kind of guy that I think plays into a lot of what Makdessi wants to do. He's very aggressive and there to be hit. I just kind of think the age, size, strength, and power might be too much for John at this stage of his career. Mullarkey is going to force the issue and when he starts connecting, I don't think Makdessi holds up. Mullarkey can probably mostly keep up with Makdessi's volume and his power is so much more significant that it probably outweighs any small gap on the totals.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +162
The knockout path for Mullarkey is much more obvious and I think is the one everyone sees. I do think there is at least something to be said for a Makdessi knockout though. He doesn't have much power and Mullarkey is tough, but we've seen him hurt many times before. Makdessi is going to throw a lot of Mullarkey has no defense, so I think the path is at least there to a degree. I think a shot on the under is an ok look, especially for this card.
Jack Jenkins defeats Chepe Marsical Result:
This should also end up being a pretty solid scrap. Despite some of the issues in his game, I do prefer Jenkins here. On the feet, I think he's just pretty clearly better. He has good volume, he has really good low kicks, and he has decent power. I think he's just a bit cleaner and more advanced than Chepe. Jenkins has decent enough offensive wrestling, although I don't really suspect he has a ton of success there in this fight. The biggest weakness we saw from him last time is his bottom game just doesn't really exist. Chepe isn't an amazing grappler, but if he can get on top in this one, he should be able to do pretty good work. On the feet, I think Chepe will have his moments, but I think he pretty cleanly ends up behind. On top of that, I don't really trust his cardio or durability. I know both seemed ok against Peek in his debut, but historically those have been weaker spots for him. I like Jenkins in this spot and I think he has a decent shot to finish as well.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +160
The over for this one has gotten juiced to the point where I think the under is a decent look. Chepe just doesn't really have the defense, the gas tank, or the durability to fight better UFC fighters than Trevor Peek consistently. If he kickboxes with Jack Jenkins for 15 minutes, he's very likely to lose and I think decently likely to get himself knocked out. At the same time, if Chepe can get extended top time, based on what we previously saw from Jack on bottom, Chepe could really do a ton of damage there and find a finish himself. I think it might be worth a poke.
Carlos Ulberg defeats Da Woon Jung Result:
I feel like every time he fights I say that I'm not as sold on Ulberg as everyone else seems to be, but then I pick him to win anyways. We're sticking to that here. I may be underselling Ulberg a bit though. He is a decently technical striker, he has real power, and he's pretty fast for his size. I really just don't trust his defense or his cardio. We also know basically nothing about his grappling. Jung is going to be the best opponent he's fought in a long time, but Ulberg does hold some advantages. He's faster and probably a more technically sound kick boxer. Jung does bring power of his own though, so the defensive issues could be a problem. Jung doesn't defend particularly well either. I suppose there's a chance that Jung can have some success grappling, but I don't think it's tremendously high. I have to favor Ulberg, but the step up in competition has me at least considering the possibility that this could be a tougher fight for him than we think.
Bets to consider: Jung ML +225
I get Ulberg being favored here for all of the reasons that I just talked about. However, having him near -300 seems a bit strange to me. If we're getting two guys with big power who want to strike, but don't have good defense, that just doesn't sound like the type of fight where one guy is a huge favorite. I think Ulberg -180 even could be a lot more reasonable. Jung has fought much better competition while Ulberg has largely been capitalizing on much worse competition that posed little to no threat to him. I think a small play on Jung is fine.
Tyson Pedro defeats Anton Turkalj Result:
This is just going to be one of those fights it feels like. Either Pedro is going to steamroll Turkalj in the first round or his cardio is going to fail and he's going to get melted late. I kind of lean towards the Pedro steamrolling side. As long as he's fresh, Pedro is probably the better fighter everywhere. He's clearly a much better striker. He's cleaner, he's faster, and more powerful. Turkalj also really doesn't have much defense and while he's been durable to date, I don't think standing in there and eating bombs from Tyson Pedro is the recipe for success. Turkalj is a grappler and while Pedro is known more as a striker, I think he can grapple enough to stay safe while he has the energy. The problem with Tyson Pedro is he doesn't have the energy for very long. If Turkalj can weather the storm early, he is likely going to be able to dominate Pedro down the stretch. I just don't really think he gets there.
Bets to consider: U1.5 rounds -102
I never go for under 1.5 rounds and I probably won't here, but it does feel like it goes under to me. Pedro is very likely to have a good round 1 and if a guy with his kind of power is landing clean strikes like he will against Turkalj, I have a hard time seeing him make it into round two. If he somehow does, he probably is able to finish himself, but I really think with Turkalj's lack of defense, an early Pedro win is in the cards.
