Alright, this is the week we get back on track. Today is the day of UFC Vegas 43 with Miesha Tate vs Ketlen Vieira serving as the main event. This is my standard, scheduled weekly post where I make a pick for every fight on the card and the last two weeks have been mediocre. I'm staying over .500 every week, but the expectation is higher than that. I feel decent this week and my record definitely needs it. I always say this isn't a betting guide per se as there's no odds taken into consideration when I make my picks and there's no props or anything of the sort. However, if you're looking to just bet on each fight outright, then this is what you're looking for. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's get into this weeks card.
Luana Pinheiro defeats Sam Hughes Result: Pinheiro by decision (1-0)
Pinheiro should get this win as she's the better all around fighter. Hughes absorbs more strikes than she lands and has never landed a takedown, while only defending them at a 44% rate. Pinheiro lands over 5 strikes a minute and according to the UFC stats averages 10.61 takedowns per 15 minutes. Hughes is 0-2 in the UFC with her last loss coming to Loma Lookboonme after losing to Tecia Torres in her short notice debut.
Sean Soriano defeats Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Result: Nuerdanbieke by decision (1-1)
Tough one to call here. Shayilan didn't look good on the feet in his UFC debut and the stats suggest as much. He needs to get this fight to the ground and Soriano has a takedown defense of 53%, with Shayiland only landing takedowns at a 14% rate. Soriano has been submitted more than a few times so if it does go to the ground, that may be enough for a Shayilan win, but I'll take Soriano to get it done standing.
Aori Qileng defeats Cody Durden Result: Durden by decision (1-2)
The odds have Durden as the favorite, but I see it differently. Aori Qileng lost a crazy fight to Jeff Molina previously, but his striking looked decent for the most part. He took a lot of damage, but he also dished out a lot. Durden also absorbs more than he lands, but with less activity. Durden gets 3.28 takedowns per 15, but Aori Qileng has 100% takedown defense. Qileng gets 3.00 takedowns per 15, but Durden only defends at a 50% rate. I think Aori Qileng gets it done.
Terrance McKinney defeats Fares Ziam Result: Cancelled due to covid
This should be a close one. Both fighters don't land a lot of strikes per minute and absorb even less. I believe McKinney has the power advantage and also the wrestling advantage, with 4.33 takedowns per 15. Ziam has pretty solid takedown defense at 68% but I think McKinney can do enough.
Loma Lookboonme defeats Loopy Godinez Result: Godinez by decision (1-3)
As much as I want to pick Loopy, I can't here. This fight hinges on Loma's ability to stay standing and I think she can with her 76% takedown defense and Loopy's 33% takedown rate. Loopy absorbs more strikes than she lands and Loma, while she doesn't have a ton of power, lands over 5 strikes per minute and absorbs just over 3. I think Loma keeps it standing and beats Loopy with volume.
Natan Levy defeats Rafa Garcia Result: Garcia by decision (1-4)
Both of these fighters want to get it to the ground and both have 100% takedown defense. It says Levy lands 100% of his takedowns, but I believe it only counts his contender series appearance. Garcia only lands 33% of his. Levy doesn't have reliable stats for the striking, but does land more than he absorbs. Garcia absorbs over 6 a minute, but lands over 4. Levy is way more active with his submissions and I think that could be the difference in this one.
Tucker Lutz defeats Pat Sabatini Result: Sabatini by decision (1-5)
Another close one, but I'll lean Lutz. Sabatini lands less than 2 strikes per minute, but also doesn't absorb much damage. Lutz absorbs more at over 3 strikes per minute but lands over 5 of his own. Sabatini gets less than 1 takedown per 15 at only 16% and Lutz has 84% takedown defense while getting over 2 takedowns per 15 himself.
Adrian Yanez defeats Davey Grant Result: Yanez by decision (2-5)
Yanez has shown real skills on the feet landing over 6 strikes a minute and while he absorbs a lot, we saw his chin hold up against Randy Costa. Davey Grant is extremely tough and won't go away easily and has real power and skill on the feet himself. Grant has some takedown ability and gets them at a 46% clip, but Yanez has 100% takedown defense to keep it standing. I like Yanez's slick counter striking to get the best of Grant.
Kyung Ho Kang defeats Rani Yahya Result: Yahya by decision (2-6)
Both fighters will want this fight to be on the mat to look for submissions. Kang gets his takedowns at a higher percentage and also defends takedowns at a higher percentage. Kang also has a massive reach advantage and better striking numbers if it stays standing for any period of time.
Taila Santos defeats Joanne Wood Result: Santos by sub (3-6)
I'm going to lean Santos here, but I think it could be closer than the odds suggest. Wood has the volume striking advantage, but also takes more damage. Santos doesn't land as much, but also absorbs way less and I think she has the power advantage to go with it. Santos will likely have the wrestling advantage in terms of both offense and defense. I think she's just slightly better with more ways to win.
Sean Brady defeats Michael Chiesa Result: Brady by decision (4-6)
This one hurts because I like Michael Chiesa. Brady has 100% takedown defense and we know how reliant Chiesa is on getting the fight down. If it stays standing for any extended period, Brady will have a huge advantage. Even if it does go down, Brady is no slouch. My one worry is if we will see Brady tire due to Chiesa's pace and pressure if we see the fight get into the back half of the 2nd round and 3rd round.
Miesha Tate defeats Ketlen Vieira Result: Vieira by decision (4-7)
I'll go with Tate due to her experience. Both fighters want the fight on the mat, but I think Tate has better submissions if it goes there. Miesha looked improved on the feet in her return fight earlier this year. Vieira has had some road bumps when she's gotten a step up in competition and I think that's what we'll see happen again unfortunately for her.
That's it guys. This week is going to be better, I can feel it. I'll add up my new record below after the card is finished. I'm not sure how much I'll be posting next week due to Thanksgiving, but we'll see. If you're in the United States and celebrating, have a good holiday and safe travels, if you're from overseas, then enjoy your week as you normally would. Have a good one and enjoy the fights. Let me know below if you're riding with me or fading my picks. Leave your entire card picks below too.
UPDATE: Let's just hope this is rock bottom. So many fights were a coinflip and I got basically all of them wrong. I think the week off is coming at the right time for me. Just need to reset and get back to work for Font vs Aldo. Have to finish the year strong in December.
Weekly Record: 4-7
Year to Date: 24-15
New Yearly Record: 28-22
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