Alright, we made it. We got through the week and we are now set for a great slate of fights later on tonight. UFC 268 is almost guaranteed to be a tremendous night of combat and for the second time, I will be making my picks official and public, so no hiding and claiming to have known exactly what was going to happen. Like I said before, this isn't really a betting guide per se. I don't pick based on odds or try to pick props or find the best bets or anything like that. I just straight up pick the winners and we'll see how well I can do and you guys can either tell me how smart I am or that I should stop watching MMA altogether, whichever you see as the better option. Last week was my first time doing it and I went 10-4, meaning I am also 10-4 for the year. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's not waste any more time and get into it.
CJ Vergara defeats Ode Osbourne Result: Osbourne by decision (0-1)
Tough one to start off the card. Both of these guys either finish the fight or get finished. Add to the equation that Vergara missed weight and you get a toss up. Osbourne had been fighting at 145 and 135 for most of his career and is making his second appearance at 125 after being knocked out in his first try at flyweight. I think the weight cut may take too much off of his chin as that was his first time being knocked out. I'll go with the more experienced guy for the weight class (who missed weight) and hope for the best.
Melsik Baghdasaryan defeats Bruno Souza Result: Baghdasaryan by decision (1-1)
Baghdasaryan should get the win here. Souza missed weight after being named a short notice replacement for this fight, which isn't going to help his cause. Baghdasaryan is a high level kick boxer landing more than 6 strikes per minute with solid enough defense absorbing 3.76 per minute. The odds are just too stacked against Souza here. A tough fight on short notice and missing weight will be too much to overcome.
Dustin Jacoby defeats John Allan Result: Jacoby by decision (2-1)
I like Jacoby to get the win in this one. He has an obvious kick boxing advantage and will get the reach advantage with his arms and his legs. He lands 4.32 strikes per minute and absorbs 3.36 per minute. Allan absorbs more than he lands (2.95 landed versus 4.01 absorbed per minute), which isn't a great recipe for success against Jacoby. Allan does get 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 71% clip, but he hasn't had much UFC success and I don't think that starts now.
Gian Villante defeats Chris Barnett Result: Barnett by KO/TKO (2-2)
This is such a weird fight. Both fighters absorb more strikes than they land, which is obviously less than ideal. Both weighed in just under the 265 lbs limit, but Barnett is only 5'9. He didn't look great in his UFC debut against Ben Rothwell despite having good power in his hands. Villante is too tough to go down early and I think will outlast Barnett cardio wise and walk away a winner in what he said will be his retirement fight.
Ian Garry defeats Jordan Williams Result: Garry by KO/TKO (3-2)
Despite a huge knockout win in his second try on the contender series, Jordan Williams has struggled since officially joining the UFC. He's lost both fights without either one being particularly close and now he's running into a phenom in Ian Garry. I don't like this matchup for Williams and he'll have to go one more fight without his first UFC win.
Edmen Shahbazyan defeats Nassourdine Imavov Result: Imavov by KO/TKO (3-3)
Shahbazyan has fallen on hard times after being dominated when he was on the bottom. That shouldn't be an issue with Imavov. Imavov does have good takedown defense, but Shahbazyan averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes and I think he should get some here. Shahbazyan's stats have been a little thrown off by his last two fights, but he does have to be careful on the feet as Imavov lands his shots at over 4 a minute while absorbing only 2.23 per minute. I think Shahbazyan gets some takedowns and comes out with the win.
Phil Hawes defeats Chris Curtis Result: Curtis by KO/TKO (3-4)
This one should be pretty interesting. Curtis is an extremely active fighter who lands over 7 strikes per minute, but he also absorbs a lot of damage taking over 5 strikes per minute. Hawes isn't nearly as active on the feet, but he is also better defensively. Hawes doesn't land takedowns at a very high rate, but he does get 2.70 of them per 15 minutes. He also has a 100% takedown defense. I like Hawes to get it done and make it an MMA fight and mix things up between the striking and grappling.