Justin Tafa defeats Austen Lane Result:
This fight is probably going to be pretty lackluster one way or another. It's hard to believe, but I do trust Tafa more. I think his striking is just much better, he's a lot faster, and has legitimate power. On the feet, I just don't really think Lane has much of a path at all. Sure, he has some power of his own and I guess he could clip Tafa and knock him out, but that seems very unlikely. The path for Lane would be via grappling. We haven't really seen Tafa have to do a ton of wrestling, but I don't really have a reason to believe he's all that great there. If Lane can get him down, I do think he could probably do some good work there. However, Tafa is the much better athlete and Lane really isn't that good of a wrestler, so I don't think the takedowns come that easy for him and even if they did, I don't know that he has the cardio to really go for it like that. I think Tafa probably connects with big shots early and knocks him out.
Betting thoughts:
This is a spot to just stay away from. I couldn't even find a line to list for this fight. Betting Tafa at juice is just a non-started. The under 1.5 rounds is -230, so really nothing to do with that line either. Even Tafa by KO is -140. I guess you could try to take a poke at the over and hope that we could a tentative, slow paced fight, which is at least possible. You could try to take the shot on Lane and hope he has grappling success. I just can't even get all that close to wanting to do either though.
Manel Kape defeats Felipe Dos Santos Result:
I think this is a pretty decent spot for Manel Kape. Dos Santos is making his UFC debut and I think he does have some skills, at least to an extent. I think the issue is that everything that could make him successful in other situations play exactly into what Kape wants him to do. Dos Santos wants to strike and he's going to be very aggressive when he's doing so. That is going to play right into Kape's counter heavy game. Kape is the much cleaner striker, he's faster, and he's more powerful. When he starts landing, I think he's likely to hurt Dos Santos pretty consistently. I also think that Kape could grapple here if he really wanted to, but I don't really expect him to do so. At some point, I think Dos Santos runs into a big counter that he can't recover from and Kape ends up finishing him.
Betting thoughts:
This is another fight where the lines are just kind of too far gone. Kape is better, but there's really no point in betting him at -400. I've heard some people liking the aggression of Dos Santos since Kape has had problems pulling the trigger at times in the past, but I don't think Kape is just going to let him get off free volume if he's just bringing the fight to him the way he normally does. The under is -180 and while that's not completely smoked, it's not great. Kape ITD is -170 so that's gone. Just another spot to sit and watch.
Alexander Volkov defeats Tai Tuivasa Result:
For as much as I like Tai, this fight really is one of the tougher matchups for him. Volkov has a lot of the traits that neutralize what Tai can do well and is probably just a more talented fighter in every aspect except power. If this fight stays standing, Volkov is much bigger and longer. He uses his size well and is able to keep fights at distance. He has good volume and pretty good cardio for his size. I think he is a better striker overall and he's probably more durable as well. I would even say he could grapple in this fight if he really wanted to even though that is probably pretty unlikely. We know Tuivasa has the power to put anyone out at any moment, but I think that is going to be a tougher task for him in this fight. Volkov is going to keep the fight out at his range pretty much the whole time and Tai is going to have to take some damage to get into the pocket. Volkov is probably going to be able to land big on him in those moments. While Tuivasa has the power to knock out basically anyone, I really don't see it happening here.
Bets to consider: U1.5 rounds -112
The number could be a tad better, especially for a 1.5 total. I do think this fight probably finishes somewhat quickly though. Tuivasa isn't going to be able to just pick his shots. He's going to have to go for it or he's just going to get beaten up on the outside. Either he'll get in and land the big shot on Volkov or he's going to get countered pretty badly on the way in and finished himself. Either way, I do expect a first round finish, but I don't think the number is there for me to really want to take the chance.
Israel Adesanya defeats Sean Strickland Result:
This fight really isn't that interesting to me. I just don't know what Strickland has in his game to make this fight all that interesting. He's aggressive, he throws volume, he's pretty sound defensively, but I don't think any of that really adds up to him beating Izzy. He's not going to have any grappling success and I'm not even convinced that he actually tries for it. On the feet, he has the volume to at least make the numbers competitive in theory, but I think Izzy is just a much more technical fighter with a much wider array of weapons at his disposal. I think Izzy moves a lot better and will be able to fight on the outside with little to no issue. I really don't see much of a path for Sean. I think he has the skills to make this one closer than some people are suggesting, but I don't really see a path for him to pull off the upset either. He's not going to outstrike Izzy on a technical level. He's not going to overwhelm him with volume. He's not going to one shot knock him out. He isn't going to grapple him. It's just a horrible matchup for Sean.
Bets to consider: O4.5 rounds +108
Seeing an Adesanya fight at plus money to go over is a bit interesting considering what everyone though of him like a year ago. I don't really see why this would be the fight to go under either. I get that they're high volume, but neither guy is known for having big power. Both guys are pretty decent defensively as well. Both guys have been pretty durable. I almost feel like I'm missing something with this one.
That's it for me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Shane Young ML .75 units -116 to win .65 units
Mullarkey/Makdessi U2.5 rounds .5 units at +162 to win .81 units
Jenkins/Mariscal U2.5 rounds .5 units at +160 to win .8 units
Da Woon Jung ML .5 units at +240 to win 1.2 units
Strickland/Adesanya O4.5 rounds 1 unit at +108 to win 1.08 units
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