For the first time in a couple of weeks, we finally have a UFC main event that is interesting. I think I was as interested in seeing Dern vs Rodriguez as anyone, but that card left a little to be desired still. Last week was Ladd vs Dumount and I haven't posted about that at all because the most interesting talking point of the entire event was Aspen Ladd's coach (shoutout to Jim Miller and Andrei Arlovski though). This is the first time I am doing a look ahead type of post so, the format is far from a sure thing at this point. With that said, let's preview tomorrow's main event of Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori.
At the beginning of the week, this fight was slated to be a matchup of highly ranked middleweight contenders who are both coming off of a loss to current champion Israel Adesanya. For Costa in particular, a win over Vettori would have put him on a short list with Derek Brunson and Jared Cannonier as potential next contenders for the middleweight strap (assuming the Adesanya and Whittaker rematch finally happens). With Brunson and Cannonier scheduled to fight each other, the winner of that fight would likely have the next shot at the champion. Obviously, a win by Whittaker would almost definitely result in an immediate rematch, but going through every potential matchup based on guessing outcomes would take way too long and is not the point of this post. My point is, with a win, Paulo Costa could have been fighting for the title again as early as late 2022. The path for Vettori is more unclear as he already has 2 losses to Adesanya with the last being much more definitive than their first fight (despite what Vettori says). On top of that, the second fight between them wasn't really a fight many were really getting up for as most fans believed Adesanya had elevated multiple levels beyond Vettori since the first fight, which proved to largely be true. I don't think a third fight between the two happens any time soon, if at all.
Regardless of how the exact title asperations laid out in detail for each, two middleweights in the top 5 matching up more than qualified this for a main event spot, especially given last weeks card. All of this was flipped on it's head in the last few days after Paulo Costa said in his press conference that he weighs 211 lbs and will not make the middleweight limit of 186. Given his size, a move up for Costa was all but guaranteed at some point, but I don't think anyone saw it coming a few days before a scheduled middleweight bout. All credit goes to Vettori here for being a competitor (and obviously wanting to get paid still) as he accepted to fight at a 195 lbs catch weight. This is a weight class we've seen brought up in the past but still has never been made, but that is a different topic for a different day. I'm not really sure on the exact timing here due to my class schedule, but it was either late last night or early this morning that the fight was then moved to 205 lbs, which is honestly kind of stupid. We saw this happen with the Nick Diaz and Robbie Lawler fight (from 170 to 185), but neither of those guys is trying to get back to a title in the near future. Moving up a full 20 lbs for a fight that was supposed to be a title eliminator of sorts definitely is less than ideal and having to move it this much is what is really a cause for concern. For a guy as big as Costa, cutting the weight is always going to be a struggle even though he hasn't really had any documented issues in the past. Regardless of if he's ever missed or not, cutting as much as he does would be a ton of work and energy that he no longer has to do. This would be especially helpful in a scenario where he has known for weeks that he was never going to cut any weight. Vettori on the other hand found out along the same timeline that we did and he's definitely not a small middleweight by any means. The more slender middleweights like Adesanya and Kevin Holland make 185 without issue, but for someone like Vettori, he's likely been prepping and slowly taking weight off for weeks in order to even be in a position to cut to 185. It seems possible (and given his weight of 211 lbs, likely) that Costa knew he wasn't going to cut, but let Vettori do all of the necessary work to prep for the cut then pulled the rug out from under him at the last second.
I don't even consider myself a huge fan of Marvin Vettori (but respect, as I have for anyone who gets into the cage), but even I have to give him all the credit in the world for staying in for this one. While I think him insisting he won the rematch versus Adesanya is a little weird and annoying at times, it's not like he's the only person who's ever done that and he won't be the last. Costa on the other hand has really fallen out of favor with me personally. I was never a huge fan of his, but as a fan, his behavior since losing to Adesanya has been a little too much. Claiming to be hungover is definitely an excuse I haven't heard before, but whatever right? He has to come up with something to make himself think he can win a rematch. Fighters say stupid things all the time when it comes to why they lost to someone, so this didn't even bother me all that much. He pulled out of two fights prior to this, which again, as a fan, is a little disappointing, but still, I don't hold it against him. This however is just too much. Signing a contract to fight at 185 lbs and showing up on fight week at 211 lbs is blatantly disrespectful and based on how it's played out, potentially dangerous as he'll likely have a massive size advantage as Vettori was likely planning if not already starting his final cut to 185 when the news broke that the fight was being moved to 195 and then 205.
This can turn into a conversation about what the penalty should be and I don't think I'm going to get into that here. Tell me what you guys think about all of this. For anyone who fights or even competes in other sorts of competitions (wrestling or jiu jitsu or something else) how disrespectful is this to you? What do you think the penalty should be? Do you think Vettori wins or does the weight change help Costa get the W? Thanks for reading as always.
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