Bobby Green defeats Al Iaquinta Result: Green by KO/TKO (4-4)
Another fun fight here that should be an all stand up battle. I think Bobby Green has the speed advantage which will help him both with offense and defense. He lands more strikes than Al and absorbs less than Al based on per minute averages. Al's long layoff won't help things either.
Alex Pereira defeats Andreas Michailidis Result: Pereira by KO/TKO (5-4)
Pereira as we've heard so many times is the fighter who knocked out Israel Adesanya in a kickboxing match and defeated him another time. Michailidis averages less than 1 takedown per 15 minutes, so I don't expect him to be taking this fight to the ground despite Pereira's inexperience. I can't pick against someone who beat Israel Adesanya in kickboxing in a fight that should be primarily kickboxing based.
Justin Gaethje defeats Michael Chandler Result: Gaethje by decision (6-4)
I think Gaethje uses his leg kicks as the difference maker in this one. Chandler will try to wrestle and he will probably get a takedown or two, but I believe Gaethje will be able to damage Chandler on the way in and chop his legs when they're at range. In a fight that no one predicts to go the distance, Chandler's chin has shown more wear and tear.
Billy Quarantillo defeats Shane Burgos Result: Burgos by decision (6-5)
Both guys throw a lot of shots (both over 7 per minute) and both aren't very likely to get a takedown. Burgos lands .27 takedowns per 15 at 100% effectiveness, meaning he never tries for any. Quarantillo lands 1.66 per 15, but only at a 34% accuracy and Burgos has 89% takedown defense, so the fight won't be hitting the mat. The difference will be that Burgos absorbs 6.11 strikes per minute and Quarantillo absorbs 4.33 per minute.
Frankie Edgar defeats Marlon Vera Result: Vera by KO/TKO (6-6)
I think Edgar is a more well rounded fighter with more ways to win. He lands 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, albeit at not a great accuracy percentage. He lands 3.70 strikes per minute while absorbing 2.71 per minute. Vera lands 3.91 per minute, while absorbing 4.08 per minute. I think they're pretty even on the feet with Vera taking more damage and Edgar has the wrestling advantage, which seems like a recipe for success.
Rose Namajunas defeats Zhang Weili Result: Namajunas by decision (7-6)
Pretty similar story to the Edgar vs Vera fight for me, just a little closer. I think Rose has more ways to win. She takes less damage in terms of strikes per minute on the feet, but lands less. Weili does have a power advantage, which could be a problem if she lands as often as she normally does (over 6 strikes a minute). Rose does better at getting takedowns, but Weili has a 100% takedown defense. I think Rose can edge out a victory and retain her title.
Kamaru Usman defeats Colby Covington Result: Usman by decision (8-6)
We saw how close this fight was the first time and Usman was able to just overcome Colby in the 5th. We've seen Usman improve significantly while Covington has been largely inactive since. Maybe Colby has made crazy improvements, but I can't make my pick relying on baseless hypotheticals. Wouldn't be surprised one bit by a Covington win, but I just have to trust my eyes with this one and they're telling me Usman is the pound for pound best fighter in the world right now.
Well. That's it for this one. It's 2:30 in the morning and I'm going to bed. I seriously cannot wait for this night of fights and I'll be back afterwards to tally the results and list them on here. Enjoy the fights everyone. Have a good night with your family or friends. Leave a comment below and tell me what you think. Let me know if you're riding with me or fading me. Who wins the titles? Who wins the Gaethje vs Chandler fight? Leave your picks below. I want this to catch on so we can have a weekly contest, so spread the word. Thanks for reading and enjoy a great night of competition.
UPDATE: well, not my best night as you can tell. Hawes looked great up until he was knocked out and I would've liked to have seen the Edgar vs Vera fight go the distance and see what decision we would have heard, but, that's just how it goes sometimes. I thought I had identified the underdogs who could or would win and they weren't able to get it done, while some others found the upset and it shows itself with a record just over .500 for the night. Hopefully a better week next week.
Weekly Record: 8-6
Previous Yearly Record: 10-4
New Yearly Record: 18-10
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