Another Saturday means another week of fights and while it's not the title defenses we've gotten in each of the last two weeks, it still is a pretty nice looking main event. We get Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez and there's some other decent matchups to go along with it. This is the post that comes every week where I will make my pick for every fight and serve as some basic version of a betting guide, but no props or anything like that. I'll keep track of my record each week and then a total record for the year. Last week I was 8-6, which makes me 18-10 for the year. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Kennedy Nzechukwu defeats Da Un Jung Result: Jung by KO/TKO (0-1)
Should be a pretty interesting fight right off the bat. Both fighters are pretty even here. They both land about as many strikes as they absorb per minute on the feet. Jung gets takedowns offensively at a 61% clip, but Nzechukwu defends them at 80%. If it stays on the feet, I like Nzechukwu's power and meaningful 5 inch reach advantage.
Marc Diakiese defeats Rafael Alves Result: Alves by sub (0-2)
We haven't seen Marc Diakiese in a minute, but I do like him to come out on top in this fight. Diakiese lands 3.08 strikes per minute and absorbs 2.79 per minute. He also lands 2.16 per 15 minutes at a 36% rate. Alves on the other hand absorbs more strikes than he lands on a per minute basis, has 50% takedown defense and has never landed a takedown offensively according to the UFC stats page. Diakiese will also have a 5 inch reach advantage.
Cortney Casey defeats Liana Jojua Result: Casey by decision (1-2)
This will start out a lot like what I just said. Casey has a 5 inch reach advantage, lands 4.33 strikes per minute and absorbs 4.19 per minute. Jojua lands 2.53 per minute but absorbs 4.86 per minute. However, Jojua can get takedowns and averages 1.49 per 15 at 66% success rate. Casey only has a 38% defense, so the opening is there, but I think Casey should be able to get her hand raised.
Sean Woodson defeats Collin Anglin Result: Woodson by KO/TKO (2-2)
Another fight, another massive reach advantage, this time in the favor of Sean Woodson. Woodson has the striking advantage. He lands more strikes than Anglin and absorbs less. Anglin will need to wrestle, which he does well. He lands his takedowns at an 80% rate, but Woodson defends at an 81% rate, which should be enough for him to win on the feet.
Andrea Lee defeats Cynthia Calvillo Result: Lee by KO/TKO (3-2)
This fight seems pretty even to me. Lee lands more per minute and absorbs less per minute than Calvillo on the feet and has a 5 inch reach advantage, so as long as it's standing, the fight seems to favor her. Calvillo averages 1.77 takedowns per 15 and lands them at a 44% rate. Lee defends at 57%, but also averages 1.95 takedowns per 15 herself. I think Lee has more ways to win and will find a way to get 2 of the 3 rounds in this one.
Thiago Moises defeats Joel Alvarez Result: Alvarez by KO/TKO (3-3)
Not sure what to make of this one. Alvarez has a 7 inch reach advantage, but his striking stats aren't tremendous, but neither are Moises'. Both fighters throw less than 3 strikes per minute and absorb over 3 a minute. Moises has better grappling credentials despite being controlled by Islam Makhachev his last time out. Alvarez has never landed or defended a takedown in the UFC according to their stats. Alvarez missing weight tilts the scales enough for me to lean Moises here.
Song Yadong defeats Julio Arce Result: Yadong by KO/TKO (4-3)
Again, both fighters are pretty even here. Yadong is a little more active on the feet and lands with more accuracy, but Arce has better defense and gets hit less. Arce isn't as active or accurate, but doesn't take nearly as much damage. Neither really lands takedowns, so I don't expect that to start now. I'll go with Yadong because he has faced the tougher competition recently with wins over Marlon Vera and Casey Kenney.
Khaos Williams defeats Miguel Baeza Result: Williams by KO/TKO (5-3)
This fight was more interesting than I expected when I look at the numbers. Baeza lands 5.30 strikes per minute and Williams lands 5.20 per minute. However, Baeza absorbs 5.09 a minute and williams only 3.59. Neither wants to get a takedown and Williams has the reach advantage. Taking that much damage against someone with the power of Williams doesn't sound like a recipe for success.
Leah Letson defeats Felicia Spencer Result: Spencer by KO/TKO (5-4)
I really don't like this fight. Letson is coming off of a long layoff and wasn't that experienced to begin with, but it's not like Spencer has a ton of experience either. Letson has better striking numbers with the reach advantage. Neither will look to land a takedown, so that's not a factor. Letson has a positive strike differential per minute, while spencer absorbs over 2 more strikes per minute than she lands, so I feel like I have to go with Letson.
Ben Rothwell defeats Marcos Rogerio de Lima Result: de Lima by KO/TKO (5-5)
Another tough one to predict. Rogerio has the better stats in the grappling and the better efficiency numbers in the striking, but I just feel like Rothwell is the better fighter. All of de Lima's wins have come against people either not in the UFC anymore or who won't likely be there much longer. All of his fights against UFC veterans and recognizable names have been losses. I have to lean on the experience of Rothwell in this one.
Max Holloway defeats Yair Rodriguez Result: Holloway by decision (6-5)
Max Holloway is one of the 15 best pound for pound fighters in the entire UFC. He's only ever lost to Alex Volkanovski, Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor, and Dennis Bermudez. As great as I think Rodriguez is, asking him to beat max after he's been away for more than 2 years isn't something I can reasonably expect him to do in this one.
Well, that's it for this one. A little bit of a shorter card this week, which I definitely appreciate when it comes to writing these. These posts take the most out of me in terms of the time, research, and navigation required. Hopefully I'll have a better week than last. Enjoy the fights and I'll be back to update my record and fill in the results after the event. Have a good weekend everybody.
UPDATE:
Well, another mediocre week. Letson over Spencer was probably me trying too hard to be smart looking back on it. Besides that, it felt like every fight I was on the fence about went against me. The only miss that really surprised me was Diakiese, I thought he was just the better fighter in that one. Went against Alvarez after he missed weight and that didn't work out for me either. Have to get back on track next week.
Year to date: 18-10
This Week: 6-5
New yearly record: 24-15
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